Southington Council Member and Small Business Owner Jack Perry with his family. Source: Jack Perry for Congress

Overview

The 1st Congressional District has something brewing that may lead to an outcome that hasn’t happened since the state started conducting formal primaries over five decades ago. There might be a primary challenger on the ballot against an Incumbent Democratic member of the House.

John Larson, a 14-term incumbent in the 1st congressional district, is a staple in his district. He has not faced a single challenger since his narrow primary win in the open seat against then Secretary of State Miles Rapoport in 1998.

He not only has two challengers running against him currently, Hartford Board of Education member Ruth Fortune, and Southington Town Council Member Jack Perry. But two even more prominent names, former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, and State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest, have publicly discussed the possibility of challenging Larson. If either takes the plunge, we might have the most significant primary challenge against an incumbent in the state since Senator Joe Lieberman in 2006.

A Brief Political Background on John Larson

John Larson has been a staple in the 1st District for over three decades. He grew up in public housing with seven brothers and sisters in East Hartford.

After graduating from East Hartford High School and Central Connecticut State University (CCSU). Larson worked as a high school history teacher and co-owned an insurance agency before entering politics.

He started his career on the East Hartford Board of Education in 1977. He rose quickly to the East Hartford Town Council, and by 1982, he was elected to the Connecticut State Senate in the 3rd District. By 1987, he was picked by his peers as President Pro Tempore of the State Senate.

Larson did not run for reelection and lost the 1994 Democratic nomination for Governor to Bill Curry. Larson entered private business but ensured to keep up his political connections. He was able to leverage these connections for the 1st Congressional seat in 1998. The seat was open since Democratic Incumbent Barbara Kennelly decided to run for governor.

He narrowly defeated Secretary of State Miles Rapoport in the primary by a narrow 46-42 margin.

Larson in Congress

Interestingly, Larson was the moderate challenger in his primary race against the more progressive Miles Rapoport in their 1998 primary. However, during his tenure in Congress, Larson has garnered a progressive record. Though his positions in leadership make him somewhat loyal to establishment-based leadership. On Voteview, Larson ranks nearly in the dead middle of his Democratic house colleagues on the Left-Right spectrum, firmly between the moderates and progressives.

John Larson is currently a member of the influential House Ways and Means Committee. He is also included on the Subcommittees on Trade and Social Security. Larson’s main cause in Congress has been focused on social security. Larson has also had prominent leadership positions during his tenure. He was the Vice Chair of the House Democratic Caucus from 2006 to 2009, and was later picked as the chair of the House Democratic Caucus from 2009 to 2013.

Larson has played a large role in authoring legislation that allowed for Medicare to negotiate for lower drug prices for consumers. A prominent provision that was signed into law by President Biden in 2022. Larson, also due to his leadership position, was very involved in passing the Affordable Care Act during the Obama Administration. He also worked with the Late Rep. John Lewis on the For the Peoples Act, and was an original cosponsor of the similar John Lewis Voting Rights Amendment.

Larson Recently

This is something Larson has highlighted in his recent press statements (and by his family members). Larson has discussed his seniority, strength on social security, and how this allows him to have more influence in bringing back funding into the district. Seniority (and bringing funding to the district) has been a long-standing way to encourage primary voters to vote for long-term incumbents. However, in this anti-incumbent environment targeting older lawmakers, it is hard to say how much the salience of seniority arguments works on primary voters after the 2024 elections. An environment where scrutiny over long-term and older incumbents has greatly increased, and seniority lawmakers aren’t seen as much of an asset compared to recent campaigns.

The recent deaths of prominent long-term older Democratic lawmakers, including Rep. Gerry Connolly (VA-11), Rep. Raul Grijalva (AZ-07), and Rep. Sylvester Turner (TX-18) has allowed for the uncomfortable discussion of encouraging the retirement of older lawmakers. Many, however, including Larson, who would turn 80 during his next term, feel that they are capable of being in Congress and that they are the best for the position.

More recently, Larson has had less visual prominence in the Democratic caucus. Larson also attracted unwanted attention for a partial seizure he suffered during a speech in both February and April. His comments in March on Elon Musk garnered positive attention for him. We discussed this in an article two weeks ago. This issue has led many to see Larson as vulnerable.

New Challenger Jack Perry

We discussed Larson’s first challenger in the Hartford Board of Ed. Member and Attorney Ruth Fortune, who filed against Larson during the July 4th weekend.

A new challenger has emerged in the Southington Town Counciler and Small Businessman Jack Perry. Jack Perry has stated “I’m running for Congress because, like so many others, I am fed up with this broken economic system that is rigged against the working and middle class,” he said in a statement. Perry is making this the center of his campaign, featuring the quote on both his campaign kickoff video and on his campaign website.

Perry’s Campaign

Perry didn’t note anything specific about Larson, but talked about needing fresh leadership who will fight against Trump and corporate interests. He also talked about fighting for the person as a working-class person. He also cited his background, experience, and his unique profile for a potential member of Congress. Perry cites this due to his working-class career in the garbage hauling business.

Perry has also gained attention for pledging to spend $500,000 of his own money against Larson. Funds he got from selling his family-owned garage business, HQ Dumpsters and Recycling, though he currently oversees daily operations. He is also suspected of releasing a poll in March, gauging a hypothetical primary, receiving the attention of local state politicos. Perry is not well-known around the state, although he did gain some recognition for running for a State Senate seat in 2020 against Republican incumbent Rob Sampson, who beat Perry 54-46. Notably, Trump performed well in the district.

Due to not being well-known, Perry acknowledges the uphill battle against the incumbent, citing the effort and passion he is willing to put into the campaign. We have to see what issues and events he does to garner more attention.

What is Luke Bronin Planning?

Luke Bronin, the former mayor of Hartford from 2016 until 2024, has spent years preparing for a run for governor. However, with Governor Ned Lamont likely to run for a 3rd term, Bronin is looking elsewhere to continue his political career.

Bronin has a lot of guts. He reportedly has asked Larson to step down and make way for a new generation. Larson told Bronin he is running again, and Bronin has reportedly been seriously contemplating a campaign. Bronin, similar to other challengers, says he respects Larson’s work, but it’s time for the baton to be passed.

I believe Bronin thinks that if he waits to the next open gubernatorial race in 2030, he would have been out of office too long to be seriously considered for the Democratic nomination meaning he is looking at his options.

It is important to note that if he jumps in, this won’t be the first time Bronin has challenged an incumbent in a primary. A background that includes being a Navy veteran, Yale graduate, working in an appointed position at the Treasury Department under Obama, and general counsel for Governor Dannel Malloy’s administration. Bronin challenged Incumbent Hartford Mayor Pedro Segarra in 2015, secured the Democratic Town Committee endorsement, and beat Seggara by ten points.

If he jumps in, we will discuss Bronin’s background in more detail. However, an ambitious politician with experience, good relationships in the district, and the ability to fundraise positions him as a top challenger to Larson if he jumps in. He is also only 46, more than three decades younger than Larson, with experience, something voters in the district might be happy to see in a challenger.

Will Jillian Gilchrest Jump in?

State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest at a conference. Source: Facebook

State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest, the director of Health Professional Outreach at the Connecticut Coalition Against Domestic Violence, is one of the most prominent progressive voices in the state.

Gilchrest, who is also an adjunct professor and was a prominent co-organizer of the Women’s March Connecticut, has also told reporters that she is looking at the race.

Reporters note the lack of downside since so many politicians are looking at the race. Gilchrest, who, like Bronin, came to office from a challenging incumbent. Gilchrest successfully won a primary challenge against 12-term Incumbent State Rep. Andy Fleischmann in the 18th district in 2018. Gilchrest ran on a progressive agenda, focusing on the state’s economic future, new ideas of thinking, and noted that more women needed to be in office.

Gilchrest, who didn’t win the Democratic Town Committee endorsement, petitioned to make the ballot, won an upset 52-48 victory over Fleischman, and has been in office since.

Why Gilchrest is a Prominent Candidate

Gilchrest has been one of the first names frequently mentioned as someone who would very likely run for the 1st district when Larson retires. Gilchrest’s prominence on Women’s issues, maternal health, and education has allowed her a great reputation in the state house. Her previous activism makes her a perfect candidate for progressives.

She told reporters that she is considering running for office. She said that though respect should go to Larson, the number of people getting in has made her want to be part of it. Gilchrest, the co-chair of the assembly’s human services committee, talked about how Democrats are “looking for voices who will be speaking about the issues that impact them and not waiting to feel out how to best say something“. She also noted that leaders who are direct and talk about everyday issues are important.

Gilchrest told the Courant she didn’t have a timeline a few weeks ago, but if she gets in, she will be a very prominent challenger against Larson. She is also only 43, nearly 35 years younger than Larson.

What Will Happen?

Predicting primary elections is difficult, especially a year out before the primary. But here is what I think is likely and what I expect. If I am wrong, then we can look back and have a good laugh!

I think Ruth Fortune will struggle the most out of the four named candidates. She currently has no campaign website and no name ID. She will struggle with funding if more prominent names jump into the race. Under Connecticut’s restrictive ballot system, I don’t think she will make the ballot. She might get some attention, depending on her stances on some issues, but I don’t see her gaining much traction.

Jack Perry is an interesting candidate. A small business owner who is only 35 and has $500,000 is self-funding he is willing to throw against Larson, who, according to the Downballot, has had very meager fundraising for an incumbent in Quarter 2. Larson, who, due to his solid name ID and never having a challenger in the safe Democratic district, has never had to raise much money, but if facing an onslaught of attacks if the race turns negative, he might need to raise more money.

Perry can garner some attention depending on how he takes his campaign. He will need to focus more on the issues and differentiating himself from Larson. Currently, his website has no issues listed. With no likely policy differences, the question is a generational argument enough to take out Larson? I’m skeptical, but things can change throughout the campaign.

Why Money Might Not Guarantee Ballot Access

If Bronin and Gilchrest both don’t jump in, I think Perry will be Larson’s most prominent challenger, but getting on the ballot isn’t easy, even with significant self-funding. If Bronin and Gilchrest do jump in, he might struggle to garner traction and make the ballot.

Perry has to be reminded by 2022. When Larson had a challenger in former staffer and substitute Teacher Muad Hrezi, who raised a solid $500,000 during his primary campaign. Hrezi, however, did not make the ballot due to a poor showing at the Convention and struggling to get signatures in a tough summer primary when COVID made garnering signatures more difficult than usual. However, there was 0 momentum for Larson to face any challenger at that time; state delegates and most primary voters weren’t interested as Hrezi struggled to garner attention.

Despite his self-funding, it might not be enough to challenge Larson considerably without gaining traction otherwise. Hrezi also attempted a generational argument and couldn’t make the ballot or get 15% of the delegates. Of course, there is more momentum for generational change, but Perry will need to convince voters that he is the change.

Here’s Where The Race Becomes Unpredictable

Gilchrest or Bronin, if either enters the race, will both seriously change the calculus of the race. Bronin has many connections across the state and a profile that many would find attractive. Gilchrest, who hails from the voter-rich neighboring suburb of West Hartford, which has the most voters in the district (despite being half of the population of Hartford), is popular and will do well in the town.

Most importantly, both can make the ballot either through convention delegates (due to local prominence) or through the signature requirement of the ballot if they fundraise well.

I would be surprised if both Bronin and Gilchrest entered, as they would be fighting for a similar consistuency, leading to Larson potentially winning the primary in a plurality. It is, however, plausible, and if they both enter, I assume Gilchrest would have a better chance of taking the progressive mantle over Bronin.

Also, though it attracted attention and made Larson appear vulnerable, I’m not sure if a purely age argument will be enough by the summer of 2026. Larson has served the district well, bringing billions of dollars of funding, and will be the chairman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee if Democrats retake the majority next year.

Plausible Scenarios

If Lamont decides not to seek a third term, however, I think Bronin would clearly want to run for governor. Gilchrest, who is still serving in the legislature, would likely have to give up her seat for a risky primary challenge. Bronin is not currently in an elected position, so if he goes for it, Gilchrest might wait to make a decision.

In addition, if the pressure continues and Larson decides to retire, the calculus will change, and I would expect not only both members to enter the primary, but also other members of the legislature and local office to enter for a seat that hasn’t had an open primary in nearly thirty years. In that scenario, I expect a super chaotic race.

Bronin and Gilchrest are some of the most prominent politicians to consider primarying an Incumbent House Member in the country, meaning they could both attract national attention. This can help with fundraising if they go through with it.

They can also increase their prominence if it doesn’t work, as I highly doubt it would end either of their political careers, and might give them other opportunities. However, whenever one challenges an incumbent, it can make relationships with other local members difficult, especially if many favor Larson, which Gilchrest might contemplate more due to being a member of the legislature.

Overall

It’s important to note that Larson is a formidable opponent with decades of experience and relationships across the district. He doesn’t have any specific issue for an opponent to seize on, other than his age.

However, times have changed. Seniority isn’t seen as a positive by some of the Democratic party electorate. An electorate that demands leaders to fight more and be visible on issues on social media.

If Bronin and Gilchrest don’t jump in, I think Larson is super safe in his seat. If Bronin or Gilchrest takes the plunge, I don’t think we can ignore the prospect of a good, competitive race.

It will be interesting to see what happens. I will keep updated on the race and provide updates as needed. I think no matter what, it’ll be an interesting race that everyone should pay attention to.

Thanks for Reading!