State Senator Ryan Fazio (R-Greenwich). Source: CT Senate Republicans

Overview

State Senator Ryan Fazio (R-Greenwich) launched an exploratory committee for governor last Friday. The field of Republican field has many names, but no one seems to have a firm grasp on the nomination.

Fazio, who won his second full term in November, has to decide in the next few months if he wants to take on the difficult task of running for Governor. A serious campaign would involve strategic considerations and an intense amount of fundraising, especially if Fazio has to run against the well-funded Gov. Lamont. Fazio would also have to leave his Republican State Senate seat, which would be vulnerable to a Democratic flip in 2026, further pushing Republicans into a deep minority in the State Legislature.

Background

Born in Connecticut and grew up attending the Greenwich Public Schools. Fazio went to Northwestern University, where he studied economics, graduating in 2012.

Fazio spent most of his career working in commodity markets, specializing in renewable energy. This market included the movement of millions of tons of agricultural and energy goods around the world.

He has spent time volunteering in inner-city charter schools. Currently, he volunteers for the organizations Greenwich United Way and Meals on Wheels

Currently, Fazio is the Vice President of Growth Equity Firm. The firm invests in medium-sized businesses and advises their management to help them grow.

Political History

Fazio’s first elected office was as a member of the Greenwich Representative Town Meeting in 2019. As one of the members of the 230-member legislative body of Greenwich, Fazio served on the finance committee.

In 2020, Fazio attempted his first major run for office against Democratic Incumbent State Senator Alex Kasser. Kasser represented the 36th State Senate District. A district Kasser won in the 2018 blue wave against the Republican incumbent, L Scott Frantz, in an upset 50-49.

Fazio narrowly lost the seat 49-51, despite Biden carrying the district by nearly 20 points during the presidential election.

The 36th State Senate Seat, part of Connecticut’s Gold Coast, was long a Republican stronghold on the federal level until the mid-2010s. The seat had been in Republican hands from 1930 till Kasser’s win in 2018. The district took a massive shift to the left in 2016, voting for Mitt Romney by 10 points (54-44), to voting for Hillary Clinton by 18 points (57-39). However, Republicans have still done well in local and legislative elections in recent years.

Fazio, though, didn’t have to wait long for another chance. Kasser resigned from office in June 2021, leading to a summer special election. Fazio ran against Democrat Alexis Gevanter, and he prevailed 50-48.

Now an incumbent, Fazio still had a tough race in 2022, due to the Democratic lean of the district at the federal level. However, he came out the narrowest of wins against Democrat Trevor Crow, winning a 50.1-49.9 squeaker.

2022 36th State Senate Seat Election. Fazio narrowly held on by 89 votes. Source: CT Secretary of State Website

2024 Election

Democrats in Connecticut had their eyes set on taking out Fazio during the 2024 Presidential Election. Democrats heavily recruited and found a strong candidate in former Deputy Chief of Staff to Gov. Lamont, Nick Simmons.

Simmons boosted a great resume, including a bachelor’s from Yale, a Master’s in Public Policy from Harvard Kennedy School, and an MBA from Harvard. Simmons worked a short stint at the UBS Investment Bank before becoming a 7th-grade math teacher in Harlem, NY. Soon, Simmons was acting principal of the school at age 26, one of the youngest in New York. After a stint in the Biden administration as a senior advisor and in Lamont’s governor’s office, he gave Fazio a tough fight ahead of him.

Though Fazio proved he could win this district despite difficult headwinds, he still had to face heavy spending. Simmons not only had the resume but was able to fundraise well due to heavy political backing from his sister, Mayor of Stamford Caroline Simmons. This led to Fazio facing not only Simmons’s 500k fundraising but also nearly $400k in outside spending.

Simmons, knowing the blue leanings of the district, tried to associate Fazio with Trump, citing Fazio’s votes on guns, abortions, and reproductive healthcare on the campaign trail. Simmons campaigned as moderate, aligning himself with Gov. Lamont. Fazio, though conservative, was continually able to appeal to moderates, and he heavily avoided discussing Trump on the campaign trail.

Election day came, and Fazio emerged victorious over Simmons in a surprise 52-48 victory. This was despite the fact that Kamala Harris won the district by over 16 points. Fazio credited his win to a bipartisan record. Simmons noted he lost because voters were much more drawn to Fazio, and his incumbency advantage likely assisted him. Also, on many issues, Fazio and Simmons had similar positions, such as energy policy and lowering costs on electricity and gas for residents.

Who Is Running for the Nomination Currently

After winning multiple tough elections and holding Greenwich’s affinity for downballot Republicans, Fazio has a good base to start fundraising for a prospective campaign.

All the way back in March, I wrote an article about the Republican Primary, which included Westport First Selectwoman Jen Tooker, who was the first person to enter the race. Surprisingly, after nearly five months, not much has changed. Tooker is the only one still officially in the race, and New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart has continued to raise money in her exploratory committee.

Tooker, Stewart, and Fazio seem to be the major candidates for the Republican nomination. Some minor candidates have filed, including perennial candidate Peter Lumaj, but I don’t expect much from him.

All three major candidates have proven the ability to win on blue turf. Tooker and Stewart have won the top positions in their towns, both of which Kamala Harris won by over 20 points. The ability to win on Democratic turf is appealing for a general election in a state where Democrats have done well. However, all three candidates have to balance out their viewpoints to win a closed Republican primary.

On the fundraising side, Stewart has the most money on hand, at about $222,000. Tooker only has $50,000, with even Lumaj close behind at $46,000.

No one seems to be running away with the nomination, so Fazio can easily make up ground.

Strengths

Fazio’s strengths are his clear ability to win over Democratic voters, in addition to moderates.

Most importantly, Fazio has been able to maintain the backing of Trump’s MAGA wing of the party as well as pro-business Republicans and moderates. This is important in Greenwich, where the conservative faction of the party has taken over the local GOP committee, taking out anyone who wasn’t deemed loyal to the Republican cause. Fazio said he sees himself as uniting Republicans on all sides.

Fazio is also respected on both sides of the aisle, and many of his fellow legislators have been hoping for him to take charge. A member of both the Energy & Technology Committee and the Finance, Revenue, & Bonding Committee, he has many backers who believe he can give Lamont and Democrats a competitive race. Some believe he could actually win. State Senator Rob Sampson (R-Wolcott) was thinking of entering the race, but told CTInsider Reporter Dan Haar that he was working to persuade Fazio to run. He says that Fazio’s ability to talk policy and communicate would prove very beneficial. If he gets the backing of many of the Republican legislative members, which seems likely, it’ll help him in a race.

Fazio, who is only 35, if facing Lamont, would be able to sufficiently show a generational change and contrast from Lamont, who will be running for a 3rd term at the age of 72, meaning some voters might be feeling fatigued from Lamont’s candidacy.

Fazio, however, has created a moderate reputation by being able to avoid discussing Trump and where he aligns with the president. Though this was allowed by many MAGA faithful in a competitive race, Fazio, like many of his Republican opponents, will need to figure out how to preserve their moderate reputation while sufficiently proving their loyalty to Trump voters who tend to dominate the state’s closed Republican primary.

Troubles for Republican-Endorsed Candidates

The GOP has had a lot of trouble getting its endorsed candidates through the primary the last couple of years. House Minority Leader Thelmis Klarides lost to Trump-endorsed Businesswoman Leora Levy in 2022, despite having the GOP endorsement, as the small Republican primary electorate preferred Trump’s choice, despite Klarides being a way better general election challenger.

In 2024, the Republican endorsed Beacon Falls Selectman Gerry Smith lost the Republican primary to businessman Matthew Corey, who had enough name ID from his previous Senate run in 2018 (and other runs for office), to win the super low-turnout primary. Corey won’t be going anywhere with Republican voters as he is currently running for Lieutenant Governor. Connecticut is one of a handful of states, where the Lieutenant Governor runs a separate primary from the governor, but is elected on one ticket in the general election, akin to a “shotgun wedding”. We will discuss this more as we get closer to next year.

Convincing the electorate is everything, and though Fazio might be able to attract voters based on stances about taxes and electric bills, he needs to sufficiently prove the base that he is loyal, and that is easier said than done. He will also need to convince voters to move on from Lamont, who, despite his primary challenge, is still popular with a majority of Democrats in the state.

Fazio also isn’t known as a spectacular fundraiser (though sufficient), as he will need to generate a lot of funds for a statewide run. Being in elected office for 4 years, he is not well-known to voters and will have to do a lot of work to sufficiently increase his name ID for a run.

Fazio would also be leaving his seat in a very blue area during a midterm where Republicans hold all three pillars of national government, leaving his party to defend the seat or else face a smaller Republican minority in the legislature.

Overview

The Republican Primary is a fully open race, and no candidate is leading by enough to warrant anyone from dropping out. The 2018 Republican Primary was so crowded, victor Bob Stefanowski won the primary with under 30% of the vote. This race could be similar, though we will see if Republicans organize more and get behind one candidate, or allow a free-for-all for what is typically a late summer primary.

Fazio is definitely a good candidate for Republicans, someone who is young and has the proven ability to win over Democrats and moderates. He, most importantly, has been on the good side of the MAGA part of the base in Greenwich, and shows his ability to join some of the party’s factions together.

However, he’ll need to contend with low name ID, a lot of campaign fundraising, and how to sufficiently mention Trump to win the primary but maintain enough moderate credentials in what is looking like a blue Democratic year election. He can’t avoid the president in a primary of the party’s faithful.

How Fazio will contend with this, or how Republicans will organize this effort, we will have to wait and see!

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