Overview

In 2016, Connecticut Republicans were doing pretty well. With Donald Trump winning the presidency, they managed to get an 18-18 tie in the State Senate and were only down 72-79 in the State House. This amount of power allowed the CT GOP a fair amount of power in the state legislature, culminating in a 2017 budget deal with fiscal restraints that Democrats agreed to.

However, within a decade, things had changed. President Donald Trump transformed the image of the Republican Party. Some states have shifted greatly to the right. However, in Connecticut, old-school moderate Republicans weren’t keen on MAGA, or Trump’s level of populism. This shift towards the Democrats, most prevalent in upper-middle-class suburbs and wealthy Fairfield County, has culminated in Republicans in a superminority position in both the State Legislature and State Senate.

Things aren’t looking great heading to November for the GOP in the State Senate, headlined by two open Republican-held seats that Kamala Harris won by more than 16 points. If Republicans lose these two seats, they will only have 9 seats in the State Senate. This would be the worst result for the CT GOP since the 1974 election cycle, where the Watergate Scandal led Democrats to a 29D-7R Senate and a massive 118D-33R House.

The Possible Flips – Lean D

Democrats shouldn’t be too cocky with SD-28 and SD-36. Democrats thought they were going to take out State Sen. Tony Hwang (R-Fairfield) numerous times over the years. They spent heavily to oust State Sen. Ryan Fazio (R-Greenwich) in 2024, but fell short.

Fairfield County Republicans have split-ticket their ballots, voting blue federally, and red in the state legislature. However, both incumbents are retiring. Both Republican nominees running, Amybeth Laroche (SD-28) and Joe Kelly (SD-36) will outrun the federal lean of their seats easily. But the deep blue federal lean of the seats is likely too much to overcome in November’s expected national environment. Kamala Harris won SD-28, 58-40, and SD-36, 58-41.

Hwang is retiring. Despite Hwang’s success in holding the seat, his poor relationships with local Republicans led to Laroche entering the race last December, with numerous endorsements, before Hwang announced his plans. In addition, Hwang lost a special election for Fairfield First Selectman earlier this year, signaling he didn’t have much intention of staying in the State Senate. Also an indication of the dire environment he would have faced in November, despite carrying Fairfield multiple times during his re-election bids. Democrats will be running Rob Blanchard, who also ran as the nominee for the seat in 2024.

Fazio is retiring, but he is looking for a promotion and is officially the GOP’s nominee for Governor in November. After former New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart’s campaign blew up after reports of her using taxpayer money from a city P-Card for personal purchases during her mayoral tenure, Fazio was able to easily win at the party convention, avoiding a primary from former NY Lt. Gov. Betsy McCaughey.

Fazio can likely help bolster performance in his seat in both the governor’s race and the State Senate race. However, SD-36 flipped the last time Democrats had a similar expected national environment. Democrat Alex Kasser flipped the seat from Incumbent Scott Frantz in 2018, and held it in 2020. When Kasser resigned, Fazio won the seat in a special election in 2021. In addition, during his 2022 re-election, Fazio won by 89 votes, indicating the close nature of the seat. He won a 52-48 victory in 2024.

Therefore, I believe both seats are favored to flip this cycle, but are not guaranteed. Spending will be heavy, and the races will likely remain competitive until November. They are rated as Lean D.

Solid D Seats

Not much to discuss for most of the State Senate’s Democratic caucus. Out of 25 incumbents, no one is really in danger of losing unless a surprise scandal or October surprise occurs. Out of the seats I rated Solid D, a few were notably close on a federal level in 2024. SD-14 (Harris +3), SD-15 (Harris +6), SD-19 (Harris +7), SD-24 (Harris +6). However, all four incumbents (James Maroney, Joan Hartley, Catherine Osten, and Julie Kushner) are running again. In 2024, Hartley had no Republican opposition and Maroney and Osten both won by double digits comfortably.

Likely D Seats

Both incumbents I’ve rated here are likely safe, but do notably represent seats that are a bit closer than the Solid D seats.

In SD-8, State Sen. Paul Honig (D-Harwinton) knocked off State Sen. Lisa Seminara in a 50.3-49.7 victory in 2024, the lone flip of the cycle in the State Senate for either party. Honig is likely to do better in this Harris +10 seat in November than he did in 2024. But being a relatively new senator, in one of the few likely targeted races in the state, made me mark this race as Likely D.

In SD-29, State Sen. Mae Flexer (D-Windham) won a competitive race against Republican Chris Reddy, by a 49.8-48.4 margin in 2024. Kamala Harris won this seat 51-47 in 2024. Flexer has faced numerous close races over the years. The district is notably Democratic due to the presence of the UConn-Storrs campus, despite the red lean of surrounding towns. Similar to Honig, Flexer is likely to do better than 2024, and win an expected rematch against Reddy, but the close nature of the district, and Flexer’s lack of overperformance in recent cycles have me mark this race as Likely D.

An Intriguing Toss-Up

SD-35 is an interesting case study. State Sen. Jeff Gordon (R-Woodstock) won a comfortable 53-47 victory in 2024 against Democrat Merry Garrett. However, in 2022, Gordon won a narrower 50.6-49.4 victory in this seat. With a 2026 environment, this puts Gordon in a precarious position. I believe this puts Gordon as the most vulnerable Republican incumbent.

In addition, the previous incumbent to this seat, Republican Dan Champagne, won two narrow races in both 2018 and 2020. In 2018, he won 51-49, and in 2020, he won 50.5-49.5, under district lines that remain fairly similar.

With Democrats likely focusing on flipping SD-28 and SD-36, it’s unlikely Democrats will spend a lot of money in SD-35; it’ll be a seat that is determined by the November political environment.

Gordon faces Democrat Ethan Werstler, a UConn grad, who has no competition for the nomination. Werstler ran in the 52nd State House Seat in 2024, against State Rep. Kurt Vail, losing 42-58. However, the 52nd State House Seat is the 11th most Republican seat in the state, where Trump won by 15 points. The 35th State Senate seat, on the other hand, is one of the six Republican-held Senate seats won by Kamala Harris. Kamala Harris won here 51-48 in 2024. This will a close race in November.

Lean R

Normally, State Sen. Rob Sampson would not be in a competitive race in SD-16. He won a large 57-43 victory in 2024, running 4 points ahead of Trump in the most Republican Senate district in Connecticut. Trump won here 54-44 in 2024. Sampson won an even larger 59-41 victory in 2022.

However, the closer-than-usual race in this district this year is due to his opponent. Sampson’s closest race in his State Senate career was in 2020 when he won 53.8-46.2 against Democrat Jack Perry.

Perry, who ran for Congress in the 1st Congressional District last year, decided to drop down and face Sampson again. Perry, a former member of Southington’s town council, will give Sampson likely the most competitive race of his career.

Sampson is still favored in this Republican district, but Perry’s strong performance in 2020 with a favorable environment could give an opening.

Likely R

Republicans are favored in SD-7, SD-18. SD-21, and SD-30. The reason these races are marked as Likely R is due to the federal lean of the seats. Though Connecticut Republicans have been able to outrun the federal lean of their seats by large margins in previous cycles. Connecticut’s 2025 local election proved to be difficult for many Republican incumbents as Democrats flipped 27 towns from Republican to Democratic control, indicating that many Democrats weren’t as willing to vote Republican on the local level in Trump’s second term. Many residents found themselves unable to separate local and national politics.

3 of the 4 seats listed here voted for Kamala Harris on the federal level, SD-7 (Harris+2), SD-18 (Harris+5), and SD-30 (Harris+0.91). SD-21 is a narrow Trump seat (Trump +0.54). Republicans will likely hold onto these seats, but I wouldn’t be surprised for closer margin of victory compared to 2024.

However, many incumbents in this category have outrun the federal lean by a large margin. Even though Kamala Harris winning her seat by 5 points, State Sen. Heather Somers won a large 59-41 victory. Despite large Democratic overperformances in special elections, Jason Perillo won 53.5-46.5 in SD-21’s special election last year, a 6.5-point overperformance, one of the few Republican overperformances this cycle in a special election. Finally, many of these incumbents have performed well in unfavorable environments like 2018 where there weren’t many close races in these districts.

Solid R

An absolute disaster at all levels would have to happen for Republicans to lose any of these three seats. Though everyone will face a Democratic opponent. Democrats are contesting all 36 seats this year.

Though Democrats may be able to flip some Trump-won seats in the State House, it seems unlikely to happen in the State Senate. The three seats here are some of the most Republican leaning in the state. Though due to political geography, in Connecticut, you won’t find many heavily Republican seats, like in other states where Trump +50 seats are common in rural areas.

SD-31 (Trump +8) , SD-32 (Trump +9), and SD-34 (Trump +5) are all solidly R in November. The two of the three incumbents here, Eric Berthel and Paul Cicarella, won by at least 13 points in 2024, outrunning Trump by a couple of points. Henri Martin in SD-31 didn’t even face a Democratic opponent in 2024. Since 2016, Martin has won all his races by at least 16 points.

Overview

Democrats are favored to make gains in the State Senate in November. We will make updates to race ratings as needed later in the summer. We will see if Republicans can hold onto their seats despite the unfavorable national environment. The goal for them will be to separate local and national politics, something the Connecticut GOP has struggled with in the Trump era.
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