Westport Selectwoman Jen Tooker is the first declared candidate in the Republican primary for Governor.
Overlook
We are more than 17 months away from the 2026 primary night in Connecticut. Despite this, one candidate has already entered the race, and many more have set up exploratory committees. Exploratory committees allow candidates to raise money and determine the viability of a campaign. Though not officially running, some candidates will eventually transition to a full campaign committee.
The Connecticut Republican Party
It has been a rough past election cycle for the Connecticut Republican Party. Though the Republican Party has made gains across the country thanks to the victory of President Donald Trump, the Connecticut Republican Party hasn’t made similar gains.
Republicans in 2016 came close to capturing the State Legislature. The State Senate came to a power-sharing agreement after an 18-18 tie occurred. The State House was narrowly held by Democrats 80-71. This is when Hillary Clinton won the state by 13.6 points in her 2016 Presidential Run. In 2024, despite Kamala Harris winning the state by a similar, but better 14.5 points, the Democrats enjoy a wide and large margin in both the State House and State Senate. The State House is currently 102D-51R, and the State Senate is 25D-11R. The Democrats hold supermajorities in both chambers.
The GOP and the Governorship
The strongest office for the State GOP has historically been the governorship. Former Governor John Rowland (R) was governor from 1995 to his resignation in 2004 due to a corruption scandal that led to prison time. The party’s hold on the governorship was saved by the popular late Governor Jodi Rell who won a landslide victory in 2006 after succeeding Rowland to the governorship. Rell was popular thanks to her accomplishments with investments in the state’s railways, highways, and ports. She also restructured the state’s landmark campaign finance reforms and made a 100 million dollar investment into stem cell treatment. She did not run for re-election in 2010, leaving office in 2011.
Despite the Late Former Governor’s popularity and the 2010 GOP Wave, Democrats narrowly gained the governorship by less than 7,000 votes. This was two years after Former President Barack Obama carried the state in a 22-point landslide.
According to The Downballot, Republicans have not held any statewide office other than the governorship since former Treasurer Christopher Burnham won his position in 1994.
Official Candidates
Westport Selectwoman Jen Tooker announced her run for governor two weeks ago. Her campaign is planning to focus on issues such as fiscal responsibility, economic growth, and government accountability. In her announcement, Tooker said, “For too long, Connecticut families and businesses have been burdened by high taxes, rising costs, and a state government that lacks accountability”.
Tooker, a moderate, is focusing on fiscal issues and taxes. The Westport Selectwoman won her 2021 election by less than a point. This is also her first run for statewide office.
Tooker’s narrow but impressive win in her 2021 race for Selectwoman
This narrow win was impressive as Westport has voted solidly Democratic on the federal level, voting for Kamala Harris by an almost 50-point margin (71-27).
Candidates Who Have Set up Exploratory Committees
Erin Stewart
Erin Stewart announces her run at New Britain City Hall on Jan. 28th, 2024. Credit to CT Public Radio
Erin Stewart, the longtime Mayor of New Britain, announced she set up a committee in January after noting last year she would not run for another term as mayor. She is highly likely to enter the race. Stewart won the position in 2013 against Democratic Incumbent Tim O’Brien. She was one of the youngest mayors in the state when she won her mayorship.
Similar to Selectwoman Tooker, Stewart has been able to win seats in deep-blue towns despite their party affiliation. Due to this, they would likely run in similar lanes as candidates. Stewart has won more than 60% of the vote in her last two mayoral runs, despite New Britain being solidly blue at all other levels of government.
Stewart is running a more cautious and more prepared approach to her campaign compared to her previous statewide run. In 2018, Stewart announced a late run for governor. Unprepared and facing a very large competitive field, she opted to drop down to a run for Lieutenant Governor where she placed 2nd. Stewart has noted in interviews that she learned from that experience.
Peter Lumaj and Matthew Corey
Two other candidates have set up exploratory committees. Both are well-versed in Connecticut campaigns. Peter Lumaj, who was the 2014 nominee for Treasurer and lost the 2022 Republican primary for senate, formed an exploratory committee last month for a statewide office. Though Lumaj came close in what was a good year for Republicans in 2014, losing 47-51 for Secretary of State. His poor performance in 2022 and multiple other statewide runs have not established him as a likely nominee as of this posting.
Matthew Corey, a small business owner, and US Navy Veteran, recently lost a campaign for the Senate to Democratic Incumbent Chris Murphy. He also has formed an exploratory committee. Corey did do marginally better this time around compared to his 2018 senate run by the smallest of margins. He got 39.4% in his 2018 run (losing by 20.1%), and 39.6% in his 2024 run (losing by 19.9%).
Corey though also has not been a serious candidate for office. He benefited in the primary last year running in a low turnout primary and the state GOP did not target the Senate race at all last year placing all of their resources on the race in the 5th Congressional District. Though he and Lumaj are more conservative than Tooker and Stewart, which could benefit them in a primary, his also sub-par performance for two cycles likely does not make him either a likely nominee. However things could change over the following year.
It is important to note that just because a candidate has formed an exploratory committee, it does not mean the candidate will enter the race.
The Problem of Being Moderate or Conservative?
Other candidates could enter such as businessman Bob Stefanowski, who lost his previous two runs in 2018 and 2022, to Governor Ned Lamont. The field faces many questions and difficulties. Foremost, navigating the divide between the party’s more moderate establishment and its conservative base.
Candidates like Tooker and Stewart are better positioned to appeal to the general electorate, given their past success in winning local office in deep-blue areas. However, winning the Republican primary is a different challenge. Connecticut’s closed primary system means only registered Republicans can vote, and the party’s most engaged voters tend to be more conservative. In addition, this group of voters will be hesitant on candidates who are not only moderate but have to prove their Republican bonafide. This creates a balancing act: a candidate must embrace enough conservative positions to secure the nomination while maintaining a broad appeal for a statewide general election in a state where Trump lost by around 15 points.
Stewart seems to know that, considering she is comparing herself more to Trump and mentioning that she voted for him all three times. These are two things, she likely hasn’t been mentioning as much in her past mayoral runs in her deep blue city. But neither candidate will make the general election without talking about Trump. Trump is the Republican Party, and Republican Primary voters in Connecticut love Trump and expect the candidates will as well.
State Party Endorsement
Candidates like Tooker and Stewart also will compete for the state party’s endorsement. Candidates with their moderate establishment reputations are usually favored but the Connecticut GOP has not had a great track record in recent endorsements for statewide office.
In 2022, The State GOP gave their senate endorsement to State House Minority Leader Themis Klarides who was favored to win the primary to go up against Democratic Incumbent Richard Blumenthal. However, days before the primary, President Donald Trump gave his endorsement to the more conservative Businesswoman Leora Levy, who ended up beating Klarides 51-40. Klarides also made the mistake of mentioning she hadn’t voted for Trump in 2020, which might have caused President Trump to get involved in the first place.
Similarly, in 2024, Beacon Falls Selectman Gerry Smith decided to run against Democratic Incumbent Chris Murphy for his senate seat. He was the only notable candidate in the race until Murphy’s 2018 opponent Matthew Corey made the ballot at the GOP convention forcing a primary. Corey benefited from name recognition in a low-turnout Republican primary in August beating Smith 55-45, but lost by a similar margin to Murphy in 2018, losing by about 20 points.
Overview
This means the state GOP might not have as much pull in deciding who gets the nomination. It will be up to the Republican primary voters. Westport Selectwoman Jen Tooker is the only one in the race officially. New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart and Businessmen Peter Lumaj and Matthew Corey have formed committees for plausible campaigns. Many more could plausibly enter. We still have 17 months to go, and a lot can change. Candidates we will have to figure out the balance between conservative positions to win the nomination, and the appearance of moderation to win the election. We will have to wait and see!