State Rep. Pat Dillon (right) at a debate in the Coogan Pavilion on July 28th, 2026, with one of her two opponents, Justin Farmer (left). Credit to Paul Bass | New Haven Independent

Overview

Welcome to the CT Election Guide’s August 11th Ultimate Primary Guide.

In Part 2 of the guide, I will cover primaries in the state legislature. Read Part 1 if you are interested in the primaries for Governor and Congress.

There are a number of primaries to cover.

I will also give a rating for each race and a prediction of who I think will emerge victorious on the 11th. There are several competitive races on the ballot, so expect some fascinating results.

Let’s get started!

Voting Information

Per state rules, Connecticut is a closed primary state. This means only registered voters of that party can vote in a primary election on August 11th. In Connecticut, a plurality of voters are registered unaffiliated (about 42.2% as of 2025); that proportion of state voters will be unable to vote in the election. However, unaffiliated voters have until August 10th at noon to register with a party, if they plan to vote on primary day.

If a voter wants to switch parties to vote in a primary (From Democratic to Republican, or vice versa), they had to do so by May 11th. If a voter wanted to vote during early voting and they are unaffiliated, they had until July 31st at Noon. A new voter can file a voter application in person with the registrar of voters in their town by noon on the business day prior to the day they want to vote.

In Connecticut, only contested primaries take place on the ballot. If a race is uncontested, there is no primary in that district. Due to a Democratic primary for Governor, every registered Democrat in the state can vote in the primary.

There are no statewide primaries for Republicans, as all statewide offices were decided at the May Convention, and no challengers met the requirements or attempted to force a primary. There are primaries in some congressional districts and legislative seats. If you’re a Registered Republican looking to vote, you can use this map to see if you live within the district boundaries. There are primaries in the 4th and 5th Congressional Districts, the 19th State Senate Seat, and the 50th and 71st State House Seats.

Early voting is available for this election. Early voting takes place from August 3rd to August 9th. Extended voting hours will take place on the 4th and 6th.

Monday, August 3rd – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Tuesday, August 4th – 8:00 am to 8:00 pm
Wednesday, August 5th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Thursday, August 6th – 8:00 am to 8:00 pm
Friday, August 7th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Saturday, August 8th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Sunday, August 9th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm

Voters must vote in the assigned early voting location for their town of voter registration. The list of early voting locations can be found here. The majority of the early voting locations are in Town Hall, community centers, or the library.

Absentee ballots are also available for this election. One can request a ballot at the online portal here. Starting this cycle, after a 2024 voting referendum passed, voters no longer need to provide a specific excuse to vote in any election. Voters can request an absentee ballot for any reason. If voters need a paper application for an absentee ballot, use this link and scroll down to print a paper application. The deadline to request an absentee ballot is August 10th.

If you need to hand out an absentee ballot application to someone, please follow the state’s strict rules concerning this action. There are limits on who you can get an absentee ballot application for (immediate family), and the number of ballots you can request.

CT Election Guide Race Rating System

These ratings represent my assessment of each race based on available polling, fundraising, endorsements, campaign activity, geographic strengths, and the overall political environment. They are forecasts—not guarantees—and races can shift before Election Day.

• Solid – Expected margin of 15% or more
• Likely – Expected margin of 8–15%
• Lean – Expected margin of 3–8%
• Toss-Up – Expected margin of less than 3%

State Senate

2nd State Senate District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Doug McCrory (D)

Candidates: Sen. Doug McCrory (Inc.) vs Maryam Khan vs Ayana Taylor

Type of Primary: Incumbent vs Challenger

Background and Candidates

Incumbent State Sen. Doug McCrory (D-Hartford) faces two challengers for renomination in this deep blue District that contains parts of Hartford, Windsor, and Bloomfield for a sixth 2-year term. State Rep. Maryam Khan (D-Windsor) and Windsor Board of Education Chair Ayana Taylor. Khan won the party endorsement in May at the district convention and will be on Row A of the ballot. Taylor ran against McCrory in the 2024 primary, where she lost by a 32-60 margin.

McCrory, who has been a longtime state legislator, was first elected to the State House in 2004. He served for 11 years before winning a special election to the 2nd State Senate seat in 2017. Though he handily won his primary two years prior, McCrory has since found himself as the subject of a federal criminal investigation.

The grand jury investigated the millions of taxpayer dollars McCrory steered towards a non-profit in his district. An audit showed that McCrory directed how one of the nonprofit, Blue Hills Civic Association, spent the majority of the money allocated. He also told them not to tell the state about money stolen through a fraudulent wire transfer. McCrory was also investigated for the relationship he had with the leader of some of the nonprofits, Sonserae Cicero.

Khan and Taylor are running against McCrory due to his scandals. Khan said during the convention, “The district is ready for strong leadership and possibly new leadership, but regardless, leadership that’s not distracted.” Ayana Taylor has said her campaign is centered on integrity and trust. Both candidates have also brought their backgrounds as a campaign tool. Taylor as the chair of the Windsor Board of Education, and Khan as an “active educator, mother and focused leader”.

The three candidates are aligned on most major policy issues, though one notable exception is on school choice and education funding. McCrory advocates for school choice (charter, magnet, etc), while Khan remains firmly opposed. Taylor has expressed some skepticism on school choice, but supports quality alternatives.

Race Rating

Though Khan has the party endorsement, it’s not unprecedented for an incumbent to lose a party convention, but in Connecticut it is rare. A few incumbents have won without the party endorsement before. In 2024, in the 15th State House Seat (which overlaps with this district), State Rep. Bobby Gibson lost the party endorsement, but won his primary 70-30.

Though the FBI investigation has brought scrunity to McCrory, Khan and Taylor will be splitting the anti-McCrory vote. In addition, both Khan and Taylor are from Windsor, meaning they both will likely be splitting their home base. Taylor won Windsor in her 2024 matchup against McCrory, but got swamped by large margins in the Hartford and Bloomfield sections of the district.

Khan does have grassroots support and is one of the two primary candidates this cycle supported by CT DSA. However, i’m skeptical she can win over the large older black voter contingent in the district. Taylor has good name recognition from her previous run in the seat, but her base of support overlaps with Khan. At the end of the day, Khan and Taylor both will likely split the opposition vote, and will struggle in McCrory’s base of votes in Bloomfield and Hartford. So I give the edge to McCrory.

Race Rating: Likely McCrory

13th State Senate District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Jan Hochadel (D)

Candidates: Jack Fazzino vs Jim Jinks

Type of Primary: Open Seat

Background and Candidates

State Sen. Jan Hochadel announced her retirement late last year after only two terms in the State Senate. This district has had close races within single digits the last two cycles, though Democrats are expected to easily retain the seat this cycle. State Rep. Jonathan “Jack” Fazzino faces off against Cheshire Town Council member Jim Jinks. The district contains Meriden and parts of Cheshire, Middlefield, and Middletown.

Fazzino won the party endorsement in May. He currently represents the 83rd State House seat, which he first won a narrow victory in 2022 by a 50.6-49.4 margin. Fazzino works as an attorney. Jinks on the other hand works is marketing. He is presenting himself as more of an “outsider” looking to bring change to Hartford. Jinks was first elected to the Cheshire Town Council in 2019. Jinks ran for the State House in 2020 against Rep. Craig Fishbein in the 90th state house seat, where he lost by 7 votes out of over 14,000 votes casted.

Both candidates support raising taxes on the wealthy, protecting residents from aggressive ICE tactics, and state investment into education. Both are similar on most major policy issues, though broadly Jinks has placed himself to the left of Fazzino. Jinks is supporting progressive challenger Josh Elliott in the governor’s race, while Fazzino supports incumbent Governor Ned Lamont. Jinks argues that Fazzino is a “political insider” and is benefiting from outside PAC money. Fazzino says Jinks’ argument is “bad faith, desperate attack…” noting the outside group is spending with no knowledge from him, or coordination.

Fazzino is running on his record as a state legislator, including education funding for Meriden and Cheshire schools. Jinks focuses his platform on affordability, shared values and civil rights. Both have noted their success running in a region of the state that is more of a toss-up in federal and local races.

Race Rating

Both candidates will likely do well in their hometowns. Fazzino in Meriden, and Jinks will do well in Cheshire. Fazzino does have name recognition in Cheshire as his district contains part of the town. Meriden has the largest number of Democrats in the district, which will likely benefit Fazzino.

Jinks’ progressive challenge will have a fair amount of support. Jinks has the support of many town council members in Cheshire. Fazzino has a number of prominent endorsements with strong support from Middletown officials, including Middletown Mayor Gene Nocera, State Rep. Kai Belton and State Rep. Brandon Chafee. Fazzino also has the backing of the party endorsement, Working Families Party, and Connecticut AFL-CIO. In addition, statewide officials, Attorney General William Tong, Treasurer Erick Russell and Comptroller Sean Scanlon have backed Fazzino.

Though Jinks will have a good performance in Cheshire, Fazzino’s more establishment backing and prominent labor organizations will likely win out in an older Democratic electorate.

Race Rating: Solid Fazzino

19th State Senate District – Republican Primary

Incumbent: Catherine Osten (D)

Candidates: Jason Guidone vs Mike France

Type of Primary: Opposing Party Nomination

Background and Candidates

Incumbent Democrat State Sen. Catherine Osten has managed to comfortably hold this Harris +6 seat since 2012. She ran ahead of the national ticket, winning 57-43 in 2024. Osten is one of the more moderate Democrats in the State Legislature. The 19th State Senate represents Columbia, Franklin, Lebanon, Hebron, Ledyard, Lisbon, Marlborough, Norwich, Sprague, and part of Montville.

Osten is widely favored in the Fall, but two Republicans, Jason Guidone and Mike France, seek to deny Osten an 8th term in the State Senate.

Guidone was the 2024 Republican nominee and is making a second bid for the seat. He is a former ESPN executive who lives in Hebron. Guidone is running on a standard Republican platform of lowering costs, protecting taxpayers, backing police and public safety, and putting families first. He states on his website that he is “not a career politician”.

France was the 2022 and 2024 Republican nominee for the 2nd Congressional District. He lost both races by wide margins to Rep. Joe Courtney. France is a former State Representative who served from 2015 to 2023 in the 42nd State House seat. He spent two decades in the Navy, before working as an engineer at the Submarine base. France is running on reducing government spending, ensuring a skilled workforce for the defense industry, and telling “people the truth”.

France was originally running for the 2nd Congressional District for a third try, though he dropped out of the race citing internal discontent with local Republican leaders. He said one of the reasons he entered the race was he felt he had a better chance to win in November than Guidone due to his experience and resume. Guidone has focused his attacks on France’s record in the legislature.

Race Rating

With both candidates not having much of a difference on policy, this is a race more based on perceived electability. Guidone has the party endorsement and a large support of the delegate base. Guidone got 77% of convention delegates, and France’s falling out with some local GOP officials likely does not help.

However, France does have more name ID due to his runs for Congress. The question is if voters will run it back, or go with France. I expect it to be a win for Guidone due to local support.

Race Rating: Likely Guidone

State House

4th State House District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Julio Concepcion (D)

Candidates: Julio Concepcion (Inc.) vs Venice Sotomayor

Type of Primary: Incumbent vs Challenger

Candidates and Background

In this deep-blue Hartford-based seat, Democratic incumbent Julio Concepcion faces Chef Venice Sotomayor. Concepcion first won his seat in a special election in 2018 after Incumbent Rep. Angel Arce resigned from the seat due to scandal.

This was one of two primaries in the state affected by mistakes made by the Secretary of State’s office. The CT Supreme Court ruled that Sotomayor could be on the ballot after Concepcion sought to have her petitions thrown out due to an administrative error. The CT Supreme Court ruled that Sotomayor should not be blamed for a mistake made by election officials. It’s common in Connecticut for incumbents to try to challenge signature petitions to prevent primaries. Sotomayor’s lawyer Alex Taubes accused Concepcion of trying to prevent the election unfairly.

As far as the race goes, there has been almost no coverage whatsoever. Concepcion does not have a campaign website or seem to be actively campaigning. Sotomayor has been running her campaign mostly on Facebook. She is running a challenge broadly on change and shaking up the status quo. Many of her posts lack much detail, and all her videos are just images with music of nothing specific. In one of her posts, she does list a few issues she’s running on; Real solutions, supporting business in underserved neighborhoods, affordable rentals/housing stability, and ensuring people don’t have to pick between their health and fresh food.

Race Rating

Sotomayor has a picture of Rep. John Larson holding one of her mailers, and has a graphic that Larson stands with her campaign. Though not the most formal of endorsements (and nothing says Larson explicitly endorsed Sotomayor), the reason for any involvement from Larson could be the fact that Concepcion endorsed Bronin over Larson in the congressional primary.

With a district with one of the lowest turnout rates in the state and a lack of active campaigning from Concepcion, Sotomayor could get a surprise upset. However, as the incumbent with the party endorsement, and Sotomayor relatively unknown, Concepcion remains favored.

Race Rating: Solid Concepcion

10th State House District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Henry Genga (D)

Candidates: Angie Parkinson vs Tyron Harris

Type of Primary: Open Seat

Background and Candidates

Longtime Incumbent Henry Genga decided to retire after 20 years in office. Genga is currently the oldest member of the State Legislature. He leaves behind a deep-blue Open Harris +38 seat based in East Hartford.

Two candidates face off, Angie Parkinson and Tyron Harris. Parkinson is an East Hartford Town Councilor, who also spent 25 years teaching social studies. Harris serves as the chair of the East Hartford Board of Education. He also serves as the town’s Human Resources Director.

Parkinson is running on healthcare for all, affordability, protecting/strengthening public education, tax fairness, fair wages, and protecting rights and democracy. Harris lists his campaign priorities as lowering the cost of living, strong public schools, affordable healthcare, prosperity/good jobs, and safe/united communities.

Race Rating

Parkinson won the party endorsement in the district. She also has the endorsements of Connecticut Working Families Party, AFL-CIO, American Federation of Teachers (AFT), and Building Trades.

Harris has the endorsement of East Hartford Mayor Connor Martin. Both candidates are prominent and are elected officials. Parkinson has a slight edge due to institutional support, but Harris should not be underestimated, holding the mayor’s endorsement. This race will likely be very close.

Race Rating: Lean Parkinson

31st State House District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Jill Barry (D)

Candidates: Moise “Moses” Carelus vs Anthony DiLizia

Type of Primary: Open Democratic Nomination, Incumbent running in Fall as Independent

Background and Candidates

Now why the long type of primary description. It’s a bit complicated. Out of nowhere, moderate Democrat State Rep. Jill Barry lost her party convention for her district by a large margin to Moses Carelus. Barry, who is one of the most conservative Democrats in the caucus, has found herself on the wrong side of progressives in her Glastonbury district who quietly saw her as vulnerable, as the district has shifted rapidly to the left in the Trump era. Barry’s voting with Republicans on a gun-safety measure, voting against the state budget, against paid family and medical leave, among other priorities, made her vulnerable.

Barry was caught off guard at the convention; as a single-town district, the party endorsement was open for any Democrat in the 31st State House Seat to cast a delegate vote. Organization took place behind the scenes without much attention, as to not alert Barry. We’ll cover more of this later, but Barry is cross-endorsed by Republicans, running as an Independent in the Fall after electing not to run in the primary, and has been on the campaign trail with Republican nominee for Governor Ryan Fazio in a Harris +25 seat.

With Barry not running in the primary, and Carelus holding the party endorsement, Glastonbury Town Councilor Anthony DiLizia decided to petition to jump into the race. DiLizia, an Army veteran, also serves as the executive director of a healthcare non-profit that delivers affirming/compassionate healthcare for the LGBTQIA+ community. Carelus, a former teacher and soccer coach, was recruited by a coalition of Democrats unhappy with Barry.

Carelus’ priorities include funding public education, affordability, holding Eversource accountable, and supporting Glastonbury’s future/standing up for Glastonbury’s values. DiLizia’s priorities include protecting CT from Trump’s policies, delivering lower costs, funding schools, supporting seniors, defending women’s rights, and fighting for affordable healthcare.

Race Rating

Though Carelus has the party endorsement and the early start to the campaign. DiLizia is well-known as an elected official, and petitioning indicates a level of baseline support. Also the convention was with a small group of voters, meaning that DiLizia might have a larger name ID than Carelus. However, due to Carelus’ early start, I would give the edge to him in this race, but DiLizia will make this a close race.

Race Rating: Likely Carelus

50th State House District – Republican Primary

Incumbent: Pat Boyd (D)

Candidates: Jadon MacCormack vs Anthony “Tony” Emilio

Type of Primary: Opposing Party Nomination

Background and Candidates

The most competitive general election district on the docket tonight with a primary. Incumbent Democrat Rep. Pat Boyd was unopposed last cycle in this seat based in Eastern Connecticut that Kamala Harris carried by a narrow 50-48 margin. Republicans were hoping to put a good nominee in this competitive seat.

This seat has garnered the most attention of any legislative primary in the state, for all the wrong reasons. Republicans at the district party convention nominated religious podcaster and political newcomer Jadon MacCormack as their nominee. Republicans did not do much vetting of MacCormack, so when MacCormack started posting about “Happy Straight Month” and calls for an “anti-pride month”, attention came to his previous posts. One of which included sharing an image of a noose in reaction to a gay marriage story, along with other horrid views such as saying women should not hold political power, and questioning the Holocaust death toll.

After the posts came out, Republicans immediately condemned MacCormack for his comments and told him to withdraw from the race. Unfortunately for them, MacCormack seemed to be enjoying the attention and stood by his “biblical beliefs. He went onto the radio show,  WTIC News/Talk 1080’s “Reese on the Radio” program, where he called for the government to put people to death who are “sodomites”, a comment that got national attention.

With MacCormack refusing to withdraw, and spending his time blasting Republican leaders for condemning him. Republicans scrambled to find a candidate to put on the ballot with days left until the petition deadline. Pomfret Businessman Anthony Emilio joined the race in light of MacCormack’s comments, saying “That’s not who our party is, and so I think it’s important that he – that someone runs against him and he loses.”Emilio, with efforts from the local and state GOP, rapidly gathered the signatures needed before the deadline. Emilio wants to focus on other issues. He said he wants the focus to be on Republican efforts to shrink government.

Race Rating

Republicans are in an awkward position, as MacCormack is the endorsed candidate on the ballot. With attention on the race in June and July, the hope for the GOP is that enough attention was put onto the race that Republicans voting in the primary know not to vote for MacCormack. The quick scramble, and Emilio having basically every Republican in the district, state Republican, and neighboring Republican state Reps and Senators’ endorsement should be enough to put him well ahead of MacCormack. Republicans do not want to be associated with MacCormack in any fashion, and having him as a general election candidate would not help.

Race Rating: Solid Emilio

71st State House District – Republican Primary

Incumbent: William Pizzuto (R)

Candidates: William “Bill” Pizzuto (Inc) vs Michael Grosso

Type of Primary: Incumbent vs Challenger

Background and Candidates

Rep. Bill Pizzuto (R-Middlebury) is the only Republican incumbent facing a challenge in the Legislature today. Pizzuto, who first won his seat in a 2022 special election, faces Waterbury Alderman Michael Grosso. The district contains all of Middlebury and part of Waterbury.

Pizzuto has won the last two general elections of this seat uncontested in a seat Donald Trump won 54-45. Pizzuto is a retired administrator who worked at UConn. Grosso, who is his first term as a Waterbury Alderman, is a driver groundsman and equipment operator.

Grosso has gone after Pizzuto for putting language in a bill that blocked a major warehouse development in Waterbury instead of letting local officials decide on the next steps for the project. He is running to ensure that local officials and residents have more say over projects instead of state officials. Grosso is also running on rejecting the status quo.

Grosso is running on lower taxes, more accountability, and economic growth. Pizzuto’s campaign platform also calls for fighting for lower property taxes, driving down energy prices, holding the line on spending, and backing emergency responders.

Race Rating

This should be an interesting race. I am unsure how much Republican primary voters have been focused on the warehouse project, or how they perceive Pizzuto’s reasons for blocking it. But local issues can be very salient in primaries such as this one.

Due to holding the party endorsement and being the incumbent , I give the edge to Pizzuto, though it’ll be interesting to see how each candidate performs in their hometown.

Race Rating: Likely Pizzuto

92nd State House District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Pat Dillon (D)

Candidates: Pat Dillon (Inc) vs Eli Sabin vs Justin Farmer

Type of Primary: Incumbent vs Challengers

Background and Candidates

Longtime State Rep. Pat Dillon faces two challengers in former New Haven Alder Eli Sabin and former Hamden Legislative Council Member Justin Farmer.

Dillon is the longest-serving House member seeking reelection this cycle. Dillon was first elected all the way back in 1984, when Ronald Reagan was on the ballot for a second term. 57 votes were all that separated Dillon from her first bid for the seat in 1982 against Republican incumbent Rep. Rosalind Berman. She later beat Berman in a rematch in 1984 by a 52-48 margin.

No Republican was able to recreate Berman’s unique coalition, as Dillon would win 80-20 in 1986 and never face a close race. The district is one of the most Democratic in the state, voting for Kamala Harris by a massive 84-13 margin. Dillon faced a primary once in her 42-year tenure before this year, in 2010 when she beat Sergio Rodriguez by a comfortable 66-34 margin.

Dillon, who is 77, faces primary challengers that are decades younger than her. Eli Sabin, 26, a former Alder who resigned in January to launch his campaign. He moved to Westville to establish residency. He represented Ward 1 (which contains Yale University) and Ward 7 (Downtown and East Rock) during his 6 years on the board. The district contains part of Ward 3, and Wards 23, 24, 25, 26. Sabin is running on generational change, casting his campaign as about “new energy” needed in the party.

Farmer, 32, a former three-term Hamden city councilmember, is a founding member of Connecticut DSA. He is one of two primary candidates backed by CT DSA this cycle (Maryam Khan is the other). He works as an environmental consultant. Farmer also casts his challenge on generational change with “different takes on what kinds of new leaders will emerge“.

Candidates agree on major issues, though Farmer positions himself to both Sabin and Dillon’s left as a DSA member. All three candidates are progressives who said they will push back against the Trump administration. Candidates are also running on affordability concerns and efforts to rein ICE.

Dillon is running on her record and ability to bring funding to the district, while Sabin and Farmer argue that the current political environment demands change.

Race Rating

With three candidates running, this will divide the vote up quite a bit. I believe that Sabin and Farmer will divide the anti-Dillon vote, leading Dillon to win with a large plurality or close to 50% of the vote. Neither Sabin or Farmer have been running to minimize the other candidate, so both will bring their bases to the polls. Farmer’s support from the DSA, for example, will give him a solid floor in the race.

Pat Dillon has the endorsements of the local Democratic Party with the party endorsement, its town chair, unions, advocacy groups, and a large number of elected officials. Sabin has the endorsements of a number of ward committee members but more notably New Haven Mayor Justin Elicker.

Due to Sabin and Farmer splitting the opposition vote, I expect Dillon to win somewhat comfortably tonight.

Race Rating: Likely Dillon

97th State House District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Al Paolillo

Candidates: Leland Moore vs Wildaliz Bermudez

Type of Primary: Open Seat

Background and Candidates

After Longtime State Sen. Martin Looney announced his retirement, it set off a quick game of musical chairs. Incumbent State Rep. Al Paolillo was Looney’s chosen successor. Paolillo faced no challenge for the seat. Paolillo left his State House seat, where two candidates quickly jumped into the race: Morris Cove Alder Leland Moore and Executive Director of New Haven Fair Rent Commission Wildaliz Bermúdez.

Moore, only five months into his first term as Alder, found himself running for a newly open State Representative seat. He won the Ward 18 Alder seat in a Democratic primary by a wide margin last year before easily winning the general election. Moore works as Assistant Attorney General, working under Attorney General William Tong. He has previously worked as a legislative advisor for the Board of Pardons and Paroles and as a staff attorney for the Connecticut Sentencing Commission.

Wildaliz Bermúdez is a former member of the Hartford City Council, where she was elected as part of the Working Families Party. She was on the council for 6 years before resigning to move to New Haven. On the council, she, along with other Working Families members, tried to move the council far left of center on issues such as immigration, tenant rights, police reform, and accountability. As Director of the Fair Rent Commission, Bermúdez operates the system behind the commission, from mediation of conflicts to investigation to educating city residents.

Both Moore and Bermúdez have similar policy positions on major issues. In a radio interview, both agreed on a number of goals such as more local education aid, higher marginal taxes on millionaires, ditching a $45 million+ plan for a pool, reconsidering Yale’s special state-given tax breaks if they cave to the Trump administration, and that the state should pursue stricter regulation of private utilities. Both praised each other’s work in the community during the interview.

Race Rating

Moore won the party endorsement earlier this year. He also has the endorsement of President Pro Tempore of the Sen. Martin Looney and current Rep. Al Paolillo. Moore has also received support from CT AFL-CIO and AFT Connecticut. Moore also recieed the endorsement of his boss, Attorney General William Tong.

Bermúdez has the support of New Haven Mayor Justin Elicker. Notably, the second candidate Elicker has backed, who doesn’t have the party endorsement. Bermúndz also has the support of Former State Rep. Bob Megan and Former Mayor Toni Harp.

Moore seems to have consolidated establishment support and union support, but the endorsement of Elicker is notable for Bermúdez. I believe Moore is favored, but Bermúdez will keep this a competitive race.

Race Rating: Likely Moore

118th State House District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Frank Smith (D)

Candidates: Toni Lombardi vs Chris Saley

Type of Primary: Open Seat

Background and Candidates

Incumbent State Rep. Frank Smith is retiring after three terms in the State House. Smith’s departure in this Milford-based district allowed two Democrats to jump into this open seat: Milford Alderwoman Toni Lombardi and Milford Director of Public Works Chris Saley.

Both candidates’ platforms touch upon similar issues. Lombardi’s platform emphasises public education, tackling the cost of living, and focusing on coastal resiliency, specifically investment in flood mitigation and infrastructure improvements that protect Milford’s shoreline. Saley owns the Bridgewater Restaurant and owns a local real estate development company. His platform focuses on supporting small businesses and encouraging local economic growth, strong schools, affordability, and protecting Milford’s 17+ miles of beaches from chronic erosion (beach resiliency).

Race Rating

Lombardi has the party endorsement. She also has the support of the CT Working Families Party, AFL-CIO, and American Federation of Teachers. Saley has the support of retiring State Rep. Frank Smith

Lombardi’s institutional support should be enough to get her a win here, but Saley could come close with Smith’s endorsement.

Race Rating: Likely Lombardi

Conclusion

Candidates with the party endorsement are still widely favored in Connecticut primaries. Tonight will be a good test to see how much that holds up. Party endorsements in CT lead to wide institutional support from elected officials and labor unions. However, many challengers have chances for upsets tonight, but the focus will likely be on the Democratic incumbents in SD-2 and HD-92, while also seeing what happens in HD-50. There are not too many ideological primaries on the docket, but an opportunity in some districts for change will be watched.

As always, these ratings are forecasts based on the information available before Election Day—not guarantees. I’ll be following the results as they come in tonight and will revisit these predictions afterward to evaluate what I got right, what I got wrong, and what the outcomes reveal about Connecticut politics.

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