State Rep. Pat Dillon (right) at a debate in the Coogan Pavilion on July 28th, 2026, with one of her two opponents, Justin Farmer (left). Credit to Paul Bass | New Haven Independent

Overview

Welcome to the CT Election Guide’s August 11th Ultimate Primary Guide.

In Part 2 of the guide, I will cover primaries in the state legislature. Read Part 1 if you are interested in the primaries for Governor and Congress.

There are a number of primaries to cover.

I will also give a rating for each race and a prediction of who I think will emerge victorious on the 11th. There are several competitive races on the ballot, so expect some fascinating results.

Let’s get started!

Voting Information

Per state rules, Connecticut is a closed primary state. This means only registered voters of that party can vote in a primary election on August 11th. In Connecticut, a plurality of voters are registered unaffiliated (about 42.2% as of 2025); that proportion of state voters will be unable to vote in the election. However, unaffiliated voters have until August 10th at noon to register with a party, if they plan to vote on primary day.

If a voter wants to switch parties to vote in a primary (From Democratic to Republican, or vice versa), they had to do so by May 11th. If a voter wanted to vote during early voting and they are unaffiliated, they had until July 31st at Noon. A new voter can file a voter application in person with the registrar of voters in their town by noon on the business day prior to the day they want to vote.

In Connecticut, only contested primaries take place on the ballot. If a race is uncontested, there is no primary in that district. Due to a Democratic primary for Governor, every registered Democrat in the state can vote in the primary.

There are no statewide primaries for Republicans, as all statewide offices were decided at the May Convention, and no challengers met the requirements or attempted to force a primary. There are primaries in some congressional districts and legislative seats. If you’re a Registered Republican looking to vote, you can use this map to see if you live within the district boundaries. There are primaries in the 4th and 5th Congressional Districts, the 19th State Senate Seat, and the 50th and 71st State House Seats.

Early voting is available for this election. Early voting takes place from August 3rd to August 9th. Extended voting hours will take place on the 4th and 6th.

Monday, August 3rd – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Tuesday, August 4th – 8:00 am to 8:00 pm
Wednesday, August 5th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Thursday, August 6th – 8:00 am to 8:00 pm
Friday, August 7th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Saturday, August 8th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Sunday, August 9th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm

Voters must vote in the assigned early voting location for their town of voter registration. The list of early voting locations can be found here. The majority of the early voting locations are in Town Hall, community centers, or the library.

Absentee ballots are also available for this election. One can request a ballot at the online portal here. Starting this cycle, after a 2024 voting referendum passed, voters no longer need to provide a specific excuse to vote in any election. Voters can request an absentee ballot for any reason. If voters need a paper application for an absentee ballot, use this link and scroll down to print a paper application. The deadline to request an absentee ballot is August 10th.

If you need to hand out an absentee ballot application to someone, please follow the state’s strict rules concerning this action. There are limits on who you can get an absentee ballot application for (immediate family), and the number of ballots you can request.

CT Election Guide Race Rating System

These ratings represent my assessment of each race based on available polling, fundraising, endorsements, campaign activity, geographic strengths, and the overall political environment. They are forecasts—not guarantees—and races can shift before Election Day.

• Solid – Expected margin of 15% or more
• Likely – Expected margin of 8–15%
• Lean – Expected margin of 3–8%
• Toss-Up – Expected margin of less than 3%

State Senate

2nd State Senate District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Doug McCrory (D)

Candidates: Sen. Doug McCrory (Inc.) vs Maryam Khan vs Ayana Taylor

Type of Primary: Incumbent vs Challenger

Background and Candidates

Incumbent State Sen. Doug McCrory (D-Hartford) faces two challengers for renomination in this deep blue District that contains parts of Hartford, Windsor, and Bloomfield for a sixth 2-year term. State Rep. Maryam Khan (D-Windsor) and Windsor Board of Education Chair Ayana Taylor. Khan won the party endorsement in May at the district convention and will be on Row A of the ballot. Taylor ran against McCrory in the 2024 primary, where she lost by a 32-60 margin.

McCrory, who has been a longtime state legislator, was first elected to the State House in 2004. He served for 11 years before winning a special election to the 2nd State Senate seat in 2017. Though he handily won his primary two years prior, McCrory has since found himself as the subject of a federal criminal investigation.

The grand jury investigated the millions of taxpayer dollars McCrory steered towards a non-profit in his district. An audit showed that McCrory directed how one of the nonprofit, Blue Hills Civic Association, spent the majority of the money allocated. He also told them not to tell the state about money stolen through a fraudulent wire transfer. McCrory was also investigated for the relationship he had with the leader of some of the nonprofits, Sonserae Cicero.

Khan and Taylor are running against McCrory due to his scandals. Khan said during the convention, “The district is ready for strong leadership and possibly new leadership, but regardless, leadership that’s not distracted.” Ayana Taylor has said her campaign is centered on integrity and trust. Both candidates have also brought their backgrounds as a campaign tool. Taylor as the chair of the Windsor Board of Education, and Khan as an “active educator, mother and focused leader”.

The three candidates are aligned on most major policy issues, though one notable exception is on school choice and education funding. McCrory advocates for school choice (charter, magnet, etc), while Khan remains firmly opposed. Taylor has expressed some skepticism on school choice, but supports quality alternatives.

Race Rating

Though Khan has the party endorsement, it’s not unprecedented for an incumbent to lose a party convention, but in Connecticut it is rare. A few incumbents have won without the party endorsement before. In 2024, in the 15th State House Seat (which overlaps with this district), State Rep. Bobby Gibson lost the party endorsement, but won his primary 70-30.

Though the FBI investigation has brought scrunity to McCrory, Khan and Taylor will be splitting the anti-McCrory vote. In addition, both Khan and Taylor are from Windsor, meaning they both will likely be splitting their home base. Taylor won Windsor in her 2024 matchup against McCrory, but got swamped by large margins in the Hartford and Bloomfield sections of the district.

Khan does have grassroots support and is one of the two primary candidates this cycle supported by CT DSA. However, i’m skeptical she can win over the large older black voter contingent in the district. Taylor has good name recognition from her previous run in the seat, but her base of support overlaps with Khan. At the end of the day, Khan and Taylor both will likely split the opposition vote, and will struggle in McCrory’s base of votes in Bloomfield and Hartford. So I give the edge to McCrory.

Race Rating: Likely McCrory

13th State Senate District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Jan Hochadel (D)

Candidates: Jack Fazzino vs Jim Jinks

Type of Primary: Open Seat

Background and Candidates

State Sen. Jan Hochadel announced her retirement late last year after only two terms in the State Senate. This district has had close races within single digits the last two cycles, though Democrats are expected to easily retain the seat this cycle. State Rep. Jonathan “Jack” Fazzino faces off against Cheshire Town Council member Jim Jinks. The district contains Meriden and parts of Cheshire, Middlefield, and Middletown.

Fazzino won the party endorsement in May. He currently represents the 83rd State House seat, which he first won a narrow victory in 2022 by a 50.6-49.4 margin. Fazzino works as an attorney. Jinks on the other hand works is marketing. He is presenting himself as more of an “outsider” looking to bring change to Hartford. Jinks was first elected to the Cheshire Town Council in 2019. Jinks ran for the State House in 2020 against Rep. Craig Fishbein in the 90th state house seat, where he lost by 7 votes out of over 14,000 votes casted.

Both candidates support raising taxes on the wealthy, protecting residents from aggressive ICE tactics, and state investment into education. Both are similar on most major policy issues, though broadly Jinks has placed himself to the left of Fazzino. Jinks is supporting progressive challenger Josh Elliott in the governor’s race, while Fazzino supports incumbent Governor Ned Lamont. Jinks argues that Fazzino is a “political insider” and is benefiting from outside PAC money. Fazzino says Jinks’ argument is “bad faith, desperate attack…” noting the outside group is spending with no knowledge from him, or coordination.

Fazzino is running on his record as a state legislator, including education funding for Meriden and Cheshire schools. Jinks focuses his platform on affordability, shared values and civil rights. Both have noted their success running in a region of the state that is more of a toss-up in federal and local races.

Race Rating

Both candidates will likely do well in their hometowns. Fazzino in Meriden, and Jinks will do well in Cheshire. Fazzino does have name recognition in Cheshire as his district contains part of the town. Meriden has the largest number of Democrats in the district, which will likely benefit Fazzino.

Jinks’ progressive challenge will have a fair amount of support. Jinks has the support of many town council members in Cheshire. Fazzino has a number of prominent endorsements with strong support from Middletown officials, including Middletown Mayor Gene Nocera, State Rep. Kai Belton and State Rep. Brandon Chafee. Fazzino also has the backing of the party endorsement, Working Families Party, and Connecticut AFL-CIO. In addition, statewide officials, Attorney General William Tong, Treasurer Erick Russell and Comptroller Sean Scanlon have backed Fazzino.

Though Jinks will have a good performance in Cheshire, Fazzino’s more establishment backing and prominent labor organizations will likely win out in an older Democratic electorate.

Race Rating: Solid Fazzino

19th State Senate District – Republican Primary

Incumbent: Catherine Osten (D)

Candidates: Jason Guidone vs Mike France

Type of Primary: Opposing Party Nomination

Background and Candidates

Incumbent Democrat State Sen. Catherine Osten has managed to comfortably hold this Harris +6 seat since 2012. She ran ahead of the national ticket, winning 57-43 in 2024. Osten is one of the more moderate Democrats in the State Legislature. The 19th State Senate represents Columbia, Franklin, Lebanon, Hebron, Ledyard, Lisbon, Marlborough, Norwich, Sprague, and part of Montville.

Osten is widely favored in the Fall, but two Republicans, Jason Guidone and Mike France, seek to deny Osten an 8th term in the State Senate.

Guidone was the 2024 Republican nominee and is making a second bid for the seat. He is a former ESPN executive who lives in Hebron. Guidone is running on a standard Republican platform of lowering costs, protecting taxpayers, backing police and public safety, and putting families first. He states on his website that he is “not a career politician”.

France was the 2022 and 2024 Republican nominee for the 2nd Congressional District. He lost both races by wide margins to Rep. Joe Courtney. France is a former State Representative who served from 2015 to 2023 in the 42nd State House seat. He spent two decades in the Navy, before working as an engineer at the Submarine base. France is running on reducing government spending, ensuring a skilled workforce for the defense industry, and telling “people the truth”.

France was originally running for the 2nd Congressional District for a third try, though he dropped out of the race citing internal discontent with local Republican leaders. He said one of the reasons he entered the race was he felt he had a better chance to win in November than Guidone due to his experience and resume. Guidone has focused his attacks on France’s record in the legislature.

Race Rating

With both candidates not having much of a difference on policy, this is a race more based on perceived electability. Guidone has the party endorsement and a large support of the delegate base. Guidone got 77% of convention delegates, and France’s falling out with some local GOP officials likely does not help.

However, France does have more name ID due to his runs for Congress. The question is if voters will run it back, or go with France. I expect it to be a win for Guidone due to local support.

Race Rating: Likely Guidone

State House

4th State House District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Julio Concepcion (D)

Candidates: Julio Concepcion (Inc.) vs Venice Sotomayor

Type of Primary: Incumbent vs Challenger

Candidates and Background

In this deep-blue Hartford-based seat, Democratic incumbent Julio Concepcion faces Chef Venice Sotomayor. Concepcion first won his seat in a special election in 2018 after Incumbent Rep. Angel Arce resigned from the seat due to scandal.

This was one of two primaries in the state affected by mistakes made by the Secretary of State’s office. The CT Supreme Court ruled that Sotomayor could be on the ballot after Concepcion sought to have her petitions thrown out due to an administrative error. The CT Supreme Court ruled that Sotomayor should not be blamed for a mistake made by election officials. It’s common in Connecticut for incumbents to try to challenge signature petitions to prevent primaries. Sotomayor’s lawyer Alex Taubes accused Concepcion of trying to prevent the election unfairly.

As far as the race goes, there has been almost no coverage whatsoever. Concepcion does not have a campaign website or seem to be actively campaigning. Sotomayor has been running her campaign mostly on Facebook. She is running a challenge broadly on change and shaking up the status quo. Many of her posts lack much detail, and all her videos are just images with music of nothing specific. In one of her posts, she does list a few issues she’s running on; Real solutions, supporting business in underserved neighborhoods, affordable rentals/housing stability, and ensuring people don’t have to pick between their health and fresh food.

Race Rating

Sotomayor has a picture of Rep. John Larson holding one of her mailers, and has a graphic that Larson stands with her campaign. Though not the most formal of endorsements (and nothing says Larson explicitly endorsed Sotomayor), the reason for any involvement from Larson could be the fact that Concepcion endorsed Bronin over Larson in the congressional primary.

With a district with one of the lowest turnout rates in the state and a lack of active campaigning from Concepcion, Sotomayor could get a surprise upset. However, as the incumbent with the party endorsement, and Sotomayor relatively unknown, Concepcion remains favored.

Race Rating: Solid Concepcion

10th State House District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Henry Genga (D)

Candidates: Angie Parkinson vs Tyron Harris

Type of Primary: Open Seat

Background and Candidates

Longtime Incumbent Henry Genga decided to retire after 20 years in office. Genga is currently the oldest member of the State Legislature. He leaves behind a deep-blue Open Harris +38 seat based in East Hartford.

Two candidates face off, Angie Parkinson and Tyron Harris. Parkinson is an East Hartford Town Councilor, who also spent 25 years teaching social studies. Harris serves as the chair of the East Hartford Board of Education. He also serves as the town’s Human Resources Director.

Parkinson is running on healthcare for all, affordability, protecting/strengthening public education, tax fairness, fair wages, and protecting rights and democracy. Harris lists his campaign priorities as lowering the cost of living, strong public schools, affordable healthcare, prosperity/good jobs, and safe/united communities.

Race Rating

Parkinson won the party endorsement in the district. She also has the endorsements of Connecticut Working Families Party, AFL-CIO, American Federation of Teachers (AFT), and Building Trades.

Harris has the endorsement of East Hartford Mayor Connor Martin. Both candidates are prominent and are elected officials. Parkinson has a slight edge due to institutional support, but Harris should not be underestimated, holding the mayor’s endorsement. This race will likely be very close.

Race Rating: Lean Parkinson

31st State House District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Jill Barry (D)

Candidates: Moise “Moses” Carelus vs Anthony DiLizia

Type of Primary: Open Democratic Nomination, Incumbent running in Fall as Independent

Background and Candidates

Now why the long type of primary description. It’s a bit complicated. Out of nowhere, moderate Democrat State Rep. Jill Barry lost her party convention for her district by a large margin to Moses Carelus. Barry, who is one of the most conservative Democrats in the caucus, has found herself on the wrong side of progressives in her Glastonbury district who quietly saw her as vulnerable, as the district has shifted rapidly to the left in the Trump era. Barry’s voting with Republicans on a gun-safety measure, voting against the state budget, against paid family and medical leave, among other priorities, made her vulnerable.

Barry was caught off guard at the convention; as a single-town district, the party endorsement was open for any Democrat in the 31st State House Seat to cast a delegate vote. Organization took place behind the scenes without much attention, as to not alert Barry. We’ll cover more of this later, but Barry is cross-endorsed by Republicans, running as an Independent in the Fall after electing not to run in the primary, and has been on the campaign trail with Republican nominee for Governor Ryan Fazio in a Harris +25 seat.

With Barry not running in the primary, and Carelus holding the party endorsement, Glastonbury Town Councilor Anthony DiLizia decided to petition to jump into the race. DiLizia, an Army veteran, also serves as the executive director of a healthcare non-profit that delivers affirming/compassionate healthcare for the LGBTQIA+ community. Carelus, a former teacher and soccer coach, was recruited by a coalition of Democrats unhappy with Barry.

Carelus’ priorities include funding public education, affordability, holding Eversource accountable, and supporting Glastonbury’s future/standing up for Glastonbury’s values. DiLizia’s priorities include protecting CT from Trump’s policies, delivering lower costs, funding schools, supporting seniors, defending women’s rights, and fighting for affordable healthcare.

Race Rating

Though Carelus has the party endorsement and the early start to the campaign. DiLizia is well-known as an elected official, and petitioning indicates a level of baseline support. Also the convention was with a small group of voters, meaning that DiLizia might have a larger name ID than Carelus. However, due to Carelus’ early start, I would give the edge to him in this race, but DiLizia will make this a close race.

Race Rating: Likely Carelus

50th State House District – Republican Primary

Incumbent: Pat Boyd (D)

Candidates: Jadon MacCormack vs Anthony “Tony” Emilio

Type of Primary: Opposing Party Nomination

Background and Candidates

The most competitive general election district on the docket tonight with a primary. Incumbent Democrat Rep. Pat Boyd was unopposed last cycle in this seat based in Eastern Connecticut that Kamala Harris carried by a narrow 50-48 margin. Republicans were hoping to put a good nominee in this competitive seat.

This seat has garnered the most attention of any legislative primary in the state, for all the wrong reasons. Republicans at the district party convention nominated religious podcaster and political newcomer Jadon MacCormack as their nominee. Republicans did not do much vetting of MacCormack, so when MacCormack started posting about “Happy Straight Month” and calls for an “anti-pride month”, attention came to his previous posts. One of which included sharing an image of a noose in reaction to a gay marriage story, along with other horrid views such as saying women should not hold political power, and questioning the Holocaust death toll.

After the posts came out, Republicans immediately condemned MacCormack for his comments and told him to withdraw from the race. Unfortunately for them, MacCormack seemed to be enjoying the attention and stood by his “biblical beliefs. He went onto the radio show,  WTIC News/Talk 1080’s “Reese on the Radio” program, where he called for the government to put people to death who are “sodomites”, a comment that got national attention.

With MacCormack refusing to withdraw, and spending his time blasting Republican leaders for condemning him. Republicans scrambled to find a candidate to put on the ballot with days left until the petition deadline. Pomfret Businessman Anthony Emilio joined the race in light of MacCormack’s comments, saying “That’s not who our party is, and so I think it’s important that he – that someone runs against him and he loses.”Emilio, with efforts from the local and state GOP, rapidly gathered the signatures needed before the deadline. Emilio wants to focus on other issues. He said he wants the focus to be on Republican efforts to shrink government.

Race Rating

Republicans are in an awkward position, as MacCormack is the endorsed candidate on the ballot. With attention on the race in June and July, the hope for the GOP is that enough attention was put onto the race that Republicans voting in the primary know not to vote for MacCormack. The quick scramble, and Emilio having basically every Republican in the district, state Republican, and neighboring Republican state Reps and Senators’ endorsement should be enough to put him well ahead of MacCormack. Republicans do not want to be associated with MacCormack in any fashion, and having him as a general election candidate would not help.

Race Rating: Solid Emilio

71st State House District – Republican Primary

Incumbent: William Pizzuto (R)

Candidates: William “Bill” Pizzuto (Inc) vs Michael Grosso

Type of Primary: Incumbent vs Challenger

Background and Candidates

Rep. Bill Pizzuto (R-Middlebury) is the only Republican incumbent facing a challenge in the Legislature today. Pizzuto, who first won his seat in a 2022 special election, faces Waterbury Alderman Michael Grosso. The district contains all of Middlebury and part of Waterbury.

Pizzuto has won the last two general elections of this seat uncontested in a seat Donald Trump won 54-45. Pizzuto is a retired administrator who worked at UConn. Grosso, who is his first term as a Waterbury Alderman, is a driver groundsman and equipment operator.

Grosso has gone after Pizzuto for putting language in a bill that blocked a major warehouse development in Waterbury instead of letting local officials decide on the next steps for the project. He is running to ensure that local officials and residents have more say over projects instead of state officials. Grosso is also running on rejecting the status quo.

Grosso is running on lower taxes, more accountability, and economic growth. Pizzuto’s campaign platform also calls for fighting for lower property taxes, driving down energy prices, holding the line on spending, and backing emergency responders.

Race Rating

This should be an interesting race. I am unsure how much Republican primary voters have been focused on the warehouse project, or how they perceive Pizzuto’s reasons for blocking it. But local issues can be very salient in primaries such as this one.

Due to holding the party endorsement and being the incumbent , I give the edge to Pizzuto, though it’ll be interesting to see how each candidate performs in their hometown.

Race Rating: Likely Pizzuto

92nd State House District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Pat Dillon (D)

Candidates: Pat Dillon (Inc) vs Eli Sabin vs Justin Farmer

Type of Primary: Incumbent vs Challengers

Background and Candidates

Longtime State Rep. Pat Dillon faces two challengers in former New Haven Alder Eli Sabin and former Hamden Legislative Council Member Justin Farmer.

Dillon is the longest-serving House member seeking reelection this cycle. Dillon was first elected all the way back in 1984, when Ronald Reagan was on the ballot for a second term. 57 votes were all that separated Dillon from her first bid for the seat in 1982 against Republican incumbent Rep. Rosalind Berman. She later beat Berman in a rematch in 1984 by a 52-48 margin.

No Republican was able to recreate Berman’s unique coalition, as Dillon would win 80-20 in 1986 and never face a close race. The district is one of the most Democratic in the state, voting for Kamala Harris by a massive 84-13 margin. Dillon faced a primary once in her 42-year tenure before this year, in 2010 when she beat Sergio Rodriguez by a comfortable 66-34 margin.

Dillon, who is 77, faces primary challengers that are decades younger than her. Eli Sabin, 26, a former Alder who resigned in January to launch his campaign. He moved to Westville to establish residency. He represented Ward 1 (which contains Yale University) and Ward 7 (Downtown and East Rock) during his 6 years on the board. The district contains part of Ward 3, and Wards 23, 24, 25, 26. Sabin is running on generational change, casting his campaign as about “new energy” needed in the party.

Farmer, 32, a former three-term Hamden city councilmember, is a founding member of Connecticut DSA. He is one of two primary candidates backed by CT DSA this cycle (Maryam Khan is the other). He works as an environmental consultant. Farmer also casts his challenge on generational change with “different takes on what kinds of new leaders will emerge“.

Candidates agree on major issues, though Farmer positions himself to both Sabin and Dillon’s left as a DSA member. All three candidates are progressives who said they will push back against the Trump administration. Candidates are also running on affordability concerns and efforts to rein ICE.

Dillon is running on her record and ability to bring funding to the district, while Sabin and Farmer argue that the current political environment demands change.

Race Rating

With three candidates running, this will divide the vote up quite a bit. I believe that Sabin and Farmer will divide the anti-Dillon vote, leading Dillon to win with a large plurality or close to 50% of the vote. Neither Sabin or Farmer have been running to minimize the other candidate, so both will bring their bases to the polls. Farmer’s support from the DSA, for example, will give him a solid floor in the race.

Pat Dillon has the endorsements of the local Democratic Party with the party endorsement, its town chair, unions, advocacy groups, and a large number of elected officials. Sabin has the endorsements of a number of ward committee members but more notably New Haven Mayor Justin Elicker.

Due to Sabin and Farmer splitting the opposition vote, I expect Dillon to win somewhat comfortably tonight.

Race Rating: Likely Dillon

97th State House District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Al Paolillo

Candidates: Leland Moore vs Wildaliz Bermudez

Type of Primary: Open Seat

Background and Candidates

After Longtime State Sen. Martin Looney announced his retirement, it set off a quick game of musical chairs. Incumbent State Rep. Al Paolillo was Looney’s chosen successor. Paolillo faced no challenge for the seat. Paolillo left his State House seat, where two candidates quickly jumped into the race: Morris Cove Alder Leland Moore and Executive Director of New Haven Fair Rent Commission Wildaliz Bermúdez.

Moore, only five months into his first term as Alder, found himself running for a newly open State Representative seat. He won the Ward 18 Alder seat in a Democratic primary by a wide margin last year before easily winning the general election. Moore works as Assistant Attorney General, working under Attorney General William Tong. He has previously worked as a legislative advisor for the Board of Pardons and Paroles and as a staff attorney for the Connecticut Sentencing Commission.

Wildaliz Bermúdez is a former member of the Hartford City Council, where she was elected as part of the Working Families Party. She was on the council for 6 years before resigning to move to New Haven. On the council, she, along with other Working Families members, tried to move the council far left of center on issues such as immigration, tenant rights, police reform, and accountability. As Director of the Fair Rent Commission, Bermúdez operates the system behind the commission, from mediation of conflicts to investigation to educating city residents.

Both Moore and Bermúdez have similar policy positions on major issues. In a radio interview, both agreed on a number of goals such as more local education aid, higher marginal taxes on millionaires, ditching a $45 million+ plan for a pool, reconsidering Yale’s special state-given tax breaks if they cave to the Trump administration, and that the state should pursue stricter regulation of private utilities. Both praised each other’s work in the community during the interview.

Race Rating

Moore won the party endorsement earlier this year. He also has the endorsement of President Pro Tempore of the Sen. Martin Looney and current Rep. Al Paolillo. Moore has also received support from CT AFL-CIO and AFT Connecticut. Moore also recieed the endorsement of his boss, Attorney General William Tong.

Bermúdez has the support of New Haven Mayor Justin Elicker. Notably, the second candidate Elicker has backed, who doesn’t have the party endorsement. Bermúndz also has the support of Former State Rep. Bob Megan and Former Mayor Toni Harp.

Moore seems to have consolidated establishment support and union support, but the endorsement of Elicker is notable for Bermúdez. I believe Moore is favored, but Bermúdez will keep this a competitive race.

Race Rating: Likely Moore

118th State House District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Frank Smith (D)

Candidates: Toni Lombardi vs Chris Saley

Type of Primary: Open Seat

Background and Candidates

Incumbent State Rep. Frank Smith is retiring after three terms in the State House. Smith’s departure in this Milford-based district allowed two Democrats to jump into this open seat: Milford Alderwoman Toni Lombardi and Milford Director of Public Works Chris Saley.

Both candidates’ platforms touch upon similar issues. Lombardi’s platform emphasises public education, tackling the cost of living, and focusing on coastal resiliency, specifically investment in flood mitigation and infrastructure improvements that protect Milford’s shoreline. Saley owns the Bridgewater Restaurant and owns a local real estate development company. His platform focuses on supporting small businesses and encouraging local economic growth, strong schools, affordability, and protecting Milford’s 17+ miles of beaches from chronic erosion (beach resiliency).

Race Rating

Lombardi has the party endorsement. She also has the support of the CT Working Families Party, AFL-CIO, and American Federation of Teachers. Saley has the support of retiring State Rep. Frank Smith

Lombardi’s institutional support should be enough to get her a win here, but Saley could come close with Smith’s endorsement.

Race Rating: Likely Lombardi

Conclusion

Candidates with the party endorsement are still widely favored in Connecticut primaries. Tonight will be a good test to see how much that holds up. Party endorsements in CT lead to wide institutional support from elected officials and labor unions. However, many challengers have chances for upsets tonight, but the focus will likely be on the Democratic incumbents in SD-2 and HD-92, while also seeing what happens in HD-50. There are not too many ideological primaries on the docket, but an opportunity in some districts for change will be watched.

As always, these ratings are forecasts based on the information available before Election Day—not guarantees. I’ll be following the results as they come in tonight and will revisit these predictions afterward to evaluate what I got right, what I got wrong, and what the outcomes reveal about Connecticut politics.

Thanks for Reading!
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If you have a question, tip, corrections, or want to contact me for any reason. Please email contact@ctelectionguide.com

Rep. Josh Elliott celebrates at the state Democratic Convention, Saturday, May 16, 2026, in Hartford, Conn. Credit to: Jessica Hill / CT Mirror

Overview

Welcome to the CT Election Guide’s August 11th Ultimate Primary Guide.

In Part 1 of the guide, I will cover statewide and congressional primaries. In Part 2, I will cover primaries in the state legislature.

There are four primaries to cover. We will start with the Democratic primaries for Governor and the 1st Congressional Distrct. Governor Ned Lamont and Rep. John Larson face challengers for renomination. Than we will cover two Republican primaries where Republican challengers hope to challenge Democratic incumbents in the 4th and 5th Congressional Districts

I will also give a rating for each race and a prediction of who I think will emerge victorious on the 11th. There are several competitive races on the ballot, so expect some fascinating results.

Let’s get started!

Voting Information

Per state rules, Connecticut is a closed primary state. This means only registered voters of that party can vote in a primary election on August 11th. In Connecticut, a plurality of voters are registered unaffiliated (about 42.2% as of 2025); that proportion of state voters will be unable to vote in the election. However, unaffiliated voters have until August 10th at noon to register with a party, if they plan to vote on primary day.

If a voter wants to switch parties to vote in a primary (From Democratic to Republican, or vice versa), they had to do so by May 11th. If a voter wanted to vote during early voting and they are unaffiliated, they had until July 31st at Noon. A new voter can file a voter application in person with the registrar of voters in their town by noon on the business day prior to the day they want to vote.

In Connecticut, only contested primaries take place on the ballot. If a race is uncontested, there is no primary in that district. Due to a Democratic primary for Governor, every registered Democrat in the state can vote in the primary.

There are no statewide primaries for Republicans, as all statewide offices were decided at the May Convention, and no challengers met the requirements or attempted to force a primary. There are primaries in some congressional districts and legislative seats. If you’re a Registered Republican looking to vote, you can use this map to see if you live within the district boundaries. There are primaries in the 4th and 5th Congressional Districts, the 19th State Senate Seat, and the 50th and 71st State House Seats.

Early voting is available for this election. Early voting takes place from August 3rd to August 9th. Extended voting hours will take place on the 4th and 6th.

Monday, August 3rd – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Tuesday, August 4th – 8:00 am to 8:00 pm
Wednesday, August 5th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Thursday, August 6th – 8:00 am to 8:00 pm
Friday, August 7th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Saturday, August 8th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Sunday, August 9th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm

Voters must vote in the assigned early voting location for their town of voter registration. The list of early voting locations can be found here. The majority of the early voting locations are in Town Hall, community centers, or the library.

Absentee ballots are also available for this election. One can request a ballot at the online portal here. Starting this cycle, after a 2024 voting referendum passed, voters no longer need to provide a specific excuse to vote in any election. Voters can request an absentee ballot for any reason. If voters need a paper application for an absentee ballot, use this link and scroll down to print a paper application. The deadline to request an absentee ballot is August 10th.

If you need to hand out an absentee ballot application to someone, please follow the state’s strict rules concerning this action. There are limits on who you can get an absentee ballot application for (immediate family), and the number of ballots you can request.

CT Election Guide Race Rating System

These ratings represent my assessment of each race based on available polling, fundraising, endorsements, campaign activity, geographic strengths, and the overall political environment. They are forecasts—not guarantees—and races can shift before Election Day.

• Solid – Expected margin of 15% or more
• Likely – Expected margin of 8–15%
• Lean – Expected margin of 3–8%
• Toss-Up – Expected margin of less than 3%

Statewide Primaries

Governor – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Ned Lamont

Candidates: Gov. Ned Lamont (Inc.) vs State Rep. Josh Elliott

Type of Primary: Incumbent vs Challenger

2022 Election Result: Lamont +13 – Ned Lamont (D) – 56.0%, Bob Stefanowski (R) – 43.0%

2024 Presidential Results: Harris +14.5 – Kamala Harris (D) – 56.4%, Donald Trump (R) – 41.9%

2026 General Election Rating: Solid D

Background

On March 13th, 2006, a wealthy businessman from Greenwich, Ned Lamont, launched a primary campaign to challenge sitting Senator Joe Lieberman for his seat in the U.S Senate. Lieberman was heavily criticized for his support of the war in Iraq and his close relationship with President Bush at the time. This challenge would start the beginning of Ned Lamont’s prominent place in Connecticut politics.

Lamont’s candidacy at the time became more of a single-issue primary against the War, and Lamont was able to seize the progressive energy of the 2006 cycle, culminating in an upset win over Lieberman in the primary. He later lost the general election that November. Lamont was able to grasp the state’s progressive flank; his challenge to the left of Lieberman was notable in a state that rarely saw contested primaries against incumbents.

Now, two decades later, Lamont, the two-term governor, is attempting a third four-year term in this solidly Democratic state. Lamont now finds himself as part of the “establishment” facing the irony of being challenged to his left by State Rep. Josh Elliott (D-Hamden). The first primary against an incumbent Governor since 1978.

Who is Josh Elliott?

State Rep. Josh Elliott first came into the legislature after winning a seat in the legislature in 2016. Elliott holds a BA from Ithaca College and received a JD from Quinnipiac School of Law. He entered the race before House Speaker Brendan Sharkey announced his retirement. Elliott’s campaign says he is the reason he pushed Sharkey into retirement, which is prominently claimed on his website, though Sharkey disagrees with that assertion in strong terms.

Elliott is a founder of the Progressive caucus in the legislature, which has slowly grown over the last few cycles. Elliott has played a large role in supporting economic and labor protections. Two of the bills he sponsored were for Paid Family & Medical Leave and for Paid Sick Days. He has pushed for Connecticut to be the first state to remove the cost for incarcerated individuals to make phone calls to loved ones. He currently serves as Deputy Speaker and Majority Caucus Co-Chair.

This is not Josh Elliott’s first attempt at higher office. In 2022, Elliott ran for the open Secretary of State race. It did not go so well for him. He was the only candidate who failed to qualify for the ballot at the convention. Elliott was also running to maintain his seat in the legislature during that race. He bowed out, electing not to gather signatures to petition, and ran for re-election to his state house seat. Candidates returning to their state legislative seats around convention time when they don’t do well is common in Connecticut.

However, during Elliott’s second attempt for higher office. Elliott is simultaneously running for both his State House Seat (88th District) and the Governor’s Race. Elliott was noncommittal about his run for governor for most of the cycle. He at one point said he would only challenge Lamont only if he won the party endorsement at the convention, saying he didn’t want to run a Line B candidacy. Earlier this year, however, Elliott decided that he spent so much time on his campaign that he has to see it all the way. He also did not risk losing his House seat, something Elliott said is important to him to help make change in the state.

Elliott successfully raised the $335,000 needed to qualify for public financing. This qualified him for $3.75 million grant. He got the money about 5 weeks before the August primary, leaving him a quick turnaround to get his message on the airwaves. Though he was allowed to run for both his State House seat and Governor at the same time, he could not spend any of his grant money on his State House seat. To avoid any issues with campaign finance rules, Elliott hasn’t even formed a campaign committee for his State House Race, as he plans to spend no money. Elliott doesn’t face any Democratic opposition in the primary and was nominated for another term at the convention for his seat. Though he faces a Republican opponent, Elliott’s 88th State House Seat is one Kamala Harris won 70-28, so he doesn’t need to spend much of anything in the general.

Campaign Issues

Elliott’s campaign has been defined by anger towards Lamont’s refusal to tax the rich more. Progressive anger towards the Governor also increased when Lamont vetoed two bills during the 2025 legislative session. One on affordable housing, and another on benefits for striking workers. Elliott’s vowed that the Governor would face a challenge after those vetoes, and eventually he became the candidate to challenge the Governor. Lamont did pass a version of the affordable housing bill later in 2025, though some argue the bill wasn’t as strong as the initial one. Though many agreed it was still beneficial. Lamont did not pass the bill for striking workers.

Elliott has proposed a similar millionaire tax to Massachusetts, though at it’s core Elliott hopes for a “fair tax structure” that taxes those who make $1 million annually. Elliott also does not support the state’s fiscal guardrails, enacted in 2017 to force the state to pay down pension debt. He believes it should be changed to allow easier investments for infrastructure, investment, and housing. Elliott has also proposed less reliance on local property taxes.

One of Elliott’s more aggressive proposals is to take on Eversource by allowing towns to individually own their utility infrastructure. To allow a public option that can allow municipalities cheaper rates, or for towns to form or join electric utilities in an effort to cut Eversource’s power away. The governor has argued that this proposal will cost tens of billions of dollars that the state does not have.

Elliott has also attacked the Governor in more personal terms, saying “his campaign is where good ideas go to die”. He also has advertisements on air attacking Lamont’s wealth and how his family has been rich for generations. Due to his personal wealth, Elliott says Lamont cannot understand the state’s affordability. He also heavily critiqued the governor for taking credit for policies passed by the legislature, saying the Governor didn’t actually do anything. “That’s what a billionaire does. They take other people’s ideas and say ‘Well, this was his all along.’” Elliott said. He also called the Governor “dangerously naive” during the debate, and said Lamont’s campaign is the “Temu version” of his. Elliott did attack Lamont as a billionaire a few times, though the very wealthy Ned Lamont is not known as a billionaire specifically.

Ned Lamont spent the majority of the cycle ignoring Josh Elliott, trying to avoid pushing attention to his challenger. However, Elliott slowly gained some momentum and qualified for a primary with 25% of convention delegates. Lamont has had to be more on the defensive end.

The Governor has touted his accomplishments during his tenure as Governor, including a minimum wage increase, actions to replace SNAP benefits, and investments in early childhood education. The governor has also emphasized fiscal responsibility as he has focused on paying off the state’s heavy pension debt. Lamont, in the last few weeks, has ramped up his attacks on Elliott, specifically at the debate, dismissing Elliott as someone full of sound bites and no accomplishments. In the final week of the campaign, Lamont has started to go more negative on Elliott, attacking him for missed votes during his campaign.

Race Rating

Nationally, primary season this cycle shows there is an energy in the Democratic Party for more progressive policy and overall change. In addition, any person running for a third governor term is likely to face some level of opposition for “overstaying their welcome”. I believe this race will be closer than many people expect.

Governor Lamont is favored in this race. I see him winning by around 20 points. I do believe Elliott will win Hamden and likely New Haven. He will maintain steady support around the state, with a few pockets of winning towns. It’ll be interesting to see how Elliott does in the Farmington Valley, with a lot of upper-middle-class Democratic voters showing more progressive bona fides; Elliott may be able to get some strong performances in towns like West Hartford, Glastonbury, Farmington, and Avon. Connecticut hasn’t had too many primaries with a clear “establishment vs progressive” battle. The closest was the 2018 Lt Gov Democratic primary between former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz and labor organizer Eva Zimmerman. Bysiewicz won 62-38, but Zimmerman was commended for a great performance against a longtime statewide figure. I think Elliott will have a similar performance and pattern: outright winning a few towns, but holding a steady 35%-40% in a majority of towns.

Lamont holds very strong support from the legislature, though a few members of the progressive caucus back Elliott, including State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest and State Rep. Laurie Sweet. This is the only race with a substantial amount of recent polling (for a Connecticut race at least). The latest poll from Impact CT had Lamont leading Elliott 48-21. A decrease for Lamont, who led their earlier poll 58-20, but notably didn’t show much of an increase for Elliott. Many voters are undecided, and I suspect many of those voters will go to Elliott.

The governor does have a few things in his favor; all polling indicates a stark age divide. Elliott does very well with younger voters; Lamont dominates with older voters. The latter come out at much higher rates in late summer primaries. In addition, Lamont still remains popular with Democratic primary voters overall, holding a 63% favorable, 20% unfavorable rating in the same poll.

Most polling has shown Lamont in the 48-55% range, though Elliott has steadily risen from 7% in the first UNH poll in November to 23% in the one from Late June. Lamont led 53-23 in that poll. A final poll from Sacred Heart University/WFSB/CT Insider showed Lamont with a massive 57-22 margin over Elliott.

Lamont is heavily favored, but don’t count out a strong performance from Josh Elliott. An outright win would break CT politics, but stranger things have happened.

Race Rating: Solid Lamont
Prediction: Lamont +20 (Lamont 60%, Elliott 40%)

Congressional Primaries

1st Congressional District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: John Larson

Candidates: Rep. John Larson (Inc.) vs Luke Bronin vs Jillian Gilchrest vs Ruth Fortune

Type of Primary: Incumbent vs Challengers

2024 General Election Result: Larson +28.3 – John Larson (D) – 63.1%, Jim Griffin(R) – 34.8%

2024 Presidential Results: Harris +22.9 – Kamala Harris (D) – 60.6%, Donald Trump (R) – 37.7%

2026 General Election Rating: Solid D

Background

For the first time in modern state history, an Incumbent member of the U.S. House of Representatives faces a battle for renomination. Connecticut was the last state to adopt legally regulated primaries, which passed in the legislature in 1955. However, this method only allowed a challenge based on convention delegates, not signatures. In 2003, the General Assembly ruled that candidates can petition their way onto the ballot if they fail to meet the convention delegate threshold.

Rep. John Larson of East Hartford has had nothing much to worry about electorally after he won his primary in 1998 in an open seat by a close 46-42 margin against Secretary of State Miles Rapoport. A primary challenger has never made the ballot against Larson, though former Capitol Hill Staffer Muad Hrezi made a solid attempt in 2022. He fundraised over $500,000, but did not gather enough delegates or signatures to make the ballot.

Larson, a mainstay of Connecticut politics, has held top positions in the House of Representatives during his nearly three-decade-long tenure, including a stint as the Chair of the House Democratic Caucus from 2009 to 2013. His main issue has been Social Security, an issue he has worked hard to promote with his landmark bill Social Security 2100 Act.

The congressman now faces three challengers looking to deny him a 15th term in Congress.

Candidates

Larson’s most prominent challenger is Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin. Bronin, who was the mayor of the capital city from 2016 to 2024, won his 2015 Democratic primary by knocking out the incumbent Mayor Pedro Segarra by a 55-45 margin. He easily won his 2015 and 2019 mayoral races in a deep-blue city.

Bronin is known for his high-profile background. A BA and JD from Yale University, Rhodes Scholar, a deployment in Afghanistan where he worked on the US Military Anti-Corruption task force. He was Deputy Assistant Secretary of Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes at the US Department of the Treasury during the Obama Administration. Before launching his mayoral campaign, he served as Chief Legal Counsel to Governor Dannel Malloy.

Larson’s other opponents include State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest (D-West Hartford) and Hartford Board of Education member Ruth Fortune.

Jillian Gilchrest entered the political scene in 2018 after she ousted 12-term incumbent State Rep. Andy Fleischmann in a Democratic Primary in a 52-48 victory. Gilchrest is known as one of the most progressive members in the Connecticut Legislature, championing reproductive freedom and establishing Connecticut’s paid family and medical leave program. Before she entered state politics, she worked in women’s health, safety, and social justice organizations in leadership and advocacy roles. She also has previously served on the West Hartford Board of Education and works as an adjunct faculty member at the University of Saint Joseph and the University of Hartford.

Ruth Fortune was the first person to enter the race to challenge Larson. Appointed to the Hartford Board of Education in 2024, she came to the United States from Haiti as a young undocumented immigrant. She testified in favor of financial aid for undocumented students before the General Assembly in 2016. Fortune, a graduate of UConn School of Law, is an associate at Wiggin & Dana. She specializes as a trust and estate lawyer.

Campaign

John Larson thought Luke Bronin was kidding when he told him he was planning to run for his congressional seat. Bronin told Larson to reconsider seeking a term at his age. Larson told him that he would run for another term. The formerly close allies have headed towards a brutal primary.

The race didn’t receive a ton of attention until Bronin upset Larson at the convention for the party endorsement. After Larson’s allies maneuvered to ensure Jillian Gilchrest made the ballot with 15% of delegates, an effort to hopefully split the challenger vote, Bronin took a lead in the second round in a room with about 400 delegates and won the party endorsement 52-48 over Larson. This meant that Bronin would appear on top of the ballot in the primary. Challengers are sorted alphabetically, which meant Larson would appear at the bottom.

Fortune had to take the difficult path and gather signatures to qualify for the ballot as she did not receive enough delegates. She successfully did, and made history as the first person to successfully petition onto the ballot against an incumbent member of Congress.

In a race where candidates agreed on the majority of issues, the campaign focused on the few differences they had in policy. Overall, the candidates are all progressives, though Gilchrest and Fortune are to the left of Bronin and Larson.

Campaign fundraising emerged as a main issue in the primary. Larson has attacked Bronin for being a “corporate moderate” candidate of the billionaires, saying Bronin is there to their bidding. Bronin fought back, saying he is progressive, saying he wants to tax the rich and abolish ICE, attacking Larson for also taking donations from billionaires, and saying he’s not there to do anyone’s bidding. Bronin has attacked Larson for fundraising with PACs money, which is about half of Larson’s fundraising. With Larson and Bronin dominating fundraising, Gilchrest has attacked both of them for having big money in politics, saying she is the only candidate working to get “big money out of politics”.

Though Larson argued for months that his challengers weren’t different from him on policy, running on his experience and his leadership on Social Security. He has changed his argument to position Bronin to the right of him, saying he’s the true progressive. His initial argument led Bronin to focus his bid on a generational argument for change, as Bronin hasn’t staked out any major issue different from Larson’s record. Bronin says in his ads that John Larson is a good man, but “I’m running for Congress right now because I think we’ve got to bring a whole different type of energy to this fight…” Bronin says in one of his ads.

Race Rating

Gilchrest and Fortune have struggled to fundraise in this race. Both have raised $160,000 and $105,000 respectively over the course of their campaigns. Though admirable, both have focused on grassroots efforts and talking to voters. The issue is they’ve been drowned out by the $3,000,000 fundraising of Bronin, and $2,700,000 fundraising of Larson, leaving this race as between two candidates.

Larson has the endorsements of the federal delegation and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. He has focused on his labor support, touting endorsements from Labor, Trade, Planned Parenthood, Etc. Larson also holds many endorsements from his hometown of East Hartford and from multiple state legislative members.

Bronin did get a national endorsement from former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg. In Connecticut, Bronin has received local endorsements from several elected officials in Hartford, including Mayor Arunan Arunanpalam and Council President TJ Clarke. Bronin has also received endorsements from Newington Mayor Jon Trister, Rocky Hill Mayor Allan Smith, Cromwell Mayor James Demetriades, and Wethersfield Mayor Ken Lesser.

Gilchrest has received a number of endorsements in the State Legislature, including a group endorsement signed by 18 of her female legislative colleagues. Gilchrest also holds endorsements from progressive groups such as Indivisible CT and Citizens Impeachment.

My expectations for the primary are a narrow win for Larson. I 100% believe a Bronin upset is possible. Larson, however, has an edge due to the opposition vote being split between three candidates. There were only two polls in the race. One was a Larson internal from January (Larson 49-26), and one was a VoteVets poll (an organization that supports Bronin) that had Bronin leading Larson (Bronin 38-30), but both are months old. Although private polls have shown Bronin with a lead, nothing has been publicly released in months. One thing Bronin has going for him is that, unlike the Governor’s race, the VoteVets poll had him doing well with both older and younger voters, indicating, unlike Elliott, he doesn’t need to rely on younger voters for victory.

Larson will get a large margin out of East Hartford. Bronin will likely win Hartford. The question is how the rest of the 27-town district will go. West Hartford is a bit of a toss-up as Gilchrest will get a fair amount of the vote in her hometown. Larson will do well in towns like Bristol with a large working-class population. The more rural towns in the northern part of the district will likely favor Larson, though Bronin has been making a play there as well. Middletown is a toss-up with a mix of both progressive university voters (Wesleyan) and working-class voters. Expectations from polling are that Ruth Fortune will get about 5% of the vote, and Jillian Gilchrest will get about 10% of the vote.

Overall, this appears to be a highly competitive primary between Larson and Bronin. Larson enters Election Day with a slight advantage due to his established political network and the likelihood that the anti-Larson vote remains divided among multiple candidates. However, Bronin’s fundraising, endorsements, and reported private polling suggest an upset would not be surprising. The race is likely to be decided by turnout and the margins in the larger towns in the district (away from the candidates’ bases), including West Hartford, Middletown, Manchester, Windsor and Bristol.

Race Rating: Lean Larson

Prediction: Larson +3 (Larson 45%, Bronin 42%, Gilchrest 9%, Fortune 4%)

4th Congressional District – Republican Primary

Incumbent: Jim Himes (D)

Candidates: Michael Goldstein vs Daniel Miressi

Type of Primary: Opposition Party Nomination

2024 General Election Result: Himes +23.8 – Jim Himes (D) – 61.1%, Michael Goldstein (R) – 37.3%

2024 Presidential Results: Harris +23.4 – Kamala Harris (D) – 60.9%, Donald Trump (R) – 37.5%

2026 General Election Rating: Solid D

Candidates

Michael Goldstein, a physician and attorney from Greenwich, faces Daniel Miressi, a hockey coach and former professional hockey player, for the right to take on Democratic Rep. Jim Himes in the 4th Congressional District in November. No Republican has won the district since former Rep. Chris Shays won the district in 2006. Himes would unseat Shays in 2008.

Goldstein was the 2024 Republican nominee in the District. He also ran for the nomination in 2020 and 2022. In 2020, he did not qualify for the primary after forming a campaign committee. In 2022, Goldstein lost the Republican primary to party-endorsed Jayme Stevenson by a 40-60 margin. Goldstein has the party endorsement for the second time in a row.

Miressi qualified for the primary at the party convention. Miressi considered running in the district in 2024, but ultimately did not. He was also the Republican nominee for the 25th State Senate against Connecticut State Senate Majority Leader Bob Duff in 2022. He lost the general election 35-61 to Duff

On his campaign website, Goldstein emphasizes his experience as both a doctor and lawyer to pinpoint issues residents face. He also proposes the Goldstein Plan on issues he supports and opposes. Some of these include restoring the SALT deduction, ending cashless bail, focusing on parental rights, unwavering support for Israel, securing our borders, and protecting the Second Amendment.

On his campaign website, Miressi first explains that Republicans are the “big tent party” in Connecticut. His campaign platform is Family, Community, and Economy. He says Himes has forgotten what it means to be a “Nutmegger”. He says he will fight to lower the cost of living, parental rights, and will focus on election integrity and trust, while focusing on accountability in Washington.

Race Rating

Due to two recent primaries in this district, we do actually have some information on how a primary could go. Goldstein is favored due to the party endorsement and name ID from repeated runs in the seat. Goldstein’s primary victory in 2024 was supported by winning 79% of the vote in Greenwich, which made the margin of difference in the race.

It should be noted that turnout has been very low in recent primaries in the seat. Low-profile primaries in a Safe Democratic district likely contributed to low turnout. Only 16,517 ballots were cast in the 2022 Republican primary, and only 8,025 ballots were cast in the 2024 Republican primary. This could lead to an unexpected result.

Neither candidate has raised much money. Goldstein has raised 21k, and taken a 25k loan, and Miressi has raised 10k. Goldstein’s numerous runs may lead voters to want a different alternative, especially as this is his fourth run for this office. Despite having the party endorsement in 2024, Goldstein only won 54-46. Due to this, Miressi may have a chance at an upset, but Goldstein is favored.

Race Rating: Likely Goldstein

5th Congressional District – Republican Primary

Incumbent: Jahana Hayes (D)

Candidates: Chris Shea vs Jonathan De Barros

Type of Primary: Opposition Party Nomination

2024 General Election Result: Hayes +6.8 – Jahana Hayes (D) – 53.4%, George Logan (R) – 46.6%

2024 Presidential Results: Harris +6.2– Kamala Harris (D) – 52.0%, Donald Trump (R) – 46.4%

2026 General Election Rating: Solid D

Candidates

Chris Shea, a firefighter and retired Navy Seal, faces community leader Jonathan De Barros for the right to take on Rep. Jahana Hayes in Connecticut’s most competitive congressional seat. After almost unseating Hayes in 2022, the CT GOP spends most of their limited resources in the 5th District.

Chris Shea is the preferred candidate by the CT GOP. He has fundraised far more than any other Republican congressional candidate in the state, raising $311,000 this cycle. He did raise about the same amount of money as Rep. Hayes in Q1 this year, 163k to 166k. Shea founded the organization Hero to Hero, a nonprofit that encourages military veterans to consider second careers as first responders. Since retiring from his military career, Shea works as a firefighter lieutenant at the North Haven Fire Department. His military career started when he joined the US Navy in 1991. His time in service included operational tours with deployments and various joint special operations in Sarajevo, Afghanistan, and Mexico.

Jonathan De Barros is the founder of the Phoenix Youth Foundation, a nonprofit that works to mentor at-risk youth, promote vocational training, and teaching conflict resolution. De Barros has received attention for his role in the shooting and killing a young man in October 1996. De Barros was convicted of murder, attempted murder, and assault with a firearm. In 2000, the Connecticut Appellate Court overturned his original murder conviction, ruling that a trial judge blocked critical evidence supporting De Barros’s claim of self-defense in the shooting.

His manslaughter charge went to trial again, but ended in a hung jury. De Barros eventually accepted a plea bargain under the Alford Doctrine, which stated he could maintain his innocence, but the state had enough evidence to potentially convict him. The Connecticut Board of Pardons and Paroles issued De Barros an absolute pardon in 2022. De Barros says he was wrongfully incarcerated for 19 years due to flawed prosecution and maintains his self-defense view.

De Barros filed a defamation suit during his campaign against four supporters of Shea for allegedly calling him a “murderer”. Shea is not a defendant in the suit. The suit seeks a gag order to stop the four defendants from repeating statements about him being a murderer. De Barros says the supporters said those statements on Facebook Live broadcasts, social media, and during the Republican nominating convention.

Campaign Issues and Race Rating

Both Shea and De Barros align themselves as conservative Republicans. De Barros calls himself a “MAGA patriot”. De Barros has heavily critiqued other Republicans in the state. Last year, the Capitol Police investigated him for social media posts about Republican State Chair Ben Proto, Senate Minority Leader Stephen Harding, and Sen. Rob Sampson, but the Capitol Police determined nothing De Barros said was a threat.

Shea’s campaign website shows issues focusing on protecting families. Specifically, stopping illegal immigration and “standing against woke ideologies that threaten our children’s future”. He also emphasizes lowering the cost of living by reducing the tax burden and promoting practical housing solutions. He also says America should stand with Israel, advocates for American military strength, and will fight to improve the VA.

De Barros stakes out similar positions on immigration, dedicating effort to keep borders secure. He does add more specific positions, adding that any governor or elected official who obstructs immigration and customs enforcement should be removed from office and arrested by Homeland Security. He also takes positions on improving the VA and wants to enact laws that would prevent bills in Connecticut that allow parents not to be informed. De Barros promotes charter schools as an alternative to a failing education system. He stakes out his plans as a “New Reconstruction for the 5th district,” akin to the Reconstruction after the Civil War to rebuild trust in institutions.

Shea is favored here on Tuesday. His strong support from local officials and strong fundraising should give him a solid victory. However, similar to the 4th Congressional District, turnout will be low, so an upset isn’t impossible depending on who can get their base out.

It’s unknown how the defamation lawsuit will play out with voters. It is one of the few things in this primary that has broken into the news cycle. De Barros may be able to generate some excitement among his base supporters. Also, with Shea being stronger with party support, De Barros may be able to generate an “Establishment” vs “Outsider” message, which can be effective in a Republican primary where many primary voters are unhappy with the state party leaders for continued losses in the state.

De Barros has to use more of a grassroots approach, having fundraised only $25,000 this cycle, about 1/12 of Shea’s haul. The money Shea has will likely allow him to get his name more in front of voters. Shea’s profile is also appealing for a district close to the federal level that may attract voters.

Race Rating: Solid Shea

Summary

Connecticut’s August 11th primaries offer a snapshot of where both parties head going into the general election. Notably for Democrats, the Governor’s race will test the strength of the party’s progressive wing against an incumbent who remains broadly popular. The 1st Congressional District could produce one of the most watched contests of the night. Luke Bronin can truly upset Rep. John Larson, but structural advantages remain for both incumbents. If Bronin wins, it would create a shock for incumbents across the country, as Congressman Larson has faced no scandals or a prominent reason to be out of office. In addition, this is not a race that has faced an ideological argument for change. Races on generational change on its own rarely take out incumbents.

Primaries for prominent offices in Connecticut are a rare occasion, and against incumbents is almost unheard of. An incumbent Governor hasn’t faced a primary since 1978. An incumbent member of the House in Connecticut has never faced a primary at all. It’s no secret that we are in a political environment where we may see more primaries in Connecticut’s future.

Low-turnout primaries in the 4th and 5th Congressional Districts could lead to unexpected results, and upsets have been common in recent Connecticut Republican primaries. Whether these contests reaffirm the political status quo or signal shifting coalitions within Connecticut’s parties, the results will provide valuable insight into the state’s political landscape heading into November.

As always, these ratings are forecasts based on the information available before Election Day—not guarantees. I’ll be following the results as they come in on August 11 and will revisit these predictions afterward to evaluate what I got right, what I got wrong, and what the outcomes reveal about Connecticut politics. Stay tuned for Part 2, where we cover legislative primaries.

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