State Rep. Pat Dillon (right) at a debate in the Coogan Pavilion on July 28th, 2026, with one of her two opponents, Justin Farmer (left). Credit to Paul Bass | New Haven Independent

Overview

Welcome to the CT Election Guide’s August 11th Ultimate Primary Guide.

In Part 2 of the guide, I will cover primaries in the state legislature. Read Part 1 if you are interested in the primaries for Governor and Congress.

There are a number of primaries to cover.

I will also give a rating for each race and a prediction of who I think will emerge victorious on the 11th. There are several competitive races on the ballot, so expect some fascinating results.

Let’s get started!

Voting Information

Per state rules, Connecticut is a closed primary state. This means only registered voters of that party can vote in a primary election on August 11th. In Connecticut, a plurality of voters are registered unaffiliated (about 42.2% as of 2025); that proportion of state voters will be unable to vote in the election. However, unaffiliated voters have until August 10th at noon to register with a party, if they plan to vote on primary day.

If a voter wants to switch parties to vote in a primary (From Democratic to Republican, or vice versa), they had to do so by May 11th. If a voter wanted to vote during early voting and they are unaffiliated, they had until July 31st at Noon. A new voter can file a voter application in person with the registrar of voters in their town by noon on the business day prior to the day they want to vote.

In Connecticut, only contested primaries take place on the ballot. If a race is uncontested, there is no primary in that district. Due to a Democratic primary for Governor, every registered Democrat in the state can vote in the primary.

There are no statewide primaries for Republicans, as all statewide offices were decided at the May Convention, and no challengers met the requirements or attempted to force a primary. There are primaries in some congressional districts and legislative seats. If you’re a Registered Republican looking to vote, you can use this map to see if you live within the district boundaries. There are primaries in the 4th and 5th Congressional Districts, the 19th State Senate Seat, and the 50th and 71st State House Seats.

Early voting is available for this election. Early voting takes place from August 3rd to August 9th. Extended voting hours will take place on the 4th and 6th.

Monday, August 3rd – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Tuesday, August 4th – 8:00 am to 8:00 pm
Wednesday, August 5th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Thursday, August 6th – 8:00 am to 8:00 pm
Friday, August 7th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Saturday, August 8th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Sunday, August 9th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm

Voters must vote in the assigned early voting location for their town of voter registration. The list of early voting locations can be found here. The majority of the early voting locations are in Town Hall, community centers, or the library.

Absentee ballots are also available for this election. One can request a ballot at the online portal here. Starting this cycle, after a 2024 voting referendum passed, voters no longer need to provide a specific excuse to vote in any election. Voters can request an absentee ballot for any reason. If voters need a paper application for an absentee ballot, use this link and scroll down to print a paper application. The deadline to request an absentee ballot is August 10th.

If you need to hand out an absentee ballot application to someone, please follow the state’s strict rules concerning this action. There are limits on who you can get an absentee ballot application for (immediate family), and the number of ballots you can request.

CT Election Guide Race Rating System

These ratings represent my assessment of each race based on available polling, fundraising, endorsements, campaign activity, geographic strengths, and the overall political environment. They are forecasts—not guarantees—and races can shift before Election Day.

• Solid – Expected margin of 15% or more
• Likely – Expected margin of 8–15%
• Lean – Expected margin of 3–8%
• Toss-Up – Expected margin of less than 3%

State Senate

2nd State Senate District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Doug McCrory (D)

Candidates: Sen. Doug McCrory (Inc.) vs Maryam Khan vs Ayana Taylor

Type of Primary: Incumbent vs Challenger

Background and Candidates

Incumbent State Sen. Doug McCrory (D-Hartford) faces two challengers for renomination in this deep blue District that contains parts of Hartford, Windsor, and Bloomfield for a sixth 2-year term. State Rep. Maryam Khan (D-Windsor) and Windsor Board of Education Chair Ayana Taylor. Khan won the party endorsement in May at the district convention and will be on Row A of the ballot. Taylor ran against McCrory in the 2024 primary, where she lost by a 32-60 margin.

McCrory, who has been a longtime state legislator, was first elected to the State House in 2004. He served for 11 years before winning a special election to the 2nd State Senate seat in 2017. Though he handily won his primary two years prior, McCrory has since found himself as the subject of a federal criminal investigation.

The grand jury investigated the millions of taxpayer dollars McCrory steered towards a non-profit in his district. An audit showed that McCrory directed how one of the nonprofit, Blue Hills Civic Association, spent the majority of the money allocated. He also told them not to tell the state about money stolen through a fraudulent wire transfer. McCrory was also investigated for the relationship he had with the leader of some of the nonprofits, Sonserae Cicero.

Khan and Taylor are running against McCrory due to his scandals. Khan said during the convention, “The district is ready for strong leadership and possibly new leadership, but regardless, leadership that’s not distracted.” Ayana Taylor has said her campaign is centered on integrity and trust. Both candidates have also brought their backgrounds as a campaign tool. Taylor as the chair of the Windsor Board of Education, and Khan as an “active educator, mother and focused leader”.

The three candidates are aligned on most major policy issues, though one notable exception is on school choice and education funding. McCrory advocates for school choice (charter, magnet, etc), while Khan remains firmly opposed. Taylor has expressed some skepticism on school choice, but supports quality alternatives.

Race Rating

Though Khan has the party endorsement, it’s not unprecedented for an incumbent to lose a party convention, but in Connecticut it is rare. A few incumbents have won without the party endorsement before. In 2024, in the 15th State House Seat (which overlaps with this district), State Rep. Bobby Gibson lost the party endorsement, but won his primary 70-30.

Though the FBI investigation has brought scrunity to McCrory, Khan and Taylor will be splitting the anti-McCrory vote. In addition, both Khan and Taylor are from Windsor, meaning they both will likely be splitting their home base. Taylor won Windsor in her 2024 matchup against McCrory, but got swamped by large margins in the Hartford and Bloomfield sections of the district.

Khan does have grassroots support and is one of the two primary candidates this cycle supported by CT DSA. However, i’m skeptical she can win over the large older black voter contingent in the district. Taylor has good name recognition from her previous run in the seat, but her base of support overlaps with Khan. At the end of the day, Khan and Taylor both will likely split the opposition vote, and will struggle in McCrory’s base of votes in Bloomfield and Hartford. So I give the edge to McCrory.

Race Rating: Likely McCrory

13th State Senate District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Jan Hochadel (D)

Candidates: Jack Fazzino vs Jim Jinks

Type of Primary: Open Seat

Background and Candidates

State Sen. Jan Hochadel announced her retirement late last year after only two terms in the State Senate. This district has had close races within single digits the last two cycles, though Democrats are expected to easily retain the seat this cycle. State Rep. Jonathan “Jack” Fazzino faces off against Cheshire Town Council member Jim Jinks. The district contains Meriden and parts of Cheshire, Middlefield, and Middletown.

Fazzino won the party endorsement in May. He currently represents the 83rd State House seat, which he first won a narrow victory in 2022 by a 50.6-49.4 margin. Fazzino works as an attorney. Jinks on the other hand works is marketing. He is presenting himself as more of an “outsider” looking to bring change to Hartford. Jinks was first elected to the Cheshire Town Council in 2019. Jinks ran for the State House in 2020 against Rep. Craig Fishbein in the 90th state house seat, where he lost by 7 votes out of over 14,000 votes casted.

Both candidates support raising taxes on the wealthy, protecting residents from aggressive ICE tactics, and state investment into education. Both are similar on most major policy issues, though broadly Jinks has placed himself to the left of Fazzino. Jinks is supporting progressive challenger Josh Elliott in the governor’s race, while Fazzino supports incumbent Governor Ned Lamont. Jinks argues that Fazzino is a “political insider” and is benefiting from outside PAC money. Fazzino says Jinks’ argument is “bad faith, desperate attack…” noting the outside group is spending with no knowledge from him, or coordination.

Fazzino is running on his record as a state legislator, including education funding for Meriden and Cheshire schools. Jinks focuses his platform on affordability, shared values and civil rights. Both have noted their success running in a region of the state that is more of a toss-up in federal and local races.

Race Rating

Both candidates will likely do well in their hometowns. Fazzino in Meriden, and Jinks will do well in Cheshire. Fazzino does have name recognition in Cheshire as his district contains part of the town. Meriden has the largest number of Democrats in the district, which will likely benefit Fazzino.

Jinks’ progressive challenge will have a fair amount of support. Jinks has the support of many town council members in Cheshire. Fazzino has a number of prominent endorsements with strong support from Middletown officials, including Middletown Mayor Gene Nocera, State Rep. Kai Belton and State Rep. Brandon Chafee. Fazzino also has the backing of the party endorsement, Working Families Party, and Connecticut AFL-CIO. In addition, statewide officials, Attorney General William Tong, Treasurer Erick Russell and Comptroller Sean Scanlon have backed Fazzino.

Though Jinks will have a good performance in Cheshire, Fazzino’s more establishment backing and prominent labor organizations will likely win out in an older Democratic electorate.

Race Rating: Solid Fazzino

19th State Senate District – Republican Primary

Incumbent: Catherine Osten (D)

Candidates: Jason Guidone vs Mike France

Type of Primary: Opposing Party Nomination

Background and Candidates

Incumbent Democrat State Sen. Catherine Osten has managed to comfortably hold this Harris +6 seat since 2012. She ran ahead of the national ticket, winning 57-43 in 2024. Osten is one of the more moderate Democrats in the State Legislature. The 19th State Senate represents Columbia, Franklin, Lebanon, Hebron, Ledyard, Lisbon, Marlborough, Norwich, Sprague, and part of Montville.

Osten is widely favored in the Fall, but two Republicans, Jason Guidone and Mike France, seek to deny Osten an 8th term in the State Senate.

Guidone was the 2024 Republican nominee and is making a second bid for the seat. He is a former ESPN executive who lives in Hebron. Guidone is running on a standard Republican platform of lowering costs, protecting taxpayers, backing police and public safety, and putting families first. He states on his website that he is “not a career politician”.

France was the 2022 and 2024 Republican nominee for the 2nd Congressional District. He lost both races by wide margins to Rep. Joe Courtney. France is a former State Representative who served from 2015 to 2023 in the 42nd State House seat. He spent two decades in the Navy, before working as an engineer at the Submarine base. France is running on reducing government spending, ensuring a skilled workforce for the defense industry, and telling “people the truth”.

France was originally running for the 2nd Congressional District for a third try, though he dropped out of the race citing internal discontent with local Republican leaders. He said one of the reasons he entered the race was he felt he had a better chance to win in November than Guidone due to his experience and resume. Guidone has focused his attacks on France’s record in the legislature.

Race Rating

With both candidates not having much of a difference on policy, this is a race more based on perceived electability. Guidone has the party endorsement and a large support of the delegate base. Guidone got 77% of convention delegates, and France’s falling out with some local GOP officials likely does not help.

However, France does have more name ID due to his runs for Congress. The question is if voters will run it back, or go with France. I expect it to be a win for Guidone due to local support.

Race Rating: Likely Guidone

State House

4th State House District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Julio Concepcion (D)

Candidates: Julio Concepcion (Inc.) vs Venice Sotomayor

Type of Primary: Incumbent vs Challenger

Candidates and Background

In this deep-blue Hartford-based seat, Democratic incumbent Julio Concepcion faces Chef Venice Sotomayor. Concepcion first won his seat in a special election in 2018 after Incumbent Rep. Angel Arce resigned from the seat due to scandal.

This was one of two primaries in the state affected by mistakes made by the Secretary of State’s office. The CT Supreme Court ruled that Sotomayor could be on the ballot after Concepcion sought to have her petitions thrown out due to an administrative error. The CT Supreme Court ruled that Sotomayor should not be blamed for a mistake made by election officials. It’s common in Connecticut for incumbents to try to challenge signature petitions to prevent primaries. Sotomayor’s lawyer Alex Taubes accused Concepcion of trying to prevent the election unfairly.

As far as the race goes, there has been almost no coverage whatsoever. Concepcion does not have a campaign website or seem to be actively campaigning. Sotomayor has been running her campaign mostly on Facebook. She is running a challenge broadly on change and shaking up the status quo. Many of her posts lack much detail, and all her videos are just images with music of nothing specific. In one of her posts, she does list a few issues she’s running on; Real solutions, supporting business in underserved neighborhoods, affordable rentals/housing stability, and ensuring people don’t have to pick between their health and fresh food.

Race Rating

Sotomayor has a picture of Rep. John Larson holding one of her mailers, and has a graphic that Larson stands with her campaign. Though not the most formal of endorsements (and nothing says Larson explicitly endorsed Sotomayor), the reason for any involvement from Larson could be the fact that Concepcion endorsed Bronin over Larson in the congressional primary.

With a district with one of the lowest turnout rates in the state and a lack of active campaigning from Concepcion, Sotomayor could get a surprise upset. However, as the incumbent with the party endorsement, and Sotomayor relatively unknown, Concepcion remains favored.

Race Rating: Solid Concepcion

10th State House District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Henry Genga (D)

Candidates: Angie Parkinson vs Tyron Harris

Type of Primary: Open Seat

Background and Candidates

Longtime Incumbent Henry Genga decided to retire after 20 years in office. Genga is currently the oldest member of the State Legislature. He leaves behind a deep-blue Open Harris +38 seat based in East Hartford.

Two candidates face off, Angie Parkinson and Tyron Harris. Parkinson is an East Hartford Town Councilor, who also spent 25 years teaching social studies. Harris serves as the chair of the East Hartford Board of Education. He also serves as the town’s Human Resources Director.

Parkinson is running on healthcare for all, affordability, protecting/strengthening public education, tax fairness, fair wages, and protecting rights and democracy. Harris lists his campaign priorities as lowering the cost of living, strong public schools, affordable healthcare, prosperity/good jobs, and safe/united communities.

Race Rating

Parkinson won the party endorsement in the district. She also has the endorsements of Connecticut Working Families Party, AFL-CIO, American Federation of Teachers (AFT), and Building Trades.

Harris has the endorsement of East Hartford Mayor Connor Martin. Both candidates are prominent and are elected officials. Parkinson has a slight edge due to institutional support, but Harris should not be underestimated, holding the mayor’s endorsement. This race will likely be very close.

Race Rating: Lean Parkinson

31st State House District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Jill Barry (D)

Candidates: Moise “Moses” Carelus vs Anthony DiLizia

Type of Primary: Open Democratic Nomination, Incumbent running in Fall as Independent

Background and Candidates

Now why the long type of primary description. It’s a bit complicated. Out of nowhere, moderate Democrat State Rep. Jill Barry lost her party convention for her district by a large margin to Moses Carelus. Barry, who is one of the most conservative Democrats in the caucus, has found herself on the wrong side of progressives in her Glastonbury district who quietly saw her as vulnerable, as the district has shifted rapidly to the left in the Trump era. Barry’s voting with Republicans on a gun-safety measure, voting against the state budget, against paid family and medical leave, among other priorities, made her vulnerable.

Barry was caught off guard at the convention; as a single-town district, the party endorsement was open for any Democrat in the 31st State House Seat to cast a delegate vote. Organization took place behind the scenes without much attention, as to not alert Barry. We’ll cover more of this later, but Barry is cross-endorsed by Republicans, running as an Independent in the Fall after electing not to run in the primary, and has been on the campaign trail with Republican nominee for Governor Ryan Fazio in a Harris +25 seat.

With Barry not running in the primary, and Carelus holding the party endorsement, Glastonbury Town Councilor Anthony DiLizia decided to petition to jump into the race. DiLizia, an Army veteran, also serves as the executive director of a healthcare non-profit that delivers affirming/compassionate healthcare for the LGBTQIA+ community. Carelus, a former teacher and soccer coach, was recruited by a coalition of Democrats unhappy with Barry.

Carelus’ priorities include funding public education, affordability, holding Eversource accountable, and supporting Glastonbury’s future/standing up for Glastonbury’s values. DiLizia’s priorities include protecting CT from Trump’s policies, delivering lower costs, funding schools, supporting seniors, defending women’s rights, and fighting for affordable healthcare.

Race Rating

Though Carelus has the party endorsement and the early start to the campaign. DiLizia is well-known as an elected official, and petitioning indicates a level of baseline support. Also the convention was with a small group of voters, meaning that DiLizia might have a larger name ID than Carelus. However, due to Carelus’ early start, I would give the edge to him in this race, but DiLizia will make this a close race.

Race Rating: Likely Carelus

50th State House District – Republican Primary

Incumbent: Pat Boyd (D)

Candidates: Jadon MacCormack vs Anthony “Tony” Emilio

Type of Primary: Opposing Party Nomination

Background and Candidates

The most competitive general election district on the docket tonight with a primary. Incumbent Democrat Rep. Pat Boyd was unopposed last cycle in this seat based in Eastern Connecticut that Kamala Harris carried by a narrow 50-48 margin. Republicans were hoping to put a good nominee in this competitive seat.

This seat has garnered the most attention of any legislative primary in the state, for all the wrong reasons. Republicans at the district party convention nominated religious podcaster and political newcomer Jadon MacCormack as their nominee. Republicans did not do much vetting of MacCormack, so when MacCormack started posting about “Happy Straight Month” and calls for an “anti-pride month”, attention came to his previous posts. One of which included sharing an image of a noose in reaction to a gay marriage story, along with other horrid views such as saying women should not hold political power, and questioning the Holocaust death toll.

After the posts came out, Republicans immediately condemned MacCormack for his comments and told him to withdraw from the race. Unfortunately for them, MacCormack seemed to be enjoying the attention and stood by his “biblical beliefs. He went onto the radio show,  WTIC News/Talk 1080’s “Reese on the Radio” program, where he called for the government to put people to death who are “sodomites”, a comment that got national attention.

With MacCormack refusing to withdraw, and spending his time blasting Republican leaders for condemning him. Republicans scrambled to find a candidate to put on the ballot with days left until the petition deadline. Pomfret Businessman Anthony Emilio joined the race in light of MacCormack’s comments, saying “That’s not who our party is, and so I think it’s important that he – that someone runs against him and he loses.”Emilio, with efforts from the local and state GOP, rapidly gathered the signatures needed before the deadline. Emilio wants to focus on other issues. He said he wants the focus to be on Republican efforts to shrink government.

Race Rating

Republicans are in an awkward position, as MacCormack is the endorsed candidate on the ballot. With attention on the race in June and July, the hope for the GOP is that enough attention was put onto the race that Republicans voting in the primary know not to vote for MacCormack. The quick scramble, and Emilio having basically every Republican in the district, state Republican, and neighboring Republican state Reps and Senators’ endorsement should be enough to put him well ahead of MacCormack. Republicans do not want to be associated with MacCormack in any fashion, and having him as a general election candidate would not help.

Race Rating: Solid Emilio

71st State House District – Republican Primary

Incumbent: William Pizzuto (R)

Candidates: William “Bill” Pizzuto (Inc) vs Michael Grosso

Type of Primary: Incumbent vs Challenger

Background and Candidates

Rep. Bill Pizzuto (R-Middlebury) is the only Republican incumbent facing a challenge in the Legislature today. Pizzuto, who first won his seat in a 2022 special election, faces Waterbury Alderman Michael Grosso. The district contains all of Middlebury and part of Waterbury.

Pizzuto has won the last two general elections of this seat uncontested in a seat Donald Trump won 54-45. Pizzuto is a retired administrator who worked at UConn. Grosso, who is his first term as a Waterbury Alderman, is a driver groundsman and equipment operator.

Grosso has gone after Pizzuto for putting language in a bill that blocked a major warehouse development in Waterbury instead of letting local officials decide on the next steps for the project. He is running to ensure that local officials and residents have more say over projects instead of state officials. Grosso is also running on rejecting the status quo.

Grosso is running on lower taxes, more accountability, and economic growth. Pizzuto’s campaign platform also calls for fighting for lower property taxes, driving down energy prices, holding the line on spending, and backing emergency responders.

Race Rating

This should be an interesting race. I am unsure how much Republican primary voters have been focused on the warehouse project, or how they perceive Pizzuto’s reasons for blocking it. But local issues can be very salient in primaries such as this one.

Due to holding the party endorsement and being the incumbent , I give the edge to Pizzuto, though it’ll be interesting to see how each candidate performs in their hometown.

Race Rating: Likely Pizzuto

92nd State House District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Pat Dillon (D)

Candidates: Pat Dillon (Inc) vs Eli Sabin vs Justin Farmer

Type of Primary: Incumbent vs Challengers

Background and Candidates

Longtime State Rep. Pat Dillon faces two challengers in former New Haven Alder Eli Sabin and former Hamden Legislative Council Member Justin Farmer.

Dillon is the longest-serving House member seeking reelection this cycle. Dillon was first elected all the way back in 1984, when Ronald Reagan was on the ballot for a second term. 57 votes were all that separated Dillon from her first bid for the seat in 1982 against Republican incumbent Rep. Rosalind Berman. She later beat Berman in a rematch in 1984 by a 52-48 margin.

No Republican was able to recreate Berman’s unique coalition, as Dillon would win 80-20 in 1986 and never face a close race. The district is one of the most Democratic in the state, voting for Kamala Harris by a massive 84-13 margin. Dillon faced a primary once in her 42-year tenure before this year, in 2010 when she beat Sergio Rodriguez by a comfortable 66-34 margin.

Dillon, who is 77, faces primary challengers that are decades younger than her. Eli Sabin, 26, a former Alder who resigned in January to launch his campaign. He moved to Westville to establish residency. He represented Ward 1 (which contains Yale University) and Ward 7 (Downtown and East Rock) during his 6 years on the board. The district contains part of Ward 3, and Wards 23, 24, 25, 26. Sabin is running on generational change, casting his campaign as about “new energy” needed in the party.

Farmer, 32, a former three-term Hamden city councilmember, is a founding member of Connecticut DSA. He is one of two primary candidates backed by CT DSA this cycle (Maryam Khan is the other). He works as an environmental consultant. Farmer also casts his challenge on generational change with “different takes on what kinds of new leaders will emerge“.

Candidates agree on major issues, though Farmer positions himself to both Sabin and Dillon’s left as a DSA member. All three candidates are progressives who said they will push back against the Trump administration. Candidates are also running on affordability concerns and efforts to rein ICE.

Dillon is running on her record and ability to bring funding to the district, while Sabin and Farmer argue that the current political environment demands change.

Race Rating

With three candidates running, this will divide the vote up quite a bit. I believe that Sabin and Farmer will divide the anti-Dillon vote, leading Dillon to win with a large plurality or close to 50% of the vote. Neither Sabin or Farmer have been running to minimize the other candidate, so both will bring their bases to the polls. Farmer’s support from the DSA, for example, will give him a solid floor in the race.

Pat Dillon has the endorsements of the local Democratic Party with the party endorsement, its town chair, unions, advocacy groups, and a large number of elected officials. Sabin has the endorsements of a number of ward committee members but more notably New Haven Mayor Justin Elicker.

Due to Sabin and Farmer splitting the opposition vote, I expect Dillon to win somewhat comfortably tonight.

Race Rating: Likely Dillon

97th State House District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Al Paolillo

Candidates: Leland Moore vs Wildaliz Bermudez

Type of Primary: Open Seat

Background and Candidates

After Longtime State Sen. Martin Looney announced his retirement, it set off a quick game of musical chairs. Incumbent State Rep. Al Paolillo was Looney’s chosen successor. Paolillo faced no challenge for the seat. Paolillo left his State House seat, where two candidates quickly jumped into the race: Morris Cove Alder Leland Moore and Executive Director of New Haven Fair Rent Commission Wildaliz Bermúdez.

Moore, only five months into his first term as Alder, found himself running for a newly open State Representative seat. He won the Ward 18 Alder seat in a Democratic primary by a wide margin last year before easily winning the general election. Moore works as Assistant Attorney General, working under Attorney General William Tong. He has previously worked as a legislative advisor for the Board of Pardons and Paroles and as a staff attorney for the Connecticut Sentencing Commission.

Wildaliz Bermúdez is a former member of the Hartford City Council, where she was elected as part of the Working Families Party. She was on the council for 6 years before resigning to move to New Haven. On the council, she, along with other Working Families members, tried to move the council far left of center on issues such as immigration, tenant rights, police reform, and accountability. As Director of the Fair Rent Commission, Bermúdez operates the system behind the commission, from mediation of conflicts to investigation to educating city residents.

Both Moore and Bermúdez have similar policy positions on major issues. In a radio interview, both agreed on a number of goals such as more local education aid, higher marginal taxes on millionaires, ditching a $45 million+ plan for a pool, reconsidering Yale’s special state-given tax breaks if they cave to the Trump administration, and that the state should pursue stricter regulation of private utilities. Both praised each other’s work in the community during the interview.

Race Rating

Moore won the party endorsement earlier this year. He also has the endorsement of President Pro Tempore of the Sen. Martin Looney and current Rep. Al Paolillo. Moore has also received support from CT AFL-CIO and AFT Connecticut. Moore also recieed the endorsement of his boss, Attorney General William Tong.

Bermúdez has the support of New Haven Mayor Justin Elicker. Notably, the second candidate Elicker has backed, who doesn’t have the party endorsement. Bermúndz also has the support of Former State Rep. Bob Megan and Former Mayor Toni Harp.

Moore seems to have consolidated establishment support and union support, but the endorsement of Elicker is notable for Bermúdez. I believe Moore is favored, but Bermúdez will keep this a competitive race.

Race Rating: Likely Moore

118th State House District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Frank Smith (D)

Candidates: Toni Lombardi vs Chris Saley

Type of Primary: Open Seat

Background and Candidates

Incumbent State Rep. Frank Smith is retiring after three terms in the State House. Smith’s departure in this Milford-based district allowed two Democrats to jump into this open seat: Milford Alderwoman Toni Lombardi and Milford Director of Public Works Chris Saley.

Both candidates’ platforms touch upon similar issues. Lombardi’s platform emphasises public education, tackling the cost of living, and focusing on coastal resiliency, specifically investment in flood mitigation and infrastructure improvements that protect Milford’s shoreline. Saley owns the Bridgewater Restaurant and owns a local real estate development company. His platform focuses on supporting small businesses and encouraging local economic growth, strong schools, affordability, and protecting Milford’s 17+ miles of beaches from chronic erosion (beach resiliency).

Race Rating

Lombardi has the party endorsement. She also has the support of the CT Working Families Party, AFL-CIO, and American Federation of Teachers. Saley has the support of retiring State Rep. Frank Smith

Lombardi’s institutional support should be enough to get her a win here, but Saley could come close with Smith’s endorsement.

Race Rating: Likely Lombardi

Conclusion

Candidates with the party endorsement are still widely favored in Connecticut primaries. Tonight will be a good test to see how much that holds up. Party endorsements in CT lead to wide institutional support from elected officials and labor unions. However, many challengers have chances for upsets tonight, but the focus will likely be on the Democratic incumbents in SD-2 and HD-92, while also seeing what happens in HD-50. There are not too many ideological primaries on the docket, but an opportunity in some districts for change will be watched.

As always, these ratings are forecasts based on the information available before Election Day—not guarantees. I’ll be following the results as they come in tonight and will revisit these predictions afterward to evaluate what I got right, what I got wrong, and what the outcomes reveal about Connecticut politics.

Thanks for Reading!
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If you have a question, tip, corrections, or want to contact me for any reason. Please email contact@ctelectionguide.com

Rep. Josh Elliott celebrates at the state Democratic Convention, Saturday, May 16, 2026, in Hartford, Conn. Credit to: Jessica Hill / CT Mirror

Overview

Welcome to the CT Election Guide’s August 11th Ultimate Primary Guide.

In Part 1 of the guide, I will cover statewide and congressional primaries. In Part 2, I will cover primaries in the state legislature.

There are four primaries to cover. We will start with the Democratic primaries for Governor and the 1st Congressional Distrct. Governor Ned Lamont and Rep. John Larson face challengers for renomination. Than we will cover two Republican primaries where Republican challengers hope to challenge Democratic incumbents in the 4th and 5th Congressional Districts

I will also give a rating for each race and a prediction of who I think will emerge victorious on the 11th. There are several competitive races on the ballot, so expect some fascinating results.

Let’s get started!

Voting Information

Per state rules, Connecticut is a closed primary state. This means only registered voters of that party can vote in a primary election on August 11th. In Connecticut, a plurality of voters are registered unaffiliated (about 42.2% as of 2025); that proportion of state voters will be unable to vote in the election. However, unaffiliated voters have until August 10th at noon to register with a party, if they plan to vote on primary day.

If a voter wants to switch parties to vote in a primary (From Democratic to Republican, or vice versa), they had to do so by May 11th. If a voter wanted to vote during early voting and they are unaffiliated, they had until July 31st at Noon. A new voter can file a voter application in person with the registrar of voters in their town by noon on the business day prior to the day they want to vote.

In Connecticut, only contested primaries take place on the ballot. If a race is uncontested, there is no primary in that district. Due to a Democratic primary for Governor, every registered Democrat in the state can vote in the primary.

There are no statewide primaries for Republicans, as all statewide offices were decided at the May Convention, and no challengers met the requirements or attempted to force a primary. There are primaries in some congressional districts and legislative seats. If you’re a Registered Republican looking to vote, you can use this map to see if you live within the district boundaries. There are primaries in the 4th and 5th Congressional Districts, the 19th State Senate Seat, and the 50th and 71st State House Seats.

Early voting is available for this election. Early voting takes place from August 3rd to August 9th. Extended voting hours will take place on the 4th and 6th.

Monday, August 3rd – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Tuesday, August 4th – 8:00 am to 8:00 pm
Wednesday, August 5th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Thursday, August 6th – 8:00 am to 8:00 pm
Friday, August 7th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Saturday, August 8th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Sunday, August 9th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm

Voters must vote in the assigned early voting location for their town of voter registration. The list of early voting locations can be found here. The majority of the early voting locations are in Town Hall, community centers, or the library.

Absentee ballots are also available for this election. One can request a ballot at the online portal here. Starting this cycle, after a 2024 voting referendum passed, voters no longer need to provide a specific excuse to vote in any election. Voters can request an absentee ballot for any reason. If voters need a paper application for an absentee ballot, use this link and scroll down to print a paper application. The deadline to request an absentee ballot is August 10th.

If you need to hand out an absentee ballot application to someone, please follow the state’s strict rules concerning this action. There are limits on who you can get an absentee ballot application for (immediate family), and the number of ballots you can request.

CT Election Guide Race Rating System

These ratings represent my assessment of each race based on available polling, fundraising, endorsements, campaign activity, geographic strengths, and the overall political environment. They are forecasts—not guarantees—and races can shift before Election Day.

• Solid – Expected margin of 15% or more
• Likely – Expected margin of 8–15%
• Lean – Expected margin of 3–8%
• Toss-Up – Expected margin of less than 3%

Statewide Primaries

Governor – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Ned Lamont

Candidates: Gov. Ned Lamont (Inc.) vs State Rep. Josh Elliott

Type of Primary: Incumbent vs Challenger

2022 Election Result: Lamont +13 – Ned Lamont (D) – 56.0%, Bob Stefanowski (R) – 43.0%

2024 Presidential Results: Harris +14.5 – Kamala Harris (D) – 56.4%, Donald Trump (R) – 41.9%

2026 General Election Rating: Solid D

Background

On March 13th, 2006, a wealthy businessman from Greenwich, Ned Lamont, launched a primary campaign to challenge sitting Senator Joe Lieberman for his seat in the U.S Senate. Lieberman was heavily criticized for his support of the war in Iraq and his close relationship with President Bush at the time. This challenge would start the beginning of Ned Lamont’s prominent place in Connecticut politics.

Lamont’s candidacy at the time became more of a single-issue primary against the War, and Lamont was able to seize the progressive energy of the 2006 cycle, culminating in an upset win over Lieberman in the primary. He later lost the general election that November. Lamont was able to grasp the state’s progressive flank; his challenge to the left of Lieberman was notable in a state that rarely saw contested primaries against incumbents.

Now, two decades later, Lamont, the two-term governor, is attempting a third four-year term in this solidly Democratic state. Lamont now finds himself as part of the “establishment” facing the irony of being challenged to his left by State Rep. Josh Elliott (D-Hamden). The first primary against an incumbent Governor since 1978.

Who is Josh Elliott?

State Rep. Josh Elliott first came into the legislature after winning a seat in the legislature in 2016. Elliott holds a BA from Ithaca College and received a JD from Quinnipiac School of Law. He entered the race before House Speaker Brendan Sharkey announced his retirement. Elliott’s campaign says he is the reason he pushed Sharkey into retirement, which is prominently claimed on his website, though Sharkey disagrees with that assertion in strong terms.

Elliott is a founder of the Progressive caucus in the legislature, which has slowly grown over the last few cycles. Elliott has played a large role in supporting economic and labor protections. Two of the bills he sponsored were for Paid Family & Medical Leave and for Paid Sick Days. He has pushed for Connecticut to be the first state to remove the cost for incarcerated individuals to make phone calls to loved ones. He currently serves as Deputy Speaker and Majority Caucus Co-Chair.

This is not Josh Elliott’s first attempt at higher office. In 2022, Elliott ran for the open Secretary of State race. It did not go so well for him. He was the only candidate who failed to qualify for the ballot at the convention. Elliott was also running to maintain his seat in the legislature during that race. He bowed out, electing not to gather signatures to petition, and ran for re-election to his state house seat. Candidates returning to their state legislative seats around convention time when they don’t do well is common in Connecticut.

However, during Elliott’s second attempt for higher office. Elliott is simultaneously running for both his State House Seat (88th District) and the Governor’s Race. Elliott was noncommittal about his run for governor for most of the cycle. He at one point said he would only challenge Lamont only if he won the party endorsement at the convention, saying he didn’t want to run a Line B candidacy. Earlier this year, however, Elliott decided that he spent so much time on his campaign that he has to see it all the way. He also did not risk losing his House seat, something Elliott said is important to him to help make change in the state.

Elliott successfully raised the $335,000 needed to qualify for public financing. This qualified him for $3.75 million grant. He got the money about 5 weeks before the August primary, leaving him a quick turnaround to get his message on the airwaves. Though he was allowed to run for both his State House seat and Governor at the same time, he could not spend any of his grant money on his State House seat. To avoid any issues with campaign finance rules, Elliott hasn’t even formed a campaign committee for his State House Race, as he plans to spend no money. Elliott doesn’t face any Democratic opposition in the primary and was nominated for another term at the convention for his seat. Though he faces a Republican opponent, Elliott’s 88th State House Seat is one Kamala Harris won 70-28, so he doesn’t need to spend much of anything in the general.

Campaign Issues

Elliott’s campaign has been defined by anger towards Lamont’s refusal to tax the rich more. Progressive anger towards the Governor also increased when Lamont vetoed two bills during the 2025 legislative session. One on affordable housing, and another on benefits for striking workers. Elliott’s vowed that the Governor would face a challenge after those vetoes, and eventually he became the candidate to challenge the Governor. Lamont did pass a version of the affordable housing bill later in 2025, though some argue the bill wasn’t as strong as the initial one. Though many agreed it was still beneficial. Lamont did not pass the bill for striking workers.

Elliott has proposed a similar millionaire tax to Massachusetts, though at it’s core Elliott hopes for a “fair tax structure” that taxes those who make $1 million annually. Elliott also does not support the state’s fiscal guardrails, enacted in 2017 to force the state to pay down pension debt. He believes it should be changed to allow easier investments for infrastructure, investment, and housing. Elliott has also proposed less reliance on local property taxes.

One of Elliott’s more aggressive proposals is to take on Eversource by allowing towns to individually own their utility infrastructure. To allow a public option that can allow municipalities cheaper rates, or for towns to form or join electric utilities in an effort to cut Eversource’s power away. The governor has argued that this proposal will cost tens of billions of dollars that the state does not have.

Elliott has also attacked the Governor in more personal terms, saying “his campaign is where good ideas go to die”. He also has advertisements on air attacking Lamont’s wealth and how his family has been rich for generations. Due to his personal wealth, Elliott says Lamont cannot understand the state’s affordability. He also heavily critiqued the governor for taking credit for policies passed by the legislature, saying the Governor didn’t actually do anything. “That’s what a billionaire does. They take other people’s ideas and say ‘Well, this was his all along.’” Elliott said. He also called the Governor “dangerously naive” during the debate, and said Lamont’s campaign is the “Temu version” of his. Elliott did attack Lamont as a billionaire a few times, though the very wealthy Ned Lamont is not known as a billionaire specifically.

Ned Lamont spent the majority of the cycle ignoring Josh Elliott, trying to avoid pushing attention to his challenger. However, Elliott slowly gained some momentum and qualified for a primary with 25% of convention delegates. Lamont has had to be more on the defensive end.

The Governor has touted his accomplishments during his tenure as Governor, including a minimum wage increase, actions to replace SNAP benefits, and investments in early childhood education. The governor has also emphasized fiscal responsibility as he has focused on paying off the state’s heavy pension debt. Lamont, in the last few weeks, has ramped up his attacks on Elliott, specifically at the debate, dismissing Elliott as someone full of sound bites and no accomplishments. In the final week of the campaign, Lamont has started to go more negative on Elliott, attacking him for missed votes during his campaign.

Race Rating

Nationally, primary season this cycle shows there is an energy in the Democratic Party for more progressive policy and overall change. In addition, any person running for a third governor term is likely to face some level of opposition for “overstaying their welcome”. I believe this race will be closer than many people expect.

Governor Lamont is favored in this race. I see him winning by around 20 points. I do believe Elliott will win Hamden and likely New Haven. He will maintain steady support around the state, with a few pockets of winning towns. It’ll be interesting to see how Elliott does in the Farmington Valley, with a lot of upper-middle-class Democratic voters showing more progressive bona fides; Elliott may be able to get some strong performances in towns like West Hartford, Glastonbury, Farmington, and Avon. Connecticut hasn’t had too many primaries with a clear “establishment vs progressive” battle. The closest was the 2018 Lt Gov Democratic primary between former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz and labor organizer Eva Zimmerman. Bysiewicz won 62-38, but Zimmerman was commended for a great performance against a longtime statewide figure. I think Elliott will have a similar performance and pattern: outright winning a few towns, but holding a steady 35%-40% in a majority of towns.

Lamont holds very strong support from the legislature, though a few members of the progressive caucus back Elliott, including State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest and State Rep. Laurie Sweet. This is the only race with a substantial amount of recent polling (for a Connecticut race at least). The latest poll from Impact CT had Lamont leading Elliott 48-21. A decrease for Lamont, who led their earlier poll 58-20, but notably didn’t show much of an increase for Elliott. Many voters are undecided, and I suspect many of those voters will go to Elliott.

The governor does have a few things in his favor; all polling indicates a stark age divide. Elliott does very well with younger voters; Lamont dominates with older voters. The latter come out at much higher rates in late summer primaries. In addition, Lamont still remains popular with Democratic primary voters overall, holding a 63% favorable, 20% unfavorable rating in the same poll.

Most polling has shown Lamont in the 48-55% range, though Elliott has steadily risen from 7% in the first UNH poll in November to 23% in the one from Late June. Lamont led 53-23 in that poll. A final poll from Sacred Heart University/WFSB/CT Insider showed Lamont with a massive 57-22 margin over Elliott.

Lamont is heavily favored, but don’t count out a strong performance from Josh Elliott. An outright win would break CT politics, but stranger things have happened.

Race Rating: Solid Lamont
Prediction: Lamont +20 (Lamont 60%, Elliott 40%)

Congressional Primaries

1st Congressional District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: John Larson

Candidates: Rep. John Larson (Inc.) vs Luke Bronin vs Jillian Gilchrest vs Ruth Fortune

Type of Primary: Incumbent vs Challengers

2024 General Election Result: Larson +28.3 – John Larson (D) – 63.1%, Jim Griffin(R) – 34.8%

2024 Presidential Results: Harris +22.9 – Kamala Harris (D) – 60.6%, Donald Trump (R) – 37.7%

2026 General Election Rating: Solid D

Background

For the first time in modern state history, an Incumbent member of the U.S. House of Representatives faces a battle for renomination. Connecticut was the last state to adopt legally regulated primaries, which passed in the legislature in 1955. However, this method only allowed a challenge based on convention delegates, not signatures. In 2003, the General Assembly ruled that candidates can petition their way onto the ballot if they fail to meet the convention delegate threshold.

Rep. John Larson of East Hartford has had nothing much to worry about electorally after he won his primary in 1998 in an open seat by a close 46-42 margin against Secretary of State Miles Rapoport. A primary challenger has never made the ballot against Larson, though former Capitol Hill Staffer Muad Hrezi made a solid attempt in 2022. He fundraised over $500,000, but did not gather enough delegates or signatures to make the ballot.

Larson, a mainstay of Connecticut politics, has held top positions in the House of Representatives during his nearly three-decade-long tenure, including a stint as the Chair of the House Democratic Caucus from 2009 to 2013. His main issue has been Social Security, an issue he has worked hard to promote with his landmark bill Social Security 2100 Act.

The congressman now faces three challengers looking to deny him a 15th term in Congress.

Candidates

Larson’s most prominent challenger is Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin. Bronin, who was the mayor of the capital city from 2016 to 2024, won his 2015 Democratic primary by knocking out the incumbent Mayor Pedro Segarra by a 55-45 margin. He easily won his 2015 and 2019 mayoral races in a deep-blue city.

Bronin is known for his high-profile background. A BA and JD from Yale University, Rhodes Scholar, a deployment in Afghanistan where he worked on the US Military Anti-Corruption task force. He was Deputy Assistant Secretary of Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes at the US Department of the Treasury during the Obama Administration. Before launching his mayoral campaign, he served as Chief Legal Counsel to Governor Dannel Malloy.

Larson’s other opponents include State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest (D-West Hartford) and Hartford Board of Education member Ruth Fortune.

Jillian Gilchrest entered the political scene in 2018 after she ousted 12-term incumbent State Rep. Andy Fleischmann in a Democratic Primary in a 52-48 victory. Gilchrest is known as one of the most progressive members in the Connecticut Legislature, championing reproductive freedom and establishing Connecticut’s paid family and medical leave program. Before she entered state politics, she worked in women’s health, safety, and social justice organizations in leadership and advocacy roles. She also has previously served on the West Hartford Board of Education and works as an adjunct faculty member at the University of Saint Joseph and the University of Hartford.

Ruth Fortune was the first person to enter the race to challenge Larson. Appointed to the Hartford Board of Education in 2024, she came to the United States from Haiti as a young undocumented immigrant. She testified in favor of financial aid for undocumented students before the General Assembly in 2016. Fortune, a graduate of UConn School of Law, is an associate at Wiggin & Dana. She specializes as a trust and estate lawyer.

Campaign

John Larson thought Luke Bronin was kidding when he told him he was planning to run for his congressional seat. Bronin told Larson to reconsider seeking a term at his age. Larson told him that he would run for another term. The formerly close allies have headed towards a brutal primary.

The race didn’t receive a ton of attention until Bronin upset Larson at the convention for the party endorsement. After Larson’s allies maneuvered to ensure Jillian Gilchrest made the ballot with 15% of delegates, an effort to hopefully split the challenger vote, Bronin took a lead in the second round in a room with about 400 delegates and won the party endorsement 52-48 over Larson. This meant that Bronin would appear on top of the ballot in the primary. Challengers are sorted alphabetically, which meant Larson would appear at the bottom.

Fortune had to take the difficult path and gather signatures to qualify for the ballot as she did not receive enough delegates. She successfully did, and made history as the first person to successfully petition onto the ballot against an incumbent member of Congress.

In a race where candidates agreed on the majority of issues, the campaign focused on the few differences they had in policy. Overall, the candidates are all progressives, though Gilchrest and Fortune are to the left of Bronin and Larson.

Campaign fundraising emerged as a main issue in the primary. Larson has attacked Bronin for being a “corporate moderate” candidate of the billionaires, saying Bronin is there to their bidding. Bronin fought back, saying he is progressive, saying he wants to tax the rich and abolish ICE, attacking Larson for also taking donations from billionaires, and saying he’s not there to do anyone’s bidding. Bronin has attacked Larson for fundraising with PACs money, which is about half of Larson’s fundraising. With Larson and Bronin dominating fundraising, Gilchrest has attacked both of them for having big money in politics, saying she is the only candidate working to get “big money out of politics”.

Though Larson argued for months that his challengers weren’t different from him on policy, running on his experience and his leadership on Social Security. He has changed his argument to position Bronin to the right of him, saying he’s the true progressive. His initial argument led Bronin to focus his bid on a generational argument for change, as Bronin hasn’t staked out any major issue different from Larson’s record. Bronin says in his ads that John Larson is a good man, but “I’m running for Congress right now because I think we’ve got to bring a whole different type of energy to this fight…” Bronin says in one of his ads.

Race Rating

Gilchrest and Fortune have struggled to fundraise in this race. Both have raised $160,000 and $105,000 respectively over the course of their campaigns. Though admirable, both have focused on grassroots efforts and talking to voters. The issue is they’ve been drowned out by the $3,000,000 fundraising of Bronin, and $2,700,000 fundraising of Larson, leaving this race as between two candidates.

Larson has the endorsements of the federal delegation and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. He has focused on his labor support, touting endorsements from Labor, Trade, Planned Parenthood, Etc. Larson also holds many endorsements from his hometown of East Hartford and from multiple state legislative members.

Bronin did get a national endorsement from former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg. In Connecticut, Bronin has received local endorsements from several elected officials in Hartford, including Mayor Arunan Arunanpalam and Council President TJ Clarke. Bronin has also received endorsements from Newington Mayor Jon Trister, Rocky Hill Mayor Allan Smith, Cromwell Mayor James Demetriades, and Wethersfield Mayor Ken Lesser.

Gilchrest has received a number of endorsements in the State Legislature, including a group endorsement signed by 18 of her female legislative colleagues. Gilchrest also holds endorsements from progressive groups such as Indivisible CT and Citizens Impeachment.

My expectations for the primary are a narrow win for Larson. I 100% believe a Bronin upset is possible. Larson, however, has an edge due to the opposition vote being split between three candidates. There were only two polls in the race. One was a Larson internal from January (Larson 49-26), and one was a VoteVets poll (an organization that supports Bronin) that had Bronin leading Larson (Bronin 38-30), but both are months old. Although private polls have shown Bronin with a lead, nothing has been publicly released in months. One thing Bronin has going for him is that, unlike the Governor’s race, the VoteVets poll had him doing well with both older and younger voters, indicating, unlike Elliott, he doesn’t need to rely on younger voters for victory.

Larson will get a large margin out of East Hartford. Bronin will likely win Hartford. The question is how the rest of the 27-town district will go. West Hartford is a bit of a toss-up as Gilchrest will get a fair amount of the vote in her hometown. Larson will do well in towns like Bristol with a large working-class population. The more rural towns in the northern part of the district will likely favor Larson, though Bronin has been making a play there as well. Middletown is a toss-up with a mix of both progressive university voters (Wesleyan) and working-class voters. Expectations from polling are that Ruth Fortune will get about 5% of the vote, and Jillian Gilchrest will get about 10% of the vote.

Overall, this appears to be a highly competitive primary between Larson and Bronin. Larson enters Election Day with a slight advantage due to his established political network and the likelihood that the anti-Larson vote remains divided among multiple candidates. However, Bronin’s fundraising, endorsements, and reported private polling suggest an upset would not be surprising. The race is likely to be decided by turnout and the margins in the larger towns in the district (away from the candidates’ bases), including West Hartford, Middletown, Manchester, Windsor and Bristol.

Race Rating: Lean Larson

Prediction: Larson +3 (Larson 45%, Bronin 42%, Gilchrest 9%, Fortune 4%)

4th Congressional District – Republican Primary

Incumbent: Jim Himes (D)

Candidates: Michael Goldstein vs Daniel Miressi

Type of Primary: Opposition Party Nomination

2024 General Election Result: Himes +23.8 – Jim Himes (D) – 61.1%, Michael Goldstein (R) – 37.3%

2024 Presidential Results: Harris +23.4 – Kamala Harris (D) – 60.9%, Donald Trump (R) – 37.5%

2026 General Election Rating: Solid D

Candidates

Michael Goldstein, a physician and attorney from Greenwich, faces Daniel Miressi, a hockey coach and former professional hockey player, for the right to take on Democratic Rep. Jim Himes in the 4th Congressional District in November. No Republican has won the district since former Rep. Chris Shays won the district in 2006. Himes would unseat Shays in 2008.

Goldstein was the 2024 Republican nominee in the District. He also ran for the nomination in 2020 and 2022. In 2020, he did not qualify for the primary after forming a campaign committee. In 2022, Goldstein lost the Republican primary to party-endorsed Jayme Stevenson by a 40-60 margin. Goldstein has the party endorsement for the second time in a row.

Miressi qualified for the primary at the party convention. Miressi considered running in the district in 2024, but ultimately did not. He was also the Republican nominee for the 25th State Senate against Connecticut State Senate Majority Leader Bob Duff in 2022. He lost the general election 35-61 to Duff

On his campaign website, Goldstein emphasizes his experience as both a doctor and lawyer to pinpoint issues residents face. He also proposes the Goldstein Plan on issues he supports and opposes. Some of these include restoring the SALT deduction, ending cashless bail, focusing on parental rights, unwavering support for Israel, securing our borders, and protecting the Second Amendment.

On his campaign website, Miressi first explains that Republicans are the “big tent party” in Connecticut. His campaign platform is Family, Community, and Economy. He says Himes has forgotten what it means to be a “Nutmegger”. He says he will fight to lower the cost of living, parental rights, and will focus on election integrity and trust, while focusing on accountability in Washington.

Race Rating

Due to two recent primaries in this district, we do actually have some information on how a primary could go. Goldstein is favored due to the party endorsement and name ID from repeated runs in the seat. Goldstein’s primary victory in 2024 was supported by winning 79% of the vote in Greenwich, which made the margin of difference in the race.

It should be noted that turnout has been very low in recent primaries in the seat. Low-profile primaries in a Safe Democratic district likely contributed to low turnout. Only 16,517 ballots were cast in the 2022 Republican primary, and only 8,025 ballots were cast in the 2024 Republican primary. This could lead to an unexpected result.

Neither candidate has raised much money. Goldstein has raised 21k, and taken a 25k loan, and Miressi has raised 10k. Goldstein’s numerous runs may lead voters to want a different alternative, especially as this is his fourth run for this office. Despite having the party endorsement in 2024, Goldstein only won 54-46. Due to this, Miressi may have a chance at an upset, but Goldstein is favored.

Race Rating: Likely Goldstein

5th Congressional District – Republican Primary

Incumbent: Jahana Hayes (D)

Candidates: Chris Shea vs Jonathan De Barros

Type of Primary: Opposition Party Nomination

2024 General Election Result: Hayes +6.8 – Jahana Hayes (D) – 53.4%, George Logan (R) – 46.6%

2024 Presidential Results: Harris +6.2– Kamala Harris (D) – 52.0%, Donald Trump (R) – 46.4%

2026 General Election Rating: Solid D

Candidates

Chris Shea, a firefighter and retired Navy Seal, faces community leader Jonathan De Barros for the right to take on Rep. Jahana Hayes in Connecticut’s most competitive congressional seat. After almost unseating Hayes in 2022, the CT GOP spends most of their limited resources in the 5th District.

Chris Shea is the preferred candidate by the CT GOP. He has fundraised far more than any other Republican congressional candidate in the state, raising $311,000 this cycle. He did raise about the same amount of money as Rep. Hayes in Q1 this year, 163k to 166k. Shea founded the organization Hero to Hero, a nonprofit that encourages military veterans to consider second careers as first responders. Since retiring from his military career, Shea works as a firefighter lieutenant at the North Haven Fire Department. His military career started when he joined the US Navy in 1991. His time in service included operational tours with deployments and various joint special operations in Sarajevo, Afghanistan, and Mexico.

Jonathan De Barros is the founder of the Phoenix Youth Foundation, a nonprofit that works to mentor at-risk youth, promote vocational training, and teaching conflict resolution. De Barros has received attention for his role in the shooting and killing a young man in October 1996. De Barros was convicted of murder, attempted murder, and assault with a firearm. In 2000, the Connecticut Appellate Court overturned his original murder conviction, ruling that a trial judge blocked critical evidence supporting De Barros’s claim of self-defense in the shooting.

His manslaughter charge went to trial again, but ended in a hung jury. De Barros eventually accepted a plea bargain under the Alford Doctrine, which stated he could maintain his innocence, but the state had enough evidence to potentially convict him. The Connecticut Board of Pardons and Paroles issued De Barros an absolute pardon in 2022. De Barros says he was wrongfully incarcerated for 19 years due to flawed prosecution and maintains his self-defense view.

De Barros filed a defamation suit during his campaign against four supporters of Shea for allegedly calling him a “murderer”. Shea is not a defendant in the suit. The suit seeks a gag order to stop the four defendants from repeating statements about him being a murderer. De Barros says the supporters said those statements on Facebook Live broadcasts, social media, and during the Republican nominating convention.

Campaign Issues and Race Rating

Both Shea and De Barros align themselves as conservative Republicans. De Barros calls himself a “MAGA patriot”. De Barros has heavily critiqued other Republicans in the state. Last year, the Capitol Police investigated him for social media posts about Republican State Chair Ben Proto, Senate Minority Leader Stephen Harding, and Sen. Rob Sampson, but the Capitol Police determined nothing De Barros said was a threat.

Shea’s campaign website shows issues focusing on protecting families. Specifically, stopping illegal immigration and “standing against woke ideologies that threaten our children’s future”. He also emphasizes lowering the cost of living by reducing the tax burden and promoting practical housing solutions. He also says America should stand with Israel, advocates for American military strength, and will fight to improve the VA.

De Barros stakes out similar positions on immigration, dedicating effort to keep borders secure. He does add more specific positions, adding that any governor or elected official who obstructs immigration and customs enforcement should be removed from office and arrested by Homeland Security. He also takes positions on improving the VA and wants to enact laws that would prevent bills in Connecticut that allow parents not to be informed. De Barros promotes charter schools as an alternative to a failing education system. He stakes out his plans as a “New Reconstruction for the 5th district,” akin to the Reconstruction after the Civil War to rebuild trust in institutions.

Shea is favored here on Tuesday. His strong support from local officials and strong fundraising should give him a solid victory. However, similar to the 4th Congressional District, turnout will be low, so an upset isn’t impossible depending on who can get their base out.

It’s unknown how the defamation lawsuit will play out with voters. It is one of the few things in this primary that has broken into the news cycle. De Barros may be able to generate some excitement among his base supporters. Also, with Shea being stronger with party support, De Barros may be able to generate an “Establishment” vs “Outsider” message, which can be effective in a Republican primary where many primary voters are unhappy with the state party leaders for continued losses in the state.

De Barros has to use more of a grassroots approach, having fundraised only $25,000 this cycle, about 1/12 of Shea’s haul. The money Shea has will likely allow him to get his name more in front of voters. Shea’s profile is also appealing for a district close to the federal level that may attract voters.

Race Rating: Solid Shea

Summary

Connecticut’s August 11th primaries offer a snapshot of where both parties head going into the general election. Notably for Democrats, the Governor’s race will test the strength of the party’s progressive wing against an incumbent who remains broadly popular. The 1st Congressional District could produce one of the most watched contests of the night. Luke Bronin can truly upset Rep. John Larson, but structural advantages remain for both incumbents. If Bronin wins, it would create a shock for incumbents across the country, as Congressman Larson has faced no scandals or a prominent reason to be out of office. In addition, this is not a race that has faced an ideological argument for change. Races on generational change on its own rarely take out incumbents.

Primaries for prominent offices in Connecticut are a rare occasion, and against incumbents is almost unheard of. An incumbent Governor hasn’t faced a primary since 1978. An incumbent member of the House in Connecticut has never faced a primary at all. It’s no secret that we are in a political environment where we may see more primaries in Connecticut’s future.

Low-turnout primaries in the 4th and 5th Congressional Districts could lead to unexpected results, and upsets have been common in recent Connecticut Republican primaries. Whether these contests reaffirm the political status quo or signal shifting coalitions within Connecticut’s parties, the results will provide valuable insight into the state’s political landscape heading into November.

As always, these ratings are forecasts based on the information available before Election Day—not guarantees. I’ll be following the results as they come in on August 11 and will revisit these predictions afterward to evaluate what I got right, what I got wrong, and what the outcomes reveal about Connecticut politics. Stay tuned for Part 2, where we cover legislative primaries.

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Norwich Mayor Swarnjit Singh was sworn in on Dec. 2 by CT Lt. Governor Susan Bysiewicz, alongside his family and Gov Ned Lamont. Source: Norwich Bulletin

2025 Elections Nationally in Review

It’s the last day of the year; therefore, everyone likes to reminisce on what happened in the past year. Election-wise, it was another crazy year. The year started with President Donald Trump being inaugurated as the country’s 47th President in a political comeback. Nationally and statewide, Republicans were jubilant at the gains they made across many minority communities and younger voters. Democrats struggled to figure out how Trump made his political comeback, with a lot of soul-searching … and pointing blame on their political misfortune.

By the end of the year, Trump’s approval rating had dropped to 36% (Gallup), and Republicans across the country and in Connecticut could feel it. Democrats have dominated numerous special elections. According to the election publication, The Downballot‘s 2025 Big Board, Democrats have overperformed the 2024 Presidential Results by 13.9 points across 65 races ranging from the State Legislature to Congress.

In November, Democrats saw hope. Zohran Mamdani won the mayorship in New York City, giving progressives a new voice on the national stage. Democrats Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill won dominantly in their gubernatorial victories in New Jersey and Virginia last month. Spanberger won by over 15 points against Republican Lt. Gov Winsome Sears. Sherrill, despite narrowing polls, won by an unexpectedly large 14-point margin against former State Assemblyman and 2021 Republican Nominee Jack Ciattarelli.

Things can change quickly in one year. Not uncommon in politics, but you never know which trends will stay and which political trends will disappear within a political cycle. Politics is fairly cyclical; it’s up to the opposition to use it to their advantage, especially at a time when voters are unhappy.

2025 Elections in CT

Connecticut Democrats had an amazing 2025 cycle. Democrats flipped the top office and control in 29 towns across the state. Numbers came from CT Mirror and CT Secretary of State Website. Notable wins for Democrats include

• Democrat Swarnjit Singh won 59-41 over Republican Stacy Gould for Norwich Mayor. Swarnjit also became the first Sikh mayor in Connecticut.
• Democrat Laurie Bursten won in an upset 52-48 against Republican incumbent Lori Spielman in the First Selectman race in Ellington.
• Democrat Bobby Sanchez won 58-40 against Republican Sharon Beloin-Saavedra in the New Britain Mayor Race. Sanchez flipped the seat for Democrats for the first time in 12 years.
• Democrat Rich Smith won against Republican incumbent Tony Giannattasio 55-45 in the Milford Mayoral Race.
• Democrat David Chess knocked out two-term Republican incumbent Laura Hoydick 55-45 in the Stratford Mayoral Race. Though Kamala Harris won by 19 points in 2024 in Stratford, Hoydick won by 26 points in 2021. Hoydick seems to have lost from Democrats not crossing over this year, unlike her previous victories.
• Democratic challenger Bruce Walczak knocked out Republican incumbent Jeff Capeci in Newtown’s First Selectman race. Walczak won 56-44.
• Former Mayor Democrat Ellen Zoppo-Sassu narrowly won back her seat against Republican incumbent Jeffrey Caggiano 50.5-49.5 in Bristol.

Republicans, despite a lot of losses, held some important races and flipped a mayoral race in one town.

• Republican incumbent mayor Vincent Cervoni won over Democratic challenger Alida Cella 58-42 in the Wallingford Mayoral Race
• Republican Molly Spino beat Democrat Stephen Ivain 54-46 in the open Torrington Mayoral Race.
• Incumbent Republican First Selectman Fred Camillo comfortably wins over Democratic challenger Anthony Moor 56-44 in Greenwich.
• Republican Dan Lent won over Democrat Nicholas D’Addario in a 50.1-49.9 squeaker for First Selectman in Easton. The lone Democrat to Republican flip of the night.

These are just some of the examples of wins from both Democrats and Republicans.

Many officials and reporters described the 2025 local races as a “blue wave”. Democrats did better than their most optimistic predictions. A big trend was the decline in split-ticket voting, as many Republican incumbents won by 10-20 points in previous races in 2021 and 2023, only to lose in 2025.

A map of Connecticut towns showing wins and losses by party in the 2025 elections based on unofficial results from the Secretary of the State’s office. Credit to Viktoria Sundqvist / CTNewsjunkie

What to Expect in 2026? To Start – A Barrage of Special Elections

No one has to wait too long for elections in Connecticut. Due to a variety of circumstances, there will be 3 special elections taking place in Connecticut from early January to early February.

On Jan. 5th, there will be a special election for the 25th State House Seat. The seat was vacated by Rep. Bobby Sanchez, who resigned after winning the mayorship of New Britain in November.

The 25th State House Seat is likely to stay in the Democrats’ hands. Kamala Harris won this seat 64-34 in 2024. The district contains parts of New Britain.

On Jan. 13th, there will be a special election for the 139th State House Seat. The seat was vacated by Rep. Kevin Ryan due to his death in late November.

The 139th State House Seat could potentially be competitive, but leans towards the Democratic Party. Kamala Harris won this seat 53-47 in 2024. The districts contains parts of Montville, Ledyard, and Norwich.

On Feb. 3rd, there will be a special election for Fairfield First Selectman. Democratic First Selectman Bill Gerber sadly passed away in July. The two remaining Selectmen, Democrat Christine Vitale and Republican Brenda Kupchick, could not pick a successor. The town charter specified that the party that held the seat, the Democrats, could appoint a replacement. Democrats picked Vitale. However, the charter also allowed a special election to take place if enough signatures were gathered. Republican State Sen. Tony Hwang successfully gathered enough signatures to force this special election for the remainder of the term.

The Fairfield First Selectman special election will be competitive, despite Kamala Harris winning the town 59-40 in 2024. Republicans have frequently performed better on the local level, and State Sen. Tony Hwang has won over Democratic voters in his State Senate elections, where he represents a district Kamala Harris won by 18 points. I mark the race as a toss-up.

2026 Primary Elections

It will be an active cycle during the 2026 primaries this year. It will start at the convention, where it will be a competitive race for delegates, and continue into the late summer for the primary.

The main event is the expected competitive Democratic primary in Connecticut’s 1st Congressional District, where incumbent Rep. John Larson faces multiple challengers in former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest, Hartford Board of Ed. Member Ruth Fortune and perennial candidate Mark Greenstein. Though not all the challengers are expected to make the ballot, if anyone makes the ballot, it will mark the first primary against an incumbent member of the U.S. House in Connecticut since the modern system was put in place over 50 years ago.

Larson faces his strongest competition, but if his challengers don’t consolidate, it is likely that Larson can easily win with a plurality. Larson has endorsements from most elected officials in the district as well as the state’s entire federal delegation. The race can get unpredictable, but it’s Larson’s race to lose. The race has already been pretty negative between Larson and his challengers, and I don’t expect that to change anytime soon, with everyone throwing jabs at each other.

No other Incumbent House Democrat faces a significant challenger; time will tell if any emerge. All the attention will be on CT-01 until that changes.

There is also a competitive Republican primary for governor. This race is currently between State Senator Ryan Fazio and former New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart. Both represent a generational shift in the party, as both are more than three decades younger than current Democratic Governor Ned Lamont. There have been reports that former Lt. Gov of New York, Betsy McCaughey, might enter the race as well. This primary can also get messy.

On the Democratic side, State Rep. Josh Elliott hopes to stop Ned Lamont from securing a 3rd term. Elliott, who has struggled to gain traction and fundraise, still has time to prove to voters why Lamont shouldn’t be the nominee. He hopes for a breakthrough moment, and maybe as the race approaches, he finds it somewhere.

There will be expected primaries in the state legislature against both incumbents and in open races. The incumbent most likely to have a primary challenge is State Sen. Doug McCrory of the 2nd district, who has been linked to state spending under investigation by federal investigators. Coverage will increase as we get closer to the primary cycle, as most state legislature members haven’t filed for re-election yet, but it should be a busier primary cycle than usual. I expect a real test of Democrats’ appetite for younger challengers/fighting mentality, as well as a sign of how State Republicans want to proceed to make some gains across the state.

2026 Statewide Elections

All statewide Democratic incumbents are expected to run again next November. This includes Gov. Ned Lamont, Lt. Gov Susan Bysiewicz, Attorney General William Tong, Comptroller Sean Scanlon, Secretary of State Stephanie Thomas, and Treasurer Erick Russell.

If anyone decides not to run, it will open up a competitive Democratic primary, but it is not expected.

Republicans have not won a statewide race since 2006, and will have to field numerous strong candidates if they hope to take any statewide race. They lost every race except for Treasurer in 2022 by double-digits, and still lost Treasurer by nearly 8 points. It will take a lot for Republicans to do well in what is expected to be a blue year. Republicans might again take a similar strategy to 2024, where they put all their resources on CT’s 5th Congressional District Race, but a blue year may make that strategy unsustainable.

Remember to expect the unexpected in politics.

It will be another crazy year of elections. I deeply appreciate everyone who reads the blog. This was the first year of the blog project, and I will call it a success. We hope to continue to grow the blog, and hope to gather more readers, and expand the coverage on Connecticut Elections.

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  Thanks for Reading!

New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart announced her exploratory campaign for governor on Jan 28th, 2025, at New Britain City Hall. Source: Connecticut Public Radio

Table of Contents

Overview

Fundraising reports for Q3 were due in early to mid-October for both statewide candidates and candidates for federal office. Finance reports give credentials to more serious candidates, demonstrating they have funds for increasingly expensive primary campaigns, and for candidates to demonstrate they are the ones to take the mantle for the party.

Q3 Finance Reports allow voters to see how candidates for governor are faring, including what is looking like a competitive Republican primary between New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart and State Senator Ryan Fazio. We will also look at State Rep. Josh Elliott’s campaign for governor.

Additionally, we are looking to see how viable Democratic primary challengers to Rep. John Larson are in CT-01.

Q3 Republican Primary for Governor Fundraising

Erin Stewart – $102,000
Overall Campaign – $350,000+

Ryan Fazio – $157,769

Republican Primary Governor Discussion

When Fazio launched his campaign, I was curious how the Republican coalitions would react around the state. Would they split between Stewart and Fazio, or would they consolidate behind Stewart? Based on fundraising and endorsements, it seems to be the former.

Fazio now has the most money raised by a Republican for a single quarter in the history of the state’s Citizens’ Election Program for public financing. Though a very specific accomplishment that may not mean a lot in the long run, it shows that he is able to raise enough money to compete against Stewart.

He has raised money from more than 1,000 individuals across 114 towns across the state.

The race has turned into a head-to-head, as Westport Selectwoman Jennifer Tooker dropped out of the race last month, after struggling to raise funds. She did not rule out running for another office on the ballot, however.

Stewart’s exploratory campaign has raised over $350,000 since her entry into the race in late January. She is still the frontrunner, as she has far more name recognition than Fazio. Her run for Lieutenant Governor in 2018 and being a mayor for more than a decade mean voters are more familiar with her. She has also been expected to run for governor for years, keeping her name in conversations for a long time.

The question still is, who can win over MAGA voters? Stewart and Fazio have both expressed support for Trump. Stewart told members of the Republican State Central Committee in April that her campaign would get the endorsement.

Fazio, in particular, made it a point not to mention Trump in his campaign last year in his Harris +16 state senate seat. That’s not too surprising, but Fazio has been more willing to talk about Trump while pursuing statewide office. He told guests at a fundraiser for Republican candidate for New Haven Mayor Steve Orosco last month that he voted for Trump, but emphasized a focus on local issues. Fazio’s endorsements from the state legislature, including firebrand Rob Sampson, show that Fazio also has some institutional support from conservative

As we have mentioned before, both Fazio and Stewart are aware of the power of a Trump endorsement, even in a blue state like Connecticut. In addition to how the CT Republican Party has failed to get their preferred candidates over the line in a Republican primary. Trump’s late endorsement of businesswoman Leora Levy in the 2022 US Senate Race gave her the necessary boost to beat out State House Minority Leader Themis Klarides.

Fundraising has shown it will be a competitive race, as we head into next year, we will get a clear look to see at how voters feel between the two candidates.

Q3 Democratic Primary Governor Fundraising

Josh Elliott – $45,834

Is Elliott Viable against Lamont?

State Rep. Josh Elliott has raised just above $45,000 in his campaign for governor. Governor Ned Lamont has not confirmed he would run for a 3rd term, though he is expected to announce his campaign after local elections on November 4th.

Lamont garnered the ire of statewide progressives when he vetoed two bills, one that would provide funds for striking workers, and an affordable housing bills over concerns about how local control would work. Progressives, angry about the bill that was expected to pass, told the media that Lamont would get a challenge from the left.

Elliott, who entered the race in July, has not garnered a lot of attention in his bid, however. Though there is still plenty of time before the late-summer primary, Lamont’s veto did not lead to an overwhelming string of donations protesting him.

A poll from UNH in September demonstrated some of Elliott’s struggles. 71% of voters did not know about him to give an opinion. And the ones that did, his approval was -6, with 5% approval, 11% unfavorable.

Polling has shown that Lamont is still popular, with the same UNH poll showing Lamont with a +18 Job Approval rating.

Elliott also needs to change the narrative, as only 20% of voters said that Lamont’s views were to the right of their own. This included a majority of both socialists (82%) and progressives (53%). On the question if Lamont deserves to be re-elected, it was 43% yes, 40% no. But 62% of Democrats said that Lamont deserves to be re-elected, only 19% said he doesn’t.

It is important to note that this was only one poll, but it reinforces the narrative that Lamont will be difficult to beat.

What Josh Elliott still has in his favor is some support from the state legislature, notably from many other progressives. Looking through his donation list, Elliott has received donations from 1 state senator and 11 state representatives.

The list includes

State Sen. Saud Anwar (D-South Windsor)
State Rep. Mary Fortier (D-Bristol)
State Rep. Nick Gauthier (D-Waterford)
State Rep. Eleni Kavros DeGraw (D-Avon)
State Rep. Sarah Keitt (D-Fairfield)
State Rep. Renee Muir (D-Deep River)
State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest (D-West Hartford)
State Rep. Laurie Sweet (D-Hamden)
State Rep. Robin Comey (D-Branford)
State Rep. Frank Smith (D-Milford)
State Rep. Anne Hughes (D-Easton)
State Rep. Mary Welander (D-Orange)

The 2026 Environment

The 2026 environment for Democrats seems to be leaning more towards anti-establishment/anti-incumbent. There is definitely an energy for a more aggressive posture from some Democrats. But Elliott needs to find a way to garner more attention, either through social media or otherwise. He also needs to find more national or statewide groups to endorse him, as they might be able to help him out with fundraising. It might be a long shot, but even trying to get an endorsement from a progressive member in Congress. Anything to bring some momentum and attention to his campaign.

Elliott will need a lot of money if he faces the wealthy Lamont. Elliott did tell the New Haven Independent in an interview in early September that he has enough delegates to force a primary and that Lamont is not as popular as people believe. He also mentioned he won’t pursue a primary “if he fails to win the convention outright”. He noted he promised his family that he wouldn’t go through a Line B candidacy unless the results are close.

It’s hard to say how much it matters if Elliott does not fully commit to a primary. It is not uncommon for legislators to form exploratory committees and not go to the primary if they don’t think they can win. Elliott faced the same issue when he ran for Secretary of State in 2022. Once he lost at the convention and didn’t have enough delegates to make the primary. Elliott was able to run for his state house seat, as town committee endorsements for his state house seat took place after the convention. A similar thing can happen in 2026.

Elliott also said he didn’t want to risk his legislative position in the State House, so we will see if the race gets closer for Elliott to change his mind.

Q3 Fundraising Democratic Primary in CT’s 1st Congressional District

Luke Bronin – $1,192,798 (In 8 Weeks)
John Larson (Inc.) – $804,557
Jillian Gilchrest – $54,392 (In 4 Weeks)
Ruth Fortune – $41,353
Jack Perry – $28,810 (Did Take Out a $500k Loan) (9 Weeks)

Bronin Emerging as Main Challenger

Bronin’s fundraising brought him ahead of incumbent John Larson. Both have been trading barbs with each other.

Bronin has attacked Larson for taking PAC money and encouraged him not to do so. Larson has attacked Bronin for not actually representing a change at all. Larson and his team continue to say that Larson is the best person to represent the district.

He hasn’t exactly been enthusiastic about the prospect of fundraising. Something he hasn’t been forced to do for decades. He has complained that the money spent in Connecticut should be spent in swing districts across the country, not wasted here.

Bronin, however, raised $500,000 on the first day of his campaign and over a million for the quarter, putting him on par with many competitive campaigns across the country. With his fundraising, Bronin has established himself as Larson’s primary challenger.

Larson received $495,057 from individuals. He raised the additional $309,500 from PAC money. Bronin has raised all of his money from individuals. He has not spent much of his money yet.

Larson’s fundraising is expected to increase in Q4, and Bronin said he will likely be behind. He did say early fundraising shows “we’re going to have what we need to compete and make a powerful case for change,”.

Jillian Gilchrest’s Op-Ed

State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest said in a statement, “This fundraising pissing contest doesn’t surprise me, but bragging about how much money you can drag into politics is completely out of touch.” She also marked how the money should be used for other causes. She spent her first month in the race talking to voters.

Her comments did make sense, considering her paltry $54,000 fundraising. The amount is not nearly enough for a competitive Democratic primary in the Hartford Media market.

Though Gilchrest makes good points about the issues of how expensive it is to run for office. She also brought up the importance and need of public financing in Congressional Campaigns. Both her major opponents, Larson and Bronin, said they agree that the system needs to be reformed.

In her Op-Ed, Gilchrest notes that she would not have been able to run for office, especially against a 23-year incumbent, without Connecticut’s public financing system, the Citizens’ Election Program. She explains how the wealthy control our government, and the continuation of corruption, and how billionaires avoid paying taxes, making the rest of us pay more. Gilchrest also said she understood the importance of fundraising as a means to compete, but she won’t run playing by “old rules that got us in this mess in the first place”. She will raise money in a way that fits the character of the campaign.

Gilchrest has noted that instead of fundraising, she has spent her time going around the district and talking with residents. She did not ask people for money during her conversations, marking to change how politics works, “we need to elect people who think about politics differently”.

This contrasts with Bronin’s approach so far. Bronin isn’t a progressive insurgent in the mold of Gilchrest or Elliott, but he’s playing the traditional political game effectively — raising large sums quickly, cultivating credibility with national donors, and leveraging institutional networks. He’s not rejecting the system, just adapting it to appear reform-minded, notably by rejecting PAC money, unlike Larson. Ideologically, he’s not as left-leaning as Gilchrest, but sits somewhere between the state’s moderate establishment and its progressive base.

The Reality of Fundraising

Gilchrest is notable in her cause; she makes great points about the difficulties faced by first-time candidates. This is also why Gilchrest is still a dangerous candidate; she has the makings of what the Democratic Primary electorate is looking for in 2026, a progressive anti-establishment candidate. This is a mantle that she can take from Bronin, but the primary will come up quickly. They are also likely to split the vote at this rate from Larson.

However, she can’t ignore the realities of congressional fundraising. When Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez pulled off a shocking upset in 2018 against No. 4 House Democrat Joe Crowley, she raised around $300,000, less than 1/10 of Crowley’s chest.

AOC set up a shockwave of progressive challengers to come, a model that many hope to replicate. Though none have come near the scale of AOC’s upset, you need a few things to happen. Joe Crowley openly admits that he was not tuned into his district in 2018 and did not actively campaign during his primary campaign.

John Larson, on the other hand, has been barnstorming the district. Larson told the Courant that the challenges have made him more energetic, and have led Larson to frenzied campaigning, unlike he has done in years.

The point is, Gilchrest cannot ignore the realities of fundraising. Donors and national fundraisers need to hear about the candidate and their ideas. Also, understand that the candidate’s campaign is to be taken seriously. Gilchrest has the endorsement of Indivisible CT, a notable progressive group.

But despite her complaints about money, Democrats have notably outraised Republicans across the country in many races. Democrats know that backing down from spending would only fail to get their message out. For Gilchrest, I would argue that Progressive organizations, especially national ones, are stockpiled with money ready to spend on upstart progressive candidates, who would love a candidate like Gilchrest. They also have far more resources and can help nationalize the race.

AOC, who struggled fundraising in 2018, has raised nearly $10 million in Q1 of this year (nearly $21 million for the year) as a well-known figure going against President Trump. The opportunity is there.

Similar to what I explained about State Rep. Josh Elliott (who Gilchrest gave a donation too), she needs to tap into national groups and endorsements to garner some attention and momentum. Though it is good that she is communicating with people, garnering attention is important, and that will lead to funds without having to force the conversation.

Scenairos

Both Jack Perry and Ruth Fortune raised similar numbers. It is not too surprising that Gilchrest, Perry, and Fortune are struggling. They are not as well-known and represent local town offices. Though Gilchrest is a state representative, the issue is that Connecticut has some of the smallest state house districts in the country by population. Only 23,000 residents live in each district. Scaling up an effort to a 700,000+ person Congressional house district is not easy; it becomes an issue of name ID, especially as she is not that well-known outside of her hometown of West Hartford.

Fortune’s $40,000 is not bad, and honestly, more than I expected from Fortune, who only came into office as an appointed candidate last year. Perry has taken out a $500,000 loan, but how he will use his money will be the deciding factor for him. I have doubts that Fortune and Perry can make the ballot, but we will see what happens on that front.

There is still plenty of time for this race to change. All candidates will have to face a very energetic Larson and prove to voters that age concerns are enough to take out an incumbent. Gilchrest needs to garner attention and try to get more progressive groups to seize on the opportunity to back her, instead of Bronin, as Larson’s main challenger, and Larson himself, who is fairly progressive himself. The federal delegation is backing Larson, so they need to look to the state legislature, local offices, or start going to House or Senate members.

Bronin needs to continue fundraising, attacking Larson, but also come up with some policy points, as his name seems to be mentioned more in the national political media as a Democrat primarying an incumbent (Downballot and Former White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki’s Podcast, as some examples). He has to capitalize to ensure that he remains Larson’s main challenger. For Perry and Fortune, they need to garner more attention and differentiate themselves from other challengers.

It’s Larson’s race to lose! He’s the frontrunner.

It could be a two-way race, a three-way race, or even a larger field. But it seems highly unlikely that Larson won’t have at least one challenger on the ballot. We are still more than 6 months away from the convention and 9 months away from a primary, so a lot can change.

Thanks for Reading!

Adam Sendroff addresses the crowd after winning the Democratic primary for mayor on Tuesday, September 9, 2025, at the Knights of Columbus in Hamden. Credit to Jim Michaud/Hearst Connecticut Media

Overview

21 Towns and Cities held local municipal primaries last night. Let’s go through some of the notable results and how candidates fared during an off-year September primary.

We did live-tweet the results throughout the night. To get updates, either local election news or announcements of the publication of written articles, you can find us on Twitter, which is linked here.

For additional information on any races, before I go into results, please use our Ultimate September 9th Primary Guide as a reference.

In the top races of the night…

Adam Sendroff and Barbara Smyth both won Democratic mayoral primaries in Hamden and Norwalk, respectively.

Republican Incumbent First Selectman George Temple and Kevin Cunningham survive tough primaries in Oxford and Plainfield

Just a note, in some race summaries, my screenshots will come from the Secretary of State’s Website Election Database. The results are unofficial and are not certified. However, many candidates have leads that won’t be changed with recounts.

Turnout

Turnout was low as expected. On the Republican side, the turnout was 23.36% (note – turnout for the Griswold Republican primary is not noted on the website). On the Democratic side, turnout was only 19.35%.

However, turnout varied among different towns. On the Republican side, turnout varied from 47.28% in Oxford to 12.98% in Greenwich. On the Democratic side, turnout was as high as 45.33% in Chester, to as low as 11.95% in Stamford.

Note – All turnout numbers were found on the Secretary of State’s Website.

Differences in turnout were usually due to the type of race. Races for First Selectman or Mayor were much higher than in towns that had races only for boards or councils.

Hamden

Former Board of Education member Adam Sendroff won a convincing victory last night over party-endorsed Dominique Baez and three others.

Sendroff won 46.57% of the vote, securing more than one thousand votes more than party-endorsed Legislative Council President Dominique Baez.

All the candidates demonstrated levels of support. It was a large field that included multiple elected officials in Hamden.

Some candidates had controversies that were difficult to overcome. City Council President Dominique Baez was perceived as the frontrunner for many weeks. However, the New Haven Register reported that Baez’s workforce development company was evicted due to 40k in unpaid rent in 2021.

This was unwelcome news in a town where voters were looking for someone to lead them on fiscal responsibility.

I underestimated Sendroff’s level of support by a fair amount. My race rating was a Toss-Up after Baez’s issues because I wasn’t sure what to expect. I did not expect an overwhelming win for Sendroff.

Sendroff impressively not only won against another elected official in Democratic Registrar of Voters Lushonda Howard, but two former mayoral candidates in Walter Morton IV and Peter Cyr.

What to Expect in November

Normally, in a town that Kamala Harris won 73-25, we’ll call it a day, and tell Adam Sendroff, congrats, you’re the mayor in November.

However, Republicans see an opening due to the financial crisis plaguing the city.

In addition, we highlighted in a previous article that Incumbent Mayor Lauren Garrett only won in 2023 by 12 points, and only 10 points in 2021. So we expect a much closer race than the federal toplines suggest.

Adam Sendroff’s convincing victory, though, should give Democrats some much-needed confidence. Sendroff will face 24-year-old Jonathan Katz, a political newcomer, in November.

Hamden Councilmen Districts

In our primary guide, I said that out of all the challengers to the endorsed candidate in Hamden. I thought that Grace Teodosio had the best chance of an upset over an endorsed candidate, since Renee Hoff was an appointed incumbent who hadn’t run in a primary prior, and Teodosio had an in-depth campaign website.

Teodosio proved my suspicions correct and won over party-endorsed and incumbent Renee Hoff 54-46.

As expected, incumbents in Districts 7 and 8, Adrian Webber and Ted Stevens, comfortably won over their challengers.

District 9, however, will absolutely go to a recount. I thought the race could be unpredictable as the 2023 Democratic Nominee, Barbara Walker, was against party-endorsed Tameeka Parks.
I also thought the race would narrowly favor Tameeka Parks, though I did not expect this close of a margin. As of right now, Tameeka Parks has 220 votes. Walker has 218. A recount could shift that narrow of a margin, but Parks is likely to move on in November; but we will have to wait to see.

In November, Democrats are favored in Councilmen Districts 6,7, and 8. In District 9, the Democratic winner will have to face Republican Jim Anthony in November. Anthony won 55-45 in 2023.

Norwalk

Politicos expected a close race in Norwalk last night, and a close result it was. Common Council President Barbara Smyth took a 77 vote victory over Common Council Member Darlene Young.

I expected the race to be close due to a couple of factors: Smyth narrowly won the party endorsement from local Democrats, and Young had more than enough signatures to make the ballot.

Local Democrats also remarked that both women have the strength, dedication, and leadership needed to be mayor

What to Expect in November

Norwalk is another town where Democrats have done well on the federal level. Kamala Harris won a comfortable 64-35 victory here last year.

However, similarly to Hamden, Republicans have done better in local races than federal races. Incumbent Mayor Harry Rilling won 55% of the vote against Vinny Scicchitano in 2023. Though he won a larger 64-36 victory two years prior in 2021.

Democrats are likely to win in November, but Republicans can put up a fight. Smyth will face the 2023 Republican nominee Scicchitano in November, who does have name recognition from his previous run.

Chester

Incumbent First Selectman Cynthia Lignar comfortably beat challenger Joe Cohen in an 81-19 landslide.

Lignar got 438 votes to Cohen’s 106 votes.

There will be no Republican candidate on the ballot in November, as 2023 Republican nominee Ron Amara says “the Democrats would have glided to victory“. Amara did back Cohen, but Lignar won comfortably and will be unopposed in November.

Stratford

Party-endorsed David Chess won a landslide victory over challenger Linda Manos. Chess won an 87-13 victory. The largest margin of victory of the night.

Chess, a doctor and businessman, won the support of the Democratic Town Committee by a large margin, though I expected a closer race. Manos told the CTPost that she submitted over 1000 signatures in her primary petition, though she barely got 1/4 of that in the primary. Though I think some of those signatures were not registered Democrats, and the number was closer to the 650 needed signatures.

What to Expect in November

Chess faces a very difficult race in November. He will go up against two-term Republican incumbent Laura Hoydick. Stratford is a very Democratic town with Kamala Harris winning 59-40 last year.

However, Laura Hoydick won a landslide 63-37 victory in 2021, so Chess will need to get partisan Democrats to vote for him over Hoydick and prevent voters from crossing over. He definitely has a chance, as 2025 is expected to be a much bluer year for Democrats than 2021. However, one should not doubt Connecticut’s split-ticket voting tendencies.

Bloomfield

As readers know, Bloomfield has had a turbulent couple of years with a lot of infighting amongst local Democrats.

On the Town Council, it looks like the majority of the Row A endorsed party candidates emerged victorious. However, one challenger has made it into the top six.

I expected the Row A candidates to win with a larger margin, but it was a nailbiter of a result. Recent developments and scandals on the new town library and numerous budget amendments meant a lot of turmoil for former Bloomfield Mayor Danielle Wong’s administration and her fellow councilors. This gave an opening for the challengers.

Wong, who resigned last month, was replaced by Mayor Tony Harrington, who led all candidates with 1340 votes. The top six candidates of the twelve on the ballot that will go on to November are (endorsed candidates marked with a *)

Tony Harrington* – 1340
Cindi Lloyd* – 1214
Michael Oliver* – 1188
Darrell Goodwin* – 1172
Suzette DeBeatham-Brown – 1155
Todd Cooper* – 1142

Former Mayor Suzette DeBeatham-Brown looks like she will make a return to the town council after a brutal loss in 2023. Endorsed candidate Ola Aina has fallen short. Another former mayor, Sydney Schulman, was only 19 votes behind Todd Cooper. Other endorsed candidates were within two hundred voters of Todd Cooper, but they fell short.

Bloomfield is one of the most liberal towns in the state, voting for Kamala Harris by an 84-15 margin. This means the six Democrats are virtually assured of their victory in November.

Oxford

A race filled with drama between First Selectman incumbent George Temple and his longtime protege Jeffrey Luff ended in a victory for the seven-term incumbent Temple, who won a comfortable 57-43 victory.

Both incumbents, First Selectman George Temple and Selectman Arnold Jensen, won against their Republican challengers. Temple was surprised that Luff was challenging him, as Luff was a protege he expected to take over once he retired. Luff was not happy that Temple, age 79, was running for an eighth term, saying he “had lost his fastball“.

Temple and Jensen both narrowly lost the party-endorsement vote, but the vote was so close (Temple lost 151-157, Jensen lost 153-155) that the race was expected to be competitive.

Donald Trump comfortably won Oxford by a 60-39 margin, meaning Temple and Jensen are heavily favored to retain their positions in November.

Plainfield

The 20-year political feud between Incumbent First Selectman Kevin Cunningham and former First Selectman Paul Sweet ended in a narrow victory for Cunningham, who emerged victorious by fifteen votes.

Cunningham and Sweet have had a feud going on for so long that both were former Democratic First Selectmen many years ago before finding themselves as Republicans facing off in a September primary. Cunningham had lost to Sweet twice, both in 2007 and 2009, in the general election, but he finally won a race against Sweet in 2025.

However, Incumbent Arthur Gagne has narrowly lost to the party-endorsed Michael Suprenant by 28 votes. It might be a bit awkward in Plainfield as one incumbent and one challenger will be in office together.

Plainfield is another town where Trump did well, winning 61-38 in 2024. So Cunningham and Suprenant are heavily favored in November.

Wolcott

Party-endorsed James Paolino did not think that Paul D’Angelo should represent Republicans on the ballot this year. His goal was to block D’Angelo from winning the nomination. D’Angelo was arrested last year for a domestic dispute and was being sued by Wells Fargo.

Republican voters, however, disagreed with Paolino as D’Angelo narrowly bested him by 21 votes in a 52-48 victory.

Paolino said he would not seriously challenge the incumbent mayor. D’Angelo wanted to offer voters a serious conversation on the town and give a serious challenge to Incumbent Mayor Thomas Dunn, who has been unopposed in the last four elections.

Dunn has never had a difficult contest and is highly favored in November. We’ll see if local Republicans support D’Angelo after this acriminous primary.

Rest of the Races

There were many other races across the state. Results for every primary in the state can be found here.

Some other interesting results were Incumbent Town Clerk Bob Siegrist losing to party-endorsed Sarah Pytlik 45-55.

In New Britain, Incumbent Alderperson Neil Connors lost to party-endorsed incumbent John McNamara and former Alderperson Luz Ortiz-Luna.

In Stamford, all party-endorsed candidates won their primaries for the Board of Representatives, all by pretty large margins. This meant multiple incumbents who did not receive the party endorsement have been ousted from office. This includes Bonnie Kim Campbell (District 5), Denis Paterson (District 6), and Anabel Figeroa (District 8)

In New Haven, Elias Theodore won comfortably over Norah Laughter for the Board of Alder Ward 1. A ward seat that encompasses a good portion of Yale University. Theodore won comfortably 63-36. Party-endorsed incumbent Angel Hubbard won 58-42 in Ward 3 against Miguel Pittman, who she will have to face again in November. Party-endorsed Leland Moore won a landslide 84-16 vote against Zelema Harris in Ward 18.

It was an interesting night all around, with some upsets and party-endorsed candidates coming out victorious.

There will likely be a recount in Hamden in Councilman District 9, so we will see what happens in that race and if there are any other developments overall. Other than that, it’s off to the general election, where we will have a lot of competitive races.

Thanks for Reading!

A Hartford resident votes at a polling spot in the Pope Park Recreational Center in the 2023 municipal primary. Credit: Shahrzad Rasekh / CT Mirror

Table of Contents

Overview

*Updated 8/29 – 18 of 21 Primaries Completed

Welcome to CT Election Guide’s September 9 Ultimate Primary Election Guide.

On September 9th, some towns in Connecticut will have Democratic and Republican primaries for local municipal offices ranging from mayor to board offices.

Some races I have covered in separate articles. This is a guide of who is running and what I expect from each race.

Overall, 11 towns will have a Democratic primary. 10 towns will have a Republican primary.

No town has both a Democratic and a Republican primary.

Per state rules, Connecticut is a closed primary state. This means only registered voters of that party can vote in a primary election. In Connecticut, a plurality of voters are registered unaffiliated (about 42% as of 2024); that proportion of state voters will be unable to vote in the election. However, unaffiliated voters have until August 29th at noon to register with a party. If a voter wants to switch parties to vote in a primary (From Democratic to Republican, or vice versa), they had to do so by June 9th.

Voting Information

New voters must complete their party registration by noon on the business day prior to when they partake in early voting or election day.

There is early voting available for primary voters. Early voting will take place from September 2nd to September 7th. The hours for early voting are listed below.

Regular Weekday: Hours 10:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. September 3 & 5, 2025
Extended Weekday: Hours 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. September 2 & 4, 2025
Weekend Hours: 10:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. September 6 & 7, 2025

On September 9th, primary day, polls will open at 6:00 am and will close at 8:00 pm. Any registered voters who are in line by 8:00 pm will be allowed to cast their vote.

Voter turnout is expected to be low for an off-year September primary, so voters are encouraged to come out and vote for a candidate, as even a few votes can change the result in some races. In 2023, out of eligible voters, just 21% turned out to vote.

Let’s start going through primaries and seeing what voters will have to vote on in each race. I will give who is running in each race, some relevant information/context if needed, discuss the candidates, and I will attempt to make a race rating (expected predictions). Some races, I have covered previously in the guide, and will refer readers to those pieces if needed.

All ballot images are from the Primary Election Town Sample Ballots found on the CT Secretary of State website here.

Race Rating Scale

Here is the scale I will use for Race ratings. They are my own personal primary predictions. Colors change based on if it’s a Democratic Primary or a Republican Primary.

Likely/Likely – Race is heavily favored towards one candidate by a large margin. I expect the candidate to win by over 10-15 points.

Lean/Lean – One candidate is favored; however, the race could be close depending on multiple factors. A race with a margin under 10 points is likely. An upset is possible.

Toss-Up – Race is unpredictable or is a potentially close race between multiple candidates. No candidate is favored; anyone can win

Disclaimer: Race ratings are just like predictions. I am by no means a political operative, and I am not on the ground in any race or affiliated with any of the candidates. Some candidates may have much more momentum than I’m aware of. It is also very unlikely that I get all these races correct in my race ratings. Primaries by nature are generally difficult to predict, and the electorates in many of these races will be quite small and will be based more on how candidates get their voters to turn up for a September primary. I’m just someone who enjoys elections and wants to make some educated guesses on what I expect for the 9th. If I’m wrong, that’s okay, and you can hold me to that.

Bloomfield Democratic Primary

I’ve covered a lot of the drama going on in Bloomfield in a previous article I wrote last month. If you want more context on this election, the article is right here.

I expected last month that the Party’s endorsed candidate would have an entire slate against them for Town Council. What I did not expect was that they’ve come up with candidates for every office on the ballot. This includes the Board of Education, Town Plan & Zoning Commission, and the Library Trustees.

The opposing town council slate includes not only Former Mayor Suzette DeBeatham Brown, but another Former Mayor Sydney Schulman. I’m not surprised by Schulman’s entry into the battle due to the very public comments made about the budget referendum. Former Councilman Rickford Kirton is also on the opposing slate. Kirton was instrumental in bringing the referendum to voters by gathering signatures.

Row B cannot be underestimated by any means, as it includes not only former mayors but former council members, and an entire new agenda for the town. It is no secret that former Mayors Schulman and Brown were not fans of Mayor Danielle Wong’s tenure, as seen by their very public infighting. Another year, another battle of the factions.

In 2023, Former Mayor DeBeatham-Brown led an opposing slate on Row B against the party-endorsed candidates.

However, they lost by a 2 to 1 margin. It’s hard to imagine that this attempt would be any different despite all the infighting over the past year. I do think the margin would be a bit closer due to the library and budget disputes, but I still expect the Row A endorsed candidates to win all offices on the ballot. It should be noted that in 2021, a mix of both endorsed and challenger candidates won the Democratic primary. However, I’m leaning more towards a 2023 result.

2023 made it clear, it’s a slate of candidates, not individuals. There isn’t much difference in the vote totals between members of each row, so I believe 2025 will be similar.

Race Rating: Likely Row A (All Offices)

Bridgeport Democratic Primary

District 137

Updated 9/4 – Challengers thrown off ballot by judge due to suspected fraudulent signatures, no race in District 137

Bridgeport has 10 council districts. There are Democratic primaries in two of them. There is no Democratic primary for the school board this year.

Council president Aidee Nieves and Incumbent Maria Valle were both endorsed by the local party committee. They face a challenge from both Ishamel Sanchez and Isaac Dickerson.

Nieves and Valle are described by the publication Only in Bridgeport as being popular with residents for years, so they are likely safe. There was controversy as the two incumbents have asserted that their challengers violated the election law to qualify for the primary.

Their complaint with the State Elections Enforcement Commission states that they believe Sanchez and Dickerson violated state law by submitting fraudulent and forged signature petitions. They also noted that former Democratic Town Committee members Tony Barr and Maria Hernandez were campaign operatives who circulated most of the petition sheets, not the candidates themselves. Hernandez was recently arrested on state charges for alleged absentee ballot fraud from the 2023 Bridgeport Mayoral Race.

Sanchez and Dickerson can only be off the ballot by court action, so they will likely be on the ballot for voters.

Race Rating: Likely Nieves and Valle

District 138

District 138 is a whole other story. Incumbent Maria Perera has not received the endorsement of the town committee. Along with Keyla Media, they will challenge the endorsed slate of City Councilwoman Samia Suliman and District Leader Kevin Monks.

Pereria has had a tumultuous tenure, with a long history of political “divorces”. She ran with Jazmarie Melendez in 2023. They both won the race, but after a few months, they had a falling out. Melendez later resigned from her position.

Pereria has also attracted state officials with her election win in 2023. She lost the in-person vote, but won the absentee ballot, leading to suspicion from state officials. This is not uncommon in Bridgeport, where multiple candidates on the ballot, including Incumbent Mayor Joe Ganim, faced questions about how absentee ballots played a role in their election wins and the legitimacy of those elections.

There were also questions about how Pereria’s part of the district had residents who, according to the state, were pressured to change their absentee votes. Currently, Pereria, who has self-proclaimed herself the piranha of city politics, seems stuck in her own ways. Her district has a suspicious number of absentee ballots requested, around 350. Due to this, and Pereria’s ways of conduct, she and Medina are favored in a city that continually elects Joe Ganim.

Race Rating: Lean Pereria and Medina

Chester Democratic Primary

Cynthia Lignar, the First Selectwoman of Chester, faces a Democratic primary challenge from Consultant Joe Cohen

In Chester, there will be no Republican on the ballot this year for First Selectman, so the Democratic primary is tantamount to victory.

Interestingly, Ron Amara, a Republican who unsuccessfully ran against Lignar in 2023, has given his support to Cohen, saying his experience, knowledge, and trust are why residents should back him. Amara points to Lignar and her selectman partner, Democrat Patricia Bandzes, for increasing taxes.

Lignar has her supporters, including from resident Caryl Horner, who writes in her op-ed, that Lignar’s great communication with the town, her accomplishments in getting numerous grants for town projects, infrastructure improvements, and her leadership are reasons to support her.

Cohen found himself in opposition against Lignar and Bandzes last year in a discussion about the town charter that led to a shouting match. Cohen was also a write-in candidate in the general election for First Selectman in 2021, receiving 14% of the vote. He also won the position of Town Treasurer as a write-in candidate that year.

Due to Lignar’s incumbency advantage, I believe she will likely defeat Cohen on September 9th.

Race Rating: Likely Lignar

Greenwich Republican Primary

In Greenwich, there is a Republican primary for positions on the Board of Estimate and Taxation (BET).

The board consists of six Democrats and six Republicans. Whichever party gets the most votes in the November election will get to pick a chair and receive a tiebreaker vote. Republicans have controlled the board since 2019.

In Greenwich, the body manages over $600 million of taxpayer money and ensures proper financial management throughout the town.

Similar to Bloomfield, there are two different slates of candidates running, as voters will need to pick six of the twelve candidates on the ballot to advance to the November election. Row A has the party-endorsed candidates, Row B has the challengers.

However, unlike Bloomfield, not all candidates on each of the slates are aligned with one another.

An Op-Ed to the CT Examiner has six candidates aligned with one another. This includes three endorsed candidates, Incumbents David Alfano, Nisha Arora, and Lucia Jansen. They are joined by challengers Alessandra Brus, Phil Dodson, and John Hopley.

In this op-ed, the group explains how they are Independent Thinkers, and they are up against Entrenched Insiders. They blame BET Chair Harry Fisher, who was focused on loyalty and members with long-term tenures. In addition, they accuse Fisher of fostering a hostile work environment. They also explain how entrenched insiders have abandoned integrity and Republican values by also appointing Democrats to key committees. They also cite how the group sides with Democrats on raising taxes.

Another set of challengers, Leslie Tarkington, Joe Kelly, and Joshua Brown, filed together as a slate in their challenge. Tarkington is one of the two incumbents (Along with Karen Faussliotis) who did not receive the party endorsement.

With so many candidates and factions of candidates that are both endorsed and challengers. I expect this primary to be very unpredictable. I expect a mix of both incumbents and challengers to find seats on the board. Some will be endorsed candidates, some will not be. I doubt that the six candidates running together will all get the nomination, but we will see what happens. Due to this, I will label this primary as a toss-up.

Race Rating: Toss-Up

Griswold Republican Primary

In Griswold, there is a Republican Primary, not for the position of First Selectman, but for the position of Selectman. Usually, the partner, and a member of the Board of Selectmen, if there are among the top vote getters in the election.

In Griswold, Incumbent Selectman Martin McKinney did not receive the town endorsement to retain his position. He successfully petitioned to make the ballot against party-endorsed Richard Canova. Whoever wins will run with the Republican nominee for First Selectman.

Griswold is a toss-up town for the position of First Selectman. Democrat Tina Falck had a narrow 48-45 win over Republican Wayne Malin. However, since for the position of Selectman, both McKinney and Democrat Richard Grabowki had more votes than Malin, they won both seats as Selectman over Malin.

McKinney is the incumbent, but falling out of favor with the town committee isn’t a great sign. However, since he won the most votes of any First Selectman or Selectman candidate in 2023, I would not fully count him out. Though he is in a similar position to how former Selectwoman Dana Bennett lost the Republican endorsement in 2023, and lost 42-58 in the Republican primary to Malin.

The endorsement does seem to be important in Griswold, but with less than 350 votes in the Republican primary in 2023, it’s unpredictable. However, I would lean towards Canova due to his endorsement.

Race Rating: Lean Canova

Haddam Republican Primary

In Haddam, there is a Republican Primary for the position of Town Clerk. Similar to Griswold, the Incumbent is Bob Siegrist, who did not receive the town’s endorsement. Siegrist had a close 52-47 victory for his 4-year term in 2021.

Siegrist gathered enough signatures to face party-endorsed Sarah Pytlik. Pytlik was selected over Siegrist first at the Republican Town Committee’s Nomination Committee, and then by a Haddam Republican Caucus a few days later. Haddam’s Facebook group has an Admin who noted her dislike of Siegrst, saying he has to go for multiple reasons, which she posted as info. She mentions topics such as stalking, harassment, and DUI, but I could not find any information to substantiate her claims.

Robert Siegrst is well-known to voters of the area, as prior to his win as Town Clerk in 2021, he ran for State Representative in the 36th District. He lost in 2014, but won a tight 51-49 win in 2016. However, he lost re-election in 2018 and again in 2020.

I’m not exactly sure what is happening in this race. Siegrist doesn’t have the endorsement, but he has name ID. Without finding any substantiated information on the claims against Siegrist, I said the race still leans his way slightly.

Race Rating: Lean Siegrist

Hamden Democratic Primary

Mayoral Race

The Hamden Mayoral Race is another primary I have discussed recently. For more information on the race, I’ve listed the article I wrote here.

It is also the most crowded primary of the day, and the primary I will be paying the most attention to. A competitive five-way primary is always fun to see what happens.

Of the candidates I discussed in my previous article, Jameka Jefferies was the only one not to make the ballot, as many of her signatures were rejected. She alleges that the Democratic Registrar of Voters and mayoral candidate Lushonda Howard improperly handled her petition forms. Jefferies will be on the ballot in November as a petitioning candidate.

Due to the open race and the number of candidates running in this deep blue town. I expect turnout for the Democratic primary to be fairly high for a primary. Hamden had a high turnout during early voting last year and has historically had a high turnout overall. With so many primaries on the ballot, it should be one of the highest turnout areas in the state.

The five candidates on the ballot, Dominique Baez, Peter Cyr, Lushonda Howard, Walter Morton IV, and Adam Sendroff, are all viable candidates due to having raised a fair amount of money and making the ballot. All of their campaign platform are extensive, and they have all shown they have support in the race.

Legislative Council President Dominique Baez, I think, is slightly favored in the race due to her position in the town and receiving the party endorsement. This will allow her to get a fair amount of the vote and stand out in a crowded vote. At the moment, though, I think she will win a plurality of the vote, as I expect all five candidates to get at least 5-10% of the vote.

Walter Morton IV, I think, also has a good chance due to his name ID from his previous run two years ago, where he got 44% of the vote, which might help him into second place, primed for an upset win. I’ll be curious how Sendroff, Howard, and Cyr do, though. Cyr got 16% of the vote in a 2021 Democratic primary so he has experience running. Howard is a city official, so many of the candidates are well-known. An upset is definitely possible, but I’m leaning towards Baez at the moment, with Morton in second.

Race Rating: Lean Baez

Councilmen At Large

For the councilmen at Large positions. Delroy Crawford and Marion Regina Mullings are challenging party-endorsed candidates Maurine Crouch, Douglas Foley, Tasha Hunt, and Katie Kiely.

Hamden has had a strong recent history of Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) members winning seats in various town positions.

The endorsed candidates are likely to win these primaries. Kiely and Hunt both were part of the 2023 Democratic primaries, where, as the endorsed candidates, they won comfortably by nearly 800 votes over their challengers (over a 20-point margin between the endorsed and challenger candidates)

Race Rating: Likely Row A: Crouch, Foley, Hunt, and Kiely

Councilman Districts 6-9

District 6

Endorsed Candidate: Renee Hoff

Challenger: Grace Teodosio

District 7

Endorsed Candidate: Adrian Webber

Challenger: Kathleen Muolo

District 8

Endorsed Candidate: Ted Stevens

Challenger: James Baker

District 9

Endorsed Candidate: Tameeka Parks

Challenger: Barbara Walker

Endorsed candidates are also likely to win in the councilman districts. In 2023, all endorsed candidates won their primaries by at least ten points.

In District 7, Adrian Webber won by over 30 points against his challenger, so he is likely safe. District 8 is a rematch between Ted Stevens and James Baker. Stevens won 57-42.

However, since most of these primaries had around 500 voters, slight changes in turnout can change the races dramatically.

barThe strongest challenge will likely be from Grace Teodosio in the 6th district, whose detailed platform and presence online can help her in a low-turnout primary. She also faces Renee Hoff, who was appointed to the legislative council in April and, therefore, has not run in a Democratic primary.

The District 9 race can also be unpredictable, as Walker was the nominee for District 9 in 2023. However, she lost to her Republican opponent, James Anthony, 45-55. The only Democrat on the ballot to lose the election. Due to this loss, Parker is favored. But Walker still holds her name ID from her previous run.

Race Rating

District 6: Lean Hoff

District 7: Likely Webber

District 8: Likely Stevens

District 9: Lean Parks

New Britain Democratic Primary

Ward 4

In New Britain, the mayoral race will likely take a lot more attention in November. However, for the Democratic primary for Ward 4 Alderperson, Incumbent councilman Neil Connors is challenging the endorsed slate of John McNamara and Luz Ortiz-Luna.

Connors received some attention last month when his wife, Allison Cappuccio, was assaulted after being punched in the head by a woman. This was caught on security footage shortly after the meeting leaders announced that Connors would not be receiving the party’s nomination. The woman was later to be revealed as the daughter of Luz Ortiz Luna, who was a minor, however.

The incident was a reaction to the nomination of Luz Oritz-Luna, who was a Republican turned Democrat. Cappuccio told the CT Examiner that Committee Democrats urged Connors, who is an attorney, to be quiet after being passed for nomination. In return, they promised him legal work.

Later, Ortiz Luna said she was unapologetic about the assault. This was because she accused Alderman Connors’ wife of harassing her and her kids during the entire meeting. She said the harassment was due to Connors not getting the endorsement.

The Republican Committee then blasted Democratic State Leaders Senator Richard Blumenthal and Lieutenant Governor Susan Bysiewicz for participating in the New Britain Democratic Campaign Kickoff following the incident on Cappuccio. They said that they should not be involved with the campaign at all since Cappuccio has a chronic illness, and their decision to campaign with anyone associated with the incident is hypocritical, since they did not talk about it at the event. Not like this criticism makes sense, but this shows how high the tension is amongst both parties in New Britain.

Race Rating

Voters might believe either side of the story. In addition, since the incident didn’t involve either candidate directly, it’s harder to assess the impact of the situation and how much voters will care about it.

I’m not exactly sure how this primary will go. It’s not guaranteed that Democratic primary voters (who tend to be the most partisan) will vote for a Republican turned Democrat, especially one who was recently a Republican. However, it should be noted that Ortiz-Luna was a Republican At-Large member who broke with Erin Stewart’s administration on some issues and was eventually excluded from Stewart’s slate 2 years ago. This impressed many Democrats, as she stood up. Connors, on the other hand, was considered by many local legislators to be unreliable on key Democratic values.

I think McNamara wins handily. He was made a leader of the new majority Democratic caucus on the council as a first-year member. I think voters will be more split between Ortiz-Luna and Connors, but I think Ortiz-Luna will hold on against him narrowly at the end of the day.

Race Rating: Likely McNamara/Lean Ortiz-Luna

New Haven Democratic Primary

Unlike in 2023, there is no Democratic primary for Mayor this time around. Mayor Justin Elicker was unopposed for the nomination. There are a few races for Alderperson of different wards, however.

Ward 1

Ward 1 has an interesting situation going on. None of the candidates received the party endorsement. So no candidate appears on Row A on the Ward 1 ballot. There was no incumbent in this district, as one-term incumbent Democratic Kiana Flores was not seeking reelection.

Since the local Democratic party decided not to endorse anyone, all candidates had to collect at least 43 signatures. The committee did include Norah Laughter and Flores. The Democratic Committee hadn’t met for many years, but was revived last year. Laughter and Flores felt it was fair for everyone to get signatures, as so many people were running. They felt the voters should decide, not the committee, which included themselves.

The district notably covers part of downtown and some of Yale University’s campus. So the election is made up of mainly Yale Students. Ward 1 fully encompasses eight of Yale’s fourteen residential colleges.

There are three candidates for the position. Laughter, Elias Theodore, and Rhea McTieman Huge, all students of the university.

With such a small voting bloc, it’s likely a toss-up, as the three candidates also have to contend with some of the voting deadlines that coincide with freshman students moving into dorms. Laughter has the most experience on the committee, but Theodore has raised a surprising $2650 from supporters.

Race Rating: Toss-Up

Ward 3

Miguel Pittman is challenging Incumbent member Angel Hubbard, who narrowly bested him in the September 2024 special election last year. Hubbard received 162 votes in that race, and Pittman had 146 votes. Hubbard had the endorsement of New Haven Mayor Justin Elicker.

No matter the result, Pittman will be on the ballot in November as he secured both the Independent ballot line and the Republican ballot line. Though in such a Democratic city, his best shot is in the Democratic primary.

Hubbard is Ward 3’s Democratic Ward Committee Co-Chair and a home healthcare provider. Pittman co-runs Sandra’s Next Generation restaurant.

Since Hubbard won the first time, and now has the benefit of incumbency. I believe the race favors her over Pittman.

Race Rating: Likely Hubbard

Ward 18

In Ward 18, Zelma Harris is challenging the endorsed candidate, Leland Moore.

Harris gathered just over the 68 signatures she needed to make the primary ballot. She almost forgot to put her own signature on her petition, but she narrowly put it just in time for it to count.

Harris is also an accountant who hopes to bring her mathematical skills to the board. Ward 18 consists of the neighborhood of Morris Cove. This neighborhood has both the highest home ownership rate in the city and is the ward where Republicans tend to have the most support (Trump got 41% of the vote here). The ward also contains a lot of coastal parkland, a coast guard station, parts of the airport, wastewater treatment facility, so it has a lot of different infrastructure in it.

Leland Moore, an Assistant Attorney General, says he is interested in being more involved in his neighborhood. He envisions advocating for his neighbors’ quality of life concerns due to the airport and traffic congestion.

I think Moore is favored here, but Harris can definitely give him a good challenge.

Race Rating: Likely Moore

Note: Some articles note a primary in Ward 16, but the Secretary of State website did not include it on the sample ballot.

New London Democratic Primary

In New London, unlike other Democratic primaries, only two candidates have challenged the endorsed slates of candidates.

Incumbent City Councilor Jefferey Hart is challenging the seven endorsed Row A candidates on the City Council. Incumbent Board of Education President Elaine Maynard-Adams is challenging the seven endorsed Row A candidates on the Board of Education.

As with many towns with primaries on the 9th, these two incumbents failed to receive the party endorsement after what was reported as a “rowdy” Democratic convention.

Candidates need 5% of the city’s registered and active Democratic voters to sign a petition to force a primary; 341 signatures total. Both successfully completed this task and were confident in their prospects in doing so.

As New London’s The Day reports, both Hart and Maynard-Adams are sharp critics of Democratic Mayor Michael Passero. This led to being left off the endorsement list.

Maynard-Adams tied with newcomer Nanci DeRobbio is the first vote for endorsements, but DeRobbio edged Maynard-Adams 25-24 in a subsequent vote. Hart, likely knowing he would not win a nomination, declined to be nominated, telling delegates he would prefer to force a primary election.

Though incumbents being left off endorsement lists isn’t uncommon (as evidenced by multiple primaries), a Board of Education president being left off the endorsed slate is surprising. Maynard Adams has been a board member for 18 years, eight as president.

Hart and Maynard-Adams have criticized Mayor Passero for his recommendation to flat-fund the school district budget for the upcoming year. Mayor Passero, for his part, is not up for re-election until 2027. Hart, in particular, has criticized Passero on school funding and the creation of a tax-rate stabilization account.

Race Rating

The top seven candidates (out of eight) will move on to the general election. Democratic candidates in New London (Which voted for Kamala Harris 71-26) are heavily favored, and all seven Democratic candidates (on both the city council and the board of education) will likely be elected to the city council.

These types of Democratic primaries are unique as unlike slates of candidates competing against one another, both Hart and Mayard-Adams have to convince Democratic primary voters to leave off one candidate on the endorsed slate, since voters can pick seven of the eight candidates running for each position.

Since their ire is against the Incumbent Mayor, and not any particular board member, it is more difficult for voters to differentiate between candidates and pick one to not include. This is unless a strategy hinges on voters only voting for one of the challengers, which is unlikely without a full slate of challengers.

However, since Maynard-Adams is a long-term incumbent, I give her a better chance than Hart (who has the CT DSA endorsement) to survive a Democratic primary. Hart also received the second-lowest amount of votes of any other Democrat on the City Council in 2023, which isn’t a great sign for him.

Maynard-Adams performed similarly to other candidates on the Board of Education that year. However, I would say the Row A endorsed candidates are favored in both of these primaries.

Race Rating (City Council) – Likely Row A (Party Endorsed Candidates)

Race Rating (Board of Education) – Lean Row A (Party Endorsed Candidates)

North Haven Democratic Primary

There is no competition in November for the position of First Selectman in North Haven. Incumbent Republican Michael Freda is running unopposed for another term.

How selectman boards work in North Haven (and in most towns) is that Democrats and Republicans run someone for both First Selectman and Selectman. However, three members form the selectboard. Whoever wins, the position of First Selectman is self-explanatory. The two positions of Selectman are slightly more complicated. The loser of the position of First Selectman can be a member of the selectboard if he received more votes than his party’s selectman candidate.

However, in North Haven, since no Democrat is running for First Selectman, all three members on the ballot for First Selectman and Selectman will win in November, so whoever wins the Democratic primary will be on the selectboard come November. Although Kamala Harris lost North Haven 45-53, Democrats are not putting up a candidate, despite it likely being a bluer year. This is likely because in the 2023 Local Elections, the Republican selectman candidate got over 64% of the vote, so Democrats don’t think they can compete for the position and would rather settle who wins the Select Board position in a Democratic primary.

Democrat David Cohen won a unanimous endorsement from the local party over longtime Selectwoman Sally Buemi.

Cohen is a North Haven volunteer firefighter, a local small business owner, and an in-house counsel for a CT-based Fortune 500 manufacturing company

Buemi, a 12-year incumbent, told the local party that she would primary the endorsed Democratic candidate, saying, “I am confident that I’m the most qualified candidate.”

Race Rating

Buemi faced a controversy in June dubbed “popsicle-gate” by locals. Some were unhappy that Buemi and Democratic Board of Finance member Nancy Barrett didn’t like the effort of the PTA selling free Popsicles to all residents during a recent budget referendum vote by town voters. The referendum passed by a 2-to-1 margin.

Buemi said the optics were poor, and she saw it as a commercialization of voters’ votes. Buemi, though, told a reporter that she was likely not to receive the town party’s endorsement in July, so it’s unlikely that this prompted the local party not to endorse her. A falling out likely happened before this.

Buemi was against the town referendum so which could have contributed to her not getting the town endorsement. Cohen was an outspoken supporter of the referendum, which provided funding for public schools, police and fire departments, and other town services and programs.

This primary feels like an instance where local Democrats want a change, a common sentiment among Democrats post the 2024 Presidential Election. Cohen told the local Democratic town committee after he won their endorsement, “Our party and our town are ready to move in a new direction…”

Cohen is likely favored, though Buemi’s long tenure should give her a fighting chance; she has frequently underperformed the partisan lean of the town.

Race Rating: Likely Cohen

Norwalk Democratic Primary

Along with Hamden, this is one of the primaries I will be paying most attention to on the 9th.

Longtime Incumbent Mayor Harry Rilling is retiring after 12 years as Mayor. Two Democrats are looking to succeed him. A Democrat is favored in a town that Kamala Harris won comfortably, 64-35. Though the 2023 Mayoral Race was much closer at a 55-45 win for Rilling, a Democrat is still heavily favored to lead the sixth most populous city in the state.

The primary election is between Common Council President Barbara Smyth and Common Council Member Darlene Young. Smyth won the endorsement of the town committee.

For additional information on Norwalk Politics, I highly recommend the publication Nancy on Norwalk for local coverage, but I’ll summarize some stuff here.

Common Council Member Darlene Young forced a primary against Smyth by gathering far over the required 1,033 signatures, with nearly 1300 sent to Norwalk’s Democratic Registrar of Voters.

Unlike some other primaries around the state, though an intense race, the local Democratic committee had no ill will towards Young. Chair of DTC Colin Hosten congratulated Darlene for meeting the signature requirement for the primary and said it’ll allow residents to hear from both sides. He also stressed party unity for the general election hoping not to have intra-party fights that can affect results.

It should also be noted that the DTC endorsement was very close between Young and Smyth. Young narrowly lost 25 votes to 29 votes. A close result that likely signals a close race.

Multiple committee members remarked that both women have the strength, dedication, and leadership needed to be mayor. Smyth is a retired teacher and four-term council member. Young is a seasoned city employee and incumbent council member.

This is a rare occasion in Norwalk; the city hasn’t had a primary in over a decade for local offices, so we don’t have much of a baseline to go off.

I would say this race is a toss-up despite Smyth’s endorsement. I don’t think she is favored that much, and Young could easily win. Both women have bases of support and elected experience, so I think residents would be similarly split between the two candidates.

There will be a debate on September 4th at Norwalk Public Library’s Main Branch from 6:30 pm to 8:00 pm.

Race Rating: Toss-Up

Oxford Republican Primary

Oxford, one of the redder towns in the state, has a primary election for the position of First Selectman and Selectman.

Incumbent First Selectman George Temple and Incumbent Selectman Arnold Jensen are challenging party-endorsed candidates Jeffrey Luff and Rob Boroski.

Longtime Incumbent George Temple expected to leave office on his own terms. Though at age 79, Temple was ready to run for an 8th term as First Selectman.

Temple found himself surprised that his challenger was his longtime protege Jeffrey Luff. Someone that Temple said was someone he saw as his successor. Luff, Oxford’s economic development director, discussed the importance of new energy and said that Luff “had lost his fastball”. Temple says the town continues to thrive.

Luff has served on various boards in town since 2006, though he announced his run earlier in February because he needed to gain some name ID. Temple feels strong about his accomplishments as First Selectman, including significant growth and development, says he’s still running again.

Temple also said that Luff’s selectman partner, Robert Baronowski, a local police officer, would need to “recuse himself” from a lot of town matters on police budgets and contracts, which is not helpful.

The Republican Party Endorsement in July was razor-thin. Luff won the endorsement by 6 votes, 157-151. This represents the close tension, not only between the longtime incumbent and his protege, but Republican primary voters. The race was even closer for Selectmen, where Luff’s running mate Borowski won an even narrower 155-153 victory over Temple’s running mate Arnie Jensen.

In a town that Trump won comfortably 60-39, the Republican primary will essentially determine who the First Selectman and Selectman of Oxford are.

I expect a razor-thin race here as Temple still seems to be popular, but some Republican voters want a change. I am leaning towards Temple retaining his job due to his long-time incumbency. Huff will give him the strongest challenge of his political career.

Due to the expected close nature of this race, I’m adding a toss-up as well to indicate it will be closer than other races I marked as Lean, but still used Lean to indicate who I think would come out victorious.

Race Rating: Lean Temple/Toss-Up

Plainfield Republican Primary

Similar to Oxford, Plainfield also has a Republican primary for the position of First Selectman and Selectman. Again, it’s a case of incumbents without the Republican endorsement against party-endorsed candidates.

Incumbent First Selectman Kevin Cunningham and Incumbent Selectman Arthur Gagne are challenging the endorsed party candidates, Paul Sweet and Michael Surprenant.

The big difference between Oxford and Plainfield is, as the publication The Day puts it, the continuing saga of a nearly 20-year-long political feud between Kevin Cunningham and Paul Sweet.

Paul Sweet, the former Democratic First Selectman of Plainfield, is making a comeback as a Republican. Sweet was the First Selectman from 1989 to 2001, and from 2007 to 2017. Sweet is now attempting his third non-consecutive tenure as First Selectman. He became a Republican in the spring, noting how the Democratic party “left” him long ago.

The surprising thing is, he isn’t the only former Democrat in this race. Lo and behold, the 2005 winner of First Selectman was Democrat Kevin Cunningham. You read that correctly, both Cunningham and Sweet are former Democratic First Selectmen and are now both Republicans, running against each other. I don’t know many examples in the state (or the country, for that matter) where this scenario has happened, but here we are.

Selectman Cunningham won in 2005 as a Democrat with only 42% of the vote, after the vote was split between a write-in Candidate and a Republican. In 2007, Cunningham ran for re-election on both the Democratic and Republican lines. However, he lost to Sweet, who ran as a petitioning candidate 47-53. Cunningham attempted a rematch against Sweet in 2009 as a petitioning candidate, though he lost in a landslide 19-81. A decade later, in 2019, Cunningham finally made his comeback, ousting Incumbent Selectwoman Democrat Cathy Tendrich in a narrow 48-44 victory. Cunningham has won comfortably ever since.

Race Rating

Sweet says he’s pulling out of retirement because he’s concerned the town is “compromising the integrity of the fund balance“. He also cites his dislike of Cunningham, saying he’s driving the town into the ground and people don’t see it.

Sweet didn’t run for re-election in 2017, saying he had a disillusionment with state and federal tape. He also noted the difficulty of the job. Clearly, the recent budget referendums have made him want to be back in the seat.

Recently, in a budget referendum, the Board of Finance and voters pulled $1.2 million from this balance to offset a tax rate increase. The largest appropriation in town history. Cunningham supported this, saying the new tax revenue from Uline and Amazon will supplant the need for this action again. The budget, however, took 4 tries by voters to pass in the end. All 3 amendments failed the first two times, and one failed the third time.

Cunningham got the 146 signatures needed to force a Republication primary.

Now I’m conflicted in this race. Sweet currently has the momentum in this race by garnering the town endorsement. He has also won a general election without a ballot line. However, he will need to win Republican voters as a former Democrat. I’m curious how he contends with that. Cunningham is a long-term incumbent who has already proven himself with Republican primary voters. But losing the primary endorsement isn’t an amazing sign for an incumbent. Honestly, it’s anyone’s race

Race Rating: Toss-Up

Stamford Democratic Primary

Note: The Secretary of State’s website oddly only lists the primary in the 8th District for the Board of Representatives. However, there are Democratic primaries confirmed in six districts.

Last week, I discussed a lot of context about the infighting between Stamford Democrats. The two factions have had many disagreements over many issues in the town, ranging from the town charter to the Democratic Town Committee position. More context for this race can be found in my article listed here.

In the article, I discussed a lot of context, but didn’t discuss the candidates too much, so I will do that here.

District 5

Incumbent Bonnie Kim Campbell will challenge party-endorsed candidates Nicole Beckham and Kierra Dorsey.

Campbell is a two-term incumbent who has served on the Land Use and Urban Redevelopment Committee, as well as committees on public safety, housing, and social services.

Beckham is a founder of the NorMel Foundation. She also has more than 30 years of experience in the human services field. Dorsey has worked for the Connecticut judicial branch for over 15 years. This information was found on the Stamford Endorsed Dems Website.

Campbell won a primary in this district in 2021, but she had the party endorsement at the time. Also, if she wins, she would have to beat one of the two endorsed Democrats, and neither has an edge over the other. At the moment, I would say these lean towards the party-endorsed candidates, but I would not be surprised by a win by Campbell.

Race Rating: Lean Beckham and Dorsey

District 6

Incumbent Denis Paterson and longtime former member of the Board Lindsey Miller will challenge party-endorsed candidates Ryan Hughes and Parker Johnson.

Paterson joined the board in 2015. He is a member of the Steering Committee and Personnel Committee. He is the owner of Diversified Ventures. Miller was a former member of the board in the 7th District. He was a member for over a decade; however, he resigned last year after moving into the 6th district. Miller is a retired IBM Financial Executive.

According to the 2025 Endorsed Democrats Stamford Website. Hughes was a policy analyst in the State Senate. He is also a member of CT’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law Team. Johnson works in the renewable energy industry.

If there is any race in Stamford, I think the challengers can prevail over the endorsed candidates; I think it’s this one. As a longtime member, Paterson should have the name ID to hold his spot, and Miller’s long tenure on the board should also give him a leg up against the challengers. The party endorsement in Connecticut, though, is very valuable, however, so I expect this race to be very close. I will give the edge to Paterson and Miller, though.

Race Rating: Lean Paterson and Miller

District 8

Incumbent Anabel Figueroa is challenging the party-endorsed candidates in District 8. President of the Board Nina Sherwood and Theo Gross.

Sherwood was recently elected President by the Board of Representatives after former President of the Board Jeff Curtis died in July. Sherwood has been on the board since 2017. Sherwood has been seen as a consistent check against Mayor Caroline Simmons.

Gross is experienced in local campaigns and a statewide scheduler for Senator Richard Blumenthal (D).

Figeruoa has been on the board for over 20 years, winning a seat in District 8 in 2001. However, controversial comments that received national attention last year resulted in her having a brutal loss in the Democratic Primary against her opponent for her state House seat in the 148th district. I covered this in greater detail in this article.

Due to these comments and the fact that Democratic Primary voters already voted Figueroa out of office within the last year. She might have a loyal base, but I don’t think it would be enough for a victory on the 9th.

Race Rating: Likely Sherwood and Gross

District 10

Brittany Lawrence is challenging party-endorsed candidates Felix Gardner and Stephanie Sylvestre in a primary.

According to the Endorsed Democrats Website, Gardner is a software engineer. Sylvestre is an educator and social worker.

Lawrence, a resident of the BLVD apartment complex, was an outspoken opponent of turning the building into student housing.

There is no incumbent in this district, so no one has an advantage other than the party endorsement. Due to this, Gardner and Sylvestre are favored. But the lack of an incumbent could mean Lawrence could pull out a victory.

Race Rating: Lean Gardner and Sylvestre

District 13

Dave Adams is challenging party-endorsed candidates and incumbents Eric Morson and Amiel Goldberg.

Morson was elected to the board in 2017. Goldberg was elected in 2021. Morson, the vice chair of the Board’s safety and health committee. Goldberg is a member of a committee that deals with housing, community development, and social services.

According to the 2025 Endorsed Democrats Website, Goldberg has more than 35 years of experience in financial risk management. Morson has more than 30 years of experience as a financial advisor and has been a tax partner for over 20 years.

Adams is known to frequently attend meetings of the Board of Representatives and the city’s land use boards.

Due to their incumbency, I expect Morson and Goldberg to comfortably win this race.

Race Rating: Likely Morson and Goldberg

District 17

Incumbent Sean Boeger and Rosa Colon will challenge Party-endorsed candidates Lewis Finkel and Incumbent Bobby Pavia.

Pavia was first elected in 2021 and is the vice chair of the personnel committee. According to the 2025 Endorsed Democrats Website, Finkel is a retired CCSU adjunct professor of Construction Estimation.

Redistricting moved Boeger into the 17th district. Boeger was also elected in 2021 and is a Stamford Police Sergeant. He is co-chair of the fiscal committee. Colon is a 21-year-old veterinary student.

Boeger and Colon lost a recent election in 2024 to be members of the DCC in District 17. A race with a similar turnout to a primary, only a year ago. Because of this recent loss, I think Pavia and Finkel are favored.

Race Rating: Lean Pavia and Finkel

Stratford Democratic Primary

Mayor

For the mayoral race, Linda Manos is challenging party-endorsed candidate David Chess in the Democratic primary. The winner will have an uphill battle against Republican incumbent Laura Hoydick.

Despite Kamala Harris winning Stratford by a comfortable 59-40 margin. Republican mayor Laura Hoydick won a landslide 63-37 victory in 2021. She is running for a third 4-year term.

Hoydick was a former State Representative in the 120th district, before she won her first term in 2017 in a closer 50-44 win.

David Chess, a doctor and businessman, overwhelmingly won the support of the Stratford Democratic Town Committee, winning a vote of 53-7 over Manos. Manos, the former owner of Pepin’s restaurant and vice-chair of the town’s zoning commission, successfully gathered 650 signatures for the primary.

Despite her struggles with the Democratic Town Committee, Manos said she submitted over 1,000 signatures, indicating she clearly has support in the primary. Manos said it is important for voters to decide, and not appointed officials on the committee.

Chess and Manos are running on similar platforms. Chess’ website discusses expanding the economic base of the town and how to raise revenue to lower taxes. He also discusses investments in education and infrastructure.

Manos similarly discusses the issue of the tax burden on residents and hopes to attract business to reinvigorate the town’s economy. She hopes to use her 30+ years of business experience to facilitate this plan. Her plan includes a 10-point plan to revitalize Stratford.

For the Democrats complaining about the age of politicians this year. This is probably not the primary for you. CTInsider lists Chess as 72 and Manos as 77.

This race will likely be close. Two experienced people in their careers, Manos a long business career, and Chess, a longtime physician and founder of PriMed. Manos has a bit more political experience due to her vice-chair on the town’s zoning commission. However, I believe that Chess’s institutional support from the Town’s Democratic Town Committee would bring him over the top and give him the opportunity to face Hoydick in November.

Race Rating: Lean Chess

Town Council

District 3 and District 4

Stratford’s Town Council operates as individual districts, not at-large, like many other towns in the state. There are ten members on the legislative body. Some might recognize District 5’s Anthony Afryie, who ran in a special election in the 21st State Senate district earlier this year. There are two primaries, one in District 3, another in District 4.

In District 3, Incumbent Town Councilor Alvin O’Neal is challenging party-endorsed candidate William Boyd, a town constable member. The reported reason, according to the CT Post, is that members of the town committee are frustrated at O’Neal occasionally siding with Republicans on town council votes. So the committee threw their support to Boyd over O’Neal. O’Neal had the party endorsement in the 2023 primary, winning 63-37. However, with only 200 votes, the endorsement can flip the result against him this time around.

In District 4, Incumbent councilor Rene Gibson has received the party endorsement of the local town committee. However, he faces a challenge from former town councilor David Harden.

David Harden, a three-term member of the council, attempted to win his seat back in 2023 after a two-year absence from the council. Interestingly, Stratford Town Council Members only have a three-term limit; however, after a two-year break (one term), they can run again.

Harden is known to not have a great relationship with the local party. He failed to submit enough signatures to qualify in 2023, but he successfully did so this time.

O’Neal had the party endorsement in the 2023 primary, winning 63-37.

However, with only 200 votes, the endorsement can flip the result against him this time around. This is honestly what I expect, and I believe Boyd will win this election. In these types of elections, with fewer than 200-300 voters. It’s about turning out your supporters. Due to such low turnout, it’s unpredictable, but in this type of election, I usually lean towards the endorsed candidates.

Race Rating

Council District 3: Likely Boyd

Council District 4: Likely Gibson

Waterbury Republican Primary

A few weeks ago, I talked about with no mayoral race on the ballot this year, there is a lot of attention focused on the Board of Aldermen races.

There were challenges against both the Democratic and Republican candidates. However, surprisingly, all the Democratic challengers failed to gather enough signatures to force a primary. But all Republican challengers did gather enough signatures to force a primary.

Endorsed Candidates Have an * Next to Their Name. Incumbents have an (I) next to their name.

For more details on the context behind the primary. I will link the article I wrote here.

District 1
Michael Grosso*
Jameson Stock*
Mary Grace Cavallo (I)
Amanda Nardozzi

District 2
Andrew Clisham*
Ruben Rodriguez* (I)
Crystal Gordon-Diaz
Bryan McEntee
Joshua Brenner

District 3
John “Jack” Alseph* (I)
Adrian Sanchez*
Efrain Torres III

District 4
Abigail Diaz*
Kelly Zimmermann* (I)
Andre Michaud Jr

District 5
Allen Leon*
Reynaldo Melendez*
Paul Kondash
George Noujaim (I)

Race Rating

Waterbury GOP Chair Dawn Maiorano is hopeful that Republicans can whittle down Democratic majorities in November, as many incumbents are not running for re-election. Democrats have a maximum ten of the fifteen total seats on the board currently.

Two incumbents, both Cavallo and Noujaim, did not receive the town endorsement. GOP leaders felt they were too close and cooperative with the Democratic majority.

Cavallo, however, has won without the town endorsement before. In the 2023 Republican primary, she won a seat, beating one of the two party-endorsed candidates, Republican Gary Hychko.

Though again, it is a low turnout race, I believe she could likely do so again. The problem is I’m not exactly sure which of the two candidates she could beat out, or if she could take her partner on the same slate as her over the line (the top two candidates move on in all five primaries).

Because of this, I’m listing District 1 as Lean Cavallo/Toss-Up (2nd Seat). In Districts 2-4, I believe the endorsed candidates will win easily. In District 5, it’s possible Noujaim has a chance, but I’m leaning towards the endorsed candidates. However, since all these primaries are low turnout, I’m expecting at least one of my predictions to be incorrect, and an upset to occur. Which one, I’m not sure, we will have to wait and see.

Race Rating

District 1: Lean Cavallo/Toss-Up (2nd Seat)
District 2-4: Likely Row A (Party-Endorsed Candidates)
District 5: Lean Row A (Party-Endorsed Candidates)

Wolcott Republican Primary

Wolcott has a unique Republican primary happening on September 9th.

11-term incumbent mayor Thomas Dunn is not on the ballot. This is not a surprise, as Dunn typically runs as an unaffiliated petitioning candidate in November.

However, his 4-term streak of unopposed elections will come to an end. He will face someone on the Republican ballot; however, they both have very different objectives in their candidacies.

Government Affairs Consultant James Paolino is seeking to block Sales Manager Paul D’Angelo from obtaining the Republican line on the November ballot.

Both Paolino and D’Angelo are not newcomers to Wolcott Politics. D’Angelo is a former member of the Town Council and Board of Education, and Paolino is a longtime member of the Republican Town Committee and the Water and Sewer Commission.

Paolino says he will not campaign if he wins the Republican Party nomination. Holding the Republican Town Committee endorsement, his sole goal is to ensure that D’Angelo does not receive the nomination and campaign against Mayor Dunn.

D’Angelo argues that there must be a candidate for mayor, and it would allow a serious conversation about the town. Essentially, D’Angelo wants to offer voters an alternative to the longtime incumbent mayor. He also notes that the town hasn’t nominated a Republican since 2001. D’Angelo is already on the ballot in November as a petitioning candidate, gathering the necessary 200 signatures needed to do so.

However, Paolino and local Republicans on the Town Committee see the situation differently. Paolino has long been a placeholder on the ballot, as no one has come forward to run as a candidate. He says that they don’t want D’Angelo representing Republicans due to an arrest he had last year stemming from a domestic dispute. In addition, he was sued by Wells Fargo for not making monthly payments. Paolino also says D’Angelo has changed his Republican affiliation multiple times.

D’Angelo argues back that there was no violence in the reported incident. He expected the charge of 3rd degree assault, for which he apologized on social media, to be dismissed. He also said he was a Republican before, but became an unaffiliated candidate when he won his town council seat in 2021.

An Op-Ed by UConn Professor Drew McWenney, published by CTInsider, accuses Paolino of saying anything to win the primary, and says his cheap smear tactics won’t work.

I think D’Angelo is trying to force a conversation on the incumbent mayor will work on Republican primary voters who haven’t had a choice in years on the ballot. Though Dunn is heavily favored in November, and despite the accusations, a campaign to block someone else, I’m not sure would work for Republican primary voters.

Race Ratings: Lean D’Angelo

Overall Race Ratings

Race	Race Rating
Bloomfield Democratic Primary All Offices	Likely Row A (Party-Endorsed Candidates)
Bridgeport Democratic Primary Council Race District 137 Council Race District 138	Likely Nieves and Valle Lean Pereria and Medina
Chester Democratic Primary First Selectman	Likely Lignar
Greenwich Republican Primary Board of Estimates and Taxation	Toss-Up
Griswold Republican Primary Selectman	Lean Canova
Haddam Republican Primary Town Clerk	Lean Siegrist
Hamden Democratic Primary Mayor Councilman At Large Seats Councilman District 6 Councilman District 7 Councilman District 8 Councilman District 9	Lean Baez Likely Row A: Crouch, Foley, Hunt, and Kiely District 6: Lean Hoff District 7: Likely Webber District 8: Likely Stevens District 9: Lean Parks
New Britain Democratic Primary Ward 4 Alderperson	Likely McNamara/Lean Ortiz-Luna
New Haven Democratic Primary Ward 1 Alderperson Ward 3 Alderperson Ward 18 Alderperson	Toss-Up Likely Hubbard Likely Moore

New London Democratic Primary City Council Board of Education	Likely Row A (Party-Endorsed Candidates) Lean Row A (Party-Endorsed Candidates)
North Haven Democratic Primary Selectmen	Likely Cohen
Norwalk Democratic Primary Mayor	Toss-Up
Oxford Republican Primary First Selectmen Selectmen	Lean Temple/Toss-Up Lean Jensen/Toss-Up
Plainfield Republican Primary First Selectmen Selectman	Toss-Up Toss-Up
Stamford Democratic Primary Board of Representatives District 5 District 6 District 7 District 10 District 13 District 17	Lean Beckham and Dorsey Lean Paterson and Miller Likely Sherwood and Gross Lean Gardner and Sylvrestre Likely Morson and Goldberg Lean Pavia and Finkel

Stratford Democratic Primary Mayor Town Council District 3 Town Council District 4	Lean Chess Likely Boyd Likely Gibson
Waterbury Republican Primary Board of Aldermen District 1 Board of Aldermen District 2-4 Board of Aldermen District 5	Lean Cavallo/Toss-Up (2nd Seat) Likely Row A (Party-Endorsed Candidates) Lean Row A (Party-Endorsed Candidates)
Wolcott Republican Primary Mayor	Lean D’Angelo

Stamford Mayor Caroline Simmons. Source: City of Stamford Website

Overview

We’ve talked a lot about Democratic primaries over the last couple of weeks. But there is another one we have to discuss in Stamford.

Stamford has had an active couple of Democratic primary cycles between a faction led by Stamford Mayor Caroline Simmons and an opposing faction. The two factions have had a number of disagreements around a variety of issues over the past few years.

Issues included amendments to the City Charter, conduct of town endorsements, and general consensus with the Mayor or opposition.

Mayor Caroline Simmons is running for a second term. She will face the Republican-endorsed candidate Nicola Tarzia in November. Simmons did not get a primary challenge from former Stamford police sergeant Michael Loughran. Loughran told reporters, after the town committee endorsed Simmons, that he’ll gather signatures to force a primary. However, Loughran did not gather enough signatures to force a primary for the mayoral race.

However, there will be a Democratic primary on September 9th for the Stamford Board of Representatives in five districts. Some districts have an incumbent who did not receive the town endorsement and are challenging the endorsed slate.

Stamford Mayor

Caroline Simmons has been a rising star in the Connecticut Democratic Party. The former state representative won a tough 2021 race against Independent Bobby Valentine. Valentine received the support of the Republican Party and benefited from outside spending to aid him in his race. Simmons won the race 53-47 and became the first woman to win the Stamford mayoral race.

Before her mayoral tenure, she was the State Representative for the 144th District.

Simmons outlined her 2nd term priorities, which included rebuilding Westhill High School and Roxbury Elementary. She also talked about increasing investment in major infrastructure projects and the city’s parks.

Simmons has received criticism about some issues, such as a failed affordable housing proposal, zoning laws, and her opinion on the local charter revision process. However, she remains generally popular.

Charter Debate

One of the biggest recent debates in Stamford was about the city’s charter. According to city law, every ten years, the charter (which defines the functions, powers, and organizations of the city), needs to be approved by the voters.

Democrats in the city quickly split into two factions. One was led by Mayor Simmons, who told city voters to vote “no” on proposed changes set by the City’s charter revision committee and the Board of Representatives. The other faction, led by the aforementioned Board wanted city voters to vote “yes”.

Simmons and her allies wanted voters to vote “no” as the charter made it easier for residents to appeal and reverse zoning approvals for developments. In addition, they felt that several proposed provisions had issues. One was it would let any city owner sign a petition to appeal planning and zoning approvals (and not just neighbors).

Stamford and Westport are the only municipalities in the state that allow a direct appeal of planning and zoning decisions by a committee. In Stamford, that is the Board of Representatives (BOR).

A majority of the Board of Representatives and State Rep. David Michel told reporters, the proposed revisions were valuable by providing checks and balances for the people. Though the mayor said several projects couldn’t have occurred under these proposed rules, the majority leader of the BOR, Nina Sherwood, called Simmons’ fears overblown.

Simmons went to the state legislature to block some parts of the charter revision. House Speaker Matt Ritter (D-Hartford) and State House Minority Leader Vincent Candelora (R-North Branford) both agreed with Simmons, saying some of the proposed charter proposals go too far and could set a dangerous precedent in other towns. They noted it would pit local home rule against state authority, and would pit slower development against ambitious development.

Though successful, many other proposals, like how much power the Board of Representatives could have, and how appointments are conducted, were still on the ballot in November of 2023. Though some criticized Simmons for not appealing to the voters directly, and her opponents called her secret measure a “rat” (as in benefiting one person or group). Some felt it was just statewide policy.

During the November vote, Simmons and her allies came out victorious, winning a 57-43 vote “no”, with a majority of the city’s voters opposing the changes to the city’s governing document. Sherwood told the press that a lot of money was spent to tell people to vote against what she believed was in the city’s best interest.

Some other controversial proposed changes included the appointment process for non-elected boards and commissions. The proposed change would give any one of the Board of Representatives the power to nominate a candidate when the mayor fails to appoint a member. Some felt it was a proposed power grab by the Board.

Democratic City Committee Primaries March 2024

The feud continued between Democrats in Stamford during the Democratic City Committee Primaries a few months later.

Not every town has this process, but in Stamford, voters elect the members who are on the city’s Democratic Party committee. This committee endorses candidates, provides candidate support, and is part of the town party leadership and strategy to mobilize and get voter engagement. Some members are part of the Board of Education, the Board of Finance, and the Board of Representatives

Most members running were split into two groups: Stamford Dems for Responsive Government, and Democrats United for Stamford. Mayor Simmons and DCC Chair Robin Druckman supported the United Team.

One of the major disagreements between the two groups was the practice of members endorsing themselves for board positions. Very important in a state where an endorsement means easier ballot access.

The United Team was taking aim at 14 members of the Board of Representatives who were on the Responsive Government Slate for being “double dippers” on endorsements. The endorsements are important for determining who gets the rubber stamp of party endorsement on the ballot for state legislature races in the city and municipal elections in 2025.

Dual Op-Eds by BOR Rep. Carl Weinberg and BOR Majority Nina Sherwood showed opposing oppositions. Weinburg targeted his colleagues for endorsing themselves. Sherwood said it’s not a pretty situation; however, the party has allowed this situation because of “predatory behavior against anyone that doesn’t toe the line“.

Members were split amongst the two sides, as they all had different perspectives on the situation they faced. Some said they wouldn’t double dip, and only retain one of their current positions; others disagreed.

During the March 2024 election, however, the United Slate swept the election. The group aligned with Mayor Simmons won 27 of the 34 seats up for grabs. The incumbent Board of Representatives fared poorly during the election, with only three of the fifteen incumbents winning their districts. Simmons now had many more of her allies on the committee.

State Reps. Ousted in 2024 Primaries

Simmons and her allies on the committee now had the votes to not give endorsements to two local state representatives with whom they had many disagreements. State Rep. David Michel and State Rep. Anabel Figueroa. Both were on the outs with the town committees, along with three other members of the State House delegation. However, out of the 9 contested primaries for State House and Senate that involved an incumbent legislator in August 2024, only Michel and Figueroa lost, signaling it was far more than just internal disagreements.

Figueroa, in particular, garnered national attention after remarks she made about her opponent, Jonathan Jacobson. Figueroa, who already looked in danger of losing her seat, told voters in a Spanish ad that, when translated, was “we cannot permit a person who is of Jewish origin, of Jewish origin, to represent our community. It’s impossible”.

Figueroa found herself in national headlines after those remarks, which were described as very antisemitic. She was encouraged to apologize, but Jacobson did not accept her initial apology until she offered an unconditional apology after she spoke with a rabbi. However the damage was done and Figueroa lost in a 37-63 landslide against Jacobson.

Michel’s opponent, Eilish Collins Main, was part of that faction that Mayor Simmons was a part of. His loss could be due to disagreements he had with Mayor Simmons, as Michel was known as a liberal Democrat, but Main was just more popular with voters and had a strong background in local politics. Michel lost by a large margin 44-56.

Who is in the September Primaries

Party-Endorsed Candidates Marked With A *

In all districts, voters have to vote for up to two candidates on their ballot.

Find the ballot on the State’s Secretary of State Website listed here.

District 5

Nicole Beckham*

Kierra Dorsey*

Bonnie Kim Campbell

District 6

Ryan Hughes*

Parker Johnson*

Lindsey Miller

Denis W. Patterson

District 10

Felix Gardner*

Stephanie Sylvestre*

Brittany Lawrence

District 13

Amiel Goldberg*

Eric Morson*

Dave Adams

District 17

Lewis Finkel*

Bobby Pavia*

Sean Boeger

Rosa Colon

Notable Points About Challenges

With all the recent infighting over the past few years, it is no surprise that challengers emerged against the party-endorsed candidates.

In the 5th District, Incumbent Campbell will challenge the endorsed slate. She was elected to the board in 2021.

Similarly, in the 6th District, Incumbent Paterson will challenge the endorsed slate. He has been on the board since 2015. He will run alongside Lindsey Miller, who was previously on the board in the neighboring 7th district for a decade before resigning due to moving out of said district.

Surprisingly, there is currently no race in the 8th district. At the last minute, Board President Nina Sherwood said she was withdrawing from the race. Former State Rep. Figueroa was looking to challenge Sherwood and her fellow endorsed member, Theo Gross; however, it looks like she did not make the ballot.

Another incumbent, Sean Boeger, will challenge the endorsed candidates in the 17th district due to how redistricting worked in 2022.

The rest of the candidates have interesting profiles and experiences that they will have to use to appeal to voters, for what is likely a very low turnout primary in September. You can find out more about the other candidates in this piece by the Stamford Advocate.

Overview

Based on recent elections, I would say that the candidates who have the party endorsement are likely to beat out their challengers, even if they are incumbents. However, I wouldn’t be too surprised if one or two incumbents make it through. I think most of the endorsed candidates will prevail at the end of the day.

Stamford has had a long history of Democratic infighting in the city, and it will only continue into the following weeks. I look forward to seeing what happens in these downballot races.

I will soon have articles on primaries we are looking at on September 9th, and will try to make some predictions in the bigger races.

Thanks for Reading!

A postcard of Waterbury City Hall. Credit to Jablonski Building Conservation, Inc. (JBC)

Overview

Over the past few weeks, I’ve focused on the elections at the top of the ballot in many local races across the state. This included the mayoral race in Hamden and the town council election in Bloomfield. What I wanted to remind readers about is the many other offices that are on the ballot. This ranges from town to town as each town has its own government structure and decides which committees include elected and appointed positions. This leads to a variety of positions on the ballot in November.

One city I wanted to focus on is Waterbury. In 2023, Waterbury had a competitive mayoral election for a open seat. Democrat Paul Pernerewski defeated Republican Dawn Maiorano in a close 50-45 victory.

Perenerwski is not on the ballot this year as Waterbury has a four-year mayoral term. However, there could be competitive races in both the primary and general elections. The Board of Aldermen could potentially have Republican and Democratic primaries in all five districts. There are likely Democratic primaries on the Board of Education.

Brief Background on Waterbury

Waterbury, known as the “Brass City” due to their historical dominance of the brass industry, is the fifth-largest city in the state.

In the 1920s, the Naugatuck Valley produced more than 1/3 of the brass manufactured in the United States. This brass was used in a wide variety of products, including screws, washers, toy airplanes, and cocktail shakers.

However, Waterbury and the surrounding area have watched the brass industry go overseas while local factories shut down in the following decades.

Currently, Waterbury has a growing downtown area with notable attractions such as the Mattatuck Museum and the Palace Theater.

Mayor Perenerswki noted that he wasn’t surprised by the 2024 presidential results. He explained that he felt National Democrats did not address the needs of the people in the community. In addition, Republicans were able to tap into the grievances and dispossession of the white working-class voters across the country.

Waterbury has an interesting and rich political past. Though there have not been any major controversies in the last 25 years, the 20th century past is a whole different story. T. Frank Hayes, the city’s mayor from 1930 to 1939, was convicted with 26 others for a conspiracy to defraud the city out of one million dollars. The city had years of serious financial strain due to mismanagement. In 1992, Mayor Joseph Santopietro was convicted in a payoff conspiracy where he received bribes and kickbacks disguised as loans. Mayor Phillip Giordano was found soon after his mayoral tenure convicted on child sex charges and possible political corruption.

The 2024 election results in Waterbury had Kamala Harris winning the town 55-44.

Waterbury System of Government

Waterbury has a town-council form of government.

The council is comprised of the mayor and 15 aldermen. The 15 aldermen are split among five districts, with the three highest vote-getters in each district winning a spot on the board.

The mayor and aldermen are elected biennially in odd years. The board of education also has staggered terms to ensure there are veteran members on the board.

A party cannot have more than 2/3 of the seats on the board of aldermen.

2023 Elections

Democrats have done well in local elections in Waterbury in recent years. In 2023, Democrats won the maximum number of Alderman seats they could have won (10). Democrats also won the Mayor Race, City Clerk, City Sheriff, and the majority of seats on the Board of Education.

The closest race on the Board of Aldermen was in the first district. The Board of Education results were also fairly close.

Board of Aldermen and Board of Education Results in 2023. Source: Secretary of State Website

Republican Board of Aldermen Primary Races

Despite this dominance from the Democratic party, and the unlikelihood of gains that can lead to a change of party control, City GOP chair Dawn Maiorano believes Republicans can whittle down Democratic majorities.

However, Waterbury GOP has to contend with infighting due to two Republican primaries in Aldermanic districts, and plausible challenges in all five, depending on candidates receiving the required signatures needed.

Maiorano describes the situation as “it’s the family fight“. She explained that once it’s over, everyone will unite behind the campaign. That wish might be far-fetched, however, as Republican factions accuse the others of not being sufficiently supportive of the party.

In District 2, Josh Brenner qualified for the primary ballot against endorsed candidates Ruben Rodriguez and Andrew Clisham.

In District 4, former Minority Leader George Noujaim and Paul Kondash have gathered enough signatures to challenge the endorsed slate of Allen Leon and Reynaldo Melendez.

In District 1, Alderman Mary Cavallo is running with Amy Nardozzi as a slate. They still have to finish gathering signatures. However, this is the second time Cavallo has not received the town’s endorsement, yet she made the ballot in 2023, and intends to again. Cavallo and Nardozzi will face the endorsed slate of Michael Grosso and Jameson Stock,

Both Cavallo and Noujaim have faced scrutiny from Maiorano, who says they are not reliable Republicans. They did not receive the endorsements due to GOP leaders feeling like they are too close and cooperative with the Democratic majority.

With all the infighting, it’ll be interesting to see how Maiorano can get the GOP back behind candidates they didn’t endorse if they emerge victorious in the primary. Primaries in the other Aldermen districts are possible.

Endorsed Candidates in Other Districts

District 3: Kelly Zimmerman, Abigail Diaz

District 5: Jack Alspeh, Adrian Sanchez

Board of Education: Thomas Van Stone Sr., Terrance Lott, Jr.

Waterbury DTC vs United Democrats of Waterbury

Democrats are not free from infighting. However, they face a slightly different situation.

The Democratic Town Committee (DTC) is facing challenges from the organization United Democrats of Waterbury. United Democrats of Waterbury believes the Waterbury DTC is a stagnant status quo and that they have concentrated power and limited transparency. They’ve also campaigned for a more diverse slate across every demographic.

According to a Facebook Post by the Waterbury Observer, the issues date back over a hundred years. When the city elected officials at-large, or across the city, power was concentrated among affluent white voters and not the Black and Brown populations of the city. When the Board switched to a district system, many felt that Waterbury Mayor Neil O’Leary neutralized this new system by exerting control over the board, ensuring everything went through him. The post continues that Mayor Perenerwski, a longtime Board of Aldermen member, continued the system. The United Democrats of Waterbury wants to bring power to the districts.

A slate of candidates led by Rafael Roman, who has recruited nine candidates for the Board of Aldermen and three for the Board of Education, will face off against the endorsed slate from the DTC.

Democratic Primary Races

However, it isn’t exactly a simple case of one side vs the other.

Some candidates are endorsed both both the DTC and United Democrats of Waterbury. This includes Nelson Roman, who is running in the 5th district. He was endorsed by incumbent Geraldo Reyes Jr., who has an independent streak as an alderman, meaning he is both a challenger and an endorsed member. Alderwoman Sanra McCarthy, the president pro tempore of the board of Aldermen, is also cross-endorsed by United Democrats of Waterbury

Ken Curran, the city chairman of the Democratic Party, is the endorsed DTC candidate along with Michael Rinaldi in District 1. They are facing a challenge from United Democrats Brenda Liz Cotto Figueroa and Denise Martinez.

The endorsed slate by the DTC includes

District 2: Belina Weaver, Ian Blake

District 3: Sean Mosley, John Drewery

District 4: Michael DiGiovancarlo, Jeffrey Hunter Sr.

Board of Education: LaToya Ireland, Kay Munoz, and Margaret Heyward

It’ll be interesting to see how the slates end up at the end from two different factions.

Offices Elected in Other Towns

This article should act as a reminder to everyone to look at other offices on the ballot that aren’t the mayor or town council races. In some towns, this is fairly simple.

In West Hartford, the only offices on the ballot typically are the Board of Education, Town Council, and Town Clerk.

Other towns, however, have a lot more to vote on. Some towns have ballot questions depending on the year. The Town of Brookfield in 2023 had the typical expected offices like First Selectman, Selectman, Board of Education, and Town Clerk. However, voters vote on other offices, including Town Treasurer, Board of Finance, Board of Assessment, Planning Commission, Zoning Commission, Zoning Board of Appeals, and four ballot questions.

The town of Orange in 2023 had to vote for Constables, and Amity Regional Board of Education, the Board of Education, Tax Collector, and more. The Town of Glastonbury elects a Board of Fire Commissioners. In 2021, the Town of Plainfield had 7 ballot questions and a two-page ballot for voters to vote on.

Though for many of these offices, most people who run win a seat, as the exact number of candidates running for the needed positions is. Some races hidden in the ballot can be competitive and potentially affect certain positions in your town that you didn’t know were so important.

It’s important to understand how these committees and boards work so one can better understand how the town and its services are run.

I highly recommend using the Secretary of State website prior to the primaries and the general election to get a good look at your ballot before you head to the voting booth, so you are fully aware of all the offices that are on the ballot.

Thanks for Reading!

Luke Bronin in his campaign video: Source: Twitter

It’s Happening!

Luke Bronin, the former mayor of Hartford, released a campaign video Tuesday morning announcing a primary challenge to 14-term incumbent John Larson.

Overview

On Monday, I dropped an article discussing the prospects of multiple challengers to Congressman John Larson. I discussed the potential candidacies of Luke Bronin and State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest, who could potentially join a crowded field with Hartford Board of Ed Member Ruth Fortune and Southington Town Councilor Jack Perry.

Now, Bronin has officially thrown his hat in the ring. He is currently Larson’s strongest challenger and will make Larson work for a potential 15th term in Congress.

Larson and Bronin

Larson was reportedly shocked when Bronin asked him to consider retirement. He said, “I thought he was kidding”. When Larson said he was going to run, Bronin told him he was going to run against him.

Larson told a dig at Bronin, offering a “new voice”. He said “You know, it takes work. It takes effort. It takes a plan. We’ve got them, and we’re going to deliver on it,” Larson said. “When you run for public office, it’s about what you’ve been able to deliver, what you’re currently working on today, and what your vision is for the future. What was Mr. Bronin’s?”

Bronin later remarked that he didn’t feel that Larson has the sense of urgency necessary. Larson told reporters how they don’t cover social security enough and the importance of the issue (and his bill on it), saying if Democrats win the House in 2026, he’ll regain his chairmanship.

However, he was unable to win passage when Democrats had unified control in 2021 and 2009, and Democrats won’t have control in 2026. Larson insisted that social security reforms were still possibly, and said next week, a bill will be dropped that addresses it, “first time a leader in the House of Representatives in more than 50 years has been out in front.”. He also hinted that Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jefferies will come to Connecticut on his behalf.

The dam is broken in a state where ambitious politicians have long deferred to the state’s top officials, waiting for an open seat or opportunity. Larson was waltzing his way to another term, waiting to announce a campaign after local elections in November, as he only needs minimal fundraising in this safe Harris 61-38 district. However, these challenges have changed everything, and Larson announced a campaign kickoff next month, but told everyone he will be running again, and that he’s the best for the job.

Personal Background

Luke Bronin grew up in the wealthy communities of Rye, NY, and Greenwich, CT. The son of a doctor and a former teacher. Bronin grew up attending the prestigious Phillips Exeter Academy in New Hampshire. He lated attended recieved his undergraduate degree and law degree from Yale University. He was also a Rhodes Scholar.

Bronin has had many jobs before he became mayor.

He worked as the chief of staff for the president and property casualty operations at the Hartford Financial Services Group. Bronin worked at the US Department of the Treasury during the Obama administration. He was the Deputy Assistant Secretary for terrorist financing and financial crimes. His work involved working on the government’s efforts against regimes in Syria and Iran, blocking money from terrorist groups.

He served in the US Navy Reserve during a deployment in Afghanistan for six months, where he was part of an anti-corruption task force.

Just before his mayoral campaign, he worked as part of then-Gov. Dannell Malloy’s general counsel. He was also a partner in the law firm Hinckley Allen.

Hartford Mayoral Race in 2015

Bronin moved to Hartford in 2006 when his former wife, Sara, got a job the University of Connecticut School of Law. He left in 2009, for work in Washington, D.C, and in Afghanistan. He returned to the city in 2013.

Bronin challenged incumbent Mayor Pedro Seggara in 2015. The city of Hartford has faced many issues over the previous years. In 2010, Mayor Eddie Perez resigned after a conviction on corruption charges. Perez was known as exerting a huge control over the city.

Interestingly, Seggara was known as the opposite. Though he won the 2011 mayoral race, Seggara received a poor reputation as an executive and had poor relations with many of the state’s leaders. He was also seen as a weaker leader.

Seggara used tactics that will likely be used against Bronin in his congressional campaign, such as attacking his privileged upbringing, his background, and the fact that he was an outsider with weak ties to the city. Though it did not work, some of the attacks stuck with Bronin throughout his tenure.

In September of 2015, as expected, Bronin emerged victorious and won the Mayoral Race 55-45 over Seggara.

Mayoral Tenure

Dunkin Park in 2023. A huge economic benefit and developmental liability faced by Hartford: Source: Hartford Courant

Bronin faced immediate issues in a city that faced with some of the poorest precincts in the country. The city’s challenges were endless and difficult to contend with.

Bronin’s biggest accomplishment was likely leading the city out of the verge of bankruptcy by winning passage of state-financed bailout in 2017. He was also able to get business leaders and surrounding suburban communities on his side of the issue, agreeing to help out the city.

Ned Lamont praised Bronin’s tenure in 2022 as he announced he was stepping down. Lamont praised Bronin on helping many business stay in the area, and his better relationships with officals allowed Bronin to secure funding for the city’s infrastructure.

The city has also had many recent development areas for business and new housing. An aggressive push for mixed-income housing occurred. Through this, many communitiy intitvatives have taken place to help discconected youth. Bronin also received praise for his COVID-19 response and his style in informing city residents of the crisis,

Some debate if Bronin really solved the fiscal crisis or just convinced the state to pay for it. There was a debate from many people in surrounding areas whether they had to pay for Hartford’s mishandling of finances prior to Bronin’s tenure. Nevertheless, he’s been given credit for the city’s improved financial situation.

Bronin has also faced criticism for labor relations, due to his initial proposed concessions with city unions. In addition, gun violence and crime remained a large issue through his tenure with a spike occuring soon after the start of the pandemic. The city also faced isues from the developers of the Hartford Yard Goats stadium, and how the pandemic affected office buildings downtown.

Some critics also point to Bronin’s push for market race housing which was not seen as effective. Some felt he should have focused more against landlords.

Strengths of Candidacy

• Profile: Bronin has an appealing profile as a young elected official with a lot of experience. He served in the Treasury Department, had a tour in Afghanistan, and was a Rhodes Scholar. This could allow voters to be comforted by someone who is new, yet very experienced.
• Generational Change: Bronin is more than 30 years younger than Larson. Local voters will be happy to see an experienced candidate who is young and energetic. Bronin says an important reason on primarying Larson is the importance of communication through social media and other means. He says good policy does not get you as far in this environment. I believe this is a good argument to start with. But he has to put out content and positions that prove this point. Bronin, however, is ambitious and has been his entire career, so his energy to the race can help him.
• Connections: Bronin is a state staple who is well-known for being close with elected officials across the state in the district. Some say that he is good at connecting with others. Others note that he has kept up good relations with many leaders in the district, attending events, and keeping up connections. This can help him, as many other leaders in the district will endorse Larson. He can possibly get some endorsements from Hartford and the surrounding areas.
• Name ID and Fundraising: Looking at Bronin’s other opponents. Ruth Fortune and Jack Perry face massive issues in their name ID. No one knows who they are. Bronin’s leadership of the capital city and bid for governor in 2018 make him much more well-known to voters of the local area. Even if State Rep. Gilchrest jumps in, Bronin starts out ahead on a name ID level. For Democratic primary voters, this will help him more. In addition, during his 2015 mayoral campaign, Bronin prepared early and raised more than $800,000 against the incumbent, so his fundraising chops will come in handy for this race.
• First Significant Challenger: Though Larson has other challengers, Bronin is much more well-known than the others. This allows him an early start on fundraising and gives him the mantra of Larson’s main challenger. If someone else jumps in, they would have to compete with the others’ fundraising, with pressure for one of them to drop out to consolidate the Anti-Larson vote.

Weaknessess

• Profile: This can go both ways. Bronin will need to contend with his affluent upbringing and work to carefully make a profile to make residents believe he can understand their issues. Bronin shielded these attacks in 2015 by noting the difficult upbringing faced by his parents and family, and how they worked hard to give him a better life. How can he contend this in 2025, which will likely be similar, but involve a different angle. Bronin, a white-male guy in his 40s, needs to explain to a party of base voters that he can understand the plight of racial minorities in a district with a growing minority population. In addition, Bronin will need to be careful about fundraising, ensuring he gets it from small donors and not corporations or rich donors. Finally, Bronin will need to be careful to not hold an establishment reputation. Though that sentiment decrease with his challenge in the first place, people want someone new, not someone of the past. Bronin will need to prove that he is different than the current Democrats of Washington.
• Big-City Mayor: Being a mayor of a big city as its pros and cons. Facing systemic problems faced by the poorest of state residents is difficult. The city’s crime rates were high. Bronin will have to defend his mayoral tenure, faced by questions about the city’s schools and crime. A city that has faced scrutiny for it. In addition, many public comments about mistakes and governing abilities are likely due to the size of the city. Can Bronin said he made the city better than it was when he left during his eight-year tenure. If he struggles with this answer, people will question why they should make him a congressman.
• Ambition: Political opportunism is common in politics. But how people view is all dependent on the candidate. It’s no secret that Bronin wants to run for governor instead. Will voters not feel like he actually wants to be their congressman over higher aspirations? We won’t know this until the campaign kicks off in earnest.
• 5-Way Race: If this race were between Bronin and Larson, it could be much closer. If Gilchrest jumps into the race, and due to her more progressive reputation in the legislature, is able to take that mantle from Bronin as the change that is needed. She will dominate fundraising nationally over him. Bronin will get caught between them. However, a multi-way race will likely benefit Larson, who can win with a plurality of the vote.

Conclusion

This is a very different environment from when Bronin won his 2015 Democratic primary for mayor. He had the city’s establishment and leaders behind him. He will likely not enjoy that privilege this time. CT Mirror’s Mark Paznikos reports that since Larson’s issues earlier in the year, and the threat of challenges, he’s looks as energetic as ever running around the district.

Larson is a staple in the district. Explaining to voters why they should toss out an incumbent for age reasons only isn’t enough if Larson can prove he’s more effective.

Larson will sweep endorsements of the state’s federal delegation, likely. Local endorsements may vary, as Bronin definitely can get some endorsements from the city. Bronin has a good chance to make this a competitive race, but he needs to clearly define himself as more than a generational change.

Though this is a good start, he needs to start taking positions and try new ideas that either Larson hasn’t talked about, or that his opponents haven’t seized on. Whether it’s a national policy or a local policy, Using his current profile to make himself the favorite of the people willing to vote for change will be necessary.

Most importantly, he needs to do this before (and if) Gilchrest jumps into the race, and seize on this energy. Since Gilchrest has more reputation as a progressive, if that’s the direction he chooses, he needs to affirm if before he gets caught in the middle between her and Larson. If Gilchrest doesn’t jump in, he still needs to build a profile that can appeal to a wide range of residents.

He has a chance to change the dynamics of this district. What I’m sure of he will give Larson a good race. How far can he go?

We have to wait to see how his campaign takes off and the positions he takes. Importantly, how his opponents and Larson will navigate this new field.

Thanks for Reading!

Southington Council Member and Small Business Owner Jack Perry with his family. Source: Jack Perry for Congress

Overview

The 1st Congressional District has something brewing that may lead to an outcome that hasn’t happened since the state started conducting formal primaries over five decades ago. There might be a primary challenger on the ballot against an Incumbent Democratic member of the House.

John Larson, a 14-term incumbent in the 1st congressional district, is a staple in his district. He has not faced a single challenger since his narrow primary win in the open seat against then Secretary of State Miles Rapoport in 1998.

He not only has two challengers running against him currently, Hartford Board of Education member Ruth Fortune, and Southington Town Council Member Jack Perry. But two even more prominent names, former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, and State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest, have publicly discussed the possibility of challenging Larson. If either takes the plunge, we might have the most significant primary challenge against an incumbent in the state since Senator Joe Lieberman in 2006.

A Brief Political Background on John Larson

John Larson has been a staple in the 1st District for over three decades. He grew up in public housing with seven brothers and sisters in East Hartford.

After graduating from East Hartford High School and Central Connecticut State University (CCSU). Larson worked as a high school history teacher and co-owned an insurance agency before entering politics.

He started his career on the East Hartford Board of Education in 1977. He rose quickly to the East Hartford Town Council, and by 1982, he was elected to the Connecticut State Senate in the 3rd District. By 1987, he was picked by his peers as President Pro Tempore of the State Senate.

Larson did not run for reelection and lost the 1994 Democratic nomination for Governor to Bill Curry. Larson entered private business but ensured to keep up his political connections. He was able to leverage these connections for the 1st Congressional seat in 1998. The seat was open since Democratic Incumbent Barbara Kennelly decided to run for governor.

He narrowly defeated Secretary of State Miles Rapoport in the primary by a narrow 46-42 margin.

Larson in Congress

Interestingly, Larson was the moderate challenger in his primary race against the more progressive Miles Rapoport in their 1998 primary. However, during his tenure in Congress, Larson has garnered a progressive record. Though his positions in leadership make him somewhat loyal to establishment-based leadership. On Voteview, Larson ranks nearly in the dead middle of his Democratic house colleagues on the Left-Right spectrum, firmly between the moderates and progressives.

John Larson is currently a member of the influential House Ways and Means Committee. He is also included on the Subcommittees on Trade and Social Security. Larson’s main cause in Congress has been focused on social security. Larson has also had prominent leadership positions during his tenure. He was the Vice Chair of the House Democratic Caucus from 2006 to 2009, and was later picked as the chair of the House Democratic Caucus from 2009 to 2013.

Larson has played a large role in authoring legislation that allowed for Medicare to negotiate for lower drug prices for consumers. A prominent provision that was signed into law by President Biden in 2022. Larson, also due to his leadership position, was very involved in passing the Affordable Care Act during the Obama Administration. He also worked with the Late Rep. John Lewis on the For the Peoples Act, and was an original cosponsor of the similar John Lewis Voting Rights Amendment.

Larson Recently

This is something Larson has highlighted in his recent press statements (and by his family members). Larson has discussed his seniority, strength on social security, and how this allows him to have more influence in bringing back funding into the district. Seniority (and bringing funding to the district) has been a long-standing way to encourage primary voters to vote for long-term incumbents. However, in this anti-incumbent environment targeting older lawmakers, it is hard to say how much the salience of seniority arguments works on primary voters after the 2024 elections. An environment where scrutiny over long-term and older incumbents has greatly increased, and seniority lawmakers aren’t seen as much of an asset compared to recent campaigns.

The recent deaths of prominent long-term older Democratic lawmakers, including Rep. Gerry Connolly (VA-11), Rep. Raul Grijalva (AZ-07), and Rep. Sylvester Turner (TX-18) has allowed for the uncomfortable discussion of encouraging the retirement of older lawmakers. Many, however, including Larson, who would turn 80 during his next term, feel that they are capable of being in Congress and that they are the best for the position.

More recently, Larson has had less visual prominence in the Democratic caucus. Larson also attracted unwanted attention for a partial seizure he suffered during a speech in both February and April. His comments in March on Elon Musk garnered positive attention for him. We discussed this in an article two weeks ago. This issue has led many to see Larson as vulnerable.

New Challenger Jack Perry

We discussed Larson’s first challenger in the Hartford Board of Ed. Member and Attorney Ruth Fortune, who filed against Larson during the July 4th weekend.

A new challenger has emerged in the Southington Town Counciler and Small Businessman Jack Perry. Jack Perry has stated “I’m running for Congress because, like so many others, I am fed up with this broken economic system that is rigged against the working and middle class,” he said in a statement. Perry is making this the center of his campaign, featuring the quote on both his campaign kickoff video and on his campaign website.

Perry’s Campaign

Perry didn’t note anything specific about Larson, but talked about needing fresh leadership who will fight against Trump and corporate interests. He also talked about fighting for the person as a working-class person. He also cited his background, experience, and his unique profile for a potential member of Congress. Perry cites this due to his working-class career in the garbage hauling business.

Perry has also gained attention for pledging to spend $500,000 of his own money against Larson. Funds he got from selling his family-owned garage business, HQ Dumpsters and Recycling, though he currently oversees daily operations. He is also suspected of releasing a poll in March, gauging a hypothetical primary, receiving the attention of local state politicos. Perry is not well-known around the state, although he did gain some recognition for running for a State Senate seat in 2020 against Republican incumbent Rob Sampson, who beat Perry 54-46. Notably, Trump performed well in the district.

Due to not being well-known, Perry acknowledges the uphill battle against the incumbent, citing the effort and passion he is willing to put into the campaign. We have to see what issues and events he does to garner more attention.

What is Luke Bronin Planning?

Luke Bronin, the former mayor of Hartford from 2016 until 2024, has spent years preparing for a run for governor. However, with Governor Ned Lamont likely to run for a 3rd term, Bronin is looking elsewhere to continue his political career.

Bronin has a lot of guts. He reportedly has asked Larson to step down and make way for a new generation. Larson told Bronin he is running again, and Bronin has reportedly been seriously contemplating a campaign. Bronin, similar to other challengers, says he respects Larson’s work, but it’s time for the baton to be passed.

I believe Bronin thinks that if he waits to the next open gubernatorial race in 2030, he would have been out of office too long to be seriously considered for the Democratic nomination meaning he is looking at his options.

It is important to note that if he jumps in, this won’t be the first time Bronin has challenged an incumbent in a primary. A background that includes being a Navy veteran, Yale graduate, working in an appointed position at the Treasury Department under Obama, and general counsel for Governor Dannel Malloy’s administration. Bronin challenged Incumbent Hartford Mayor Pedro Segarra in 2015, secured the Democratic Town Committee endorsement, and beat Seggara by ten points.

If he jumps in, we will discuss Bronin’s background in more detail. However, an ambitious politician with experience, good relationships in the district, and the ability to fundraise positions him as a top challenger to Larson if he jumps in. He is also only 46, more than three decades younger than Larson, with experience, something voters in the district might be happy to see in a challenger.

Will Jillian Gilchrest Jump in?

State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest at a conference. Source: Facebook

State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest, the director of Health Professional Outreach at the Connecticut Coalition Against Domestic Violence, is one of the most prominent progressive voices in the state.

Gilchrest, who is also an adjunct professor and was a prominent co-organizer of the Women’s March Connecticut, has also told reporters that she is looking at the race.

Reporters note the lack of downside since so many politicians are looking at the race. Gilchrest, who, like Bronin, came to office from a challenging incumbent. Gilchrest successfully won a primary challenge against 12-term Incumbent State Rep. Andy Fleischmann in the 18th district in 2018. Gilchrest ran on a progressive agenda, focusing on the state’s economic future, new ideas of thinking, and noted that more women needed to be in office.

Gilchrest, who didn’t win the Democratic Town Committee endorsement, petitioned to make the ballot, won an upset 52-48 victory over Fleischman, and has been in office since.

Why Gilchrest is a Prominent Candidate

Gilchrest has been one of the first names frequently mentioned as someone who would very likely run for the 1st district when Larson retires. Gilchrest’s prominence on Women’s issues, maternal health, and education has allowed her a great reputation in the state house. Her previous activism makes her a perfect candidate for progressives.

She told reporters that she is considering running for office. She said that though respect should go to Larson, the number of people getting in has made her want to be part of it. Gilchrest, the co-chair of the assembly’s human services committee, talked about how Democrats are “looking for voices who will be speaking about the issues that impact them and not waiting to feel out how to best say something“. She also noted that leaders who are direct and talk about everyday issues are important.

Gilchrest told the Courant she didn’t have a timeline a few weeks ago, but if she gets in, she will be a very prominent challenger against Larson. She is also only 43, nearly 35 years younger than Larson.

What Will Happen?

Predicting primary elections is difficult, especially a year out before the primary. But here is what I think is likely and what I expect. If I am wrong, then we can look back and have a good laugh!

I think Ruth Fortune will struggle the most out of the four named candidates. She currently has no campaign website and no name ID. She will struggle with funding if more prominent names jump into the race. Under Connecticut’s restrictive ballot system, I don’t think she will make the ballot. She might get some attention, depending on her stances on some issues, but I don’t see her gaining much traction.

Jack Perry is an interesting candidate. A small business owner who is only 35 and has $500,000 is self-funding he is willing to throw against Larson, who, according to the Downballot, has had very meager fundraising for an incumbent in Quarter 2. Larson, who, due to his solid name ID and never having a challenger in the safe Democratic district, has never had to raise much money, but if facing an onslaught of attacks if the race turns negative, he might need to raise more money.

Perry can garner some attention depending on how he takes his campaign. He will need to focus more on the issues and differentiating himself from Larson. Currently, his website has no issues listed. With no likely policy differences, the question is a generational argument enough to take out Larson? I’m skeptical, but things can change throughout the campaign.

Why Money Might Not Guarantee Ballot Access

If Bronin and Gilchrest both don’t jump in, I think Perry will be Larson’s most prominent challenger, but getting on the ballot isn’t easy, even with significant self-funding. If Bronin and Gilchrest do jump in, he might struggle to garner traction and make the ballot.

Perry has to be reminded by 2022. When Larson had a challenger in former staffer and substitute Teacher Muad Hrezi, who raised a solid $500,000 during his primary campaign. Hrezi, however, did not make the ballot due to a poor showing at the Convention and struggling to get signatures in a tough summer primary when COVID made garnering signatures more difficult than usual. However, there was 0 momentum for Larson to face any challenger at that time; state delegates and most primary voters weren’t interested as Hrezi struggled to garner attention.

Despite his self-funding, it might not be enough to challenge Larson considerably without gaining traction otherwise. Hrezi also attempted a generational argument and couldn’t make the ballot or get 15% of the delegates. Of course, there is more momentum for generational change, but Perry will need to convince voters that he is the change.

Here’s Where The Race Becomes Unpredictable

Gilchrest or Bronin, if either enters the race, will both seriously change the calculus of the race. Bronin has many connections across the state and a profile that many would find attractive. Gilchrest, who hails from the voter-rich neighboring suburb of West Hartford, which has the most voters in the district (despite being half of the population of Hartford), is popular and will do well in the town.

Most importantly, both can make the ballot either through convention delegates (due to local prominence) or through the signature requirement of the ballot if they fundraise well.

I would be surprised if both Bronin and Gilchrest entered, as they would be fighting for a similar consistuency, leading to Larson potentially winning the primary in a plurality. It is, however, plausible, and if they both enter, I assume Gilchrest would have a better chance of taking the progressive mantle over Bronin.

Also, though it attracted attention and made Larson appear vulnerable, I’m not sure if a purely age argument will be enough by the summer of 2026. Larson has served the district well, bringing billions of dollars of funding, and will be the chairman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee if Democrats retake the majority next year.

Plausible Scenarios

If Lamont decides not to seek a third term, however, I think Bronin would clearly want to run for governor. Gilchrest, who is still serving in the legislature, would likely have to give up her seat for a risky primary challenge. Bronin is not currently in an elected position, so if he goes for it, Gilchrest might wait to make a decision.

In addition, if the pressure continues and Larson decides to retire, the calculus will change, and I would expect not only both members to enter the primary, but also other members of the legislature and local office to enter for a seat that hasn’t had an open primary in nearly thirty years. In that scenario, I expect a super chaotic race.

Bronin and Gilchrest are some of the most prominent politicians to consider primarying an Incumbent House Member in the country, meaning they could both attract national attention. This can help with fundraising if they go through with it.

They can also increase their prominence if it doesn’t work, as I highly doubt it would end either of their political careers, and might give them other opportunities. However, whenever one challenges an incumbent, it can make relationships with other local members difficult, especially if many favor Larson, which Gilchrest might contemplate more due to being a member of the legislature.

Overall

It’s important to note that Larson is a formidable opponent with decades of experience and relationships across the district. He doesn’t have any specific issue for an opponent to seize on, other than his age.

However, times have changed. Seniority isn’t seen as a positive by some of the Democratic party electorate. An electorate that demands leaders to fight more and be visible on issues on social media.

If Bronin and Gilchrest don’t jump in, I think Larson is super safe in his seat. If Bronin or Gilchrest takes the plunge, I don’t think we can ignore the prospect of a good, competitive race.

It will be interesting to see what happens. I will keep updated on the race and provide updates as needed. I think no matter what, it’ll be an interesting race that everyone should pay attention to.

Thanks for Reading!