Governor Ned Lamont presented his State of the State Address to the CT Legislature on Jan 8th, 2025. Credit to CT Mirror

Ned Lamont faces a challenging decision in his future political career. Lamont and six other incumbent governors around the country could be seeking their third (or fourth) four-year terms leading their respective states. But what will Governor Lamont decide to do?

A Brief Look At Lamont’s Political History

Lamont, a long-time figure in Connecticut politics, started his career as Greenwich Selectman in 1987. He served for one term. In 1990, he lost an entertaining three-way race for a state senate seat won by then-State Rep. William Nickerson (R-Greenwich). Lamont served on various boards in Greenwich over the following decade.

Lamont gathered national attention after beating the late Senator Joe Liberman in a Democratic primary (52-48) in 2006. Running as an anti-Iraq war candidate, and against Liberman’s more conservative leanings, Lamont shocked the nation, leading Lieberman to be the only incumbent senator to lose renomination that year. As many know, Lieberman won the race as a third-party candidate, holding his seat for a fourth and final term.

After the loss, Lamont sought the Democratic nomination for Governor in 2010. He lost to the eventual winner, Stamford Mayor Dannel Malloy, who upset Lamont 57-43.

In 2018, Governor Dannel Malloy announced he wouldn’t run for a third term, Lamont tried to secure the nomination for a second time. He was successful, easily defeating Bridgeport Mayor Joe Ganim 81-18. After a tight general election, Lamont overcame Malloy’s unpopularity while benefiting from the 2018 blue wave, defeating fellow businessman Bob Stefanowski 49-46. In a 2022 rematch, Governor Lamont beat Stefanowski more comfortably winning 56-43.

History of Running for a 3rd Term

Multiple governors around the country are debating running for a third or fourth term leading their state. Republican Governor Greg Abbott of Texas already announced he would run for a fourth term. His fellow Republicans, Kim Reynolds (IA) and Brad Little(ID), are eligible for a third term. Lamont’s Democratic colleagues, Tim Walz (MN), JB Pritzker (IL), and Tony Evers (WI), are also mulling third-term runs. Phil Scott (VT) is eligible for a sixth term as Governor, though term lengths are only two years in Vermont.

The phenomenon of governors in power for over a decade was uncommon in previous centuries. Dr. Eric Ostermeier at the University of Minnesota comments that factors such as “electoral laws, traditions, and, perhaps, voter weariness” meant fewer governors had the option to win three or more terms leading their state. Term lengths varied around the country for centuries. In Connecticut, a Governor’s term length was one year (if you didn’t think election season wasn’t stressful enough) before expanding to two years in 1876 and four years in 1950.

Connecticut, one of the 13 states with no term limits, is no stranger to third-term elected governors. Disgraced Former Governor John Rowland won his third term in 2002, winning by 12 points to Democratic nominee former Comptroller Bill Curry. Rowland did not finish his term after resigning due to corruption charges in 2004.

In the modern era, no governor of Connecticut has run for and completed a third four-year term. Over 200 years ago, Jonathan Trumbull led the state as governor for 14 years (though seven were as Colonial Governor) from 1769 to 1784. His son, Jonathan Trumbull Jr, has the official title of longest-serving Governor of Connecticut, from December 1st, 1797 to his death on August 7th, 1808. Luckily for Lamont, unlike the 1800s, he does not have to face voters every single year.

What Issues does Lamont Face?

Gov. Ned Lamont at the governor’s residence in Hartford in 2020. Credit to CT Mirror.

Lamont won’t likely decide to run until (at the earliest) the end of Connecticut’s legislative session in early June.

The biggest complaint among state legislators about Lamont is his fiscal guardrails on the budget. Lamont, a noted fiscal moderate, has been unwilling to spend the surplus budget on other needs. In addition, Lamont does not want to increase the spending cap, noting that ignorance of the cap led the state to a rough financial shape in the 2010s. Connecticut was in financial trouble throughout the 2010s, leading to the deep unpopularity of former Gov. Dan Malloy, whose approval rating was one of the lowest in the country.

Legislative leaders, on the other hand, noted the state will end the fiscal year with a 1.7 billion dollar surplus. Lamont does not want to touch that fund, despite the need for funds in public education.

Despite those arguments with the legislature, with a 65% approval rating, Lamont is the sixth most popular governor in the country (second among Democrats). Unlike his neighbor governors, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) and Gov. Dan McKee (D-RI), he doesn’t face any substantial primary threats if he decides to run for a third term. Hochul and McKee face low approval ratings and likely Democratic challengers in 2026.

Lamont’s plausible successors, including Lieutenant Gov. Susan Bysiewicz, Attorney General William Tong, and Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, have said they’ll defer to Lamont if he runs for a third term. Some, including Tong, Bronin, and State Comptroller Sean Scalon, have encouraged Lamont to seek a third term. Bysiewicz has made it no secret that she would run for governor if Lamont doesn’t run and has asked for commitments in support from many leaders around the state (just in case he doesn’t run).

Lamont’s approval rating was in the 30s before the COVID-19 pandemic. One of his priorities was bringing back tolls into the state. This did not help him with voters. His handling of the pandemic was generally seen as successful, allowing his approval rating to increase to the 60s. In addition, the state’s fiscal guardrails were successful in helping the state’s finances, one of Lamont’s biggest accomplishments as leader of the state.

In November, the governor picked Danbury Mayor Roberto Alves as the leader of the state Democratic party. The pick was seen as 1. Lamont is focused on bringing back the urban vote for the Democratic party, which has been declining in recent elections. 2. Lamont’s continued focus on success for the party is plausible evidence that he will run for a third term. Alves is also not close to any possible successors, giving Lamont more leeway on his decision.

Lamont has also chased higher office for over a decade, from his Senate loss in 2006 to his win as Governor in 2018. He doesn’t seem to be slowing down, despite turning 71 earlier this year.

Though post-2024 election of primary voters may be more weary of older politicians, as Lamont would be 73 in a second term, the governor doesn’t face any signs of a primary challenge. Primary challenges in Connecticut are also notoriously difficult due to ballot laws and are exceedingly rare. Lamont’s popularity and all his plausible competitors’ deference to him place him in a strong spot.

Final Prediction

I believe Lamont will run for a third term, but only Ned Lamont can make that decision, and we will find out soon enough.