Luke Bronin in his campaign video: Source: Twitter

It’s Happening!

Luke Bronin, the former mayor of Hartford, released a campaign video Tuesday morning announcing a primary challenge to 14-term incumbent John Larson.

Overview

On Monday, I dropped an article discussing the prospects of multiple challengers to Congressman John Larson. I discussed the potential candidacies of Luke Bronin and State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest, who could potentially join a crowded field with Hartford Board of Ed Member Ruth Fortune and Southington Town Councilor Jack Perry.

Now, Bronin has officially thrown his hat in the ring. He is currently Larson’s strongest challenger and will make Larson work for a potential 15th term in Congress.

Larson and Bronin

Larson was reportedly shocked when Bronin asked him to consider retirement. He said, “I thought he was kidding”. When Larson said he was going to run, Bronin told him he was going to run against him.

Larson told a dig at Bronin, offering a “new voice”. He said “You know, it takes work. It takes effort. It takes a plan. We’ve got them, and we’re going to deliver on it,” Larson said. “When you run for public office, it’s about what you’ve been able to deliver, what you’re currently working on today, and what your vision is for the future. What was Mr. Bronin’s?”

Bronin later remarked that he didn’t feel that Larson has the sense of urgency necessary. Larson told reporters how they don’t cover social security enough and the importance of the issue (and his bill on it), saying if Democrats win the House in 2026, he’ll regain his chairmanship.

However, he was unable to win passage when Democrats had unified control in 2021 and 2009, and Democrats won’t have control in 2026. Larson insisted that social security reforms were still possibly, and said next week, a bill will be dropped that addresses it, “first time a leader in the House of Representatives in more than 50 years has been out in front.”. He also hinted that Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jefferies will come to Connecticut on his behalf.

The dam is broken in a state where ambitious politicians have long deferred to the state’s top officials, waiting for an open seat or opportunity. Larson was waltzing his way to another term, waiting to announce a campaign after local elections in November, as he only needs minimal fundraising in this safe Harris 61-38 district. However, these challenges have changed everything, and Larson announced a campaign kickoff next month, but told everyone he will be running again, and that he’s the best for the job.

Personal Background

Luke Bronin grew up in the wealthy communities of Rye, NY, and Greenwich, CT. The son of a doctor and a former teacher. Bronin grew up attending the prestigious Phillips Exeter Academy in New Hampshire. He lated attended recieved his undergraduate degree and law degree from Yale University. He was also a Rhodes Scholar.

Bronin has had many jobs before he became mayor.

He worked as the chief of staff for the president and property casualty operations at the Hartford Financial Services Group. Bronin worked at the US Department of the Treasury during the Obama administration. He was the Deputy Assistant Secretary for terrorist financing and financial crimes. His work involved working on the government’s efforts against regimes in Syria and Iran, blocking money from terrorist groups.

He served in the US Navy Reserve during a deployment in Afghanistan for six months, where he was part of an anti-corruption task force.

Just before his mayoral campaign, he worked as part of then-Gov. Dannell Malloy’s general counsel. He was also a partner in the law firm Hinckley Allen.

Hartford Mayoral Race in 2015

Bronin moved to Hartford in 2006 when his former wife, Sara, got a job the University of Connecticut School of Law. He left in 2009, for work in Washington, D.C, and in Afghanistan. He returned to the city in 2013.

Bronin challenged incumbent Mayor Pedro Seggara in 2015. The city of Hartford has faced many issues over the previous years. In 2010, Mayor Eddie Perez resigned after a conviction on corruption charges. Perez was known as exerting a huge control over the city.

Interestingly, Seggara was known as the opposite. Though he won the 2011 mayoral race, Seggara received a poor reputation as an executive and had poor relations with many of the state’s leaders. He was also seen as a weaker leader.

Seggara used tactics that will likely be used against Bronin in his congressional campaign, such as attacking his privileged upbringing, his background, and the fact that he was an outsider with weak ties to the city. Though it did not work, some of the attacks stuck with Bronin throughout his tenure.

In September of 2015, as expected, Bronin emerged victorious and won the Mayoral Race 55-45 over Seggara.

Mayoral Tenure

Dunkin Park in 2023. A huge economic benefit and developmental liability faced by Hartford: Source: Hartford Courant

Bronin faced immediate issues in a city that faced with some of the poorest precincts in the country. The city’s challenges were endless and difficult to contend with.

Bronin’s biggest accomplishment was likely leading the city out of the verge of bankruptcy by winning passage of state-financed bailout in 2017. He was also able to get business leaders and surrounding suburban communities on his side of the issue, agreeing to help out the city.

Ned Lamont praised Bronin’s tenure in 2022 as he announced he was stepping down. Lamont praised Bronin on helping many business stay in the area, and his better relationships with officals allowed Bronin to secure funding for the city’s infrastructure.

The city has also had many recent development areas for business and new housing. An aggressive push for mixed-income housing occurred. Through this, many communitiy intitvatives have taken place to help discconected youth. Bronin also received praise for his COVID-19 response and his style in informing city residents of the crisis,

Some debate if Bronin really solved the fiscal crisis or just convinced the state to pay for it. There was a debate from many people in surrounding areas whether they had to pay for Hartford’s mishandling of finances prior to Bronin’s tenure. Nevertheless, he’s been given credit for the city’s improved financial situation.

Bronin has also faced criticism for labor relations, due to his initial proposed concessions with city unions. In addition, gun violence and crime remained a large issue through his tenure with a spike occuring soon after the start of the pandemic. The city also faced isues from the developers of the Hartford Yard Goats stadium, and how the pandemic affected office buildings downtown.

Some critics also point to Bronin’s push for market race housing which was not seen as effective. Some felt he should have focused more against landlords.

Strengths of Candidacy

• Profile: Bronin has an appealing profile as a young elected official with a lot of experience. He served in the Treasury Department, had a tour in Afghanistan, and was a Rhodes Scholar. This could allow voters to be comforted by someone who is new, yet very experienced.
• Generational Change: Bronin is more than 30 years younger than Larson. Local voters will be happy to see an experienced candidate who is young and energetic. Bronin says an important reason on primarying Larson is the importance of communication through social media and other means. He says good policy does not get you as far in this environment. I believe this is a good argument to start with. But he has to put out content and positions that prove this point. Bronin, however, is ambitious and has been his entire career, so his energy to the race can help him.
• Connections: Bronin is a state staple who is well-known for being close with elected officials across the state in the district. Some say that he is good at connecting with others. Others note that he has kept up good relations with many leaders in the district, attending events, and keeping up connections. This can help him, as many other leaders in the district will endorse Larson. He can possibly get some endorsements from Hartford and the surrounding areas.
• Name ID and Fundraising: Looking at Bronin’s other opponents. Ruth Fortune and Jack Perry face massive issues in their name ID. No one knows who they are. Bronin’s leadership of the capital city and bid for governor in 2018 make him much more well-known to voters of the local area. Even if State Rep. Gilchrest jumps in, Bronin starts out ahead on a name ID level. For Democratic primary voters, this will help him more. In addition, during his 2015 mayoral campaign, Bronin prepared early and raised more than $800,000 against the incumbent, so his fundraising chops will come in handy for this race.
• First Significant Challenger: Though Larson has other challengers, Bronin is much more well-known than the others. This allows him an early start on fundraising and gives him the mantra of Larson’s main challenger. If someone else jumps in, they would have to compete with the others’ fundraising, with pressure for one of them to drop out to consolidate the Anti-Larson vote.

Weaknessess

• Profile: This can go both ways. Bronin will need to contend with his affluent upbringing and work to carefully make a profile to make residents believe he can understand their issues. Bronin shielded these attacks in 2015 by noting the difficult upbringing faced by his parents and family, and how they worked hard to give him a better life. How can he contend this in 2025, which will likely be similar, but involve a different angle. Bronin, a white-male guy in his 40s, needs to explain to a party of base voters that he can understand the plight of racial minorities in a district with a growing minority population. In addition, Bronin will need to be careful about fundraising, ensuring he gets it from small donors and not corporations or rich donors. Finally, Bronin will need to be careful to not hold an establishment reputation. Though that sentiment decrease with his challenge in the first place, people want someone new, not someone of the past. Bronin will need to prove that he is different than the current Democrats of Washington.
• Big-City Mayor: Being a mayor of a big city as its pros and cons. Facing systemic problems faced by the poorest of state residents is difficult. The city’s crime rates were high. Bronin will have to defend his mayoral tenure, faced by questions about the city’s schools and crime. A city that has faced scrutiny for it. In addition, many public comments about mistakes and governing abilities are likely due to the size of the city. Can Bronin said he made the city better than it was when he left during his eight-year tenure. If he struggles with this answer, people will question why they should make him a congressman.
• Ambition: Political opportunism is common in politics. But how people view is all dependent on the candidate. It’s no secret that Bronin wants to run for governor instead. Will voters not feel like he actually wants to be their congressman over higher aspirations? We won’t know this until the campaign kicks off in earnest.
• 5-Way Race: If this race were between Bronin and Larson, it could be much closer. If Gilchrest jumps into the race, and due to her more progressive reputation in the legislature, is able to take that mantle from Bronin as the change that is needed. She will dominate fundraising nationally over him. Bronin will get caught between them. However, a multi-way race will likely benefit Larson, who can win with a plurality of the vote.

Conclusion

This is a very different environment from when Bronin won his 2015 Democratic primary for mayor. He had the city’s establishment and leaders behind him. He will likely not enjoy that privilege this time. CT Mirror’s Mark Paznikos reports that since Larson’s issues earlier in the year, and the threat of challenges, he’s looks as energetic as ever running around the district.

Larson is a staple in the district. Explaining to voters why they should toss out an incumbent for age reasons only isn’t enough if Larson can prove he’s more effective.

Larson will sweep endorsements of the state’s federal delegation, likely. Local endorsements may vary, as Bronin definitely can get some endorsements from the city. Bronin has a good chance to make this a competitive race, but he needs to clearly define himself as more than a generational change.

Though this is a good start, he needs to start taking positions and try new ideas that either Larson hasn’t talked about, or that his opponents haven’t seized on. Whether it’s a national policy or a local policy, Using his current profile to make himself the favorite of the people willing to vote for change will be necessary.

Most importantly, he needs to do this before (and if) Gilchrest jumps into the race, and seize on this energy. Since Gilchrest has more reputation as a progressive, if that’s the direction he chooses, he needs to affirm if before he gets caught in the middle between her and Larson. If Gilchrest doesn’t jump in, he still needs to build a profile that can appeal to a wide range of residents.

He has a chance to change the dynamics of this district. What I’m sure of he will give Larson a good race. How far can he go?

We have to wait to see how his campaign takes off and the positions he takes. Importantly, how his opponents and Larson will navigate this new field.

Thanks for Reading!

Southington Council Member and Small Business Owner Jack Perry with his family. Source: Jack Perry for Congress

Overview

The 1st Congressional District has something brewing that may lead to an outcome that hasn’t happened since the state started conducting formal primaries over five decades ago. There might be a primary challenger on the ballot against an Incumbent Democratic member of the House.

John Larson, a 14-term incumbent in the 1st congressional district, is a staple in his district. He has not faced a single challenger since his narrow primary win in the open seat against then Secretary of State Miles Rapoport in 1998.

He not only has two challengers running against him currently, Hartford Board of Education member Ruth Fortune, and Southington Town Council Member Jack Perry. But two even more prominent names, former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, and State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest, have publicly discussed the possibility of challenging Larson. If either takes the plunge, we might have the most significant primary challenge against an incumbent in the state since Senator Joe Lieberman in 2006.

A Brief Political Background on John Larson

John Larson has been a staple in the 1st District for over three decades. He grew up in public housing with seven brothers and sisters in East Hartford.

After graduating from East Hartford High School and Central Connecticut State University (CCSU). Larson worked as a high school history teacher and co-owned an insurance agency before entering politics.

He started his career on the East Hartford Board of Education in 1977. He rose quickly to the East Hartford Town Council, and by 1982, he was elected to the Connecticut State Senate in the 3rd District. By 1987, he was picked by his peers as President Pro Tempore of the State Senate.

Larson did not run for reelection and lost the 1994 Democratic nomination for Governor to Bill Curry. Larson entered private business but ensured to keep up his political connections. He was able to leverage these connections for the 1st Congressional seat in 1998. The seat was open since Democratic Incumbent Barbara Kennelly decided to run for governor.

He narrowly defeated Secretary of State Miles Rapoport in the primary by a narrow 46-42 margin.

Larson in Congress

Interestingly, Larson was the moderate challenger in his primary race against the more progressive Miles Rapoport in their 1998 primary. However, during his tenure in Congress, Larson has garnered a progressive record. Though his positions in leadership make him somewhat loyal to establishment-based leadership. On Voteview, Larson ranks nearly in the dead middle of his Democratic house colleagues on the Left-Right spectrum, firmly between the moderates and progressives.

John Larson is currently a member of the influential House Ways and Means Committee. He is also included on the Subcommittees on Trade and Social Security. Larson’s main cause in Congress has been focused on social security. Larson has also had prominent leadership positions during his tenure. He was the Vice Chair of the House Democratic Caucus from 2006 to 2009, and was later picked as the chair of the House Democratic Caucus from 2009 to 2013.

Larson has played a large role in authoring legislation that allowed for Medicare to negotiate for lower drug prices for consumers. A prominent provision that was signed into law by President Biden in 2022. Larson, also due to his leadership position, was very involved in passing the Affordable Care Act during the Obama Administration. He also worked with the Late Rep. John Lewis on the For the Peoples Act, and was an original cosponsor of the similar John Lewis Voting Rights Amendment.

Larson Recently

This is something Larson has highlighted in his recent press statements (and by his family members). Larson has discussed his seniority, strength on social security, and how this allows him to have more influence in bringing back funding into the district. Seniority (and bringing funding to the district) has been a long-standing way to encourage primary voters to vote for long-term incumbents. However, in this anti-incumbent environment targeting older lawmakers, it is hard to say how much the salience of seniority arguments works on primary voters after the 2024 elections. An environment where scrutiny over long-term and older incumbents has greatly increased, and seniority lawmakers aren’t seen as much of an asset compared to recent campaigns.

The recent deaths of prominent long-term older Democratic lawmakers, including Rep. Gerry Connolly (VA-11), Rep. Raul Grijalva (AZ-07), and Rep. Sylvester Turner (TX-18) has allowed for the uncomfortable discussion of encouraging the retirement of older lawmakers. Many, however, including Larson, who would turn 80 during his next term, feel that they are capable of being in Congress and that they are the best for the position.

More recently, Larson has had less visual prominence in the Democratic caucus. Larson also attracted unwanted attention for a partial seizure he suffered during a speech in both February and April. His comments in March on Elon Musk garnered positive attention for him. We discussed this in an article two weeks ago. This issue has led many to see Larson as vulnerable.

New Challenger Jack Perry

We discussed Larson’s first challenger in the Hartford Board of Ed. Member and Attorney Ruth Fortune, who filed against Larson during the July 4th weekend.

A new challenger has emerged in the Southington Town Counciler and Small Businessman Jack Perry. Jack Perry has stated “I’m running for Congress because, like so many others, I am fed up with this broken economic system that is rigged against the working and middle class,” he said in a statement. Perry is making this the center of his campaign, featuring the quote on both his campaign kickoff video and on his campaign website.

Perry’s Campaign

Perry didn’t note anything specific about Larson, but talked about needing fresh leadership who will fight against Trump and corporate interests. He also talked about fighting for the person as a working-class person. He also cited his background, experience, and his unique profile for a potential member of Congress. Perry cites this due to his working-class career in the garbage hauling business.

Perry has also gained attention for pledging to spend $500,000 of his own money against Larson. Funds he got from selling his family-owned garage business, HQ Dumpsters and Recycling, though he currently oversees daily operations. He is also suspected of releasing a poll in March, gauging a hypothetical primary, receiving the attention of local state politicos. Perry is not well-known around the state, although he did gain some recognition for running for a State Senate seat in 2020 against Republican incumbent Rob Sampson, who beat Perry 54-46. Notably, Trump performed well in the district.

Due to not being well-known, Perry acknowledges the uphill battle against the incumbent, citing the effort and passion he is willing to put into the campaign. We have to see what issues and events he does to garner more attention.

What is Luke Bronin Planning?

Luke Bronin, the former mayor of Hartford from 2016 until 2024, has spent years preparing for a run for governor. However, with Governor Ned Lamont likely to run for a 3rd term, Bronin is looking elsewhere to continue his political career.

Bronin has a lot of guts. He reportedly has asked Larson to step down and make way for a new generation. Larson told Bronin he is running again, and Bronin has reportedly been seriously contemplating a campaign. Bronin, similar to other challengers, says he respects Larson’s work, but it’s time for the baton to be passed.

I believe Bronin thinks that if he waits to the next open gubernatorial race in 2030, he would have been out of office too long to be seriously considered for the Democratic nomination meaning he is looking at his options.

It is important to note that if he jumps in, this won’t be the first time Bronin has challenged an incumbent in a primary. A background that includes being a Navy veteran, Yale graduate, working in an appointed position at the Treasury Department under Obama, and general counsel for Governor Dannel Malloy’s administration. Bronin challenged Incumbent Hartford Mayor Pedro Segarra in 2015, secured the Democratic Town Committee endorsement, and beat Seggara by ten points.

If he jumps in, we will discuss Bronin’s background in more detail. However, an ambitious politician with experience, good relationships in the district, and the ability to fundraise positions him as a top challenger to Larson if he jumps in. He is also only 46, more than three decades younger than Larson, with experience, something voters in the district might be happy to see in a challenger.

Will Jillian Gilchrest Jump in?

State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest at a conference. Source: Facebook

State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest, the director of Health Professional Outreach at the Connecticut Coalition Against Domestic Violence, is one of the most prominent progressive voices in the state.

Gilchrest, who is also an adjunct professor and was a prominent co-organizer of the Women’s March Connecticut, has also told reporters that she is looking at the race.

Reporters note the lack of downside since so many politicians are looking at the race. Gilchrest, who, like Bronin, came to office from a challenging incumbent. Gilchrest successfully won a primary challenge against 12-term Incumbent State Rep. Andy Fleischmann in the 18th district in 2018. Gilchrest ran on a progressive agenda, focusing on the state’s economic future, new ideas of thinking, and noted that more women needed to be in office.

Gilchrest, who didn’t win the Democratic Town Committee endorsement, petitioned to make the ballot, won an upset 52-48 victory over Fleischman, and has been in office since.

Why Gilchrest is a Prominent Candidate

Gilchrest has been one of the first names frequently mentioned as someone who would very likely run for the 1st district when Larson retires. Gilchrest’s prominence on Women’s issues, maternal health, and education has allowed her a great reputation in the state house. Her previous activism makes her a perfect candidate for progressives.

She told reporters that she is considering running for office. She said that though respect should go to Larson, the number of people getting in has made her want to be part of it. Gilchrest, the co-chair of the assembly’s human services committee, talked about how Democrats are “looking for voices who will be speaking about the issues that impact them and not waiting to feel out how to best say something“. She also noted that leaders who are direct and talk about everyday issues are important.

Gilchrest told the Courant she didn’t have a timeline a few weeks ago, but if she gets in, she will be a very prominent challenger against Larson. She is also only 43, nearly 35 years younger than Larson.

What Will Happen?

Predicting primary elections is difficult, especially a year out before the primary. But here is what I think is likely and what I expect. If I am wrong, then we can look back and have a good laugh!

I think Ruth Fortune will struggle the most out of the four named candidates. She currently has no campaign website and no name ID. She will struggle with funding if more prominent names jump into the race. Under Connecticut’s restrictive ballot system, I don’t think she will make the ballot. She might get some attention, depending on her stances on some issues, but I don’t see her gaining much traction.

Jack Perry is an interesting candidate. A small business owner who is only 35 and has $500,000 is self-funding he is willing to throw against Larson, who, according to the Downballot, has had very meager fundraising for an incumbent in Quarter 2. Larson, who, due to his solid name ID and never having a challenger in the safe Democratic district, has never had to raise much money, but if facing an onslaught of attacks if the race turns negative, he might need to raise more money.

Perry can garner some attention depending on how he takes his campaign. He will need to focus more on the issues and differentiating himself from Larson. Currently, his website has no issues listed. With no likely policy differences, the question is a generational argument enough to take out Larson? I’m skeptical, but things can change throughout the campaign.

Why Money Might Not Guarantee Ballot Access

If Bronin and Gilchrest both don’t jump in, I think Perry will be Larson’s most prominent challenger, but getting on the ballot isn’t easy, even with significant self-funding. If Bronin and Gilchrest do jump in, he might struggle to garner traction and make the ballot.

Perry has to be reminded by 2022. When Larson had a challenger in former staffer and substitute Teacher Muad Hrezi, who raised a solid $500,000 during his primary campaign. Hrezi, however, did not make the ballot due to a poor showing at the Convention and struggling to get signatures in a tough summer primary when COVID made garnering signatures more difficult than usual. However, there was 0 momentum for Larson to face any challenger at that time; state delegates and most primary voters weren’t interested as Hrezi struggled to garner attention.

Despite his self-funding, it might not be enough to challenge Larson considerably without gaining traction otherwise. Hrezi also attempted a generational argument and couldn’t make the ballot or get 15% of the delegates. Of course, there is more momentum for generational change, but Perry will need to convince voters that he is the change.

Here’s Where The Race Becomes Unpredictable

Gilchrest or Bronin, if either enters the race, will both seriously change the calculus of the race. Bronin has many connections across the state and a profile that many would find attractive. Gilchrest, who hails from the voter-rich neighboring suburb of West Hartford, which has the most voters in the district (despite being half of the population of Hartford), is popular and will do well in the town.

Most importantly, both can make the ballot either through convention delegates (due to local prominence) or through the signature requirement of the ballot if they fundraise well.

I would be surprised if both Bronin and Gilchrest entered, as they would be fighting for a similar consistuency, leading to Larson potentially winning the primary in a plurality. It is, however, plausible, and if they both enter, I assume Gilchrest would have a better chance of taking the progressive mantle over Bronin.

Also, though it attracted attention and made Larson appear vulnerable, I’m not sure if a purely age argument will be enough by the summer of 2026. Larson has served the district well, bringing billions of dollars of funding, and will be the chairman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee if Democrats retake the majority next year.

Plausible Scenarios

If Lamont decides not to seek a third term, however, I think Bronin would clearly want to run for governor. Gilchrest, who is still serving in the legislature, would likely have to give up her seat for a risky primary challenge. Bronin is not currently in an elected position, so if he goes for it, Gilchrest might wait to make a decision.

In addition, if the pressure continues and Larson decides to retire, the calculus will change, and I would expect not only both members to enter the primary, but also other members of the legislature and local office to enter for a seat that hasn’t had an open primary in nearly thirty years. In that scenario, I expect a super chaotic race.

Bronin and Gilchrest are some of the most prominent politicians to consider primarying an Incumbent House Member in the country, meaning they could both attract national attention. This can help with fundraising if they go through with it.

They can also increase their prominence if it doesn’t work, as I highly doubt it would end either of their political careers, and might give them other opportunities. However, whenever one challenges an incumbent, it can make relationships with other local members difficult, especially if many favor Larson, which Gilchrest might contemplate more due to being a member of the legislature.

Overall

It’s important to note that Larson is a formidable opponent with decades of experience and relationships across the district. He doesn’t have any specific issue for an opponent to seize on, other than his age.

However, times have changed. Seniority isn’t seen as a positive by some of the Democratic party electorate. An electorate that demands leaders to fight more and be visible on issues on social media.

If Bronin and Gilchrest don’t jump in, I think Larson is super safe in his seat. If Bronin or Gilchrest takes the plunge, I don’t think we can ignore the prospect of a good, competitive race.

It will be interesting to see what happens. I will keep updated on the race and provide updates as needed. I think no matter what, it’ll be an interesting race that everyone should pay attention to.

Thanks for Reading!