Democratic Nominee Larry Pemberton Jr. Source: Norwich Bulletin
Brief Overview
Welcome Back! It’s another special election on the docket today.
Governor Ned Lamont ordered a special election for today, January 13th, back in late November.
This district was vacant, due to sadly, the death of Incumbent State Rep. Kevin Ryan. Ryan passed away at the age of 73 in hospice on November 23rd. He was first elected to the 139th State House seat in 1992.
Democrat Eastern Pequot Tribe member Larry Pemberton Jr. faces Republican businessman Brandon Sabbag.
Mark Adams, the Republican nominee in the last two general elections for the district, is on the ballot as a write-in candidate.
Candidates Biographies and Priorities
Both Pemberton Jr. and Sabbag are first-time candidates.
Pemberton Jr. could be the first member of a state-recognized Connecticut tribe in the General Assembly. He is the treasurer of the tribal nation. Sabbag is a businessman who talks about his struggle with homelessness when he was younger.
Unlike the special election last week, there was some opposition at the nomination convention. There are no primaries for special elections in Connecticut, so party delegates of the district pick the nominees.
At a candidate Q&A on January 5th, the three candidates talked about their views on some issues.
On affordability, Pemberton Jr. discussed finding additional energy sources to lower costs on energy bills. Sabbag said utility companies should get rid of their public benefits charges.
On mental health, some candidates were light on specific solutions to the mental health crisis. Pemberton talked about how he’ll find answers to it. Sabbag believed the answer is that students should pray on it. Adams said parents should be more educated on these issues to help them at home.
On education, Adams discussed how teachers are underpaid. On safety in schools, Pemberton said additional school monitors can help with safety. Sabbag supports having armed security guards in schools.
Generally, one of Pemberton’s priorities is on affordability. Some things he wants to accomplish is adding more housing in Montville, and covering children’s lunches with taxpayer funds.
Sabbag is also focusing on affordability. He says keeping the state’s budget as balanced is important.
Headline Annoyances for one, Major Controversies for another, and even more Drama!
For a special election to fill out the remaining ten months of the term, there is a lot of action happening in the district.
Pemberton has some minor issues that have given him annoying headlines. Sabbag has much larger issues about his past coming to light, in addition to some of his rhetoric. Adams has a lawsuit that could throw the entire race out.
Minor Headline Annoyances for Pemberton and the Nomination Fight
Pemberton Jr. was approved for the $27,375 grant allocated by the State Election Enforcement Commission (SEEC). However, they also voted to investigate $40 in small contributions. Pemberton said the eight contributions came from family members using the same card. It didn’t affect his grant and was a pretty minor issue, yet the SEEC still voted for the investigation. This investigation doesn’t look like much, but the headline ‘Candidate investigated by SEEC’ is definitely not a headline anyone wants.
Unlike the special election last week, Pemberton did face opposition in his nomination and it was also full of drama. Pemberton Jr. won his nomination by a 9-3 vote on December 3rd against Billy Caron, a Montville Town Council member and longtime friend of Former Rep. Ryan.
Pemberton has the backing of State Senator Cathy Osten, a longtime supporter of the Pequots and Mohegans. Caron has complained about what he feels was Osten’s interference, for someone who was not a registered Democrat. Something that the CT Mirror said wasn’t well-known during the nomination. Osten says, she was not responsible for delivering delegate support.
It’ll be interesting to see if Caron runs in a primary in the summer, but he hasn’t mentioned that yet.
Sabbag’s Arrests and Rhetoric Come to Light
Brandon Sabbag has multiple arrests in his criminal record. This includes convictions for misdemeanor assault and felony witness tampering in 2018. According to the New London-based publication The Day, both his charges resulted in him receiving prison time at his sentencing, but it was eventually suspended.
Under Connecticut law, Sabbag is allowed to run for office once his probation has been completed. His probation was completed in 2020.
The Day also found two more convictions, one from 2012 and another from 2017. It is unknown how the cases were resolved due to a pre-trial diversionary program that removes the charges from the defendant’s record.
Sabbag did not speak with a reporter when asked about his criminal history. He did comment on a text, that it happened when he and his partner faced “hard time” and “fought”.
Sabbag also faces some attention for his comments on trans issues, due to some of his social media posts, which many have called transphobic.
He was confronted about this during a town hall debate. He denied both claims to a resident, but when the resident said you really did. Sabbag replied, “ Transgenderism is demonic,” Sabbag replied, quoting from Genesis 1:26. He then continued, “It says that God made man and woman in His image. If you’re transgender, that’s okay. I support you having a right to be what you want to be, but I’ll tell you right now that is not how God created you. It is not who you are. The newspapers can post this. I don’t care, because I’m unapologetically me,” he said.
Both his opponents, when given the opportunity to respond to the exchange, declined.
Adams Adding Some Drama
Mark Adams, the Republican nominee in 2022 and 2024, tried to get on the ballot under the Independent ballot line. He sued due to this exclusion and is campaigning as a write-in candidate.
A superior court judge declined to dismiss the lawsuit, which claims the Secretary of State’s office wrongly refused to accept his Independent Party nomination paper over a technicality, a missing signature.
There is a small chance that if Adams succeeds in this lawsuit, it could trigger a repeat special election, with Adams listed on the ballot as an Independent.
District Information
The 139th State House District has been represented by Kevin Ryan since 1992. It has long been located in Eastern Connecticut, though the district lines have moved between surrounding towns during Ryan’s tenure.
From 1992 to the early 2000s, the district contained parts of Bozrah, Franklin, Lebanon, and Montville. In 2012, during redistricting, the lines shifted and included parts of Bozrah and Montville, but added Norwich.
In 2022, in redistricting, the district kept the precincts in Norwich, switched one in Montville, but added another precinct in Bozrah. The 5 precincts, 1 in Ledyard, 2 in Montville, and 2 in Norwich make up the district.
The district has shifted a bit to the right in the last decade. After Ryan won his first term with 49% of the vote, he won comfortably, winning more than 57% of the vote in all of his elections until 2018. Since 2018, Ryan has won the seat by about 8-10 points every two years.
In the 2024 Presidential Election, Rep. Kevin Ryan won 55-45, slightly outperforming Kamala Harris, who won the district 53-45.
Expectations for the Special Election
Ballot for today’s special election in Ledyard District 3. Source: CT Secretary of State Website
Democrats are likely to win this district tonight. Though it will be a bit more competitive than the special election last week, due to the fact that it’s only a Harris +7.5 district.
However, the scandals and arrest record of Sabbag might drag him down, giving Pemberton Jr a good shot of winning the seat. In addition, some write-in votes for Adams, likely from Republicans, can increase Pemberton Jr’s margin.
As I said in the special election last week, according to The Downballot, Democrats have overperformed the 2024 Presidential Results in special elections by 13.8 points. With Democratic voters very motivated as we enter the second year of Trump’s presidency, we will see the level of overperformance!
Though in Connecticut, overperformances for the Democratic Party have not been very high. Last week, the overperformance was only about two points. And last year had two special elections where Republicans overperform.
Though this is a district that Democrats might see a better performance. The one significant Democratic overperformance last year, a 16-point Democratic overperformance in CT-HD-40. Only about ten miles away from this district, Eastern Connecticut is the one part of the state where overperformances in specials might be more likely than other parts of the state.
Votes tonight will likely come town by town. Here are the reference numbers for each town.
Ledyard (1 Precinct) – Harris 55.1-42.8 (About 18% of the 2024 District Vote Here)
Montville (2 Precincts) – Trump 50.6-47.7 (About 33% of the 2024 District Vote Here)
Norwich (2 precincts) – Harris 55.6-42.8 (About 49% of the 2024 District Vote Here)
We will update on Twitter/X as results come in after polls close at 8:00 pm.
Thanks for Reading!