Republican Ryan Fazio heads for the stage with his fiancée Amy Orser after earning his party’s nomination for Governor at the Connecticut Republican Convention on May 16, 2026, at Mohegan Sun. Source: Mark Mirko at Connecticut Public

Overview

State Sen. Ryan Fazio (R-Greenwich) leads a Republican slate of statewide challengers in November, facing a difficult challenge in a state dominated by Democrats in both the legislature and statewide.

Republicans have not won a statewide race in Connecticut since Governor Jodi Rell’s 63-35 landslide victory in 2006. Republicans have not won one of Connecticut’s row offices since 1994, when Republican Chris Burnham defeated Democratic incumbent Joseph Suggs Jr in a 53-45 victory for Treasurer.

The State GOP dominated the governor’s office from 1994 to 2010. Since 2010, Republicans have had numerous close races, including three consecutive governor’s races decided by less than 4 points in 2010, 2014, and 2018. In 2016, Republicans managed an 18-18 tie in the State Senate, and only a 72-79 deficit in the State House.

We covered in our State Senate Ratings Forecast last month how these numbers have dwindled in past cycles, where Democrats now hold supermajorities in both chambers of the Connecticut General Assembly and every statewide office. How do Republicans gain back some relevance in the state? It starts with the statewide slate, notably with the candidate leading the ticket. We will go through a brief biography of Fazio, and then discuss if he has a chance in November.

Let’s get started!

Fazio Personal Background

Ryan Fazio was born in Norwalk and grew up in Greenwich, where he graduated from Greenwich High School in 2008. He later earned a BA in Economics from Northwestern University in 2012. He is a known New York sports fan.

Fazio’s professional background includes time in the private sector as a former renewable energy professional and shipping professional. The company is a large ethanol biorefinery facility where he managed commercial operations, logistics, and market risks. The company processed, stored, shipped, and traded energy worldwide. Fazio also worked at a small venture capital firm that invests in small and medium-sized businesses, where he advises their management to help them grow. He resigned from the firm in February to devote himself full time to his gubernatorial campaign.

The senator has also spent several years volunteering at an inner-city charter school. Fazio served on the leadership of the Associate Council of the KIPP Charter school network. Locally, he has volunteered for Greenwich United Way and Meals on Wheels.

Political Background

State Sen. Ryan Fazio (R-Greenwich) has made a rapid rise in Connecticut politics. At 36, he will be the youngest major party nominee for Governor in the country. In addition, he is the youngest candidate to win the Republican Party endorsement since John Rowland won the endorsement in the 1990 Governor’s race.

Fazio won 92% of the convention vote in May after a scandal derailed frontrunner Erin Stewart. Many expected him to face a tough primary in August against Stewart, but the scandal caused many Republicans to coalesce around him.

Fazio, like many Greenwich politicians, got his start in politics as a member of Greenwich’s Representative Town Meeting, where he served in District 12, winning his first term in 2019. In 2020, he won the Republican Party endorsement in the 36th State Senate seat to face Democratic Incumbent Alex Kasser. Fazio lost narrowly 49-51.

However, in 2021, Fazio received an unexpected opportunity after Kasser resigned, triggering a special election. He won the special election 50-48 against Democrat Alexis Gevanter. In 2022, Fazio won his first full-term by a mere 89 votes in a 50.1-49.9 victory against Democrat Trevor Crow. In 2024, Fazio faced heavy spending and a difficult challenge from Democrat Nick Simmons, resulting in one of the most expensive state legislative contests in state history. Even though Kamala Harris carried his district by a 58-41 margin, Fazio won 52-48, his best performance yet.

Main Campaign Issues

When Fazio ran in the special election for his State Senate seat in 2021, he named public safety as his most important campaign priority. He followed up with reducing taxes, cost of electricity, and improving access to health care through state regulation improvements. He also wanted to reduce state control over local school and town planning and zoning.

His gubernatorial campaign hits on many of the same points. Fazio, a ranking member of the Energy & Technology Committee in the state legislature, had focused a lot of his campaign on the state’s high energy costs. Fazio argues that Democrats’ policies have led to high electric rates imposing $1 billion in ‘public benefits” onto our residents. Fazio’s plan to cut electrical bills by 20% is to eliminate the public benefits charge, expand natural gas capacity, cut renewable energy subsidies, limit government contracts, and end “inefficient programs” on electric vehicles such as the EV Charging Program and the heat pump installation subsidy.

Fazio, who voted against last year’s passage of HB 8002, a reworked housing bill that would increase the state’s housing supply, was asked at a forum how he would implement the new law he opposed. Fazio said he would focus on cost controls, adding housing supply, and working to respect local control in housing construction.

He also offered a plan to ease CT’s property tax burden. Connecticut’s cities and towns rely heavily on property tax as a major revenue stream. Fazio did not give specific fiscal projections for his plan. A main point of his plan is to tie Connecticut’s chief operating grant for local schools to the rate of inflation and to cap municipalities’ ability to boost local taxes by 2% or the inflation rate (whichever is greater), saying the legislature should not pay for those directives out of the state budget.

The Lamont campaign told the CT Mirror that Fazio and other minority Republicans in the State Senate did not offer a plan to balance state finances and remain cap-compliant within the fiscal guardrails. Fazio argued his plan is achievable by spending less, specifically on Medicaid benefits for undocumented children and allowing the state’s universities and community college system to hold huge reserves. He also added that he could channel millions annually by curbing or ending longstanding tax breaks for nonprofit universities and hospitals.

On immigration, Fazio is in favor of reversing Connecticut’s sanctuary state policy, the 2019 Trust Act, which restricts state and local law enforcement from cooperating or communicating with the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Fazio says the issue is that law enforcement should have discretion over people who are here illegally with Class C, D, and E felonies and misdemeanors, and the current law prevents the state from working with federal authorities. He also aims to cut hundreds of millions of dollars he says are being spent on “illegal immigration programs“.

Fazio has proposed overhauling the 2020 police accountability legislation, which he says led to a surge of violence. Fazio hopes to restore standard enforcement and proactive policing capabilities.

Does Fazio have a Chance in November?

During his 2024 campaign, Fazio spent most of his campaign avoiding mentioning Trump in any capacity. If a voter asked how he voted in the previous three presidential elections, Fazio politely declined. The strategy worked out well for Fazio, who won many voters who voted for Kamala Harris in the concurrent presidential election.

While running in the primary for Governor, Fazio said during an interview, “I would love the President’s endorsement.” Fazio stated, I have a great deal of respect for his public service and his willingness to step up.” During a statewide campaign, Fazio will have a lot more trouble distancing himself from Trump. His opponents will be airing that quote all throughout election season.

During his 2024 re-election bid for the State Senate, Fazio focused on bipartisanship and on local and state issues. This is something doable in a local race, much harder to do when you’re the party’s candidate for Governor. It’s a difficult needle to thread.

To broaden his appeal, Fazio will likely have to reassure moderate and independent voters on issues where Connecticut’s electorate differs from the national Republican Party. Fazio has said he supports the status quo on Connecticut’s existing laws protecting abortion access, but he will need to offer some other core issues against Connecticut’s blue-leaning electorate.

He could also emphasize how he will have a Democratic legislature in both the State House and State Senate, and how he intends to work with them to solve the state’s issues. A similar approach has been used by Republican governors including Phil Scott, Charlie Baker, and Larry Hogan. But a charged Democratic electorate in November is unlikely to have similar sentiments in a midterm election against a rather unpopular Donald Trump.

The general election opponent is also important to any path Fazio has in November. One would think, and some Republicans agree, that they would rather face State Rep. Josh Elliott than Governor Ned Lamont in November. The two democrats face off in a primary on August 11th. Lamont is heavily favored, but Elliott has been making gains in recent polling. If Elliott is the Democratic nominee, his more progressive and ambitious platform may allow Fazio a better contrast in the general election. Elliott supported calls to abolish police departments during the 2020 debate over policing, a message that will also be on the air everywhere if Elliott bests Lamont in the primary.

Josh Elliott is also known as one of the most left-leaning members in the legislature, but is also not well-known to a majority of the state’s voters. This would offer an opportunity for Fazio’s campaign to define him quickly. Also without Lamont, Fazio can compete for the Fairfield County base that has heavily split-ticketed for legislative races in past cycles.

If Fazio faces Lamont, the most likely scenario, he will have a lot more trouble trying to define Lamont as the two-term governor. He would have to attack him on the issues, while Lamont can easily point to his accomplishments over his time in office. Also, voters see Lamont as pragmatic and likeable, a difficult quality to change voters’ opinions on.

Conclusion

In any scenario, the Democratic nominee will be heavily favored in November. Fazio has a tough challenge ahead in November. He qualified for public financing earlier this year, and will have an $18,000,000 grant to spend in the general election. How he decides to spend his grant money will be important for leading the Republican slate.

In the 2022 elections, some voters split-ticket on other statewide offices. The best-performing Republican by margin was State Rep. Harry Arora, who lost by 7 to Democrat Erick Russell in the race for Treasurer. In the Governor’s race, Ned Lamont beat Republican Bob Stefanowski by a larger 56-43 margin.

Stefanowski’s 43% is the baseline for Fazio. He will need to do much better in Fairfield County and the state’s suburbs while also increasing turnout in Republican areas.

Whether Fazio can exceed recent Republican performances will largely depend on his ability to appeal to independent and moderate suburban voters while navigating the national political environment. Even under the most favorable circumstances, Connecticut’s Democratic lean means Republicans enter the race as clear underdogs.

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