Rep. John Larson at a Press Conference. Source Peoples

Overview

A quiet beginning to the election season in Connecticut came to an end after the state legislature ended its session on June 5th. Ned Lamont’s vetoes of a housing bill angered state progressives and much of the caucus. Over the July 4th Weekend, State Rep. Josh Elliott has opened up an exploratory committee, but seems ready to launch a primary campaign against the two-term incumbent Governor.

Also over the weekend, longtime Congressman John Larson (CT-01) received a primary challenge from Hartford Board of Education member Ruth Fortune.

Old Prediction

In my March article, I predicted that Ned Lamont would likely run for a 3rd term, and that he doesn’t seem to face a strong primary challenge. Turns out I was half right.

Lamont looks like he will run for a third term, but hasn’t conclusively stated he will run. However, I was incorrect in my lack of a strong primary challenger. I was correct in stating his fiscal moderation was his biggest vulnerability; well, the tension has broken completely and the state’s progressive faction seems to be ready for a battle against the incumbent governor. I didn’t expect it would come to fruition, but we will have to see how the race develops.

Governor

in June, Lamont vetoed bill HB 5002, a landmark housing bill. Lamont noted he wanted more “buy-in” from local communities before the bill could be passed, likely at a special session later in the fall. He noted his dislike on some of the parking provisions that were in the bill . Some local leaders disliked the bill, though the bill received widespread support in the Democratic caucus after months of negotiating.

The usually calm state Democratic caucus was not happy. State legislative leaders were certain that the bill would pass and Lamont would sign it. It was a surprising pushback for the largest housing bill the state has passed in years. Lamont also vetoed Senate Bill 8, a bill that would provided jobless benefits to strikers in Connecticut. This veto was expected, but also increased tension with state leaders.

The criticism of Lamont’s moderate polices on housing and finances has long been a criticism hurled at him. However, at a time when the base of the Democratic Party is looking for change at leadership, Lamont who has been in office since 2018 is seen at staying the same, and not in fighting shape.

This change in leadership and people in power came in a powerful shift late last month in New York City, where State Rep. Zohran Mamdani won the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City against political titan and longtime former Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Mamdani, without a doubt, inspired some primary challenges, as there seemed to be some evidence of a base willing to make a drastic change. It didn’t help the perception of Lamont when he said, after being pressed by a reporter, that he would have ranked Andrew Cuomo first on his ballot.

Many state progressives note that they want someone fighting Trump strongly, and with polices that better reflect the Democratic base of the state. Lamont’s adherence to taxes on millionaires (he himself is very wealthy), and his insistence of keeping the state’s fiscal constrains despite funding decreasing in many sectors of the state’s economy.

State Rep. Anne Hughes (D-Easton) shares the sentiment, saying the ” party needs a more aggressive approach to a Trump administration that she says is promoting “a police state” and dismantling the social safety net, and there is a desire for generational change.” She additionally explained, “The governor doesn’t understand the urgency”.

The Challenger to the Governor

Rep. Josh Elliott at Best Video Film and Cultural Center in Hamden. Credit to Madeline Papcun / CT Mirror

State Rep. Josh Elliot (D-Hamden), deputy speaker of the Democratic caucus, opened an exploratory campaign on Tuesday, but has announced an official campaign launch for Monday, July 14th at 1 pm in front of Hamden Town Hall.

Rep. Elliott had an op-ed a few weeks ago announcing that the governor will not go unchallenged at the next election. It was unknown at the time of his op-ed if Elliott was the one too take on the challenge, but the time has come and he decided he is in. His platform won’t be known in detail for at least a few weeks, but he is expected to give some of his positions to the left of the governor on Housing and Taxes.

Rep. Elliott will definitely have some allies in his uphill battle against Governor Lamont. Two of his colleagues, State Sen. Saud Anwar (D-South Windsor) and State Rep. Nick Gauthier (D- Waterford) have both released op-eds discouraging Lamont from running for a 3rd term (Anwar’s op-ed here and Gauthier’s op-ed here). This public act of rejection against Lamont shows that Elliott will have some support in the legislature. The scale of this will be hard to tell until his challenge is more cemented.

Elliott a member the state’s 88th Assembly district in Hamden came to office when challenging than speaker State Rep. Joseph Brendan Sharkey (D-Hamden). Sharkey did not end up running for reelection and Elliott won the open seat. This is not the first time Elliott has aimed at higher office; he attempted a run for Secretary of State in 2022, though he dropped out at the convention after State Rep. Stephanie Thomas won the party endorsement. Elliott’s seat is very liberal. Kamala Harris won the district 70-28 in 2024.

He argues that Lamont doesn’t have what it needs to face Connecticut’s crisis and issues. “We have a housing crisis he blithely ignores, and he is so focused on the state budget he ignores the fact that people’s property taxes are skyrocketing. CCM is screaming about this.” Lamont welcomed him to the race on Tuesday noting “he’s a nice guy” and “welcome to the race“. So Lamont clearly does not seem too worried, and said this won’t change when he makes a decision on running for a 3rd term likely later in the summer or early fall.

What to Expect in the Governor’s Race

With no public polling, it is hard to say how Lamont will fare defending his record. Taking out an incumbent governor in Connecticut in a primary has not been attempted in recent memory.

State Rep. Josh Elliott has a long way to go to make his case to the voters. He does have at his disposal an energetic base that will likely be on his side. He is however not well to voters, and holds low name ID.

Elliott also needs to raise a lot of money to compete with Lamont who has spent his large fortune on his statewide campaigns. The Democratic base of the state would need to come to his aid. Elliott does likely benefit in a hypothetically closed-primary race, as more partsians might be more appealed to his campaign than the 40% of state voters who aren’t registered to either party.

Elliott also has to commit to a full run. It is not guaranteed that he will stay in the race to the ballot. He explained that Lamont will not go unchallenged, but rhetoric vs ballot are different things. Elliott could be gauging interest in a run, but could easily run for another term in the legislature by the state convention next year if he decides too. He did the same thing during his attempt at Secretary of State in 2022. He also notes that, unlike Andrew Cuomo, “… Ned is a nice guy and is really likable”.

Lamont, however, has been etched into the minds of Nutmeggers since his upset primary victory over Former Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) in 2006. Though he lost the general election, and lost a close primary in 2010 for Governor to Dan Malloy, eventually getting the nomination in 2018 easily over Bridgeport Mayor Joe Ganim. Lamont also has a record of some progressive wins to help him defend himself, but his age and the changing Democratic base leave him vulnerable. Lamont will also have multiple statewide members endorse him, including many leaders. Though he will need to reveal his plans for a 3rd term to show a vision he has for the state.

However, it should be noted that Lamont is still popular. The state is not exactly known for electing progressive democrats to statewide office and is well known for its political establishment. The state has been famously in the center of the Democratic party, despite Democrats having a stronghold of power across the state. His fiscal moderation has changed the state’s finances dramatically to a much better place.

If this challenge convinces Lamont to retire, then we got a wide-open race, and would have a long list of challengers, including multiple statewide officeholders.

Lamont who is essentially the only person to have been on the ballot against an incumbent Democrat for federal office in recent memory will have to get back his base of voters if he wants a third-term.

At a time of uncertainty and numerous political challengers, it is definitely time for everyone to pay attention to your local offices, as a lot can and will happen.

Lamont is heavily favored in a primary, but we have to see what happens.

CT-01

Far less dramatically, over the 4th of July weekend, Longtime Democratic Rep. John Larson received a primary challenge from Hartford Board of Education member Ruth Fortune.

Fortune’s challenge to Larson was seen as a surprise to the man who appointed her to the Board of Education last year, Hartford Mayor Arunan Arunanpalam. “Somebody texted me about it,” Arulampalam said. “I was surprised. It was the first I heard.”

In a summary from the publication, the Downballot, Larson’s last few months in office have been up and down. Larson recieved attention earlier in the year after suffering from a “complex partial seizure” on the house floor in Feburary. He got positive coverage a month later for a speech where he denounced Elon Musk. And again a second episode in April of a seizure the coverage went negative again.

Fortune told CT Mirror’s Mark Panikoas that she has nothing against Larson persay, just that “my reasons for running are my reasons for running” and “I want to bring my voice, my lived experiences, my fierce advocacy, and really try to do as much as I can to support people as they try to aspire to whatever it is that their dream is and their goals are.”

Fortune has no elective experience, but an interesting personal story . She arrived to the US as a tourists, and became an undocumented immigrant from Haiti. She is a graduate of the University of Connecticut Law School and is currently an associate at Wiggin & Dana, specializing as a Trust and Estate Lawyer. She currently lives in the West End of Hartford with her spouse and three children. She testified to the legislature in 2016 in favor of financial aid for undocumented students noting how it helped her as a young immigrant for a better future. More of her story can be found from Mark Pazniokas’s article at the CT Mirror, found here.

How Fortune intends to beat the longtime representative. we will have to wait and she currently has no campaign website or positions. But as a resident of the district, I’m curious what kind of angle she will take on against the longterm incumbent, and how she will raise money.

CT-03

Immigration Attorney Damjan DeNoble filed against incumbent Democrat Rosa DeLauro in the state’s 3rd district. DeLauro, a powerful Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, has received some attention as she will 83 during her re-election.

DeNoble told the CT Mirror that he would have a website and video announcement out next week. He is a New Haven-based attorney, and currently lives in Guilford with his wife and three kids. He interestingly noted that his campaign strength is going to be media. He will definitely need it against someone whose been part of state politics for 30 years and is one of the most powerful Democrats in Congress. I’m interested to see how his campaign goes, he seems committed based on the interview, but it’s a huge uphill battle.

Similar to Ruth Fortune in the first district, he didn’t have criticisms of DeLauro specifically, but talked more about passing the torch to the next generation. DeNoble who is 40, is less than half DeLauro’s age. Similar to Larson’s campaign, DeLauro’s campaign manager said they welcome anyone who wants to run for a seat.

DeNoble had criticisms about the Democratic’s party branding and believes someone younger can do better “whole bunch of things that need to be done to bring our democratic system in balance and lower the temperature”.

Both Rep. Larson and Rep. DeLauro have never faced a primary challenger on the ballot during their entire tenures in Congress since their first victories (DeLauro 1990, Larson 1998).

CT-02, CT-05

Even more under the table, everyone but Rep. Jim Himes (CT-04) has a primary challenge on paper. But severely underfunded challenges don’t spell upset against longterm incumbents.

Jackson Taddeo-Waite of the town of Washington has filed for a primary against Incumbent 5th District Congresswoman Jahana Hayes. Kyle Gauck of the town of East Hampton has filed for a primary against Incumbent 2nd District Congressman Joe Courtney.

Filings are not perfect in saying a candidate is officially against an incumbent. And many of these challenges are on paper, with minimal funds and no campaign websites to speak of. Until that, we will refrain from going further here until these challengers rise a bit in prominence and/or funds. New people can also jump in so we will have to see what happens.

With the level of enthusiasm for challengers against longterm incumbents, it is possible that the state delegation, which has 3 members over the age of 72, receives at least one challenger on the ballot. But none of the challengers to members of Congress have our full attention yet, we will stay glued to the news for new developments, and if anyone raises enough money for a proper challenge.