Rep. Josh Elliott celebrates at the state Democratic Convention, Saturday, May 16, 2026, in Hartford, Conn. Credit to: Jessica Hill / CT Mirror

Overview

Welcome to the CT Election Guide’s August 11th Ultimate Primary Guide.

In Part 1 of the guide, I will cover statewide and congressional primaries. In Part 2, I will cover primaries in the state legislature.

There are four primaries to cover. We will start with the Democratic primaries for Governor and the 1st Congressional Distrct. Governor Ned Lamont and Rep. John Larson face challengers for renomination. Than we will cover two Republican primaries where Republican challengers hope to challenge Democratic incumbents in the 4th and 5th Congressional Districts

I will also give a rating for each race and a prediction of who I think will emerge victorious on the 11th. There are several competitive races on the ballot, so expect some fascinating results.

Let’s get started!

Voting Information

Per state rules, Connecticut is a closed primary state. This means only registered voters of that party can vote in a primary election on August 11th. In Connecticut, a plurality of voters are registered unaffiliated (about 42.2% as of 2025); that proportion of state voters will be unable to vote in the election. However, unaffiliated voters have until August 10th at noon to register with a party, if they plan to vote on primary day.

If a voter wants to switch parties to vote in a primary (From Democratic to Republican, or vice versa), they had to do so by May 11th. If a voter wanted to vote during early voting and they are unaffiliated, they had until July 31st at Noon. A new voter can file a voter application in person with the registrar of voters in their town by noon on the business day prior to the day they want to vote.

In Connecticut, only contested primaries take place on the ballot. If a race is uncontested, there is no primary in that district. Due to a Democratic primary for Governor, every registered Democrat in the state can vote in the primary.

There are no statewide primaries for Republicans, as all statewide offices were decided at the May Convention, and no challengers met the requirements or attempted to force a primary. There are primaries in some congressional districts and legislative seats. If you’re a Registered Republican looking to vote, you can use this map to see if you live within the district boundaries. There are primaries in the 4th and 5th Congressional Districts, the 19th State Senate Seat, and the 50th and 71st State House Seats.

Early voting is available for this election. Early voting takes place from August 3rd to August 9th. Extended voting hours will take place on the 4th and 6th.

Monday, August 3rd – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Tuesday, August 4th – 8:00 am to 8:00 pm
Wednesday, August 5th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Thursday, August 6th – 8:00 am to 8:00 pm
Friday, August 7th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Saturday, August 8th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Sunday, August 9th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm

Voters must vote in the assigned early voting location for their town of voter registration. The list of early voting locations can be found here. The majority of the early voting locations are in Town Hall, community centers, or the library.

Absentee ballots are also available for this election. One can request a ballot at the online portal here. Starting this cycle, after a 2024 voting referendum passed, voters no longer need to provide a specific excuse to vote in any election. Voters can request an absentee ballot for any reason. If voters need a paper application for an absentee ballot, use this link and scroll down to print a paper application. The deadline to request an absentee ballot is August 10th.

If you need to hand out an absentee ballot application to someone, please follow the state’s strict rules concerning this action. There are limits on who you can get an absentee ballot application for (immediate family), and the number of ballots you can request.

CT Election Guide Race Rating System

These ratings represent my assessment of each race based on available polling, fundraising, endorsements, campaign activity, geographic strengths, and the overall political environment. They are forecasts—not guarantees—and races can shift before Election Day.

• Solid – Expected margin of 15% or more
• Likely – Expected margin of 8–15%
• Lean – Expected margin of 3–8%
• Toss-Up – Expected margin of less than 3%

Statewide Primaries

Governor – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Ned Lamont

Candidates: Gov. Ned Lamont (Inc.) vs State Rep. Josh Elliott

Type of Primary: Incumbent vs Challenger

2022 Election Result: Lamont +13 – Ned Lamont (D) – 56.0%, Bob Stefanowski (R) – 43.0%

2024 Presidential Results: Harris +14.5 – Kamala Harris (D) – 56.4%, Donald Trump (R) – 41.9%

2026 General Election Rating: Solid D

Background

On March 13th, 2006, a wealthy businessman from Greenwich, Ned Lamont, launched a primary campaign to challenge sitting Senator Joe Lieberman for his seat in the U.S Senate. Lieberman was heavily criticized for his support of the war in Iraq and his close relationship with President Bush at the time. This challenge would start the beginning of Ned Lamont’s prominent place in Connecticut politics.

Lamont’s candidacy at the time became more of a single-issue primary against the War, and Lamont was able to seize the progressive energy of the 2006 cycle, culminating in an upset win over Lieberman in the primary. He later lost the general election that November. Lamont was able to grasp the state’s progressive flank; his challenge to the left of Lieberman was notable in a state that rarely saw contested primaries against incumbents.

Now, two decades later, Lamont, the two-term governor, is attempting a third four-year term in this solidly Democratic state. Lamont now finds himself as part of the “establishment” facing the irony of being challenged to his left by State Rep. Josh Elliott (D-Hamden). The first primary against an incumbent Governor since 1978.

Who is Josh Elliott?

State Rep. Josh Elliott first came into the legislature after winning a seat in the legislature in 2016. Elliott holds a BA from Ithaca College and received a JD from Quinnipiac School of Law. He entered the race before House Speaker Brendan Sharkey announced his retirement. Elliott’s campaign says he is the reason he pushed Sharkey into retirement, which is prominently claimed on his website, though Sharkey disagrees with that assertion in strong terms.

Elliott is a founder of the Progressive caucus in the legislature, which has slowly grown over the last few cycles. Elliott has played a large role in supporting economic and labor protections. Two of the bills he sponsored were for Paid Family & Medical Leave and for Paid Sick Days. He has pushed for Connecticut to be the first state to remove the cost for incarcerated individuals to make phone calls to loved ones. He currently serves as Deputy Speaker and Majority Caucus Co-Chair.

This is not Josh Elliott’s first attempt at higher office. In 2022, Elliott ran for the open Secretary of State race. It did not go so well for him. He was the only candidate who failed to qualify for the ballot at the convention. Elliott was also running to maintain his seat in the legislature during that race. He bowed out, electing not to gather signatures to petition, and ran for re-election to his state house seat. Candidates returning to their state legislative seats around convention time when they don’t do well is common in Connecticut.

However, during Elliott’s second attempt for higher office. Elliott is simultaneously running for both his State House Seat (88th District) and the Governor’s Race. Elliott was noncommittal about his run for governor for most of the cycle. He at one point said he would only challenge Lamont only if he won the party endorsement at the convention, saying he didn’t want to run a Line B candidacy. Earlier this year, however, Elliott decided that he spent so much time on his campaign that he has to see it all the way. He also did not risk losing his House seat, something Elliott said is important to him to help make change in the state.

Elliott successfully raised the $335,000 needed to qualify for public financing. This qualified him for $3.75 million grant. He got the money about 5 weeks before the August primary, leaving him a quick turnaround to get his message on the airwaves. Though he was allowed to run for both his State House seat and Governor at the same time, he could not spend any of his grant money on his State House seat. To avoid any issues with campaign finance rules, Elliott hasn’t even formed a campaign committee for his State House Race, as he plans to spend no money. Elliott doesn’t face any Democratic opposition in the primary and was nominated for another term at the convention for his seat. Though he faces a Republican opponent, Elliott’s 88th State House Seat is one Kamala Harris won 70-28, so he doesn’t need to spend much of anything in the general.

Campaign Issues

Elliott’s campaign has been defined by anger towards Lamont’s refusal to tax the rich more. Progressive anger towards the Governor also increased when Lamont vetoed two bills during the 2025 legislative session. One on affordable housing, and another on benefits for striking workers. Elliott’s vowed that the Governor would face a challenge after those vetoes, and eventually he became the candidate to challenge the Governor. Lamont did pass a version of the affordable housing bill later in 2025, though some argue the bill wasn’t as strong as the initial one. Though many agreed it was still beneficial. Lamont did not pass the bill for striking workers.

Elliott has proposed a similar millionaire tax to Massachusetts, though at it’s core Elliott hopes for a “fair tax structure” that taxes those who make $1 million annually. Elliott also does not support the state’s fiscal guardrails, enacted in 2017 to force the state to pay down pension debt. He believes it should be changed to allow easier investments for infrastructure, investment, and housing. Elliott has also proposed less reliance on local property taxes.

One of Elliott’s more aggressive proposals is to take on Eversource by allowing towns to individually own their utility infrastructure. To allow a public option that can allow municipalities cheaper rates, or for towns to form or join electric utilities in an effort to cut Eversource’s power away. The governor has argued that this proposal will cost tens of billions of dollars that the state does not have.

Elliott has also attacked the Governor in more personal terms, saying “his campaign is where good ideas go to die”. He also has advertisements on air attacking Lamont’s wealth and how his family has been rich for generations. Due to his personal wealth, Elliott says Lamont cannot understand the state’s affordability. He also heavily critiqued the governor for taking credit for policies passed by the legislature, saying the Governor didn’t actually do anything. “That’s what a billionaire does. They take other people’s ideas and say ‘Well, this was his all along.’” Elliott said. He also called the Governor “dangerously naive” during the debate, and said Lamont’s campaign is the “Temu version” of his. Elliott did attack Lamont as a billionaire a few times, though the very wealthy Ned Lamont is not known as a billionaire specifically.

Ned Lamont spent the majority of the cycle ignoring Josh Elliott, trying to avoid pushing attention to his challenger. However, Elliott slowly gained some momentum and qualified for a primary with 25% of convention delegates. Lamont has had to be more on the defensive end.

The Governor has touted his accomplishments during his tenure as Governor, including a minimum wage increase, actions to replace SNAP benefits, and investments in early childhood education. The governor has also emphasized fiscal responsibility as he has focused on paying off the state’s heavy pension debt. Lamont, in the last few weeks, has ramped up his attacks on Elliott, specifically at the debate, dismissing Elliott as someone full of sound bites and no accomplishments. In the final week of the campaign, Lamont has started to go more negative on Elliott, attacking him for missed votes during his campaign.

Race Rating

Nationally, primary season this cycle shows there is an energy in the Democratic Party for more progressive policy and overall change. In addition, any person running for a third governor term is likely to face some level of opposition for “overstaying their welcome”. I believe this race will be closer than many people expect.

Governor Lamont is favored in this race. I see him winning by around 20 points. I do believe Elliott will win Hamden and likely New Haven. He will maintain steady support around the state, with a few pockets of winning towns. It’ll be interesting to see how Elliott does in the Farmington Valley, with a lot of upper-middle-class Democratic voters showing more progressive bona fides; Elliott may be able to get some strong performances in towns like West Hartford, Glastonbury, Farmington, and Avon. Connecticut hasn’t had too many primaries with a clear “establishment vs progressive” battle. The closest was the 2018 Lt Gov Democratic primary between former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz and labor organizer Eva Zimmerman. Bysiewicz won 62-38, but Zimmerman was commended for a great performance against a longtime statewide figure. I think Elliott will have a similar performance and pattern: outright winning a few towns, but holding a steady 35%-40% in a majority of towns.

Lamont holds very strong support from the legislature, though a few members of the progressive caucus back Elliott, including State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest and State Rep. Laurie Sweet. This is the only race with a substantial amount of recent polling (for a Connecticut race at least). The latest poll from Impact CT had Lamont leading Elliott 48-21. A decrease for Lamont, who led their earlier poll 58-20, but notably didn’t show much of an increase for Elliott. Many voters are undecided, and I suspect many of those voters will go to Elliott.

The governor does have a few things in his favor; all polling indicates a stark age divide. Elliott does very well with younger voters; Lamont dominates with older voters. The latter come out at much higher rates in late summer primaries. In addition, Lamont still remains popular with Democratic primary voters overall, holding a 63% favorable, 20% unfavorable rating in the same poll.

Most polling has shown Lamont in the 48-55% range, though Elliott has steadily risen from 7% in the first UNH poll in November to 23% in the one from Late June. Lamont led 53-23 in that poll. A final poll from Sacred Heart University/WFSB/CT Insider showed Lamont with a massive 57-22 margin over Elliott.

Lamont is heavily favored, but don’t count out a strong performance from Josh Elliott. An outright win would break CT politics, but stranger things have happened.

Race Rating: Solid Lamont
Prediction: Lamont +20 (Lamont 60%, Elliott 40%)

Congressional Primaries

1st Congressional District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: John Larson

Candidates: Rep. John Larson (Inc.) vs Luke Bronin vs Jillian Gilchrest vs Ruth Fortune

Type of Primary: Incumbent vs Challengers

2024 General Election Result: Larson +28.3 – John Larson (D) – 63.1%, Jim Griffin(R) – 34.8%

2024 Presidential Results: Harris +22.9 – Kamala Harris (D) – 60.6%, Donald Trump (R) – 37.7%

2026 General Election Rating: Solid D

Background

For the first time in modern state history, an Incumbent member of the U.S. House of Representatives faces a battle for renomination. Connecticut was the last state to adopt legally regulated primaries, which passed in the legislature in 1955. However, this method only allowed a challenge based on convention delegates, not signatures. In 2003, the General Assembly ruled that candidates can petition their way onto the ballot if they fail to meet the convention delegate threshold.

Rep. John Larson of East Hartford has had nothing much to worry about electorally after he won his primary in 1998 in an open seat by a close 46-42 margin against Secretary of State Miles Rapoport. A primary challenger has never made the ballot against Larson, though former Capitol Hill Staffer Muad Hrezi made a solid attempt in 2022. He fundraised over $500,000, but did not gather enough delegates or signatures to make the ballot.

Larson, a mainstay of Connecticut politics, has held top positions in the House of Representatives during his nearly three-decade-long tenure, including a stint as the Chair of the House Democratic Caucus from 2009 to 2013. His main issue has been Social Security, an issue he has worked hard to promote with his landmark bill Social Security 2100 Act.

The congressman now faces three challengers looking to deny him a 15th term in Congress.

Candidates

Larson’s most prominent challenger is Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin. Bronin, who was the mayor of the capital city from 2016 to 2024, won his 2015 Democratic primary by knocking out the incumbent Mayor Pedro Segarra by a 55-45 margin. He easily won his 2015 and 2019 mayoral races in a deep-blue city.

Bronin is known for his high-profile background. A BA and JD from Yale University, Rhodes Scholar, a deployment in Afghanistan where he worked on the US Military Anti-Corruption task force. He was Deputy Assistant Secretary of Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes at the US Department of the Treasury during the Obama Administration. Before launching his mayoral campaign, he served as Chief Legal Counsel to Governor Dannel Malloy.

Larson’s other opponents include State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest (D-West Hartford) and Hartford Board of Education member Ruth Fortune.

Jillian Gilchrest entered the political scene in 2018 after she ousted 12-term incumbent State Rep. Andy Fleischmann in a Democratic Primary in a 52-48 victory. Gilchrest is known as one of the most progressive members in the Connecticut Legislature, championing reproductive freedom and establishing Connecticut’s paid family and medical leave program. Before she entered state politics, she worked in women’s health, safety, and social justice organizations in leadership and advocacy roles. She also has previously served on the West Hartford Board of Education and works as an adjunct faculty member at the University of Saint Joseph and the University of Hartford.

Ruth Fortune was the first person to enter the race to challenge Larson. Appointed to the Hartford Board of Education in 2024, she came to the United States from Haiti as a young undocumented immigrant. She testified in favor of financial aid for undocumented students before the General Assembly in 2016. Fortune, a graduate of UConn School of Law, is an associate at Wiggin & Dana. She specializes as a trust and estate lawyer.

Campaign

John Larson thought Luke Bronin was kidding when he told him he was planning to run for his congressional seat. Bronin told Larson to reconsider seeking a term at his age. Larson told him that he would run for another term. The formerly close allies have headed towards a brutal primary.

The race didn’t receive a ton of attention until Bronin upset Larson at the convention for the party endorsement. After Larson’s allies maneuvered to ensure Jillian Gilchrest made the ballot with 15% of delegates, an effort to hopefully split the challenger vote, Bronin took a lead in the second round in a room with about 400 delegates and won the party endorsement 52-48 over Larson. This meant that Bronin would appear on top of the ballot in the primary. Challengers are sorted alphabetically, which meant Larson would appear at the bottom.

Fortune had to take the difficult path and gather signatures to qualify for the ballot as she did not receive enough delegates. She successfully did, and made history as the first person to successfully petition onto the ballot against an incumbent member of Congress.

In a race where candidates agreed on the majority of issues, the campaign focused on the few differences they had in policy. Overall, the candidates are all progressives, though Gilchrest and Fortune are to the left of Bronin and Larson.

Campaign fundraising emerged as a main issue in the primary. Larson has attacked Bronin for being a “corporate moderate” candidate of the billionaires, saying Bronin is there to their bidding. Bronin fought back, saying he is progressive, saying he wants to tax the rich and abolish ICE, attacking Larson for also taking donations from billionaires, and saying he’s not there to do anyone’s bidding. Bronin has attacked Larson for fundraising with PACs money, which is about half of Larson’s fundraising. With Larson and Bronin dominating fundraising, Gilchrest has attacked both of them for having big money in politics, saying she is the only candidate working to get “big money out of politics”.

Though Larson argued for months that his challengers weren’t different from him on policy, running on his experience and his leadership on Social Security. He has changed his argument to position Bronin to the right of him, saying he’s the true progressive. His initial argument led Bronin to focus his bid on a generational argument for change, as Bronin hasn’t staked out any major issue different from Larson’s record. Bronin says in his ads that John Larson is a good man, but “I’m running for Congress right now because I think we’ve got to bring a whole different type of energy to this fight…” Bronin says in one of his ads.

Race Rating

Gilchrest and Fortune have struggled to fundraise in this race. Both have raised $160,000 and $105,000 respectively over the course of their campaigns. Though admirable, both have focused on grassroots efforts and talking to voters. The issue is they’ve been drowned out by the $3,000,000 fundraising of Bronin, and $2,700,000 fundraising of Larson, leaving this race as between two candidates.

Larson has the endorsements of the federal delegation and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. He has focused on his labor support, touting endorsements from Labor, Trade, Planned Parenthood, Etc. Larson also holds many endorsements from his hometown of East Hartford and from multiple state legislative members.

Bronin did get a national endorsement from former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg. In Connecticut, Bronin has received local endorsements from several elected officials in Hartford, including Mayor Arunan Arunanpalam and Council President TJ Clarke. Bronin has also received endorsements from Newington Mayor Jon Trister, Rocky Hill Mayor Allan Smith, Cromwell Mayor James Demetriades, and Wethersfield Mayor Ken Lesser.

Gilchrest has received a number of endorsements in the State Legislature, including a group endorsement signed by 18 of her female legislative colleagues. Gilchrest also holds endorsements from progressive groups such as Indivisible CT and Citizens Impeachment.

My expectations for the primary are a narrow win for Larson. I 100% believe a Bronin upset is possible. Larson, however, has an edge due to the opposition vote being split between three candidates. There were only two polls in the race. One was a Larson internal from January (Larson 49-26), and one was a VoteVets poll (an organization that supports Bronin) that had Bronin leading Larson (Bronin 38-30), but both are months old. Although private polls have shown Bronin with a lead, nothing has been publicly released in months. One thing Bronin has going for him is that, unlike the Governor’s race, the VoteVets poll had him doing well with both older and younger voters, indicating, unlike Elliott, he doesn’t need to rely on younger voters for victory.

Larson will get a large margin out of East Hartford. Bronin will likely win Hartford. The question is how the rest of the 27-town district will go. West Hartford is a bit of a toss-up as Gilchrest will get a fair amount of the vote in her hometown. Larson will do well in towns like Bristol with a large working-class population. The more rural towns in the northern part of the district will likely favor Larson, though Bronin has been making a play there as well. Middletown is a toss-up with a mix of both progressive university voters (Wesleyan) and working-class voters. Expectations from polling are that Ruth Fortune will get about 5% of the vote, and Jillian Gilchrest will get about 10% of the vote.

Overall, this appears to be a highly competitive primary between Larson and Bronin. Larson enters Election Day with a slight advantage due to his established political network and the likelihood that the anti-Larson vote remains divided among multiple candidates. However, Bronin’s fundraising, endorsements, and reported private polling suggest an upset would not be surprising. The race is likely to be decided by turnout and the margins in the larger towns in the district (away from the candidates’ bases), including West Hartford, Middletown, Manchester, Windsor and Bristol.

Race Rating: Lean Larson

Prediction: Larson +3 (Larson 45%, Bronin 42%, Gilchrest 9%, Fortune 4%)

4th Congressional District – Republican Primary

Incumbent: Jim Himes (D)

Candidates: Michael Goldstein vs Daniel Miressi

Type of Primary: Opposition Party Nomination

2024 General Election Result: Himes +23.8 – Jim Himes (D) – 61.1%, Michael Goldstein (R) – 37.3%

2024 Presidential Results: Harris +23.4 – Kamala Harris (D) – 60.9%, Donald Trump (R) – 37.5%

2026 General Election Rating: Solid D

Candidates

Michael Goldstein, a physician and attorney from Greenwich, faces Daniel Miressi, a hockey coach and former professional hockey player, for the right to take on Democratic Rep. Jim Himes in the 4th Congressional District in November. No Republican has won the district since former Rep. Chris Shays won the district in 2006. Himes would unseat Shays in 2008.

Goldstein was the 2024 Republican nominee in the District. He also ran for the nomination in 2020 and 2022. In 2020, he did not qualify for the primary after forming a campaign committee. In 2022, Goldstein lost the Republican primary to party-endorsed Jayme Stevenson by a 40-60 margin. Goldstein has the party endorsement for the second time in a row.

Miressi qualified for the primary at the party convention. Miressi considered running in the district in 2024, but ultimately did not. He was also the Republican nominee for the 25th State Senate against Connecticut State Senate Majority Leader Bob Duff in 2022. He lost the general election 35-61 to Duff

On his campaign website, Goldstein emphasizes his experience as both a doctor and lawyer to pinpoint issues residents face. He also proposes the Goldstein Plan on issues he supports and opposes. Some of these include restoring the SALT deduction, ending cashless bail, focusing on parental rights, unwavering support for Israel, securing our borders, and protecting the Second Amendment.

On his campaign website, Miressi first explains that Republicans are the “big tent party” in Connecticut. His campaign platform is Family, Community, and Economy. He says Himes has forgotten what it means to be a “Nutmegger”. He says he will fight to lower the cost of living, parental rights, and will focus on election integrity and trust, while focusing on accountability in Washington.

Race Rating

Due to two recent primaries in this district, we do actually have some information on how a primary could go. Goldstein is favored due to the party endorsement and name ID from repeated runs in the seat. Goldstein’s primary victory in 2024 was supported by winning 79% of the vote in Greenwich, which made the margin of difference in the race.

It should be noted that turnout has been very low in recent primaries in the seat. Low-profile primaries in a Safe Democratic district likely contributed to low turnout. Only 16,517 ballots were cast in the 2022 Republican primary, and only 8,025 ballots were cast in the 2024 Republican primary. This could lead to an unexpected result.

Neither candidate has raised much money. Goldstein has raised 21k, and taken a 25k loan, and Miressi has raised 10k. Goldstein’s numerous runs may lead voters to want a different alternative, especially as this is his fourth run for this office. Despite having the party endorsement in 2024, Goldstein only won 54-46. Due to this, Miressi may have a chance at an upset, but Goldstein is favored.

Race Rating: Likely Goldstein

5th Congressional District – Republican Primary

Incumbent: Jahana Hayes (D)

Candidates: Chris Shea vs Jonathan De Barros

Type of Primary: Opposition Party Nomination

2024 General Election Result: Hayes +6.8 – Jahana Hayes (D) – 53.4%, George Logan (R) – 46.6%

2024 Presidential Results: Harris +6.2– Kamala Harris (D) – 52.0%, Donald Trump (R) – 46.4%

2026 General Election Rating: Solid D

Candidates

Chris Shea, a firefighter and retired Navy Seal, faces community leader Jonathan De Barros for the right to take on Rep. Jahana Hayes in Connecticut’s most competitive congressional seat. After almost unseating Hayes in 2022, the CT GOP spends most of their limited resources in the 5th District.

Chris Shea is the preferred candidate by the CT GOP. He has fundraised far more than any other Republican congressional candidate in the state, raising $311,000 this cycle. He did raise about the same amount of money as Rep. Hayes in Q1 this year, 163k to 166k. Shea founded the organization Hero to Hero, a nonprofit that encourages military veterans to consider second careers as first responders. Since retiring from his military career, Shea works as a firefighter lieutenant at the North Haven Fire Department. His military career started when he joined the US Navy in 1991. His time in service included operational tours with deployments and various joint special operations in Sarajevo, Afghanistan, and Mexico.

Jonathan De Barros is the founder of the Phoenix Youth Foundation, a nonprofit that works to mentor at-risk youth, promote vocational training, and teaching conflict resolution. De Barros has received attention for his role in the shooting and killing a young man in October 1996. De Barros was convicted of murder, attempted murder, and assault with a firearm. In 2000, the Connecticut Appellate Court overturned his original murder conviction, ruling that a trial judge blocked critical evidence supporting De Barros’s claim of self-defense in the shooting.

His manslaughter charge went to trial again, but ended in a hung jury. De Barros eventually accepted a plea bargain under the Alford Doctrine, which stated he could maintain his innocence, but the state had enough evidence to potentially convict him. The Connecticut Board of Pardons and Paroles issued De Barros an absolute pardon in 2022. De Barros says he was wrongfully incarcerated for 19 years due to flawed prosecution and maintains his self-defense view.

De Barros filed a defamation suit during his campaign against four supporters of Shea for allegedly calling him a “murderer”. Shea is not a defendant in the suit. The suit seeks a gag order to stop the four defendants from repeating statements about him being a murderer. De Barros says the supporters said those statements on Facebook Live broadcasts, social media, and during the Republican nominating convention.

Campaign Issues and Race Rating

Both Shea and De Barros align themselves as conservative Republicans. De Barros calls himself a “MAGA patriot”. De Barros has heavily critiqued other Republicans in the state. Last year, the Capitol Police investigated him for social media posts about Republican State Chair Ben Proto, Senate Minority Leader Stephen Harding, and Sen. Rob Sampson, but the Capitol Police determined nothing De Barros said was a threat.

Shea’s campaign website shows issues focusing on protecting families. Specifically, stopping illegal immigration and “standing against woke ideologies that threaten our children’s future”. He also emphasizes lowering the cost of living by reducing the tax burden and promoting practical housing solutions. He also says America should stand with Israel, advocates for American military strength, and will fight to improve the VA.

De Barros stakes out similar positions on immigration, dedicating effort to keep borders secure. He does add more specific positions, adding that any governor or elected official who obstructs immigration and customs enforcement should be removed from office and arrested by Homeland Security. He also takes positions on improving the VA and wants to enact laws that would prevent bills in Connecticut that allow parents not to be informed. De Barros promotes charter schools as an alternative to a failing education system. He stakes out his plans as a “New Reconstruction for the 5th district,” akin to the Reconstruction after the Civil War to rebuild trust in institutions.

Shea is favored here on Tuesday. His strong support from local officials and strong fundraising should give him a solid victory. However, similar to the 4th Congressional District, turnout will be low, so an upset isn’t impossible depending on who can get their base out.

It’s unknown how the defamation lawsuit will play out with voters. It is one of the few things in this primary that has broken into the news cycle. De Barros may be able to generate some excitement among his base supporters. Also, with Shea being stronger with party support, De Barros may be able to generate an “Establishment” vs “Outsider” message, which can be effective in a Republican primary where many primary voters are unhappy with the state party leaders for continued losses in the state.

De Barros has to use more of a grassroots approach, having fundraised only $25,000 this cycle, about 1/12 of Shea’s haul. The money Shea has will likely allow him to get his name more in front of voters. Shea’s profile is also appealing for a district close to the federal level that may attract voters.

Race Rating: Solid Shea

Summary

Connecticut’s August 11th primaries offer a snapshot of where both parties head going into the general election. Notably for Democrats, the Governor’s race will test the strength of the party’s progressive wing against an incumbent who remains broadly popular. The 1st Congressional District could produce one of the most watched contests of the night. Luke Bronin can truly upset Rep. John Larson, but structural advantages remain for both incumbents. If Bronin wins, it would create a shock for incumbents across the country, as Congressman Larson has faced no scandals or a prominent reason to be out of office. In addition, this is not a race that has faced an ideological argument for change. Races on generational change on its own rarely take out incumbents.

Primaries for prominent offices in Connecticut are a rare occasion, and against incumbents is almost unheard of. An incumbent Governor hasn’t faced a primary since 1978. An incumbent member of the House in Connecticut has never faced a primary at all. It’s no secret that we are in a political environment where we may see more primaries in Connecticut’s future.

Low-turnout primaries in the 4th and 5th Congressional Districts could lead to unexpected results, and upsets have been common in recent Connecticut Republican primaries. Whether these contests reaffirm the political status quo or signal shifting coalitions within Connecticut’s parties, the results will provide valuable insight into the state’s political landscape heading into November.

As always, these ratings are forecasts based on the information available before Election Day—not guarantees. I’ll be following the results as they come in on August 11 and will revisit these predictions afterward to evaluate what I got right, what I got wrong, and what the outcomes reveal about Connecticut politics. Stay tuned for Part 2, where we cover legislative primaries.

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New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart announced her exploratory campaign for governor on Jan 28th, 2025, at New Britain City Hall. Source: Connecticut Public Radio

Table of Contents

Overview

Fundraising reports for Q3 were due in early to mid-October for both statewide candidates and candidates for federal office. Finance reports give credentials to more serious candidates, demonstrating they have funds for increasingly expensive primary campaigns, and for candidates to demonstrate they are the ones to take the mantle for the party.

Q3 Finance Reports allow voters to see how candidates for governor are faring, including what is looking like a competitive Republican primary between New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart and State Senator Ryan Fazio. We will also look at State Rep. Josh Elliott’s campaign for governor.

Additionally, we are looking to see how viable Democratic primary challengers to Rep. John Larson are in CT-01.

Q3 Republican Primary for Governor Fundraising

Erin Stewart – $102,000
Overall Campaign – $350,000+

Ryan Fazio – $157,769

Republican Primary Governor Discussion

When Fazio launched his campaign, I was curious how the Republican coalitions would react around the state. Would they split between Stewart and Fazio, or would they consolidate behind Stewart? Based on fundraising and endorsements, it seems to be the former.

Fazio now has the most money raised by a Republican for a single quarter in the history of the state’s Citizens’ Election Program for public financing. Though a very specific accomplishment that may not mean a lot in the long run, it shows that he is able to raise enough money to compete against Stewart.

He has raised money from more than 1,000 individuals across 114 towns across the state.

The race has turned into a head-to-head, as Westport Selectwoman Jennifer Tooker dropped out of the race last month, after struggling to raise funds. She did not rule out running for another office on the ballot, however.

Stewart’s exploratory campaign has raised over $350,000 since her entry into the race in late January. She is still the frontrunner, as she has far more name recognition than Fazio. Her run for Lieutenant Governor in 2018 and being a mayor for more than a decade mean voters are more familiar with her. She has also been expected to run for governor for years, keeping her name in conversations for a long time.

The question still is, who can win over MAGA voters? Stewart and Fazio have both expressed support for Trump. Stewart told members of the Republican State Central Committee in April that her campaign would get the endorsement.

Fazio, in particular, made it a point not to mention Trump in his campaign last year in his Harris +16 state senate seat. That’s not too surprising, but Fazio has been more willing to talk about Trump while pursuing statewide office. He told guests at a fundraiser for Republican candidate for New Haven Mayor Steve Orosco last month that he voted for Trump, but emphasized a focus on local issues. Fazio’s endorsements from the state legislature, including firebrand Rob Sampson, show that Fazio also has some institutional support from conservative

As we have mentioned before, both Fazio and Stewart are aware of the power of a Trump endorsement, even in a blue state like Connecticut. In addition to how the CT Republican Party has failed to get their preferred candidates over the line in a Republican primary. Trump’s late endorsement of businesswoman Leora Levy in the 2022 US Senate Race gave her the necessary boost to beat out State House Minority Leader Themis Klarides.

Fundraising has shown it will be a competitive race, as we head into next year, we will get a clear look to see at how voters feel between the two candidates.

Q3 Democratic Primary Governor Fundraising

Josh Elliott – $45,834

Is Elliott Viable against Lamont?

State Rep. Josh Elliott has raised just above $45,000 in his campaign for governor. Governor Ned Lamont has not confirmed he would run for a 3rd term, though he is expected to announce his campaign after local elections on November 4th.

Lamont garnered the ire of statewide progressives when he vetoed two bills, one that would provide funds for striking workers, and an affordable housing bills over concerns about how local control would work. Progressives, angry about the bill that was expected to pass, told the media that Lamont would get a challenge from the left.

Elliott, who entered the race in July, has not garnered a lot of attention in his bid, however. Though there is still plenty of time before the late-summer primary, Lamont’s veto did not lead to an overwhelming string of donations protesting him.

A poll from UNH in September demonstrated some of Elliott’s struggles. 71% of voters did not know about him to give an opinion. And the ones that did, his approval was -6, with 5% approval, 11% unfavorable.

Polling has shown that Lamont is still popular, with the same UNH poll showing Lamont with a +18 Job Approval rating.

Elliott also needs to change the narrative, as only 20% of voters said that Lamont’s views were to the right of their own. This included a majority of both socialists (82%) and progressives (53%). On the question if Lamont deserves to be re-elected, it was 43% yes, 40% no. But 62% of Democrats said that Lamont deserves to be re-elected, only 19% said he doesn’t.

It is important to note that this was only one poll, but it reinforces the narrative that Lamont will be difficult to beat.

What Josh Elliott still has in his favor is some support from the state legislature, notably from many other progressives. Looking through his donation list, Elliott has received donations from 1 state senator and 11 state representatives.

The list includes

State Sen. Saud Anwar (D-South Windsor)
State Rep. Mary Fortier (D-Bristol)
State Rep. Nick Gauthier (D-Waterford)
State Rep. Eleni Kavros DeGraw (D-Avon)
State Rep. Sarah Keitt (D-Fairfield)
State Rep. Renee Muir (D-Deep River)
State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest (D-West Hartford)
State Rep. Laurie Sweet (D-Hamden)
State Rep. Robin Comey (D-Branford)
State Rep. Frank Smith (D-Milford)
State Rep. Anne Hughes (D-Easton)
State Rep. Mary Welander (D-Orange)

The 2026 Environment

The 2026 environment for Democrats seems to be leaning more towards anti-establishment/anti-incumbent. There is definitely an energy for a more aggressive posture from some Democrats. But Elliott needs to find a way to garner more attention, either through social media or otherwise. He also needs to find more national or statewide groups to endorse him, as they might be able to help him out with fundraising. It might be a long shot, but even trying to get an endorsement from a progressive member in Congress. Anything to bring some momentum and attention to his campaign.

Elliott will need a lot of money if he faces the wealthy Lamont. Elliott did tell the New Haven Independent in an interview in early September that he has enough delegates to force a primary and that Lamont is not as popular as people believe. He also mentioned he won’t pursue a primary “if he fails to win the convention outright”. He noted he promised his family that he wouldn’t go through a Line B candidacy unless the results are close.

It’s hard to say how much it matters if Elliott does not fully commit to a primary. It is not uncommon for legislators to form exploratory committees and not go to the primary if they don’t think they can win. Elliott faced the same issue when he ran for Secretary of State in 2022. Once he lost at the convention and didn’t have enough delegates to make the primary. Elliott was able to run for his state house seat, as town committee endorsements for his state house seat took place after the convention. A similar thing can happen in 2026.

Elliott also said he didn’t want to risk his legislative position in the State House, so we will see if the race gets closer for Elliott to change his mind.

Q3 Fundraising Democratic Primary in CT’s 1st Congressional District

Luke Bronin – $1,192,798 (In 8 Weeks)
John Larson (Inc.) – $804,557
Jillian Gilchrest – $54,392 (In 4 Weeks)
Ruth Fortune – $41,353
Jack Perry – $28,810 (Did Take Out a $500k Loan) (9 Weeks)

Bronin Emerging as Main Challenger

Bronin’s fundraising brought him ahead of incumbent John Larson. Both have been trading barbs with each other.

Bronin has attacked Larson for taking PAC money and encouraged him not to do so. Larson has attacked Bronin for not actually representing a change at all. Larson and his team continue to say that Larson is the best person to represent the district.

He hasn’t exactly been enthusiastic about the prospect of fundraising. Something he hasn’t been forced to do for decades. He has complained that the money spent in Connecticut should be spent in swing districts across the country, not wasted here.

Bronin, however, raised $500,000 on the first day of his campaign and over a million for the quarter, putting him on par with many competitive campaigns across the country. With his fundraising, Bronin has established himself as Larson’s primary challenger.

Larson received $495,057 from individuals. He raised the additional $309,500 from PAC money. Bronin has raised all of his money from individuals. He has not spent much of his money yet.

Larson’s fundraising is expected to increase in Q4, and Bronin said he will likely be behind. He did say early fundraising shows “we’re going to have what we need to compete and make a powerful case for change,”.

Jillian Gilchrest’s Op-Ed

State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest said in a statement, “This fundraising pissing contest doesn’t surprise me, but bragging about how much money you can drag into politics is completely out of touch.” She also marked how the money should be used for other causes. She spent her first month in the race talking to voters.

Her comments did make sense, considering her paltry $54,000 fundraising. The amount is not nearly enough for a competitive Democratic primary in the Hartford Media market.

Though Gilchrest makes good points about the issues of how expensive it is to run for office. She also brought up the importance and need of public financing in Congressional Campaigns. Both her major opponents, Larson and Bronin, said they agree that the system needs to be reformed.

In her Op-Ed, Gilchrest notes that she would not have been able to run for office, especially against a 23-year incumbent, without Connecticut’s public financing system, the Citizens’ Election Program. She explains how the wealthy control our government, and the continuation of corruption, and how billionaires avoid paying taxes, making the rest of us pay more. Gilchrest also said she understood the importance of fundraising as a means to compete, but she won’t run playing by “old rules that got us in this mess in the first place”. She will raise money in a way that fits the character of the campaign.

Gilchrest has noted that instead of fundraising, she has spent her time going around the district and talking with residents. She did not ask people for money during her conversations, marking to change how politics works, “we need to elect people who think about politics differently”.

This contrasts with Bronin’s approach so far. Bronin isn’t a progressive insurgent in the mold of Gilchrest or Elliott, but he’s playing the traditional political game effectively — raising large sums quickly, cultivating credibility with national donors, and leveraging institutional networks. He’s not rejecting the system, just adapting it to appear reform-minded, notably by rejecting PAC money, unlike Larson. Ideologically, he’s not as left-leaning as Gilchrest, but sits somewhere between the state’s moderate establishment and its progressive base.

The Reality of Fundraising

Gilchrest is notable in her cause; she makes great points about the difficulties faced by first-time candidates. This is also why Gilchrest is still a dangerous candidate; she has the makings of what the Democratic Primary electorate is looking for in 2026, a progressive anti-establishment candidate. This is a mantle that she can take from Bronin, but the primary will come up quickly. They are also likely to split the vote at this rate from Larson.

However, she can’t ignore the realities of congressional fundraising. When Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez pulled off a shocking upset in 2018 against No. 4 House Democrat Joe Crowley, she raised around $300,000, less than 1/10 of Crowley’s chest.

AOC set up a shockwave of progressive challengers to come, a model that many hope to replicate. Though none have come near the scale of AOC’s upset, you need a few things to happen. Joe Crowley openly admits that he was not tuned into his district in 2018 and did not actively campaign during his primary campaign.

John Larson, on the other hand, has been barnstorming the district. Larson told the Courant that the challenges have made him more energetic, and have led Larson to frenzied campaigning, unlike he has done in years.

The point is, Gilchrest cannot ignore the realities of fundraising. Donors and national fundraisers need to hear about the candidate and their ideas. Also, understand that the candidate’s campaign is to be taken seriously. Gilchrest has the endorsement of Indivisible CT, a notable progressive group.

But despite her complaints about money, Democrats have notably outraised Republicans across the country in many races. Democrats know that backing down from spending would only fail to get their message out. For Gilchrest, I would argue that Progressive organizations, especially national ones, are stockpiled with money ready to spend on upstart progressive candidates, who would love a candidate like Gilchrest. They also have far more resources and can help nationalize the race.

AOC, who struggled fundraising in 2018, has raised nearly $10 million in Q1 of this year (nearly $21 million for the year) as a well-known figure going against President Trump. The opportunity is there.

Similar to what I explained about State Rep. Josh Elliott (who Gilchrest gave a donation too), she needs to tap into national groups and endorsements to garner some attention and momentum. Though it is good that she is communicating with people, garnering attention is important, and that will lead to funds without having to force the conversation.

Scenairos

Both Jack Perry and Ruth Fortune raised similar numbers. It is not too surprising that Gilchrest, Perry, and Fortune are struggling. They are not as well-known and represent local town offices. Though Gilchrest is a state representative, the issue is that Connecticut has some of the smallest state house districts in the country by population. Only 23,000 residents live in each district. Scaling up an effort to a 700,000+ person Congressional house district is not easy; it becomes an issue of name ID, especially as she is not that well-known outside of her hometown of West Hartford.

Fortune’s $40,000 is not bad, and honestly, more than I expected from Fortune, who only came into office as an appointed candidate last year. Perry has taken out a $500,000 loan, but how he will use his money will be the deciding factor for him. I have doubts that Fortune and Perry can make the ballot, but we will see what happens on that front.

There is still plenty of time for this race to change. All candidates will have to face a very energetic Larson and prove to voters that age concerns are enough to take out an incumbent. Gilchrest needs to garner attention and try to get more progressive groups to seize on the opportunity to back her, instead of Bronin, as Larson’s main challenger, and Larson himself, who is fairly progressive himself. The federal delegation is backing Larson, so they need to look to the state legislature, local offices, or start going to House or Senate members.

Bronin needs to continue fundraising, attacking Larson, but also come up with some policy points, as his name seems to be mentioned more in the national political media as a Democrat primarying an incumbent (Downballot and Former White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki’s Podcast, as some examples). He has to capitalize to ensure that he remains Larson’s main challenger. For Perry and Fortune, they need to garner more attention and differentiate themselves from other challengers.

It’s Larson’s race to lose! He’s the frontrunner.

It could be a two-way race, a three-way race, or even a larger field. But it seems highly unlikely that Larson won’t have at least one challenger on the ballot. We are still more than 6 months away from the convention and 9 months away from a primary, so a lot can change.

Thanks for Reading!

Southington Council Member and Small Business Owner Jack Perry with his family. Source: Jack Perry for Congress

Overview

The 1st Congressional District has something brewing that may lead to an outcome that hasn’t happened since the state started conducting formal primaries over five decades ago. There might be a primary challenger on the ballot against an Incumbent Democratic member of the House.

John Larson, a 14-term incumbent in the 1st congressional district, is a staple in his district. He has not faced a single challenger since his narrow primary win in the open seat against then Secretary of State Miles Rapoport in 1998.

He not only has two challengers running against him currently, Hartford Board of Education member Ruth Fortune, and Southington Town Council Member Jack Perry. But two even more prominent names, former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, and State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest, have publicly discussed the possibility of challenging Larson. If either takes the plunge, we might have the most significant primary challenge against an incumbent in the state since Senator Joe Lieberman in 2006.

A Brief Political Background on John Larson

John Larson has been a staple in the 1st District for over three decades. He grew up in public housing with seven brothers and sisters in East Hartford.

After graduating from East Hartford High School and Central Connecticut State University (CCSU). Larson worked as a high school history teacher and co-owned an insurance agency before entering politics.

He started his career on the East Hartford Board of Education in 1977. He rose quickly to the East Hartford Town Council, and by 1982, he was elected to the Connecticut State Senate in the 3rd District. By 1987, he was picked by his peers as President Pro Tempore of the State Senate.

Larson did not run for reelection and lost the 1994 Democratic nomination for Governor to Bill Curry. Larson entered private business but ensured to keep up his political connections. He was able to leverage these connections for the 1st Congressional seat in 1998. The seat was open since Democratic Incumbent Barbara Kennelly decided to run for governor.

He narrowly defeated Secretary of State Miles Rapoport in the primary by a narrow 46-42 margin.

Larson in Congress

Interestingly, Larson was the moderate challenger in his primary race against the more progressive Miles Rapoport in their 1998 primary. However, during his tenure in Congress, Larson has garnered a progressive record. Though his positions in leadership make him somewhat loyal to establishment-based leadership. On Voteview, Larson ranks nearly in the dead middle of his Democratic house colleagues on the Left-Right spectrum, firmly between the moderates and progressives.

John Larson is currently a member of the influential House Ways and Means Committee. He is also included on the Subcommittees on Trade and Social Security. Larson’s main cause in Congress has been focused on social security. Larson has also had prominent leadership positions during his tenure. He was the Vice Chair of the House Democratic Caucus from 2006 to 2009, and was later picked as the chair of the House Democratic Caucus from 2009 to 2013.

Larson has played a large role in authoring legislation that allowed for Medicare to negotiate for lower drug prices for consumers. A prominent provision that was signed into law by President Biden in 2022. Larson, also due to his leadership position, was very involved in passing the Affordable Care Act during the Obama Administration. He also worked with the Late Rep. John Lewis on the For the Peoples Act, and was an original cosponsor of the similar John Lewis Voting Rights Amendment.

Larson Recently

This is something Larson has highlighted in his recent press statements (and by his family members). Larson has discussed his seniority, strength on social security, and how this allows him to have more influence in bringing back funding into the district. Seniority (and bringing funding to the district) has been a long-standing way to encourage primary voters to vote for long-term incumbents. However, in this anti-incumbent environment targeting older lawmakers, it is hard to say how much the salience of seniority arguments works on primary voters after the 2024 elections. An environment where scrutiny over long-term and older incumbents has greatly increased, and seniority lawmakers aren’t seen as much of an asset compared to recent campaigns.

The recent deaths of prominent long-term older Democratic lawmakers, including Rep. Gerry Connolly (VA-11), Rep. Raul Grijalva (AZ-07), and Rep. Sylvester Turner (TX-18) has allowed for the uncomfortable discussion of encouraging the retirement of older lawmakers. Many, however, including Larson, who would turn 80 during his next term, feel that they are capable of being in Congress and that they are the best for the position.

More recently, Larson has had less visual prominence in the Democratic caucus. Larson also attracted unwanted attention for a partial seizure he suffered during a speech in both February and April. His comments in March on Elon Musk garnered positive attention for him. We discussed this in an article two weeks ago. This issue has led many to see Larson as vulnerable.

New Challenger Jack Perry

We discussed Larson’s first challenger in the Hartford Board of Ed. Member and Attorney Ruth Fortune, who filed against Larson during the July 4th weekend.

A new challenger has emerged in the Southington Town Counciler and Small Businessman Jack Perry. Jack Perry has stated “I’m running for Congress because, like so many others, I am fed up with this broken economic system that is rigged against the working and middle class,” he said in a statement. Perry is making this the center of his campaign, featuring the quote on both his campaign kickoff video and on his campaign website.

Perry’s Campaign

Perry didn’t note anything specific about Larson, but talked about needing fresh leadership who will fight against Trump and corporate interests. He also talked about fighting for the person as a working-class person. He also cited his background, experience, and his unique profile for a potential member of Congress. Perry cites this due to his working-class career in the garbage hauling business.

Perry has also gained attention for pledging to spend $500,000 of his own money against Larson. Funds he got from selling his family-owned garage business, HQ Dumpsters and Recycling, though he currently oversees daily operations. He is also suspected of releasing a poll in March, gauging a hypothetical primary, receiving the attention of local state politicos. Perry is not well-known around the state, although he did gain some recognition for running for a State Senate seat in 2020 against Republican incumbent Rob Sampson, who beat Perry 54-46. Notably, Trump performed well in the district.

Due to not being well-known, Perry acknowledges the uphill battle against the incumbent, citing the effort and passion he is willing to put into the campaign. We have to see what issues and events he does to garner more attention.

What is Luke Bronin Planning?

Luke Bronin, the former mayor of Hartford from 2016 until 2024, has spent years preparing for a run for governor. However, with Governor Ned Lamont likely to run for a 3rd term, Bronin is looking elsewhere to continue his political career.

Bronin has a lot of guts. He reportedly has asked Larson to step down and make way for a new generation. Larson told Bronin he is running again, and Bronin has reportedly been seriously contemplating a campaign. Bronin, similar to other challengers, says he respects Larson’s work, but it’s time for the baton to be passed.

I believe Bronin thinks that if he waits to the next open gubernatorial race in 2030, he would have been out of office too long to be seriously considered for the Democratic nomination meaning he is looking at his options.

It is important to note that if he jumps in, this won’t be the first time Bronin has challenged an incumbent in a primary. A background that includes being a Navy veteran, Yale graduate, working in an appointed position at the Treasury Department under Obama, and general counsel for Governor Dannel Malloy’s administration. Bronin challenged Incumbent Hartford Mayor Pedro Segarra in 2015, secured the Democratic Town Committee endorsement, and beat Seggara by ten points.

If he jumps in, we will discuss Bronin’s background in more detail. However, an ambitious politician with experience, good relationships in the district, and the ability to fundraise positions him as a top challenger to Larson if he jumps in. He is also only 46, more than three decades younger than Larson, with experience, something voters in the district might be happy to see in a challenger.

Will Jillian Gilchrest Jump in?

State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest at a conference. Source: Facebook

State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest, the director of Health Professional Outreach at the Connecticut Coalition Against Domestic Violence, is one of the most prominent progressive voices in the state.

Gilchrest, who is also an adjunct professor and was a prominent co-organizer of the Women’s March Connecticut, has also told reporters that she is looking at the race.

Reporters note the lack of downside since so many politicians are looking at the race. Gilchrest, who, like Bronin, came to office from a challenging incumbent. Gilchrest successfully won a primary challenge against 12-term Incumbent State Rep. Andy Fleischmann in the 18th district in 2018. Gilchrest ran on a progressive agenda, focusing on the state’s economic future, new ideas of thinking, and noted that more women needed to be in office.

Gilchrest, who didn’t win the Democratic Town Committee endorsement, petitioned to make the ballot, won an upset 52-48 victory over Fleischman, and has been in office since.

Why Gilchrest is a Prominent Candidate

Gilchrest has been one of the first names frequently mentioned as someone who would very likely run for the 1st district when Larson retires. Gilchrest’s prominence on Women’s issues, maternal health, and education has allowed her a great reputation in the state house. Her previous activism makes her a perfect candidate for progressives.

She told reporters that she is considering running for office. She said that though respect should go to Larson, the number of people getting in has made her want to be part of it. Gilchrest, the co-chair of the assembly’s human services committee, talked about how Democrats are “looking for voices who will be speaking about the issues that impact them and not waiting to feel out how to best say something“. She also noted that leaders who are direct and talk about everyday issues are important.

Gilchrest told the Courant she didn’t have a timeline a few weeks ago, but if she gets in, she will be a very prominent challenger against Larson. She is also only 43, nearly 35 years younger than Larson.

What Will Happen?

Predicting primary elections is difficult, especially a year out before the primary. But here is what I think is likely and what I expect. If I am wrong, then we can look back and have a good laugh!

I think Ruth Fortune will struggle the most out of the four named candidates. She currently has no campaign website and no name ID. She will struggle with funding if more prominent names jump into the race. Under Connecticut’s restrictive ballot system, I don’t think she will make the ballot. She might get some attention, depending on her stances on some issues, but I don’t see her gaining much traction.

Jack Perry is an interesting candidate. A small business owner who is only 35 and has $500,000 is self-funding he is willing to throw against Larson, who, according to the Downballot, has had very meager fundraising for an incumbent in Quarter 2. Larson, who, due to his solid name ID and never having a challenger in the safe Democratic district, has never had to raise much money, but if facing an onslaught of attacks if the race turns negative, he might need to raise more money.

Perry can garner some attention depending on how he takes his campaign. He will need to focus more on the issues and differentiating himself from Larson. Currently, his website has no issues listed. With no likely policy differences, the question is a generational argument enough to take out Larson? I’m skeptical, but things can change throughout the campaign.

Why Money Might Not Guarantee Ballot Access

If Bronin and Gilchrest both don’t jump in, I think Perry will be Larson’s most prominent challenger, but getting on the ballot isn’t easy, even with significant self-funding. If Bronin and Gilchrest do jump in, he might struggle to garner traction and make the ballot.

Perry has to be reminded by 2022. When Larson had a challenger in former staffer and substitute Teacher Muad Hrezi, who raised a solid $500,000 during his primary campaign. Hrezi, however, did not make the ballot due to a poor showing at the Convention and struggling to get signatures in a tough summer primary when COVID made garnering signatures more difficult than usual. However, there was 0 momentum for Larson to face any challenger at that time; state delegates and most primary voters weren’t interested as Hrezi struggled to garner attention.

Despite his self-funding, it might not be enough to challenge Larson considerably without gaining traction otherwise. Hrezi also attempted a generational argument and couldn’t make the ballot or get 15% of the delegates. Of course, there is more momentum for generational change, but Perry will need to convince voters that he is the change.

Here’s Where The Race Becomes Unpredictable

Gilchrest or Bronin, if either enters the race, will both seriously change the calculus of the race. Bronin has many connections across the state and a profile that many would find attractive. Gilchrest, who hails from the voter-rich neighboring suburb of West Hartford, which has the most voters in the district (despite being half of the population of Hartford), is popular and will do well in the town.

Most importantly, both can make the ballot either through convention delegates (due to local prominence) or through the signature requirement of the ballot if they fundraise well.

I would be surprised if both Bronin and Gilchrest entered, as they would be fighting for a similar consistuency, leading to Larson potentially winning the primary in a plurality. It is, however, plausible, and if they both enter, I assume Gilchrest would have a better chance of taking the progressive mantle over Bronin.

Also, though it attracted attention and made Larson appear vulnerable, I’m not sure if a purely age argument will be enough by the summer of 2026. Larson has served the district well, bringing billions of dollars of funding, and will be the chairman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee if Democrats retake the majority next year.

Plausible Scenarios

If Lamont decides not to seek a third term, however, I think Bronin would clearly want to run for governor. Gilchrest, who is still serving in the legislature, would likely have to give up her seat for a risky primary challenge. Bronin is not currently in an elected position, so if he goes for it, Gilchrest might wait to make a decision.

In addition, if the pressure continues and Larson decides to retire, the calculus will change, and I would expect not only both members to enter the primary, but also other members of the legislature and local office to enter for a seat that hasn’t had an open primary in nearly thirty years. In that scenario, I expect a super chaotic race.

Bronin and Gilchrest are some of the most prominent politicians to consider primarying an Incumbent House Member in the country, meaning they could both attract national attention. This can help with fundraising if they go through with it.

They can also increase their prominence if it doesn’t work, as I highly doubt it would end either of their political careers, and might give them other opportunities. However, whenever one challenges an incumbent, it can make relationships with other local members difficult, especially if many favor Larson, which Gilchrest might contemplate more due to being a member of the legislature.

Overall

It’s important to note that Larson is a formidable opponent with decades of experience and relationships across the district. He doesn’t have any specific issue for an opponent to seize on, other than his age.

However, times have changed. Seniority isn’t seen as a positive by some of the Democratic party electorate. An electorate that demands leaders to fight more and be visible on issues on social media.

If Bronin and Gilchrest don’t jump in, I think Larson is super safe in his seat. If Bronin or Gilchrest takes the plunge, I don’t think we can ignore the prospect of a good, competitive race.

It will be interesting to see what happens. I will keep updated on the race and provide updates as needed. I think no matter what, it’ll be an interesting race that everyone should pay attention to.

Thanks for Reading!