State Senator Ryan Fazio (R-Greenwich). Source: CT Senate Republicans

Overview

State Senator Ryan Fazio (R-Greenwich) launched an exploratory committee for governor last Friday. The field of Republican field has many names, but no one seems to have a firm grasp on the nomination.

Fazio, who won his second full term in November, has to decide in the next few months if he wants to take on the difficult task of running for Governor. A serious campaign would involve strategic considerations and an intense amount of fundraising, especially if Fazio has to run against the well-funded Gov. Lamont. Fazio would also have to leave his Republican State Senate seat, which would be vulnerable to a Democratic flip in 2026, further pushing Republicans into a deep minority in the State Legislature.

Background

Born in Connecticut and grew up attending the Greenwich Public Schools. Fazio went to Northwestern University, where he studied economics, graduating in 2012.

Fazio spent most of his career working in commodity markets, specializing in renewable energy. This market included the movement of millions of tons of agricultural and energy goods around the world.

He has spent time volunteering in inner-city charter schools. Currently, he volunteers for the organizations Greenwich United Way and Meals on Wheels

Currently, Fazio is the Vice President of Growth Equity Firm. The firm invests in medium-sized businesses and advises their management to help them grow.

Political History

Fazio’s first elected office was as a member of the Greenwich Representative Town Meeting in 2019. As one of the members of the 230-member legislative body of Greenwich, Fazio served on the finance committee.

In 2020, Fazio attempted his first major run for office against Democratic Incumbent State Senator Alex Kasser. Kasser represented the 36th State Senate District. A district Kasser won in the 2018 blue wave against the Republican incumbent, L Scott Frantz, in an upset 50-49.

Fazio narrowly lost the seat 49-51, despite Biden carrying the district by nearly 20 points during the presidential election.

The 36th State Senate Seat, part of Connecticut’s Gold Coast, was long a Republican stronghold on the federal level until the mid-2010s. The seat had been in Republican hands from 1930 till Kasser’s win in 2018. The district took a massive shift to the left in 2016, voting for Mitt Romney by 10 points (54-44), to voting for Hillary Clinton by 18 points (57-39). However, Republicans have still done well in local and legislative elections in recent years.

Fazio, though, didn’t have to wait long for another chance. Kasser resigned from office in June 2021, leading to a summer special election. Fazio ran against Democrat Alexis Gevanter, and he prevailed 50-48.

Now an incumbent, Fazio still had a tough race in 2022, due to the Democratic lean of the district at the federal level. However, he came out the narrowest of wins against Democrat Trevor Crow, winning a 50.1-49.9 squeaker.

2022 36th State Senate Seat Election. Fazio narrowly held on by 89 votes. Source: CT Secretary of State Website

2024 Election

Democrats in Connecticut had their eyes set on taking out Fazio during the 2024 Presidential Election. Democrats heavily recruited and found a strong candidate in former Deputy Chief of Staff to Gov. Lamont, Nick Simmons.

Simmons boosted a great resume, including a bachelor’s from Yale, a Master’s in Public Policy from Harvard Kennedy School, and an MBA from Harvard. Simmons worked a short stint at the UBS Investment Bank before becoming a 7th-grade math teacher in Harlem, NY. Soon, Simmons was acting principal of the school at age 26, one of the youngest in New York. After a stint in the Biden administration as a senior advisor and in Lamont’s governor’s office, he gave Fazio a tough fight ahead of him.

Though Fazio proved he could win this district despite difficult headwinds, he still had to face heavy spending. Simmons not only had the resume but was able to fundraise well due to heavy political backing from his sister, Mayor of Stamford Caroline Simmons. This led to Fazio facing not only Simmons’s 500k fundraising but also nearly $400k in outside spending.

Simmons, knowing the blue leanings of the district, tried to associate Fazio with Trump, citing Fazio’s votes on guns, abortions, and reproductive healthcare on the campaign trail. Simmons campaigned as moderate, aligning himself with Gov. Lamont. Fazio, though conservative, was continually able to appeal to moderates, and he heavily avoided discussing Trump on the campaign trail.

Election day came, and Fazio emerged victorious over Simmons in a surprise 52-48 victory. This was despite the fact that Kamala Harris won the district by over 16 points. Fazio credited his win to a bipartisan record. Simmons noted he lost because voters were much more drawn to Fazio, and his incumbency advantage likely assisted him. Also, on many issues, Fazio and Simmons had similar positions, such as energy policy and lowering costs on electricity and gas for residents.

Who Is Running for the Nomination Currently

After winning multiple tough elections and holding Greenwich’s affinity for downballot Republicans, Fazio has a good base to start fundraising for a prospective campaign.

All the way back in March, I wrote an article about the Republican Primary, which included Westport First Selectwoman Jen Tooker, who was the first person to enter the race. Surprisingly, after nearly five months, not much has changed. Tooker is the only one still officially in the race, and New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart has continued to raise money in her exploratory committee.

Tooker, Stewart, and Fazio seem to be the major candidates for the Republican nomination. Some minor candidates have filed, including perennial candidate Peter Lumaj, but I don’t expect much from him.

All three major candidates have proven the ability to win on blue turf. Tooker and Stewart have won the top positions in their towns, both of which Kamala Harris won by over 20 points. The ability to win on Democratic turf is appealing for a general election in a state where Democrats have done well. However, all three candidates have to balance out their viewpoints to win a closed Republican primary.

On the fundraising side, Stewart has the most money on hand, at about $222,000. Tooker only has $50,000, with even Lumaj close behind at $46,000.

No one seems to be running away with the nomination, so Fazio can easily make up ground.

Strengths

Fazio’s strengths are his clear ability to win over Democratic voters, in addition to moderates.

Most importantly, Fazio has been able to maintain the backing of Trump’s MAGA wing of the party as well as pro-business Republicans and moderates. This is important in Greenwich, where the conservative faction of the party has taken over the local GOP committee, taking out anyone who wasn’t deemed loyal to the Republican cause. Fazio said he sees himself as uniting Republicans on all sides.

Fazio is also respected on both sides of the aisle, and many of his fellow legislators have been hoping for him to take charge. A member of both the Energy & Technology Committee and the Finance, Revenue, & Bonding Committee, he has many backers who believe he can give Lamont and Democrats a competitive race. Some believe he could actually win. State Senator Rob Sampson (R-Wolcott) was thinking of entering the race, but told CTInsider Reporter Dan Haar that he was working to persuade Fazio to run. He says that Fazio’s ability to talk policy and communicate would prove very beneficial. If he gets the backing of many of the Republican legislative members, which seems likely, it’ll help him in a race.

Fazio, who is only 35, if facing Lamont, would be able to sufficiently show a generational change and contrast from Lamont, who will be running for a 3rd term at the age of 72, meaning some voters might be feeling fatigued from Lamont’s candidacy.

Fazio, however, has created a moderate reputation by being able to avoid discussing Trump and where he aligns with the president. Though this was allowed by many MAGA faithful in a competitive race, Fazio, like many of his Republican opponents, will need to figure out how to preserve their moderate reputation while sufficiently proving their loyalty to Trump voters who tend to dominate the state’s closed Republican primary.

Troubles for Republican-Endorsed Candidates

The GOP has had a lot of trouble getting its endorsed candidates through the primary the last couple of years. House Minority Leader Thelmis Klarides lost to Trump-endorsed Businesswoman Leora Levy in 2022, despite having the GOP endorsement, as the small Republican primary electorate preferred Trump’s choice, despite Klarides being a way better general election challenger.

In 2024, the Republican endorsed Beacon Falls Selectman Gerry Smith lost the Republican primary to businessman Matthew Corey, who had enough name ID from his previous Senate run in 2018 (and other runs for office), to win the super low-turnout primary. Corey won’t be going anywhere with Republican voters as he is currently running for Lieutenant Governor. Connecticut is one of a handful of states, where the Lieutenant Governor runs a separate primary from the governor, but is elected on one ticket in the general election, akin to a “shotgun wedding”. We will discuss this more as we get closer to next year.

Convincing the electorate is everything, and though Fazio might be able to attract voters based on stances about taxes and electric bills, he needs to sufficiently prove the base that he is loyal, and that is easier said than done. He will also need to convince voters to move on from Lamont, who, despite his primary challenge, is still popular with a majority of Democrats in the state.

Fazio also isn’t known as a spectacular fundraiser (though sufficient), as he will need to generate a lot of funds for a statewide run. Being in elected office for 4 years, he is not well-known to voters and will have to do a lot of work to sufficiently increase his name ID for a run.

Fazio would also be leaving his seat in a very blue area during a midterm where Republicans hold all three pillars of national government, leaving his party to defend the seat or else face a smaller Republican minority in the legislature.

Overview

The Republican Primary is a fully open race, and no candidate is leading by enough to warrant anyone from dropping out. The 2018 Republican Primary was so crowded, victor Bob Stefanowski won the primary with under 30% of the vote. This race could be similar, though we will see if Republicans organize more and get behind one candidate, or allow a free-for-all for what is typically a late summer primary.

Fazio is definitely a good candidate for Republicans, someone who is young and has the proven ability to win over Democrats and moderates. He, most importantly, has been on the good side of the MAGA part of the base in Greenwich, and shows his ability to join some of the party’s factions together.

However, he’ll need to contend with low name ID, a lot of campaign fundraising, and how to sufficiently mention Trump to win the primary but maintain enough moderate credentials in what is looking like a blue Democratic year election. He can’t avoid the president in a primary of the party’s faithful.

How Fazio will contend with this, or how Republicans will organize this effort, we will have to wait and see!

Thanks for Reading!

Manchester Mayor Jay Moran. Source: CT Post

Overview

Since our last edition in February, there have been many retirements and announcements of runs for candidates across the state. With 169 municipalities to cover, we can’t cover everything, but I will try my best to get some notable ones out of the way.

Next week, from July 15th to July 22nd, town committees, caucuses, and conventions will announce endorsements for municipal offices at their respective events for each party. We will learn more about endorsed candidates that are on the ballot, and over the following weeks, we will learn more about who will try to petition for the primary ballot.

The petition deadline in the state is pretty short, as petition must be submitted to the registrar by August 6th. The primary is scheduled for September 9th, with early voting days from the 5th to 7th. Only if the candidates are opposed will that town have a primary. So it will depend on the town and position.

Let’s get to some of the mayoral/selectman/selectwoman developments of the last couple of months.

Note to readers: if there is no recent developments in certain towns on challengers, who haven’t been heard from for a while. We will wait till the following weeks for official primary challengers, and go from there. In addition, many races have had opponents in for a few months, we not much news since than, so we will wait for the next few weeks to see if they continue their campaigns past the convention. At the moment we will cover the largest cities/towns for now. But I will try to cover others in the next few weeks.

Norwalk

In March, after 12 years in office, Norwalk Mayor Harry Rilling announced he would not seek reelection in November. The state’s 6th largest town has many people geared up for the open race.

Thanks to recent publications by Norwalk’s local publication Nancy on Norwalk , we have good detailed information about candidates gearing up to be the next mayor.

In the Democratic side, Common Council Members Barbara Smyth and Darlene Young are facing off against one another. Both have a lot of experience in city government.

Smyth has been a member of the common council for 8 years, elected president twice. Her priorities includes investing in public education, growing city as a responsible rate, and improving infrastructure and flooding issues.

Young has worked in the community under four different administrations, a member of the common council, elected president once. She is a founding member of Norwalk’s Community Health System. Her top pritories as mayor are addressing affordability, resolving budget process challenges, strength blught enforcement, and diversifying our housing options.

On the Republican side, Businessowner Vinny Scicchitano is the only person declared for the nomination. He has owned and operated a small business for over 40 years. His priorities include fiscal responsibility, educational excellence, and improving traffic and infrastructure.

Unaffilated candidate, Erik Vitaglione and Orion Party member Scott Merrell are also candidates for mayor, but they have to get on the ballot, and neither responded to the questionnaires from the publication.

Greenwich

First Selectman Fred Camillo announced on Tuesday that he will announce his re-election bid for a 4th term on Monday the 14th.

Camillo in his announcement, noted his good relationship with top legislators including State Sen. Bob Duff and State Rep Jason Rojas. He also noted the city’s gains in affordable housing stock, noting the importance of debate.

Hamden

Despite her announcement of seeking re-election earlier this year, two-term incumbent mayor Lauren Garrett announced on Monday she would not seek re-election to a third term citing a desire to be with family and friends in addition to mental health.

Garrett leaves offices with accomplishments ranging from stabilizing the town’s finances by securing more than $50 million in grants for community projects. She has faced challenges recently concluding in the town council overriding her veto of the town’s budget and some residents complaining about financial transparency.

Garrett’s exit means there are multiple candidates now vying for the Democratic nomination, the largest in at least 35 years. The large field is likely due to frustration over expected property tax hikes, in addition to appeal of a four-year term, which is longer than the previous two year term, giving candidates more time to carry out their agendas.

Democrats competing for the nomination include Legislative Council President Dominique Baez, Combat Veteran and Board of Ed member Walter Mortion, Businesswoman Jameka Morrison-Jefferies, Clean-Transportation Advocate Peter Cyr, Vet and Registrar of Voters Lushonda Howard.

In this open race, in a liberal city, hard to say who is favored here. Though I would think Legislative Council President Dominqiue Baez is favored here for the endorsement next week, she has many opponents who can all make the ballot, so hard to say what can happen. The winner of the primary will likely win the race in a town Kamala Harris carried 73-25 in November.

On the Republican side, 24-year-old, political newcomer paralegal Jonathan Katz has been running since last month, and seems to have the nomination to himself.

Manchester

Incumbent Mayor Jay Moran announced he would seek re-election as mayor. He has been mayor for over a decade, but Manchester started electing their mayor directly in 2023.

Though unopposed in 2023, Moran will have a republican opponent this time around. Manchester Republicans announced that Board of Directors Member Zachary Reichelt will oppose Moran. They expect he’ll get the nomination next week.

West Haven

West Haven Mayor Dorinda Borer. Source: CT Examiner

Incumbent Mayor Dorinda Borer announced she would seek re-election for a second term early last month.

The city was greatly mismanaged in previous years including stolen pandemic relief funds, behind on audits, and having no bond rating for the city. Former State Rep. Michael DiMassa was also arrested for stealing COVID relief funds from the city.

Borer has been credited by the town’s Democratic chair for restoring the city’s finances and massively improving transparency.

Stratford, East Hartford, Trumbull

Incumbent Republican mayor Laura Hoydick announced she would run for a third four-year term early last month in Stratford.

Incumbent Democratic Middletown mayor Connor Martin announced he would run for a second term in mid-June. He has noted in making investments to help families and improve quality of life. The Republican Town Committee said they would announce a candidate to oppose Martin during its caucus on July 17th

Incumbent Democratic First Selectwoman Vicki Tesoro announced last month she would run for re-election.

Middletown

In Late May, Demoratic Incumbent mayor Ben Florsheim make the surprise announcement that he would resign office and will leave his position as mayor on June 16th. Florsheim was in office since 2019.

Common Council President Eugene Nocera will be Acting Mayor until the special election is completed on the same day as the city’s municipal election.

Acting Mayor Nocera will run for the Democratic nomination. He seems to be the only one on the Democratic side. He is a former two-term Board of Education member and an educator who worked for nearly 40 years in the school district.

Four members of the town’s Republican party are vying for the committee’s mayoral nomination. Former Mayor and councilmen Sebastian Guiliano, Council Minority Leader Linda Salafia, Greater Middletown Military Museum president Ken McClellan, and Business Manager Konrad Lenart. It is unknown if any of them would continue to the primary ballot if they don’t receive the nomination.

Torrington

Republican incumbent mayor Elinor Carborne announced in April she would not run for re-election for a fourth term. She cited her age (68) noting the importance of passing the torch to a new generation.

Both Democrats and Republicans have chosen a candidate to run in the general election. The Torrington Democratic Town Committee are behind City Council member Stephen Ivain. Republicans are behind fellow City Council member Molly Spino.

Ivain lost his first attempt at the mayoral race when he lost to Carborne in 2021. He cites increased costs of living and the “challenging moment” as reasons to run again. He also wants to lead with economic development and attack the rising taxes.

Molly Spino, a marine veteran and paralegal, cites her experience and the importance of building relationships across the city to take the office of Mayor.

Spino is favored in the city where Trump won 56-42 in November.

Conclusion

There are many other cities to cover, and much drama is occurring across the state across the ballot. We will be sure to cover more races, especially of smaller towns in future editions. They are some open-seat in smaller towns and cities we want to highlight, as well as some competitive races. We will definitely provide updates next week following town conventions and caucus, and look towards the primaries in September. Thanks for reading!