State Rep. Pat Dillon (right) at a debate in the Coogan Pavilion on July 28th, 2026, with one of her two opponents, Justin Farmer (left). Credit to Paul Bass | New Haven Independent

Overview

Welcome to the CT Election Guide’s August 11th Ultimate Primary Guide.

In Part 2 of the guide, I will cover primaries in the state legislature. Read Part 1 if you are interested in the primaries for Governor and Congress.

There are a number of primaries to cover.

I will also give a rating for each race and a prediction of who I think will emerge victorious on the 11th. There are several competitive races on the ballot, so expect some fascinating results.

Let’s get started!

Voting Information

Per state rules, Connecticut is a closed primary state. This means only registered voters of that party can vote in a primary election on August 11th. In Connecticut, a plurality of voters are registered unaffiliated (about 42.2% as of 2025); that proportion of state voters will be unable to vote in the election. However, unaffiliated voters have until August 10th at noon to register with a party, if they plan to vote on primary day.

If a voter wants to switch parties to vote in a primary (From Democratic to Republican, or vice versa), they had to do so by May 11th. If a voter wanted to vote during early voting and they are unaffiliated, they had until July 31st at Noon. A new voter can file a voter application in person with the registrar of voters in their town by noon on the business day prior to the day they want to vote.

In Connecticut, only contested primaries take place on the ballot. If a race is uncontested, there is no primary in that district. Due to a Democratic primary for Governor, every registered Democrat in the state can vote in the primary.

There are no statewide primaries for Republicans, as all statewide offices were decided at the May Convention, and no challengers met the requirements or attempted to force a primary. There are primaries in some congressional districts and legislative seats. If you’re a Registered Republican looking to vote, you can use this map to see if you live within the district boundaries. There are primaries in the 4th and 5th Congressional Districts, the 19th State Senate Seat, and the 50th and 71st State House Seats.

Early voting is available for this election. Early voting takes place from August 3rd to August 9th. Extended voting hours will take place on the 4th and 6th.

Monday, August 3rd – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Tuesday, August 4th – 8:00 am to 8:00 pm
Wednesday, August 5th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Thursday, August 6th – 8:00 am to 8:00 pm
Friday, August 7th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Saturday, August 8th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Sunday, August 9th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm

Voters must vote in the assigned early voting location for their town of voter registration. The list of early voting locations can be found here. The majority of the early voting locations are in Town Hall, community centers, or the library.

Absentee ballots are also available for this election. One can request a ballot at the online portal here. Starting this cycle, after a 2024 voting referendum passed, voters no longer need to provide a specific excuse to vote in any election. Voters can request an absentee ballot for any reason. If voters need a paper application for an absentee ballot, use this link and scroll down to print a paper application. The deadline to request an absentee ballot is August 10th.

If you need to hand out an absentee ballot application to someone, please follow the state’s strict rules concerning this action. There are limits on who you can get an absentee ballot application for (immediate family), and the number of ballots you can request.

CT Election Guide Race Rating System

These ratings represent my assessment of each race based on available polling, fundraising, endorsements, campaign activity, geographic strengths, and the overall political environment. They are forecasts—not guarantees—and races can shift before Election Day.

• Solid – Expected margin of 15% or more
• Likely – Expected margin of 8–15%
• Lean – Expected margin of 3–8%
• Toss-Up – Expected margin of less than 3%

State Senate

2nd State Senate District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Doug McCrory (D)

Candidates: Sen. Doug McCrory (Inc.) vs Maryam Khan vs Ayana Taylor

Type of Primary: Incumbent vs Challenger

Background and Candidates

Incumbent State Sen. Doug McCrory (D-Hartford) faces two challengers for renomination in this deep blue District that contains parts of Hartford, Windsor, and Bloomfield for a sixth 2-year term. State Rep. Maryam Khan (D-Windsor) and Windsor Board of Education Chair Ayana Taylor. Khan won the party endorsement in May at the district convention and will be on Row A of the ballot. Taylor ran against McCrory in the 2024 primary, where she lost by a 32-60 margin.

McCrory, who has been a longtime state legislator, was first elected to the State House in 2004. He served for 11 years before winning a special election to the 2nd State Senate seat in 2017. Though he handily won his primary two years prior, McCrory has since found himself as the subject of a federal criminal investigation.

The grand jury investigated the millions of taxpayer dollars McCrory steered towards a non-profit in his district. An audit showed that McCrory directed how one of the nonprofit, Blue Hills Civic Association, spent the majority of the money allocated. He also told them not to tell the state about money stolen through a fraudulent wire transfer. McCrory was also investigated for the relationship he had with the leader of some of the nonprofits, Sonserae Cicero.

Khan and Taylor are running against McCrory due to his scandals. Khan said during the convention, “The district is ready for strong leadership and possibly new leadership, but regardless, leadership that’s not distracted.” Ayana Taylor has said her campaign is centered on integrity and trust. Both candidates have also brought their backgrounds as a campaign tool. Taylor as the chair of the Windsor Board of Education, and Khan as an “active educator, mother and focused leader”.

The three candidates are aligned on most major policy issues, though one notable exception is on school choice and education funding. McCrory advocates for school choice (charter, magnet, etc), while Khan remains firmly opposed. Taylor has expressed some skepticism on school choice, but supports quality alternatives.

Race Rating

Though Khan has the party endorsement, it’s not unprecedented for an incumbent to lose a party convention, but in Connecticut it is rare. A few incumbents have won without the party endorsement before. In 2024, in the 15th State House Seat (which overlaps with this district), State Rep. Bobby Gibson lost the party endorsement, but won his primary 70-30.

Though the FBI investigation has brought scrunity to McCrory, Khan and Taylor will be splitting the anti-McCrory vote. In addition, both Khan and Taylor are from Windsor, meaning they both will likely be splitting their home base. Taylor won Windsor in her 2024 matchup against McCrory, but got swamped by large margins in the Hartford and Bloomfield sections of the district.

Khan does have grassroots support and is one of the two primary candidates this cycle supported by CT DSA. However, i’m skeptical she can win over the large older black voter contingent in the district. Taylor has good name recognition from her previous run in the seat, but her base of support overlaps with Khan. At the end of the day, Khan and Taylor both will likely split the opposition vote, and will struggle in McCrory’s base of votes in Bloomfield and Hartford. So I give the edge to McCrory.

Race Rating: Likely McCrory

13th State Senate District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Jan Hochadel (D)

Candidates: Jack Fazzino vs Jim Jinks

Type of Primary: Open Seat

Background and Candidates

State Sen. Jan Hochadel announced her retirement late last year after only two terms in the State Senate. This district has had close races within single digits the last two cycles, though Democrats are expected to easily retain the seat this cycle. State Rep. Jonathan “Jack” Fazzino faces off against Cheshire Town Council member Jim Jinks. The district contains Meriden and parts of Cheshire, Middlefield, and Middletown.

Fazzino won the party endorsement in May. He currently represents the 83rd State House seat, which he first won a narrow victory in 2022 by a 50.6-49.4 margin. Fazzino works as an attorney. Jinks on the other hand works is marketing. He is presenting himself as more of an “outsider” looking to bring change to Hartford. Jinks was first elected to the Cheshire Town Council in 2019. Jinks ran for the State House in 2020 against Rep. Craig Fishbein in the 90th state house seat, where he lost by 7 votes out of over 14,000 votes casted.

Both candidates support raising taxes on the wealthy, protecting residents from aggressive ICE tactics, and state investment into education. Both are similar on most major policy issues, though broadly Jinks has placed himself to the left of Fazzino. Jinks is supporting progressive challenger Josh Elliott in the governor’s race, while Fazzino supports incumbent Governor Ned Lamont. Jinks argues that Fazzino is a “political insider” and is benefiting from outside PAC money. Fazzino says Jinks’ argument is “bad faith, desperate attack…” noting the outside group is spending with no knowledge from him, or coordination.

Fazzino is running on his record as a state legislator, including education funding for Meriden and Cheshire schools. Jinks focuses his platform on affordability, shared values and civil rights. Both have noted their success running in a region of the state that is more of a toss-up in federal and local races.

Race Rating

Both candidates will likely do well in their hometowns. Fazzino in Meriden, and Jinks will do well in Cheshire. Fazzino does have name recognition in Cheshire as his district contains part of the town. Meriden has the largest number of Democrats in the district, which will likely benefit Fazzino.

Jinks’ progressive challenge will have a fair amount of support. Jinks has the support of many town council members in Cheshire. Fazzino has a number of prominent endorsements with strong support from Middletown officials, including Middletown Mayor Gene Nocera, State Rep. Kai Belton and State Rep. Brandon Chafee. Fazzino also has the backing of the party endorsement, Working Families Party, and Connecticut AFL-CIO. In addition, statewide officials, Attorney General William Tong, Treasurer Erick Russell and Comptroller Sean Scanlon have backed Fazzino.

Though Jinks will have a good performance in Cheshire, Fazzino’s more establishment backing and prominent labor organizations will likely win out in an older Democratic electorate.

Race Rating: Solid Fazzino

19th State Senate District – Republican Primary

Incumbent: Catherine Osten (D)

Candidates: Jason Guidone vs Mike France

Type of Primary: Opposing Party Nomination

Background and Candidates

Incumbent Democrat State Sen. Catherine Osten has managed to comfortably hold this Harris +6 seat since 2012. She ran ahead of the national ticket, winning 57-43 in 2024. Osten is one of the more moderate Democrats in the State Legislature. The 19th State Senate represents Columbia, Franklin, Lebanon, Hebron, Ledyard, Lisbon, Marlborough, Norwich, Sprague, and part of Montville.

Osten is widely favored in the Fall, but two Republicans, Jason Guidone and Mike France, seek to deny Osten an 8th term in the State Senate.

Guidone was the 2024 Republican nominee and is making a second bid for the seat. He is a former ESPN executive who lives in Hebron. Guidone is running on a standard Republican platform of lowering costs, protecting taxpayers, backing police and public safety, and putting families first. He states on his website that he is “not a career politician”.

France was the 2022 and 2024 Republican nominee for the 2nd Congressional District. He lost both races by wide margins to Rep. Joe Courtney. France is a former State Representative who served from 2015 to 2023 in the 42nd State House seat. He spent two decades in the Navy, before working as an engineer at the Submarine base. France is running on reducing government spending, ensuring a skilled workforce for the defense industry, and telling “people the truth”.

France was originally running for the 2nd Congressional District for a third try, though he dropped out of the race citing internal discontent with local Republican leaders. He said one of the reasons he entered the race was he felt he had a better chance to win in November than Guidone due to his experience and resume. Guidone has focused his attacks on France’s record in the legislature.

Race Rating

With both candidates not having much of a difference on policy, this is a race more based on perceived electability. Guidone has the party endorsement and a large support of the delegate base. Guidone got 77% of convention delegates, and France’s falling out with some local GOP officials likely does not help.

However, France does have more name ID due to his runs for Congress. The question is if voters will run it back, or go with France. I expect it to be a win for Guidone due to local support.

Race Rating: Likely Guidone

State House

4th State House District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Julio Concepcion (D)

Candidates: Julio Concepcion (Inc.) vs Venice Sotomayor

Type of Primary: Incumbent vs Challenger

Candidates and Background

In this deep-blue Hartford-based seat, Democratic incumbent Julio Concepcion faces Chef Venice Sotomayor. Concepcion first won his seat in a special election in 2018 after Incumbent Rep. Angel Arce resigned from the seat due to scandal.

This was one of two primaries in the state affected by mistakes made by the Secretary of State’s office. The CT Supreme Court ruled that Sotomayor could be on the ballot after Concepcion sought to have her petitions thrown out due to an administrative error. The CT Supreme Court ruled that Sotomayor should not be blamed for a mistake made by election officials. It’s common in Connecticut for incumbents to try to challenge signature petitions to prevent primaries. Sotomayor’s lawyer Alex Taubes accused Concepcion of trying to prevent the election unfairly.

As far as the race goes, there has been almost no coverage whatsoever. Concepcion does not have a campaign website or seem to be actively campaigning. Sotomayor has been running her campaign mostly on Facebook. She is running a challenge broadly on change and shaking up the status quo. Many of her posts lack much detail, and all her videos are just images with music of nothing specific. In one of her posts, she does list a few issues she’s running on; Real solutions, supporting business in underserved neighborhoods, affordable rentals/housing stability, and ensuring people don’t have to pick between their health and fresh food.

Race Rating

Sotomayor has a picture of Rep. John Larson holding one of her mailers, and has a graphic that Larson stands with her campaign. Though not the most formal of endorsements (and nothing says Larson explicitly endorsed Sotomayor), the reason for any involvement from Larson could be the fact that Concepcion endorsed Bronin over Larson in the congressional primary.

With a district with one of the lowest turnout rates in the state and a lack of active campaigning from Concepcion, Sotomayor could get a surprise upset. However, as the incumbent with the party endorsement, and Sotomayor relatively unknown, Concepcion remains favored.

Race Rating: Solid Concepcion

10th State House District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Henry Genga (D)

Candidates: Angie Parkinson vs Tyron Harris

Type of Primary: Open Seat

Background and Candidates

Longtime Incumbent Henry Genga decided to retire after 20 years in office. Genga is currently the oldest member of the State Legislature. He leaves behind a deep-blue Open Harris +38 seat based in East Hartford.

Two candidates face off, Angie Parkinson and Tyron Harris. Parkinson is an East Hartford Town Councilor, who also spent 25 years teaching social studies. Harris serves as the chair of the East Hartford Board of Education. He also serves as the town’s Human Resources Director.

Parkinson is running on healthcare for all, affordability, protecting/strengthening public education, tax fairness, fair wages, and protecting rights and democracy. Harris lists his campaign priorities as lowering the cost of living, strong public schools, affordable healthcare, prosperity/good jobs, and safe/united communities.

Race Rating

Parkinson won the party endorsement in the district. She also has the endorsements of Connecticut Working Families Party, AFL-CIO, American Federation of Teachers (AFT), and Building Trades.

Harris has the endorsement of East Hartford Mayor Connor Martin. Both candidates are prominent and are elected officials. Parkinson has a slight edge due to institutional support, but Harris should not be underestimated, holding the mayor’s endorsement. This race will likely be very close.

Race Rating: Lean Parkinson

31st State House District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Jill Barry (D)

Candidates: Moise “Moses” Carelus vs Anthony DiLizia

Type of Primary: Open Democratic Nomination, Incumbent running in Fall as Independent

Background and Candidates

Now why the long type of primary description. It’s a bit complicated. Out of nowhere, moderate Democrat State Rep. Jill Barry lost her party convention for her district by a large margin to Moses Carelus. Barry, who is one of the most conservative Democrats in the caucus, has found herself on the wrong side of progressives in her Glastonbury district who quietly saw her as vulnerable, as the district has shifted rapidly to the left in the Trump era. Barry’s voting with Republicans on a gun-safety measure, voting against the state budget, against paid family and medical leave, among other priorities, made her vulnerable.

Barry was caught off guard at the convention; as a single-town district, the party endorsement was open for any Democrat in the 31st State House Seat to cast a delegate vote. Organization took place behind the scenes without much attention, as to not alert Barry. We’ll cover more of this later, but Barry is cross-endorsed by Republicans, running as an Independent in the Fall after electing not to run in the primary, and has been on the campaign trail with Republican nominee for Governor Ryan Fazio in a Harris +25 seat.

With Barry not running in the primary, and Carelus holding the party endorsement, Glastonbury Town Councilor Anthony DiLizia decided to petition to jump into the race. DiLizia, an Army veteran, also serves as the executive director of a healthcare non-profit that delivers affirming/compassionate healthcare for the LGBTQIA+ community. Carelus, a former teacher and soccer coach, was recruited by a coalition of Democrats unhappy with Barry.

Carelus’ priorities include funding public education, affordability, holding Eversource accountable, and supporting Glastonbury’s future/standing up for Glastonbury’s values. DiLizia’s priorities include protecting CT from Trump’s policies, delivering lower costs, funding schools, supporting seniors, defending women’s rights, and fighting for affordable healthcare.

Race Rating

Though Carelus has the party endorsement and the early start to the campaign. DiLizia is well-known as an elected official, and petitioning indicates a level of baseline support. Also the convention was with a small group of voters, meaning that DiLizia might have a larger name ID than Carelus. However, due to Carelus’ early start, I would give the edge to him in this race, but DiLizia will make this a close race.

Race Rating: Likely Carelus

50th State House District – Republican Primary

Incumbent: Pat Boyd (D)

Candidates: Jadon MacCormack vs Anthony “Tony” Emilio

Type of Primary: Opposing Party Nomination

Background and Candidates

The most competitive general election district on the docket tonight with a primary. Incumbent Democrat Rep. Pat Boyd was unopposed last cycle in this seat based in Eastern Connecticut that Kamala Harris carried by a narrow 50-48 margin. Republicans were hoping to put a good nominee in this competitive seat.

This seat has garnered the most attention of any legislative primary in the state, for all the wrong reasons. Republicans at the district party convention nominated religious podcaster and political newcomer Jadon MacCormack as their nominee. Republicans did not do much vetting of MacCormack, so when MacCormack started posting about “Happy Straight Month” and calls for an “anti-pride month”, attention came to his previous posts. One of which included sharing an image of a noose in reaction to a gay marriage story, along with other horrid views such as saying women should not hold political power, and questioning the Holocaust death toll.

After the posts came out, Republicans immediately condemned MacCormack for his comments and told him to withdraw from the race. Unfortunately for them, MacCormack seemed to be enjoying the attention and stood by his “biblical beliefs. He went onto the radio show,  WTIC News/Talk 1080’s “Reese on the Radio” program, where he called for the government to put people to death who are “sodomites”, a comment that got national attention.

With MacCormack refusing to withdraw, and spending his time blasting Republican leaders for condemning him. Republicans scrambled to find a candidate to put on the ballot with days left until the petition deadline. Pomfret Businessman Anthony Emilio joined the race in light of MacCormack’s comments, saying “That’s not who our party is, and so I think it’s important that he – that someone runs against him and he loses.”Emilio, with efforts from the local and state GOP, rapidly gathered the signatures needed before the deadline. Emilio wants to focus on other issues. He said he wants the focus to be on Republican efforts to shrink government.

Race Rating

Republicans are in an awkward position, as MacCormack is the endorsed candidate on the ballot. With attention on the race in June and July, the hope for the GOP is that enough attention was put onto the race that Republicans voting in the primary know not to vote for MacCormack. The quick scramble, and Emilio having basically every Republican in the district, state Republican, and neighboring Republican state Reps and Senators’ endorsement should be enough to put him well ahead of MacCormack. Republicans do not want to be associated with MacCormack in any fashion, and having him as a general election candidate would not help.

Race Rating: Solid Emilio

71st State House District – Republican Primary

Incumbent: William Pizzuto (R)

Candidates: William “Bill” Pizzuto (Inc) vs Michael Grosso

Type of Primary: Incumbent vs Challenger

Background and Candidates

Rep. Bill Pizzuto (R-Middlebury) is the only Republican incumbent facing a challenge in the Legislature today. Pizzuto, who first won his seat in a 2022 special election, faces Waterbury Alderman Michael Grosso. The district contains all of Middlebury and part of Waterbury.

Pizzuto has won the last two general elections of this seat uncontested in a seat Donald Trump won 54-45. Pizzuto is a retired administrator who worked at UConn. Grosso, who is his first term as a Waterbury Alderman, is a driver groundsman and equipment operator.

Grosso has gone after Pizzuto for putting language in a bill that blocked a major warehouse development in Waterbury instead of letting local officials decide on the next steps for the project. He is running to ensure that local officials and residents have more say over projects instead of state officials. Grosso is also running on rejecting the status quo.

Grosso is running on lower taxes, more accountability, and economic growth. Pizzuto’s campaign platform also calls for fighting for lower property taxes, driving down energy prices, holding the line on spending, and backing emergency responders.

Race Rating

This should be an interesting race. I am unsure how much Republican primary voters have been focused on the warehouse project, or how they perceive Pizzuto’s reasons for blocking it. But local issues can be very salient in primaries such as this one.

Due to holding the party endorsement and being the incumbent , I give the edge to Pizzuto, though it’ll be interesting to see how each candidate performs in their hometown.

Race Rating: Likely Pizzuto

92nd State House District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Pat Dillon (D)

Candidates: Pat Dillon (Inc) vs Eli Sabin vs Justin Farmer

Type of Primary: Incumbent vs Challengers

Background and Candidates

Longtime State Rep. Pat Dillon faces two challengers in former New Haven Alder Eli Sabin and former Hamden Legislative Council Member Justin Farmer.

Dillon is the longest-serving House member seeking reelection this cycle. Dillon was first elected all the way back in 1984, when Ronald Reagan was on the ballot for a second term. 57 votes were all that separated Dillon from her first bid for the seat in 1982 against Republican incumbent Rep. Rosalind Berman. She later beat Berman in a rematch in 1984 by a 52-48 margin.

No Republican was able to recreate Berman’s unique coalition, as Dillon would win 80-20 in 1986 and never face a close race. The district is one of the most Democratic in the state, voting for Kamala Harris by a massive 84-13 margin. Dillon faced a primary once in her 42-year tenure before this year, in 2010 when she beat Sergio Rodriguez by a comfortable 66-34 margin.

Dillon, who is 77, faces primary challengers that are decades younger than her. Eli Sabin, 26, a former Alder who resigned in January to launch his campaign. He moved to Westville to establish residency. He represented Ward 1 (which contains Yale University) and Ward 7 (Downtown and East Rock) during his 6 years on the board. The district contains part of Ward 3, and Wards 23, 24, 25, 26. Sabin is running on generational change, casting his campaign as about “new energy” needed in the party.

Farmer, 32, a former three-term Hamden city councilmember, is a founding member of Connecticut DSA. He is one of two primary candidates backed by CT DSA this cycle (Maryam Khan is the other). He works as an environmental consultant. Farmer also casts his challenge on generational change with “different takes on what kinds of new leaders will emerge“.

Candidates agree on major issues, though Farmer positions himself to both Sabin and Dillon’s left as a DSA member. All three candidates are progressives who said they will push back against the Trump administration. Candidates are also running on affordability concerns and efforts to rein ICE.

Dillon is running on her record and ability to bring funding to the district, while Sabin and Farmer argue that the current political environment demands change.

Race Rating

With three candidates running, this will divide the vote up quite a bit. I believe that Sabin and Farmer will divide the anti-Dillon vote, leading Dillon to win with a large plurality or close to 50% of the vote. Neither Sabin or Farmer have been running to minimize the other candidate, so both will bring their bases to the polls. Farmer’s support from the DSA, for example, will give him a solid floor in the race.

Pat Dillon has the endorsements of the local Democratic Party with the party endorsement, its town chair, unions, advocacy groups, and a large number of elected officials. Sabin has the endorsements of a number of ward committee members but more notably New Haven Mayor Justin Elicker.

Due to Sabin and Farmer splitting the opposition vote, I expect Dillon to win somewhat comfortably tonight.

Race Rating: Likely Dillon

97th State House District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Al Paolillo

Candidates: Leland Moore vs Wildaliz Bermudez

Type of Primary: Open Seat

Background and Candidates

After Longtime State Sen. Martin Looney announced his retirement, it set off a quick game of musical chairs. Incumbent State Rep. Al Paolillo was Looney’s chosen successor. Paolillo faced no challenge for the seat. Paolillo left his State House seat, where two candidates quickly jumped into the race: Morris Cove Alder Leland Moore and Executive Director of New Haven Fair Rent Commission Wildaliz Bermúdez.

Moore, only five months into his first term as Alder, found himself running for a newly open State Representative seat. He won the Ward 18 Alder seat in a Democratic primary by a wide margin last year before easily winning the general election. Moore works as Assistant Attorney General, working under Attorney General William Tong. He has previously worked as a legislative advisor for the Board of Pardons and Paroles and as a staff attorney for the Connecticut Sentencing Commission.

Wildaliz Bermúdez is a former member of the Hartford City Council, where she was elected as part of the Working Families Party. She was on the council for 6 years before resigning to move to New Haven. On the council, she, along with other Working Families members, tried to move the council far left of center on issues such as immigration, tenant rights, police reform, and accountability. As Director of the Fair Rent Commission, Bermúdez operates the system behind the commission, from mediation of conflicts to investigation to educating city residents.

Both Moore and Bermúdez have similar policy positions on major issues. In a radio interview, both agreed on a number of goals such as more local education aid, higher marginal taxes on millionaires, ditching a $45 million+ plan for a pool, reconsidering Yale’s special state-given tax breaks if they cave to the Trump administration, and that the state should pursue stricter regulation of private utilities. Both praised each other’s work in the community during the interview.

Race Rating

Moore won the party endorsement earlier this year. He also has the endorsement of President Pro Tempore of the Sen. Martin Looney and current Rep. Al Paolillo. Moore has also received support from CT AFL-CIO and AFT Connecticut. Moore also recieed the endorsement of his boss, Attorney General William Tong.

Bermúdez has the support of New Haven Mayor Justin Elicker. Notably, the second candidate Elicker has backed, who doesn’t have the party endorsement. Bermúndz also has the support of Former State Rep. Bob Megan and Former Mayor Toni Harp.

Moore seems to have consolidated establishment support and union support, but the endorsement of Elicker is notable for Bermúdez. I believe Moore is favored, but Bermúdez will keep this a competitive race.

Race Rating: Likely Moore

118th State House District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Frank Smith (D)

Candidates: Toni Lombardi vs Chris Saley

Type of Primary: Open Seat

Background and Candidates

Incumbent State Rep. Frank Smith is retiring after three terms in the State House. Smith’s departure in this Milford-based district allowed two Democrats to jump into this open seat: Milford Alderwoman Toni Lombardi and Milford Director of Public Works Chris Saley.

Both candidates’ platforms touch upon similar issues. Lombardi’s platform emphasises public education, tackling the cost of living, and focusing on coastal resiliency, specifically investment in flood mitigation and infrastructure improvements that protect Milford’s shoreline. Saley owns the Bridgewater Restaurant and owns a local real estate development company. His platform focuses on supporting small businesses and encouraging local economic growth, strong schools, affordability, and protecting Milford’s 17+ miles of beaches from chronic erosion (beach resiliency).

Race Rating

Lombardi has the party endorsement. She also has the support of the CT Working Families Party, AFL-CIO, and American Federation of Teachers. Saley has the support of retiring State Rep. Frank Smith

Lombardi’s institutional support should be enough to get her a win here, but Saley could come close with Smith’s endorsement.

Race Rating: Likely Lombardi

Conclusion

Candidates with the party endorsement are still widely favored in Connecticut primaries. Tonight will be a good test to see how much that holds up. Party endorsements in CT lead to wide institutional support from elected officials and labor unions. However, many challengers have chances for upsets tonight, but the focus will likely be on the Democratic incumbents in SD-2 and HD-92, while also seeing what happens in HD-50. There are not too many ideological primaries on the docket, but an opportunity in some districts for change will be watched.

As always, these ratings are forecasts based on the information available before Election Day—not guarantees. I’ll be following the results as they come in tonight and will revisit these predictions afterward to evaluate what I got right, what I got wrong, and what the outcomes reveal about Connecticut politics.

Thanks for Reading!
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If you have a question, tip, corrections, or want to contact me for any reason. Please email contact@ctelectionguide.com

Rep. Josh Elliott celebrates at the state Democratic Convention, Saturday, May 16, 2026, in Hartford, Conn. Credit to: Jessica Hill / CT Mirror

Overview

Welcome to the CT Election Guide’s August 11th Ultimate Primary Guide.

In Part 1 of the guide, I will cover statewide and congressional primaries. In Part 2, I will cover primaries in the state legislature.

There are four primaries to cover. We will start with the Democratic primaries for Governor and the 1st Congressional Distrct. Governor Ned Lamont and Rep. John Larson face challengers for renomination. Than we will cover two Republican primaries where Republican challengers hope to challenge Democratic incumbents in the 4th and 5th Congressional Districts

I will also give a rating for each race and a prediction of who I think will emerge victorious on the 11th. There are several competitive races on the ballot, so expect some fascinating results.

Let’s get started!

Voting Information

Per state rules, Connecticut is a closed primary state. This means only registered voters of that party can vote in a primary election on August 11th. In Connecticut, a plurality of voters are registered unaffiliated (about 42.2% as of 2025); that proportion of state voters will be unable to vote in the election. However, unaffiliated voters have until August 10th at noon to register with a party, if they plan to vote on primary day.

If a voter wants to switch parties to vote in a primary (From Democratic to Republican, or vice versa), they had to do so by May 11th. If a voter wanted to vote during early voting and they are unaffiliated, they had until July 31st at Noon. A new voter can file a voter application in person with the registrar of voters in their town by noon on the business day prior to the day they want to vote.

In Connecticut, only contested primaries take place on the ballot. If a race is uncontested, there is no primary in that district. Due to a Democratic primary for Governor, every registered Democrat in the state can vote in the primary.

There are no statewide primaries for Republicans, as all statewide offices were decided at the May Convention, and no challengers met the requirements or attempted to force a primary. There are primaries in some congressional districts and legislative seats. If you’re a Registered Republican looking to vote, you can use this map to see if you live within the district boundaries. There are primaries in the 4th and 5th Congressional Districts, the 19th State Senate Seat, and the 50th and 71st State House Seats.

Early voting is available for this election. Early voting takes place from August 3rd to August 9th. Extended voting hours will take place on the 4th and 6th.

Monday, August 3rd – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Tuesday, August 4th – 8:00 am to 8:00 pm
Wednesday, August 5th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Thursday, August 6th – 8:00 am to 8:00 pm
Friday, August 7th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Saturday, August 8th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Sunday, August 9th – 10:00 am to 6:00 pm

Voters must vote in the assigned early voting location for their town of voter registration. The list of early voting locations can be found here. The majority of the early voting locations are in Town Hall, community centers, or the library.

Absentee ballots are also available for this election. One can request a ballot at the online portal here. Starting this cycle, after a 2024 voting referendum passed, voters no longer need to provide a specific excuse to vote in any election. Voters can request an absentee ballot for any reason. If voters need a paper application for an absentee ballot, use this link and scroll down to print a paper application. The deadline to request an absentee ballot is August 10th.

If you need to hand out an absentee ballot application to someone, please follow the state’s strict rules concerning this action. There are limits on who you can get an absentee ballot application for (immediate family), and the number of ballots you can request.

CT Election Guide Race Rating System

These ratings represent my assessment of each race based on available polling, fundraising, endorsements, campaign activity, geographic strengths, and the overall political environment. They are forecasts—not guarantees—and races can shift before Election Day.

• Solid – Expected margin of 15% or more
• Likely – Expected margin of 8–15%
• Lean – Expected margin of 3–8%
• Toss-Up – Expected margin of less than 3%

Statewide Primaries

Governor – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: Ned Lamont

Candidates: Gov. Ned Lamont (Inc.) vs State Rep. Josh Elliott

Type of Primary: Incumbent vs Challenger

2022 Election Result: Lamont +13 – Ned Lamont (D) – 56.0%, Bob Stefanowski (R) – 43.0%

2024 Presidential Results: Harris +14.5 – Kamala Harris (D) – 56.4%, Donald Trump (R) – 41.9%

2026 General Election Rating: Solid D

Background

On March 13th, 2006, a wealthy businessman from Greenwich, Ned Lamont, launched a primary campaign to challenge sitting Senator Joe Lieberman for his seat in the U.S Senate. Lieberman was heavily criticized for his support of the war in Iraq and his close relationship with President Bush at the time. This challenge would start the beginning of Ned Lamont’s prominent place in Connecticut politics.

Lamont’s candidacy at the time became more of a single-issue primary against the War, and Lamont was able to seize the progressive energy of the 2006 cycle, culminating in an upset win over Lieberman in the primary. He later lost the general election that November. Lamont was able to grasp the state’s progressive flank; his challenge to the left of Lieberman was notable in a state that rarely saw contested primaries against incumbents.

Now, two decades later, Lamont, the two-term governor, is attempting a third four-year term in this solidly Democratic state. Lamont now finds himself as part of the “establishment” facing the irony of being challenged to his left by State Rep. Josh Elliott (D-Hamden). The first primary against an incumbent Governor since 1978.

Who is Josh Elliott?

State Rep. Josh Elliott first came into the legislature after winning a seat in the legislature in 2016. Elliott holds a BA from Ithaca College and received a JD from Quinnipiac School of Law. He entered the race before House Speaker Brendan Sharkey announced his retirement. Elliott’s campaign says he is the reason he pushed Sharkey into retirement, which is prominently claimed on his website, though Sharkey disagrees with that assertion in strong terms.

Elliott is a founder of the Progressive caucus in the legislature, which has slowly grown over the last few cycles. Elliott has played a large role in supporting economic and labor protections. Two of the bills he sponsored were for Paid Family & Medical Leave and for Paid Sick Days. He has pushed for Connecticut to be the first state to remove the cost for incarcerated individuals to make phone calls to loved ones. He currently serves as Deputy Speaker and Majority Caucus Co-Chair.

This is not Josh Elliott’s first attempt at higher office. In 2022, Elliott ran for the open Secretary of State race. It did not go so well for him. He was the only candidate who failed to qualify for the ballot at the convention. Elliott was also running to maintain his seat in the legislature during that race. He bowed out, electing not to gather signatures to petition, and ran for re-election to his state house seat. Candidates returning to their state legislative seats around convention time when they don’t do well is common in Connecticut.

However, during Elliott’s second attempt for higher office. Elliott is simultaneously running for both his State House Seat (88th District) and the Governor’s Race. Elliott was noncommittal about his run for governor for most of the cycle. He at one point said he would only challenge Lamont only if he won the party endorsement at the convention, saying he didn’t want to run a Line B candidacy. Earlier this year, however, Elliott decided that he spent so much time on his campaign that he has to see it all the way. He also did not risk losing his House seat, something Elliott said is important to him to help make change in the state.

Elliott successfully raised the $335,000 needed to qualify for public financing. This qualified him for $3.75 million grant. He got the money about 5 weeks before the August primary, leaving him a quick turnaround to get his message on the airwaves. Though he was allowed to run for both his State House seat and Governor at the same time, he could not spend any of his grant money on his State House seat. To avoid any issues with campaign finance rules, Elliott hasn’t even formed a campaign committee for his State House Race, as he plans to spend no money. Elliott doesn’t face any Democratic opposition in the primary and was nominated for another term at the convention for his seat. Though he faces a Republican opponent, Elliott’s 88th State House Seat is one Kamala Harris won 70-28, so he doesn’t need to spend much of anything in the general.

Campaign Issues

Elliott’s campaign has been defined by anger towards Lamont’s refusal to tax the rich more. Progressive anger towards the Governor also increased when Lamont vetoed two bills during the 2025 legislative session. One on affordable housing, and another on benefits for striking workers. Elliott’s vowed that the Governor would face a challenge after those vetoes, and eventually he became the candidate to challenge the Governor. Lamont did pass a version of the affordable housing bill later in 2025, though some argue the bill wasn’t as strong as the initial one. Though many agreed it was still beneficial. Lamont did not pass the bill for striking workers.

Elliott has proposed a similar millionaire tax to Massachusetts, though at it’s core Elliott hopes for a “fair tax structure” that taxes those who make $1 million annually. Elliott also does not support the state’s fiscal guardrails, enacted in 2017 to force the state to pay down pension debt. He believes it should be changed to allow easier investments for infrastructure, investment, and housing. Elliott has also proposed less reliance on local property taxes.

One of Elliott’s more aggressive proposals is to take on Eversource by allowing towns to individually own their utility infrastructure. To allow a public option that can allow municipalities cheaper rates, or for towns to form or join electric utilities in an effort to cut Eversource’s power away. The governor has argued that this proposal will cost tens of billions of dollars that the state does not have.

Elliott has also attacked the Governor in more personal terms, saying “his campaign is where good ideas go to die”. He also has advertisements on air attacking Lamont’s wealth and how his family has been rich for generations. Due to his personal wealth, Elliott says Lamont cannot understand the state’s affordability. He also heavily critiqued the governor for taking credit for policies passed by the legislature, saying the Governor didn’t actually do anything. “That’s what a billionaire does. They take other people’s ideas and say ‘Well, this was his all along.’” Elliott said. He also called the Governor “dangerously naive” during the debate, and said Lamont’s campaign is the “Temu version” of his. Elliott did attack Lamont as a billionaire a few times, though the very wealthy Ned Lamont is not known as a billionaire specifically.

Ned Lamont spent the majority of the cycle ignoring Josh Elliott, trying to avoid pushing attention to his challenger. However, Elliott slowly gained some momentum and qualified for a primary with 25% of convention delegates. Lamont has had to be more on the defensive end.

The Governor has touted his accomplishments during his tenure as Governor, including a minimum wage increase, actions to replace SNAP benefits, and investments in early childhood education. The governor has also emphasized fiscal responsibility as he has focused on paying off the state’s heavy pension debt. Lamont, in the last few weeks, has ramped up his attacks on Elliott, specifically at the debate, dismissing Elliott as someone full of sound bites and no accomplishments. In the final week of the campaign, Lamont has started to go more negative on Elliott, attacking him for missed votes during his campaign.

Race Rating

Nationally, primary season this cycle shows there is an energy in the Democratic Party for more progressive policy and overall change. In addition, any person running for a third governor term is likely to face some level of opposition for “overstaying their welcome”. I believe this race will be closer than many people expect.

Governor Lamont is favored in this race. I see him winning by around 20 points. I do believe Elliott will win Hamden and likely New Haven. He will maintain steady support around the state, with a few pockets of winning towns. It’ll be interesting to see how Elliott does in the Farmington Valley, with a lot of upper-middle-class Democratic voters showing more progressive bona fides; Elliott may be able to get some strong performances in towns like West Hartford, Glastonbury, Farmington, and Avon. Connecticut hasn’t had too many primaries with a clear “establishment vs progressive” battle. The closest was the 2018 Lt Gov Democratic primary between former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz and labor organizer Eva Zimmerman. Bysiewicz won 62-38, but Zimmerman was commended for a great performance against a longtime statewide figure. I think Elliott will have a similar performance and pattern: outright winning a few towns, but holding a steady 35%-40% in a majority of towns.

Lamont holds very strong support from the legislature, though a few members of the progressive caucus back Elliott, including State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest and State Rep. Laurie Sweet. This is the only race with a substantial amount of recent polling (for a Connecticut race at least). The latest poll from Impact CT had Lamont leading Elliott 48-21. A decrease for Lamont, who led their earlier poll 58-20, but notably didn’t show much of an increase for Elliott. Many voters are undecided, and I suspect many of those voters will go to Elliott.

The governor does have a few things in his favor; all polling indicates a stark age divide. Elliott does very well with younger voters; Lamont dominates with older voters. The latter come out at much higher rates in late summer primaries. In addition, Lamont still remains popular with Democratic primary voters overall, holding a 63% favorable, 20% unfavorable rating in the same poll.

Most polling has shown Lamont in the 48-55% range, though Elliott has steadily risen from 7% in the first UNH poll in November to 23% in the one from Late June. Lamont led 53-23 in that poll. A final poll from Sacred Heart University/WFSB/CT Insider showed Lamont with a massive 57-22 margin over Elliott.

Lamont is heavily favored, but don’t count out a strong performance from Josh Elliott. An outright win would break CT politics, but stranger things have happened.

Race Rating: Solid Lamont
Prediction: Lamont +20 (Lamont 60%, Elliott 40%)

Congressional Primaries

1st Congressional District – Democratic Primary

Incumbent: John Larson

Candidates: Rep. John Larson (Inc.) vs Luke Bronin vs Jillian Gilchrest vs Ruth Fortune

Type of Primary: Incumbent vs Challengers

2024 General Election Result: Larson +28.3 – John Larson (D) – 63.1%, Jim Griffin(R) – 34.8%

2024 Presidential Results: Harris +22.9 – Kamala Harris (D) – 60.6%, Donald Trump (R) – 37.7%

2026 General Election Rating: Solid D

Background

For the first time in modern state history, an Incumbent member of the U.S. House of Representatives faces a battle for renomination. Connecticut was the last state to adopt legally regulated primaries, which passed in the legislature in 1955. However, this method only allowed a challenge based on convention delegates, not signatures. In 2003, the General Assembly ruled that candidates can petition their way onto the ballot if they fail to meet the convention delegate threshold.

Rep. John Larson of East Hartford has had nothing much to worry about electorally after he won his primary in 1998 in an open seat by a close 46-42 margin against Secretary of State Miles Rapoport. A primary challenger has never made the ballot against Larson, though former Capitol Hill Staffer Muad Hrezi made a solid attempt in 2022. He fundraised over $500,000, but did not gather enough delegates or signatures to make the ballot.

Larson, a mainstay of Connecticut politics, has held top positions in the House of Representatives during his nearly three-decade-long tenure, including a stint as the Chair of the House Democratic Caucus from 2009 to 2013. His main issue has been Social Security, an issue he has worked hard to promote with his landmark bill Social Security 2100 Act.

The congressman now faces three challengers looking to deny him a 15th term in Congress.

Candidates

Larson’s most prominent challenger is Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin. Bronin, who was the mayor of the capital city from 2016 to 2024, won his 2015 Democratic primary by knocking out the incumbent Mayor Pedro Segarra by a 55-45 margin. He easily won his 2015 and 2019 mayoral races in a deep-blue city.

Bronin is known for his high-profile background. A BA and JD from Yale University, Rhodes Scholar, a deployment in Afghanistan where he worked on the US Military Anti-Corruption task force. He was Deputy Assistant Secretary of Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes at the US Department of the Treasury during the Obama Administration. Before launching his mayoral campaign, he served as Chief Legal Counsel to Governor Dannel Malloy.

Larson’s other opponents include State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest (D-West Hartford) and Hartford Board of Education member Ruth Fortune.

Jillian Gilchrest entered the political scene in 2018 after she ousted 12-term incumbent State Rep. Andy Fleischmann in a Democratic Primary in a 52-48 victory. Gilchrest is known as one of the most progressive members in the Connecticut Legislature, championing reproductive freedom and establishing Connecticut’s paid family and medical leave program. Before she entered state politics, she worked in women’s health, safety, and social justice organizations in leadership and advocacy roles. She also has previously served on the West Hartford Board of Education and works as an adjunct faculty member at the University of Saint Joseph and the University of Hartford.

Ruth Fortune was the first person to enter the race to challenge Larson. Appointed to the Hartford Board of Education in 2024, she came to the United States from Haiti as a young undocumented immigrant. She testified in favor of financial aid for undocumented students before the General Assembly in 2016. Fortune, a graduate of UConn School of Law, is an associate at Wiggin & Dana. She specializes as a trust and estate lawyer.

Campaign

John Larson thought Luke Bronin was kidding when he told him he was planning to run for his congressional seat. Bronin told Larson to reconsider seeking a term at his age. Larson told him that he would run for another term. The formerly close allies have headed towards a brutal primary.

The race didn’t receive a ton of attention until Bronin upset Larson at the convention for the party endorsement. After Larson’s allies maneuvered to ensure Jillian Gilchrest made the ballot with 15% of delegates, an effort to hopefully split the challenger vote, Bronin took a lead in the second round in a room with about 400 delegates and won the party endorsement 52-48 over Larson. This meant that Bronin would appear on top of the ballot in the primary. Challengers are sorted alphabetically, which meant Larson would appear at the bottom.

Fortune had to take the difficult path and gather signatures to qualify for the ballot as she did not receive enough delegates. She successfully did, and made history as the first person to successfully petition onto the ballot against an incumbent member of Congress.

In a race where candidates agreed on the majority of issues, the campaign focused on the few differences they had in policy. Overall, the candidates are all progressives, though Gilchrest and Fortune are to the left of Bronin and Larson.

Campaign fundraising emerged as a main issue in the primary. Larson has attacked Bronin for being a “corporate moderate” candidate of the billionaires, saying Bronin is there to their bidding. Bronin fought back, saying he is progressive, saying he wants to tax the rich and abolish ICE, attacking Larson for also taking donations from billionaires, and saying he’s not there to do anyone’s bidding. Bronin has attacked Larson for fundraising with PACs money, which is about half of Larson’s fundraising. With Larson and Bronin dominating fundraising, Gilchrest has attacked both of them for having big money in politics, saying she is the only candidate working to get “big money out of politics”.

Though Larson argued for months that his challengers weren’t different from him on policy, running on his experience and his leadership on Social Security. He has changed his argument to position Bronin to the right of him, saying he’s the true progressive. His initial argument led Bronin to focus his bid on a generational argument for change, as Bronin hasn’t staked out any major issue different from Larson’s record. Bronin says in his ads that John Larson is a good man, but “I’m running for Congress right now because I think we’ve got to bring a whole different type of energy to this fight…” Bronin says in one of his ads.

Race Rating

Gilchrest and Fortune have struggled to fundraise in this race. Both have raised $160,000 and $105,000 respectively over the course of their campaigns. Though admirable, both have focused on grassroots efforts and talking to voters. The issue is they’ve been drowned out by the $3,000,000 fundraising of Bronin, and $2,700,000 fundraising of Larson, leaving this race as between two candidates.

Larson has the endorsements of the federal delegation and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. He has focused on his labor support, touting endorsements from Labor, Trade, Planned Parenthood, Etc. Larson also holds many endorsements from his hometown of East Hartford and from multiple state legislative members.

Bronin did get a national endorsement from former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg. In Connecticut, Bronin has received local endorsements from several elected officials in Hartford, including Mayor Arunan Arunanpalam and Council President TJ Clarke. Bronin has also received endorsements from Newington Mayor Jon Trister, Rocky Hill Mayor Allan Smith, Cromwell Mayor James Demetriades, and Wethersfield Mayor Ken Lesser.

Gilchrest has received a number of endorsements in the State Legislature, including a group endorsement signed by 18 of her female legislative colleagues. Gilchrest also holds endorsements from progressive groups such as Indivisible CT and Citizens Impeachment.

My expectations for the primary are a narrow win for Larson. I 100% believe a Bronin upset is possible. Larson, however, has an edge due to the opposition vote being split between three candidates. There were only two polls in the race. One was a Larson internal from January (Larson 49-26), and one was a VoteVets poll (an organization that supports Bronin) that had Bronin leading Larson (Bronin 38-30), but both are months old. Although private polls have shown Bronin with a lead, nothing has been publicly released in months. One thing Bronin has going for him is that, unlike the Governor’s race, the VoteVets poll had him doing well with both older and younger voters, indicating, unlike Elliott, he doesn’t need to rely on younger voters for victory.

Larson will get a large margin out of East Hartford. Bronin will likely win Hartford. The question is how the rest of the 27-town district will go. West Hartford is a bit of a toss-up as Gilchrest will get a fair amount of the vote in her hometown. Larson will do well in towns like Bristol with a large working-class population. The more rural towns in the northern part of the district will likely favor Larson, though Bronin has been making a play there as well. Middletown is a toss-up with a mix of both progressive university voters (Wesleyan) and working-class voters. Expectations from polling are that Ruth Fortune will get about 5% of the vote, and Jillian Gilchrest will get about 10% of the vote.

Overall, this appears to be a highly competitive primary between Larson and Bronin. Larson enters Election Day with a slight advantage due to his established political network and the likelihood that the anti-Larson vote remains divided among multiple candidates. However, Bronin’s fundraising, endorsements, and reported private polling suggest an upset would not be surprising. The race is likely to be decided by turnout and the margins in the larger towns in the district (away from the candidates’ bases), including West Hartford, Middletown, Manchester, Windsor and Bristol.

Race Rating: Lean Larson

Prediction: Larson +3 (Larson 45%, Bronin 42%, Gilchrest 9%, Fortune 4%)

4th Congressional District – Republican Primary

Incumbent: Jim Himes (D)

Candidates: Michael Goldstein vs Daniel Miressi

Type of Primary: Opposition Party Nomination

2024 General Election Result: Himes +23.8 – Jim Himes (D) – 61.1%, Michael Goldstein (R) – 37.3%

2024 Presidential Results: Harris +23.4 – Kamala Harris (D) – 60.9%, Donald Trump (R) – 37.5%

2026 General Election Rating: Solid D

Candidates

Michael Goldstein, a physician and attorney from Greenwich, faces Daniel Miressi, a hockey coach and former professional hockey player, for the right to take on Democratic Rep. Jim Himes in the 4th Congressional District in November. No Republican has won the district since former Rep. Chris Shays won the district in 2006. Himes would unseat Shays in 2008.

Goldstein was the 2024 Republican nominee in the District. He also ran for the nomination in 2020 and 2022. In 2020, he did not qualify for the primary after forming a campaign committee. In 2022, Goldstein lost the Republican primary to party-endorsed Jayme Stevenson by a 40-60 margin. Goldstein has the party endorsement for the second time in a row.

Miressi qualified for the primary at the party convention. Miressi considered running in the district in 2024, but ultimately did not. He was also the Republican nominee for the 25th State Senate against Connecticut State Senate Majority Leader Bob Duff in 2022. He lost the general election 35-61 to Duff

On his campaign website, Goldstein emphasizes his experience as both a doctor and lawyer to pinpoint issues residents face. He also proposes the Goldstein Plan on issues he supports and opposes. Some of these include restoring the SALT deduction, ending cashless bail, focusing on parental rights, unwavering support for Israel, securing our borders, and protecting the Second Amendment.

On his campaign website, Miressi first explains that Republicans are the “big tent party” in Connecticut. His campaign platform is Family, Community, and Economy. He says Himes has forgotten what it means to be a “Nutmegger”. He says he will fight to lower the cost of living, parental rights, and will focus on election integrity and trust, while focusing on accountability in Washington.

Race Rating

Due to two recent primaries in this district, we do actually have some information on how a primary could go. Goldstein is favored due to the party endorsement and name ID from repeated runs in the seat. Goldstein’s primary victory in 2024 was supported by winning 79% of the vote in Greenwich, which made the margin of difference in the race.

It should be noted that turnout has been very low in recent primaries in the seat. Low-profile primaries in a Safe Democratic district likely contributed to low turnout. Only 16,517 ballots were cast in the 2022 Republican primary, and only 8,025 ballots were cast in the 2024 Republican primary. This could lead to an unexpected result.

Neither candidate has raised much money. Goldstein has raised 21k, and taken a 25k loan, and Miressi has raised 10k. Goldstein’s numerous runs may lead voters to want a different alternative, especially as this is his fourth run for this office. Despite having the party endorsement in 2024, Goldstein only won 54-46. Due to this, Miressi may have a chance at an upset, but Goldstein is favored.

Race Rating: Likely Goldstein

5th Congressional District – Republican Primary

Incumbent: Jahana Hayes (D)

Candidates: Chris Shea vs Jonathan De Barros

Type of Primary: Opposition Party Nomination

2024 General Election Result: Hayes +6.8 – Jahana Hayes (D) – 53.4%, George Logan (R) – 46.6%

2024 Presidential Results: Harris +6.2– Kamala Harris (D) – 52.0%, Donald Trump (R) – 46.4%

2026 General Election Rating: Solid D

Candidates

Chris Shea, a firefighter and retired Navy Seal, faces community leader Jonathan De Barros for the right to take on Rep. Jahana Hayes in Connecticut’s most competitive congressional seat. After almost unseating Hayes in 2022, the CT GOP spends most of their limited resources in the 5th District.

Chris Shea is the preferred candidate by the CT GOP. He has fundraised far more than any other Republican congressional candidate in the state, raising $311,000 this cycle. He did raise about the same amount of money as Rep. Hayes in Q1 this year, 163k to 166k. Shea founded the organization Hero to Hero, a nonprofit that encourages military veterans to consider second careers as first responders. Since retiring from his military career, Shea works as a firefighter lieutenant at the North Haven Fire Department. His military career started when he joined the US Navy in 1991. His time in service included operational tours with deployments and various joint special operations in Sarajevo, Afghanistan, and Mexico.

Jonathan De Barros is the founder of the Phoenix Youth Foundation, a nonprofit that works to mentor at-risk youth, promote vocational training, and teaching conflict resolution. De Barros has received attention for his role in the shooting and killing a young man in October 1996. De Barros was convicted of murder, attempted murder, and assault with a firearm. In 2000, the Connecticut Appellate Court overturned his original murder conviction, ruling that a trial judge blocked critical evidence supporting De Barros’s claim of self-defense in the shooting.

His manslaughter charge went to trial again, but ended in a hung jury. De Barros eventually accepted a plea bargain under the Alford Doctrine, which stated he could maintain his innocence, but the state had enough evidence to potentially convict him. The Connecticut Board of Pardons and Paroles issued De Barros an absolute pardon in 2022. De Barros says he was wrongfully incarcerated for 19 years due to flawed prosecution and maintains his self-defense view.

De Barros filed a defamation suit during his campaign against four supporters of Shea for allegedly calling him a “murderer”. Shea is not a defendant in the suit. The suit seeks a gag order to stop the four defendants from repeating statements about him being a murderer. De Barros says the supporters said those statements on Facebook Live broadcasts, social media, and during the Republican nominating convention.

Campaign Issues and Race Rating

Both Shea and De Barros align themselves as conservative Republicans. De Barros calls himself a “MAGA patriot”. De Barros has heavily critiqued other Republicans in the state. Last year, the Capitol Police investigated him for social media posts about Republican State Chair Ben Proto, Senate Minority Leader Stephen Harding, and Sen. Rob Sampson, but the Capitol Police determined nothing De Barros said was a threat.

Shea’s campaign website shows issues focusing on protecting families. Specifically, stopping illegal immigration and “standing against woke ideologies that threaten our children’s future”. He also emphasizes lowering the cost of living by reducing the tax burden and promoting practical housing solutions. He also says America should stand with Israel, advocates for American military strength, and will fight to improve the VA.

De Barros stakes out similar positions on immigration, dedicating effort to keep borders secure. He does add more specific positions, adding that any governor or elected official who obstructs immigration and customs enforcement should be removed from office and arrested by Homeland Security. He also takes positions on improving the VA and wants to enact laws that would prevent bills in Connecticut that allow parents not to be informed. De Barros promotes charter schools as an alternative to a failing education system. He stakes out his plans as a “New Reconstruction for the 5th district,” akin to the Reconstruction after the Civil War to rebuild trust in institutions.

Shea is favored here on Tuesday. His strong support from local officials and strong fundraising should give him a solid victory. However, similar to the 4th Congressional District, turnout will be low, so an upset isn’t impossible depending on who can get their base out.

It’s unknown how the defamation lawsuit will play out with voters. It is one of the few things in this primary that has broken into the news cycle. De Barros may be able to generate some excitement among his base supporters. Also, with Shea being stronger with party support, De Barros may be able to generate an “Establishment” vs “Outsider” message, which can be effective in a Republican primary where many primary voters are unhappy with the state party leaders for continued losses in the state.

De Barros has to use more of a grassroots approach, having fundraised only $25,000 this cycle, about 1/12 of Shea’s haul. The money Shea has will likely allow him to get his name more in front of voters. Shea’s profile is also appealing for a district close to the federal level that may attract voters.

Race Rating: Solid Shea

Summary

Connecticut’s August 11th primaries offer a snapshot of where both parties head going into the general election. Notably for Democrats, the Governor’s race will test the strength of the party’s progressive wing against an incumbent who remains broadly popular. The 1st Congressional District could produce one of the most watched contests of the night. Luke Bronin can truly upset Rep. John Larson, but structural advantages remain for both incumbents. If Bronin wins, it would create a shock for incumbents across the country, as Congressman Larson has faced no scandals or a prominent reason to be out of office. In addition, this is not a race that has faced an ideological argument for change. Races on generational change on its own rarely take out incumbents.

Primaries for prominent offices in Connecticut are a rare occasion, and against incumbents is almost unheard of. An incumbent Governor hasn’t faced a primary since 1978. An incumbent member of the House in Connecticut has never faced a primary at all. It’s no secret that we are in a political environment where we may see more primaries in Connecticut’s future.

Low-turnout primaries in the 4th and 5th Congressional Districts could lead to unexpected results, and upsets have been common in recent Connecticut Republican primaries. Whether these contests reaffirm the political status quo or signal shifting coalitions within Connecticut’s parties, the results will provide valuable insight into the state’s political landscape heading into November.

As always, these ratings are forecasts based on the information available before Election Day—not guarantees. I’ll be following the results as they come in on August 11 and will revisit these predictions afterward to evaluate what I got right, what I got wrong, and what the outcomes reveal about Connecticut politics. Stay tuned for Part 2, where we cover legislative primaries.

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Republican Ryan Fazio heads for the stage with his fiancée Amy Orser after earning his party’s nomination for Governor at the Connecticut Republican Convention on May 16, 2026, at Mohegan Sun. Source: Mark Mirko at Connecticut Public

Overview

State Sen. Ryan Fazio (R-Greenwich) leads a Republican slate of statewide challengers in November, facing a difficult challenge in a state dominated by Democrats in both the legislature and statewide.

Republicans have not won a statewide race in Connecticut since Governor Jodi Rell’s 63-35 landslide victory in 2006. Republicans have not won one of Connecticut’s row offices since 1994, when Republican Chris Burnham defeated Democratic incumbent Joseph Suggs Jr in a 53-45 victory for Treasurer.

The State GOP dominated the governor’s office from 1994 to 2010. Since 2010, Republicans have had numerous close races, including three consecutive governor’s races decided by less than 4 points in 2010, 2014, and 2018. In 2016, Republicans managed an 18-18 tie in the State Senate, and only a 72-79 deficit in the State House.

We covered in our State Senate Ratings Forecast last month how these numbers have dwindled in past cycles, where Democrats now hold supermajorities in both chambers of the Connecticut General Assembly and every statewide office. How do Republicans gain back some relevance in the state? It starts with the statewide slate, notably with the candidate leading the ticket. We will go through a brief biography of Fazio, and then discuss if he has a chance in November.

Let’s get started!

Fazio Personal Background

Ryan Fazio was born in Norwalk and grew up in Greenwich, where he graduated from Greenwich High School in 2008. He later earned a BA in Economics from Northwestern University in 2012. He is a known New York sports fan.

Fazio’s professional background includes time in the private sector as a former renewable energy professional and shipping professional. The company is a large ethanol biorefinery facility where he managed commercial operations, logistics, and market risks. The company processed, stored, shipped, and traded energy worldwide. Fazio also worked at a small venture capital firm that invests in small and medium-sized businesses, where he advises their management to help them grow. He resigned from the firm in February to devote himself full time to his gubernatorial campaign.

The senator has also spent several years volunteering at an inner-city charter school. Fazio served on the leadership of the Associate Council of the KIPP Charter school network. Locally, he has volunteered for Greenwich United Way and Meals on Wheels.

Political Background

State Sen. Ryan Fazio (R-Greenwich) has made a rapid rise in Connecticut politics. At 36, he will be the youngest major party nominee for Governor in the country. In addition, he is the youngest candidate to win the Republican Party endorsement since John Rowland won the endorsement in the 1990 Governor’s race.

Fazio won 92% of the convention vote in May after a scandal derailed frontrunner Erin Stewart. Many expected him to face a tough primary in August against Stewart, but the scandal caused many Republicans to coalesce around him.

Fazio, like many Greenwich politicians, got his start in politics as a member of Greenwich’s Representative Town Meeting, where he served in District 12, winning his first term in 2019. In 2020, he won the Republican Party endorsement in the 36th State Senate seat to face Democratic Incumbent Alex Kasser. Fazio lost narrowly 49-51.

However, in 2021, Fazio received an unexpected opportunity after Kasser resigned, triggering a special election. He won the special election 50-48 against Democrat Alexis Gevanter. In 2022, Fazio won his first full-term by a mere 89 votes in a 50.1-49.9 victory against Democrat Trevor Crow. In 2024, Fazio faced heavy spending and a difficult challenge from Democrat Nick Simmons, resulting in one of the most expensive state legislative contests in state history. Even though Kamala Harris carried his district by a 58-41 margin, Fazio won 52-48, his best performance yet.

Main Campaign Issues

When Fazio ran in the special election for his State Senate seat in 2021, he named public safety as his most important campaign priority. He followed up with reducing taxes, cost of electricity, and improving access to health care through state regulation improvements. He also wanted to reduce state control over local school and town planning and zoning.

His gubernatorial campaign hits on many of the same points. Fazio, a ranking member of the Energy & Technology Committee in the state legislature, had focused a lot of his campaign on the state’s high energy costs. Fazio argues that Democrats’ policies have led to high electric rates imposing $1 billion in ‘public benefits” onto our residents. Fazio’s plan to cut electrical bills by 20% is to eliminate the public benefits charge, expand natural gas capacity, cut renewable energy subsidies, limit government contracts, and end “inefficient programs” on electric vehicles such as the EV Charging Program and the heat pump installation subsidy.

Fazio, who voted against last year’s passage of HB 8002, a reworked housing bill that would increase the state’s housing supply, was asked at a forum how he would implement the new law he opposed. Fazio said he would focus on cost controls, adding housing supply, and working to respect local control in housing construction.

He also offered a plan to ease CT’s property tax burden. Connecticut’s cities and towns rely heavily on property tax as a major revenue stream. Fazio did not give specific fiscal projections for his plan. A main point of his plan is to tie Connecticut’s chief operating grant for local schools to the rate of inflation and to cap municipalities’ ability to boost local taxes by 2% or the inflation rate (whichever is greater), saying the legislature should not pay for those directives out of the state budget.

The Lamont campaign told the CT Mirror that Fazio and other minority Republicans in the State Senate did not offer a plan to balance state finances and remain cap-compliant within the fiscal guardrails. Fazio argued his plan is achievable by spending less, specifically on Medicaid benefits for undocumented children and allowing the state’s universities and community college system to hold huge reserves. He also added that he could channel millions annually by curbing or ending longstanding tax breaks for nonprofit universities and hospitals.

On immigration, Fazio is in favor of reversing Connecticut’s sanctuary state policy, the 2019 Trust Act, which restricts state and local law enforcement from cooperating or communicating with the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Fazio says the issue is that law enforcement should have discretion over people who are here illegally with Class C, D, and E felonies and misdemeanors, and the current law prevents the state from working with federal authorities. He also aims to cut hundreds of millions of dollars he says are being spent on “illegal immigration programs“.

Fazio has proposed overhauling the 2020 police accountability legislation, which he says led to a surge of violence. Fazio hopes to restore standard enforcement and proactive policing capabilities.

Does Fazio have a Chance in November?

During his 2024 campaign, Fazio spent most of his campaign avoiding mentioning Trump in any capacity. If a voter asked how he voted in the previous three presidential elections, Fazio politely declined. The strategy worked out well for Fazio, who won many voters who voted for Kamala Harris in the concurrent presidential election.

While running in the primary for Governor, Fazio said during an interview, “I would love the President’s endorsement.” Fazio stated, I have a great deal of respect for his public service and his willingness to step up.” During a statewide campaign, Fazio will have a lot more trouble distancing himself from Trump. His opponents will be airing that quote all throughout election season.

During his 2024 re-election bid for the State Senate, Fazio focused on bipartisanship and on local and state issues. This is something doable in a local race, much harder to do when you’re the party’s candidate for Governor. It’s a difficult needle to thread.

To broaden his appeal, Fazio will likely have to reassure moderate and independent voters on issues where Connecticut’s electorate differs from the national Republican Party. Fazio has said he supports the status quo on Connecticut’s existing laws protecting abortion access, but he will need to offer some other core issues against Connecticut’s blue-leaning electorate.

He could also emphasize how he will have a Democratic legislature in both the State House and State Senate, and how he intends to work with them to solve the state’s issues. A similar approach has been used by Republican governors including Phil Scott, Charlie Baker, and Larry Hogan. But a charged Democratic electorate in November is unlikely to have similar sentiments in a midterm election against a rather unpopular Donald Trump.

The general election opponent is also important to any path Fazio has in November. One would think, and some Republicans agree, that they would rather face State Rep. Josh Elliott than Governor Ned Lamont in November. The two democrats face off in a primary on August 11th. Lamont is heavily favored, but Elliott has been making gains in recent polling. If Elliott is the Democratic nominee, his more progressive and ambitious platform may allow Fazio a better contrast in the general election. Elliott supported calls to abolish police departments during the 2020 debate over policing, a message that will also be on the air everywhere if Elliott bests Lamont in the primary.

Josh Elliott is also known as one of the most left-leaning members in the legislature, but is also not well-known to a majority of the state’s voters. This would offer an opportunity for Fazio’s campaign to define him quickly. Also without Lamont, Fazio can compete for the Fairfield County base that has heavily split-ticketed for legislative races in past cycles.

If Fazio faces Lamont, the most likely scenario, he will have a lot more trouble trying to define Lamont as the two-term governor. He would have to attack him on the issues, while Lamont can easily point to his accomplishments over his time in office. Also, voters see Lamont as pragmatic and likeable, a difficult quality to change voters’ opinions on.

Conclusion

In any scenario, the Democratic nominee will be heavily favored in November. Fazio has a tough challenge ahead in November. He qualified for public financing earlier this year, and will have an $18,000,000 grant to spend in the general election. How he decides to spend his grant money will be important for leading the Republican slate.

In the 2022 elections, some voters split-ticket on other statewide offices. The best-performing Republican by margin was State Rep. Harry Arora, who lost by 7 to Democrat Erick Russell in the race for Treasurer. In the Governor’s race, Ned Lamont beat Republican Bob Stefanowski by a larger 56-43 margin.

Stefanowski’s 43% is the baseline for Fazio. He will need to do much better in Fairfield County and the state’s suburbs while also increasing turnout in Republican areas.

Whether Fazio can exceed recent Republican performances will largely depend on his ability to appeal to independent and moderate suburban voters while navigating the national political environment. Even under the most favorable circumstances, Connecticut’s Democratic lean means Republicans enter the race as clear underdogs.

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Overview

In 2016, Connecticut Republicans were doing pretty well. With Donald Trump winning the presidency, they managed to get an 18-18 tie in the State Senate and were only down 72-79 in the State House. This amount of power allowed the CT GOP a fair amount of power in the state legislature, culminating in a 2017 budget deal with fiscal restraints that Democrats agreed to.

However, within a decade, things had changed. President Donald Trump transformed the image of the Republican Party. Some states have shifted greatly to the right. However, in Connecticut, old-school moderate Republicans weren’t keen on MAGA, or Trump’s level of populism. This shift towards the Democrats, most prevalent in upper-middle-class suburbs and wealthy Fairfield County, has culminated in Republicans in a superminority position in both the State Legislature and State Senate.

Things aren’t looking great heading to November for the GOP in the State Senate, headlined by two open Republican-held seats that Kamala Harris won by more than 16 points. If Republicans lose these two seats, they will only have 9 seats in the State Senate. This would be the worst result for the CT GOP since the 1974 election cycle, where the Watergate Scandal led Democrats to a 29D-7R Senate and a massive 118D-33R House.

The Possible Flips – Lean D

Democrats shouldn’t be too cocky with SD-28 and SD-36. Democrats thought they were going to take out State Sen. Tony Hwang (R-Fairfield) numerous times over the years. They spent heavily to oust State Sen. Ryan Fazio (R-Greenwich) in 2024, but fell short.

Fairfield County Republicans have split-ticket their ballots, voting blue federally, and red in the state legislature. However, both incumbents are retiring. Both Republican nominees running, Amybeth Laroche (SD-28) and Joe Kelly (SD-36) will outrun the federal lean of their seats easily. But the deep blue federal lean of the seats is likely too much to overcome in November’s expected national environment. Kamala Harris won SD-28, 58-40, and SD-36, 58-41.

Hwang is retiring. Despite Hwang’s success in holding the seat, his poor relationships with local Republicans led to Laroche entering the race last December, with numerous endorsements, before Hwang announced his plans. In addition, Hwang lost a special election for Fairfield First Selectman earlier this year, signaling he didn’t have much intention of staying in the State Senate. Also an indication of the dire environment he would have faced in November, despite carrying Fairfield multiple times during his re-election bids. Democrats will be running Rob Blanchard, who also ran as the nominee for the seat in 2024.

Fazio is retiring, but he is looking for a promotion and is officially the GOP’s nominee for Governor in November. After former New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart’s campaign blew up after reports of her using taxpayer money from a city P-Card for personal purchases during her mayoral tenure, Fazio was able to easily win at the party convention, avoiding a primary from former NY Lt. Gov. Betsy McCaughey.

Fazio can likely help bolster performance in his seat in both the governor’s race and the State Senate race. However, SD-36 flipped the last time Democrats had a similar expected national environment. Democrat Alex Kasser flipped the seat from Incumbent Scott Frantz in 2018, and held it in 2020. When Kasser resigned, Fazio won the seat in a special election in 2021. In addition, during his 2022 re-election, Fazio won by 89 votes, indicating the close nature of the seat. He won a 52-48 victory in 2024.

Therefore, I believe both seats are favored to flip this cycle, but are not guaranteed. Spending will be heavy, and the races will likely remain competitive until November. They are rated as Lean D.

Solid D Seats

Not much to discuss for most of the State Senate’s Democratic caucus. Out of 25 incumbents, no one is really in danger of losing unless a surprise scandal or October surprise occurs. Out of the seats I rated Solid D, a few were notably close on a federal level in 2024. SD-14 (Harris +3), SD-15 (Harris +6), SD-19 (Harris +7), SD-24 (Harris +6). However, all four incumbents (James Maroney, Joan Hartley, Catherine Osten, and Julie Kushner) are running again. In 2024, Hartley had no Republican opposition and Maroney and Osten both won by double digits comfortably.

Likely D Seats

Both incumbents I’ve rated here are likely safe, but do notably represent seats that are a bit closer than the Solid D seats.

In SD-8, State Sen. Paul Honig (D-Harwinton) knocked off State Sen. Lisa Seminara in a 50.3-49.7 victory in 2024, the lone flip of the cycle in the State Senate for either party. Honig is likely to do better in this Harris +10 seat in November than he did in 2024. But being a relatively new senator, in one of the few likely targeted races in the state, made me mark this race as Likely D.

In SD-29, State Sen. Mae Flexer (D-Windham) won a competitive race against Republican Chris Reddy, by a 49.8-48.4 margin in 2024. Kamala Harris won this seat 51-47 in 2024. Flexer has faced numerous close races over the years. The district is notably Democratic due to the presence of the UConn-Storrs campus, despite the red lean of surrounding towns. Similar to Honig, Flexer is likely to do better than 2024, and win an expected rematch against Reddy, but the close nature of the district, and Flexer’s lack of overperformance in recent cycles have me mark this race as Likely D.

An Intriguing Toss-Up

SD-35 is an interesting case study. State Sen. Jeff Gordon (R-Woodstock) won a comfortable 53-47 victory in 2024 against Democrat Merry Garrett. However, in 2022, Gordon won a narrower 50.6-49.4 victory in this seat. With a 2026 environment, this puts Gordon in a precarious position. I believe this puts Gordon as the most vulnerable Republican incumbent.

In addition, the previous incumbent to this seat, Republican Dan Champagne, won two narrow races in both 2018 and 2020. In 2018, he won 51-49, and in 2020, he won 50.5-49.5, under district lines that remain fairly similar.

With Democrats likely focusing on flipping SD-28 and SD-36, it’s unlikely Democrats will spend a lot of money in SD-35; it’ll be a seat that is determined by the November political environment.

Gordon faces Democrat Ethan Werstler, a UConn grad, who has no competition for the nomination. Werstler ran in the 52nd State House Seat in 2024, against State Rep. Kurt Vail, losing 42-58. However, the 52nd State House Seat is the 11th most Republican seat in the state, where Trump won by 15 points. The 35th State Senate seat, on the other hand, is one of the six Republican-held Senate seats won by Kamala Harris. Kamala Harris won here 51-48 in 2024. This will a close race in November.

Lean R

Normally, State Sen. Rob Sampson would not be in a competitive race in SD-16. He won a large 57-43 victory in 2024, running 4 points ahead of Trump in the most Republican Senate district in Connecticut. Trump won here 54-44 in 2024. Sampson won an even larger 59-41 victory in 2022.

However, the closer-than-usual race in this district this year is due to his opponent. Sampson’s closest race in his State Senate career was in 2020 when he won 53.8-46.2 against Democrat Jack Perry.

Perry, who ran for Congress in the 1st Congressional District last year, decided to drop down and face Sampson again. Perry, a former member of Southington’s town council, will give Sampson likely the most competitive race of his career.

Sampson is still favored in this Republican district, but Perry’s strong performance in 2020 with a favorable environment could give an opening.

Likely R

Republicans are favored in SD-7, SD-18. SD-21, and SD-30. The reason these races are marked as Likely R is due to the federal lean of the seats. Though Connecticut Republicans have been able to outrun the federal lean of their seats by large margins in previous cycles. Connecticut’s 2025 local election proved to be difficult for many Republican incumbents as Democrats flipped 27 towns from Republican to Democratic control, indicating that many Democrats weren’t as willing to vote Republican on the local level in Trump’s second term. Many residents found themselves unable to separate local and national politics.

3 of the 4 seats listed here voted for Kamala Harris on the federal level, SD-7 (Harris+2), SD-18 (Harris+5), and SD-30 (Harris+0.91). SD-21 is a narrow Trump seat (Trump +0.54). Republicans will likely hold onto these seats, but I wouldn’t be surprised for closer margin of victory compared to 2024.

However, many incumbents in this category have outrun the federal lean by a large margin. Even though Kamala Harris winning her seat by 5 points, State Sen. Heather Somers won a large 59-41 victory. Despite large Democratic overperformances in special elections, Jason Perillo won 53.5-46.5 in SD-21’s special election last year, a 6.5-point overperformance, one of the few Republican overperformances this cycle in a special election. Finally, many of these incumbents have performed well in unfavorable environments like 2018 where there weren’t many close races in these districts.

Solid R

An absolute disaster at all levels would have to happen for Republicans to lose any of these three seats. Though everyone will face a Democratic opponent. Democrats are contesting all 36 seats this year.

Though Democrats may be able to flip some Trump-won seats in the State House, it seems unlikely to happen in the State Senate. The three seats here are some of the most Republican leaning in the state. Though due to political geography, in Connecticut, you won’t find many heavily Republican seats, like in other states where Trump +50 seats are common in rural areas.

SD-31 (Trump +8) , SD-32 (Trump +9), and SD-34 (Trump +5) are all solidly R in November. The two of the three incumbents here, Eric Berthel and Paul Cicarella, won by at least 13 points in 2024, outrunning Trump by a couple of points. Henri Martin in SD-31 didn’t even face a Democratic opponent in 2024. Since 2016, Martin has won all his races by at least 16 points.

Overview

Democrats are favored to make gains in the State Senate in November. We will make updates to race ratings as needed later in the summer. We will see if Republicans can hold onto their seats despite the unfavorable national environment. The goal for them will be to separate local and national politics, something the Connecticut GOP has struggled with in the Trump era.
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Democratic Nominee Larry Pemberton Jr. Source: Norwich Bulletin

Brief Overview

Welcome Back! It’s another special election on the docket today.

Governor Ned Lamont ordered a special election for today, January 13th, back in late November.

This district was vacant, due to sadly, the death of Incumbent State Rep. Kevin Ryan. Ryan passed away at the age of 73 in hospice on November 23rd. He was first elected to the 139th State House seat in 1992.

Democrat Eastern Pequot Tribe member Larry Pemberton Jr. faces Republican businessman Brandon Sabbag.

Mark Adams, the Republican nominee in the last two general elections for the district, is on the ballot as a write-in candidate.

Candidates Biographies and Priorities

Both Pemberton Jr. and Sabbag are first-time candidates.

Pemberton Jr. could be the first member of a state-recognized Connecticut tribe in the General Assembly. He is the treasurer of the tribal nation. Sabbag is a businessman who talks about his struggle with homelessness when he was younger.

Unlike the special election last week, there was some opposition at the nomination convention.  There are no primaries for special elections in Connecticut, so party delegates of the district pick the nominees.

At a candidate Q&A on January 5th, the three candidates talked about their views on some issues.

On affordability, Pemberton Jr. discussed finding additional energy sources to lower costs on energy bills. Sabbag said utility companies should get rid of their public benefits charges.

On mental health, some candidates were light on specific solutions to the mental health crisis. Pemberton talked about how he’ll find answers to it. Sabbag believed the answer is that students should pray on it. Adams said parents should be more educated on these issues to help them at home.

On education, Adams discussed how teachers are underpaid. On safety in schools, Pemberton said additional school monitors can help with safety. Sabbag supports having armed security guards in schools.

Generally, one of Pemberton’s priorities is on affordability. Some things he wants to accomplish is adding more housing in Montville, and covering children’s lunches with taxpayer funds.

Sabbag is also focusing on affordability. He says keeping the state’s budget as balanced is important.

Headline Annoyances for one, Major Controversies for another, and even more Drama!

For a special election to fill out the remaining ten months of the term, there is a lot of action happening in the district.

Pemberton has some minor issues that have given him annoying headlines. Sabbag has much larger issues about his past coming to light, in addition to some of his rhetoric. Adams has a lawsuit that could throw the entire race out.

Minor Headline Annoyances for Pemberton and the Nomination Fight

Pemberton Jr. was approved for the $27,375 grant allocated by the State Election Enforcement Commission (SEEC). However, they also voted to investigate $40 in small contributions. Pemberton said the eight contributions came from family members using the same card. It didn’t affect his grant and was a pretty minor issue, yet the SEEC still voted for the investigation. This investigation doesn’t look like much, but the headline ‘Candidate investigated by SEEC’ is definitely not a headline anyone wants.

Unlike the special election last week, Pemberton did face opposition in his nomination and it was also full of drama. Pemberton Jr. won his nomination by a 9-3 vote on December 3rd against Billy Caron, a Montville Town Council member and longtime friend of Former Rep. Ryan.

Pemberton has the backing of State Senator Cathy Osten, a longtime supporter of the Pequots and Mohegans. Caron has complained about what he feels was Osten’s interference, for someone who was not a registered Democrat. Something that the CT Mirror said wasn’t well-known during the nomination. Osten says, she was not responsible for delivering delegate support.

It’ll be interesting to see if Caron runs in a primary in the summer, but he hasn’t mentioned that yet.

Sabbag’s Arrests and Rhetoric Come to Light

Brandon Sabbag has multiple arrests in his criminal record. This includes convictions for misdemeanor assault and felony witness tampering in 2018. According to the New London-based publication The Day, both his charges resulted in him receiving prison time at his sentencing, but it was eventually suspended.

Under Connecticut law, Sabbag is allowed to run for office once his probation has been completed. His probation was completed in 2020.

The Day also found two more convictions, one from 2012 and another from 2017. It is unknown how the cases were resolved due to a pre-trial diversionary program that removes the charges from the defendant’s record.

Sabbag did not speak with a reporter when asked about his criminal history. He did comment on a text, that it happened when he and his partner faced “hard time” and “fought”.

Sabbag also faces some attention for his comments on trans issues, due to some of his social media posts, which many have called transphobic.

He was confronted about this during a town hall debate. He denied both claims to a resident, but when the resident said you really did. Sabbag replied, “ Transgenderism is demonic,” Sabbag replied, quoting from Genesis 1:26. He then continued, “It says that God made man and woman in His image. If you’re transgender, that’s okay. I support you having a right to be what you want to be, but I’ll tell you right now that is not how God created you. It is not who you are. The newspapers can post this. I don’t care, because I’m unapologetically me,” he said. 

Both his opponents, when given the opportunity to respond to the exchange, declined.

Adams Adding Some Drama

Mark Adams, the Republican nominee in 2022 and 2024, tried to get on the ballot under the Independent ballot line. He sued due to this exclusion and is campaigning as a write-in candidate.

A superior court judge declined to dismiss the lawsuit, which claims the Secretary of State’s office wrongly refused to accept his Independent Party nomination paper over a technicality, a missing signature.

There is a small chance that if Adams succeeds in this lawsuit, it could trigger a repeat special election, with Adams listed on the ballot as an Independent.

District Information

The 139th State House District has been represented by Kevin Ryan since 1992. It has long been located in Eastern Connecticut, though the district lines have moved between surrounding towns during Ryan’s tenure.

From 1992 to the early 2000s, the district contained parts of Bozrah, Franklin, Lebanon, and Montville. In 2012, during redistricting, the lines shifted and included parts of Bozrah and Montville, but added Norwich.

In 2022, in redistricting, the district kept the precincts in Norwich, switched one in Montville, but added another precinct in Bozrah. The 5 precincts, 1 in Ledyard, 2 in Montville, and 2 in Norwich make up the district.

The district has shifted a bit to the right in the last decade. After Ryan won his first term with 49% of the vote, he won comfortably, winning more than 57% of the vote in all of his elections until 2018. Since 2018, Ryan has won the seat by about 8-10 points every two years.

In the 2024 Presidential Election, Rep. Kevin Ryan won 55-45, slightly outperforming Kamala Harris, who won the district 53-45.

Expectations for the Special Election

Ballot for today’s special election in Ledyard District 3. Source: CT Secretary of State Website

Democrats are likely to win this district tonight. Though it will be a bit more competitive than the special election last week, due to the fact that it’s only a Harris +7.5 district.

However, the scandals and arrest record of Sabbag might drag him down, giving Pemberton Jr a good shot of winning the seat. In addition, some write-in votes for Adams, likely from Republicans, can increase Pemberton Jr’s margin.

As I said in the special election last week, according to The Downballot, Democrats have overperformed the 2024 Presidential Results in special elections by 13.8 points. With Democratic voters very motivated as we enter the second year of Trump’s presidency, we will see the level of overperformance!

Though in Connecticut, overperformances for the Democratic Party have not been very high. Last week, the overperformance was only about two points. And last year had two special elections where Republicans overperform.

Though this is a district that Democrats might see a better performance. The one significant Democratic overperformance last year, a 16-point Democratic overperformance in CT-HD-40. Only about ten miles away from this district, Eastern Connecticut is the one part of the state where overperformances in specials might be more likely than other parts of the state.

Votes tonight will likely come town by town. Here are the reference numbers for each town.

Ledyard (1 Precinct) – Harris 55.1-42.8 (About 18% of the 2024 District Vote Here)

Montville (2 Precincts) – Trump 50.6-47.7 (About 33% of the 2024 District Vote Here)

Norwich (2 precincts) – Harris 55.6-42.8 (About 49% of the 2024 District Vote Here)

We will update on Twitter/X as results come in after polls close at 8:00 pm.

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Iris Noemi Sanchez, Democratic nominee (on the right), and Jamie Vaughan, Republican nominee (on the left), are the candidates for today’s special election. Source: CT Examiner

Brief Overview

Gov Ned Lamont ordered a special election for today, Jan 6th, on November 21st. The seat became vacant after former State Rep. Bobby Sanchez resigned from his seat on November 12th, following his election win to become the mayor of New Britain. Sanchez successfully changed party control of the mayorship of New Britain from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party.

Both parties’ nominated candidates, as there are no primaries for special elections in Connecticut. Neither candidate faced any opposition at their respective nomination. New Britain Democratic Alderperson Iris Noemi Sanchez faces off against New Britain Republican Constable Jamie Vaughan.

25th State House Democratic Nominee

Iris Noemi Sanchez, Alderperson in Ward 3 of New Britain’s town council, is the Democratic Nominee. She was born in Puerto Rico and has lived in New Britain since 1994, after moving with her family after graduating high school. She is the single mother of two adult children and has worked previously as a medical office assistant and caregiver. Sanchez has been elected to the council five times, first winning a seat in 2017.

Sanchez has the support of New Britain Mayor Bobby Sanchez (not related), who held this seat for 14 years prior. She also has the support of State Rep. Hilda Santiago, a Puerto Rican-born state legislator from Meriden.

Sanchez lists her priorities on housing, public safety, education, and the needs of working families.

25th State House Republican Nominee

Jamie Vaughan, a member of the New Britain Constable, is the Republican nominee. Vaughan was the Republican nominee for this district in 2024, where he lost to Bobby Sanchez 30-70. He is also a U.S Marine Corps Veteran serving as a 3531 motor vehicle operator and served on New Britain’s Veterans Commission. He is married with two adult daughters living in New Britain, nearly all his life.

Vaughan has the support of former New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart, who is running for the Republican nomination for governor.

Vaughan listed his priorities as reducing property taxes, tackling high electric bills, and making policy decisions to help the business community create jobs. In a YouTube video on his campaign website, Vaughan calls out Democrats for causing such a high cost of living in the state. He also talked about supporting no tax on tips, and no taxes on seniors’ social security.

He also talks about fighting one-party rule in Connecticut by making advances on the Republican side, in an Instagram reel on the Connecticut Young Republicans page, and on his campaign website.

25th State House Seat District Information

The 25th State House seat has long centered around parts of New Britain from 1972 to 1980, and since 2002. From 1982 to 2000, the district contained parts of New Britain and Newington. The district changed slightly in the 2022 redistricting, dropping and adding a few precincts, but it remained mostly the same.

A map of the district marked in pink: Source: New Britain Progressive

The following voting precincts are in the district

• Voting District 6: Chamberlain School (120 Newington Ave.)
• Voting District 7: School Apartments (50 Bassett St.)
• Voting District 8: Graham Apartments (107 Martin Luther King Dr.)
• Voting District 9: New Britain Senior Center (55 Pearl St.)
• Voting District 10: Generale Ameglio Society Hall (13 Beaver St.)
• Voting District 11: International Church (40 Acorn St.)

In all of Bobby Sanchez’s election wins since 2010, he has never received less than 70% of the vote, remaining a Democratic stronghold.

Sanchez overperformed Kamala Harris in this district. Kamala Harris won here by a smaller but still large 64-34 spread.

According to the Hartford Business Journal, the 25th State House District is 56% Latino. Republican nominee Jamie Vaughan says Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 5 to 1 in this district. Larger than the 3 to 1 margin in New Britain as a whole.

Both candidates relied on public financing for their campaigns. Both qualified for a grant of just above $27,000.

What to Expect in Today’s Special Election

Today’s Ballot. Source: Secretary of State Website

Democrats are widely expected to win this Harris+30 seat. This is a safe Democratic seat. In terms of expected overperformance, that is harder to predict. Turnout for this special election is expected to be low. In addition, today is Three Kings Day, a notable occasion of importance in Puerto Rican communities.

According to the Downballot, Democrats have overperformed the 2024 Presidential Results in special elections by 13.8 points. With Democratic voters very motivated as we enter the second year of Trump’s presidency, we will see the level of overperformance! It is important to note that special election overperformances have not been as high in Connecticut last year. Though two of the three elections took place around Shelton, where Republicans tend to overperform on the local level. There was a 16-point Democratic overperformance in CT-HD-40, in the southeast part of the state. There was a 7-point Republican overperformance in CT-SD-21 and another 5-point overperformance in CT-HD-113. So it will be curious to see where this election ends up.

Early voting was light in the district. Early Voting took place on December 31st, Jan 2nd to Jan 4th. The Hartford Business had the early turnout as follows.

“72 Democrats, 26 Republicans, 20 unaffiliated voters, and three registered Independents had cast in-person, early-voting ballots. Another 22 Democrats, six Republicans and seven unaffiliated had cast absentee ballots.”

Either way, Democrats will likely win the seat! We will update on Twitter/X as results come in after polls close at 8:00 pm.

Join us next week as well, for another special election on the 13th!

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Norwich Mayor Swarnjit Singh was sworn in on Dec. 2 by CT Lt. Governor Susan Bysiewicz, alongside his family and Gov Ned Lamont. Source: Norwich Bulletin

2025 Elections Nationally in Review

It’s the last day of the year; therefore, everyone likes to reminisce on what happened in the past year. Election-wise, it was another crazy year. The year started with President Donald Trump being inaugurated as the country’s 47th President in a political comeback. Nationally and statewide, Republicans were jubilant at the gains they made across many minority communities and younger voters. Democrats struggled to figure out how Trump made his political comeback, with a lot of soul-searching … and pointing blame on their political misfortune.

By the end of the year, Trump’s approval rating had dropped to 36% (Gallup), and Republicans across the country and in Connecticut could feel it. Democrats have dominated numerous special elections. According to the election publication, The Downballot‘s 2025 Big Board, Democrats have overperformed the 2024 Presidential Results by 13.9 points across 65 races ranging from the State Legislature to Congress.

In November, Democrats saw hope. Zohran Mamdani won the mayorship in New York City, giving progressives a new voice on the national stage. Democrats Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill won dominantly in their gubernatorial victories in New Jersey and Virginia last month. Spanberger won by over 15 points against Republican Lt. Gov Winsome Sears. Sherrill, despite narrowing polls, won by an unexpectedly large 14-point margin against former State Assemblyman and 2021 Republican Nominee Jack Ciattarelli.

Things can change quickly in one year. Not uncommon in politics, but you never know which trends will stay and which political trends will disappear within a political cycle. Politics is fairly cyclical; it’s up to the opposition to use it to their advantage, especially at a time when voters are unhappy.

2025 Elections in CT

Connecticut Democrats had an amazing 2025 cycle. Democrats flipped the top office and control in 29 towns across the state. Numbers came from CT Mirror and CT Secretary of State Website. Notable wins for Democrats include

• Democrat Swarnjit Singh won 59-41 over Republican Stacy Gould for Norwich Mayor. Swarnjit also became the first Sikh mayor in Connecticut.
• Democrat Laurie Bursten won in an upset 52-48 against Republican incumbent Lori Spielman in the First Selectman race in Ellington.
• Democrat Bobby Sanchez won 58-40 against Republican Sharon Beloin-Saavedra in the New Britain Mayor Race. Sanchez flipped the seat for Democrats for the first time in 12 years.
• Democrat Rich Smith won against Republican incumbent Tony Giannattasio 55-45 in the Milford Mayoral Race.
• Democrat David Chess knocked out two-term Republican incumbent Laura Hoydick 55-45 in the Stratford Mayoral Race. Though Kamala Harris won by 19 points in 2024 in Stratford, Hoydick won by 26 points in 2021. Hoydick seems to have lost from Democrats not crossing over this year, unlike her previous victories.
• Democratic challenger Bruce Walczak knocked out Republican incumbent Jeff Capeci in Newtown’s First Selectman race. Walczak won 56-44.
• Former Mayor Democrat Ellen Zoppo-Sassu narrowly won back her seat against Republican incumbent Jeffrey Caggiano 50.5-49.5 in Bristol.

Republicans, despite a lot of losses, held some important races and flipped a mayoral race in one town.

• Republican incumbent mayor Vincent Cervoni won over Democratic challenger Alida Cella 58-42 in the Wallingford Mayoral Race
• Republican Molly Spino beat Democrat Stephen Ivain 54-46 in the open Torrington Mayoral Race.
• Incumbent Republican First Selectman Fred Camillo comfortably wins over Democratic challenger Anthony Moor 56-44 in Greenwich.
• Republican Dan Lent won over Democrat Nicholas D’Addario in a 50.1-49.9 squeaker for First Selectman in Easton. The lone Democrat to Republican flip of the night.

These are just some of the examples of wins from both Democrats and Republicans.

Many officials and reporters described the 2025 local races as a “blue wave”. Democrats did better than their most optimistic predictions. A big trend was the decline in split-ticket voting, as many Republican incumbents won by 10-20 points in previous races in 2021 and 2023, only to lose in 2025.

A map of Connecticut towns showing wins and losses by party in the 2025 elections based on unofficial results from the Secretary of the State’s office. Credit to Viktoria Sundqvist / CTNewsjunkie

What to Expect in 2026? To Start – A Barrage of Special Elections

No one has to wait too long for elections in Connecticut. Due to a variety of circumstances, there will be 3 special elections taking place in Connecticut from early January to early February.

On Jan. 5th, there will be a special election for the 25th State House Seat. The seat was vacated by Rep. Bobby Sanchez, who resigned after winning the mayorship of New Britain in November.

The 25th State House Seat is likely to stay in the Democrats’ hands. Kamala Harris won this seat 64-34 in 2024. The district contains parts of New Britain.

On Jan. 13th, there will be a special election for the 139th State House Seat. The seat was vacated by Rep. Kevin Ryan due to his death in late November.

The 139th State House Seat could potentially be competitive, but leans towards the Democratic Party. Kamala Harris won this seat 53-47 in 2024. The districts contains parts of Montville, Ledyard, and Norwich.

On Feb. 3rd, there will be a special election for Fairfield First Selectman. Democratic First Selectman Bill Gerber sadly passed away in July. The two remaining Selectmen, Democrat Christine Vitale and Republican Brenda Kupchick, could not pick a successor. The town charter specified that the party that held the seat, the Democrats, could appoint a replacement. Democrats picked Vitale. However, the charter also allowed a special election to take place if enough signatures were gathered. Republican State Sen. Tony Hwang successfully gathered enough signatures to force this special election for the remainder of the term.

The Fairfield First Selectman special election will be competitive, despite Kamala Harris winning the town 59-40 in 2024. Republicans have frequently performed better on the local level, and State Sen. Tony Hwang has won over Democratic voters in his State Senate elections, where he represents a district Kamala Harris won by 18 points. I mark the race as a toss-up.

2026 Primary Elections

It will be an active cycle during the 2026 primaries this year. It will start at the convention, where it will be a competitive race for delegates, and continue into the late summer for the primary.

The main event is the expected competitive Democratic primary in Connecticut’s 1st Congressional District, where incumbent Rep. John Larson faces multiple challengers in former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest, Hartford Board of Ed. Member Ruth Fortune and perennial candidate Mark Greenstein. Though not all the challengers are expected to make the ballot, if anyone makes the ballot, it will mark the first primary against an incumbent member of the U.S. House in Connecticut since the modern system was put in place over 50 years ago.

Larson faces his strongest competition, but if his challengers don’t consolidate, it is likely that Larson can easily win with a plurality. Larson has endorsements from most elected officials in the district as well as the state’s entire federal delegation. The race can get unpredictable, but it’s Larson’s race to lose. The race has already been pretty negative between Larson and his challengers, and I don’t expect that to change anytime soon, with everyone throwing jabs at each other.

No other Incumbent House Democrat faces a significant challenger; time will tell if any emerge. All the attention will be on CT-01 until that changes.

There is also a competitive Republican primary for governor. This race is currently between State Senator Ryan Fazio and former New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart. Both represent a generational shift in the party, as both are more than three decades younger than current Democratic Governor Ned Lamont. There have been reports that former Lt. Gov of New York, Betsy McCaughey, might enter the race as well. This primary can also get messy.

On the Democratic side, State Rep. Josh Elliott hopes to stop Ned Lamont from securing a 3rd term. Elliott, who has struggled to gain traction and fundraise, still has time to prove to voters why Lamont shouldn’t be the nominee. He hopes for a breakthrough moment, and maybe as the race approaches, he finds it somewhere.

There will be expected primaries in the state legislature against both incumbents and in open races. The incumbent most likely to have a primary challenge is State Sen. Doug McCrory of the 2nd district, who has been linked to state spending under investigation by federal investigators. Coverage will increase as we get closer to the primary cycle, as most state legislature members haven’t filed for re-election yet, but it should be a busier primary cycle than usual. I expect a real test of Democrats’ appetite for younger challengers/fighting mentality, as well as a sign of how State Republicans want to proceed to make some gains across the state.

2026 Statewide Elections

All statewide Democratic incumbents are expected to run again next November. This includes Gov. Ned Lamont, Lt. Gov Susan Bysiewicz, Attorney General William Tong, Comptroller Sean Scanlon, Secretary of State Stephanie Thomas, and Treasurer Erick Russell.

If anyone decides not to run, it will open up a competitive Democratic primary, but it is not expected.

Republicans have not won a statewide race since 2006, and will have to field numerous strong candidates if they hope to take any statewide race. They lost every race except for Treasurer in 2022 by double-digits, and still lost Treasurer by nearly 8 points. It will take a lot for Republicans to do well in what is expected to be a blue year. Republicans might again take a similar strategy to 2024, where they put all their resources on CT’s 5th Congressional District Race, but a blue year may make that strategy unsustainable.

Remember to expect the unexpected in politics.

It will be another crazy year of elections. I deeply appreciate everyone who reads the blog. This was the first year of the blog project, and I will call it a success. We hope to continue to grow the blog, and hope to gather more readers, and expand the coverage on Connecticut Elections.

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  Thanks for Reading!

Democratic Challenger, Dr. David Chess, speaking outside the Baldwin Center in Stratford on Wednesday, October 29th, 2025. Credit to Jim Shannon/Hearst Connecticut Media

Table of Contents

Overview

And…..just like that, it’s almost Election Day! Though there is no presidential race or statewide contests this year. Almost every town in Connecticut is holding local elections for powerful positions of authority, such as Mayors, Selectmen, Town Councils, and Boards.

National pundits are paying attention to the off-year gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey. People want a sense of the political environment in the first year of President Donald Trump’s second term. Sometimes, this allows for clues and a possibility of what to expect as we dive into midterms next year.

In addition, Democrats are looking for a way out after being locked out of power in Washington, D.C., post-2024 elections. The idea is that backlash against Donald Trump can help them win in cities and towns across the country. In addition, the Democratic Party is split into factions arguing about how to guide strategies across the country; some hope elections on Tuesday will give some hints on the issues to focus on.

Republicans are hoping to rack up wins after a great 2024 cycle. Though President Trump has lost support on economic and immigration polices, Republicans hope the gains they made with voters of color and young men can hold true in an off-year election, especially as some communities have moved rapidly to the right in the Trump era. This change allows multiple opportunities in local races across the country.

The Connecticut Environment

Connecticut is known for its split-ticket tendencies in local races. Though Democrats dominate federal races in the state in recent decades, Republicans hold several offices in towns Democrats win on the federal level.

In an article from the Hartford Courant, Democrats are expecting to hold seats for mayor in Stamford, Newington, and Danbury, as well as First Selectman in Litchfield and Colchester. They also expect to hold town council majorities in Wethersfield and Coventry.

Republicans, according to Connecticut Republican Party Chair Ben Proto, expect to do well in Torrington, Wallingford, Brookfield, East Haven, Fairfield, Old Lyme, East Lyme, East Hartford, and Danbury.

In an effort to win over voters, Democrats have been tying Republicans to Trump, whose approval rating has dropped throughout the year. Republicans have argued that voters are focused on local issues and that national politics doesn’t play a role in the day-to-day operations of cities and towns.

Many cities have competitive races. Though I can’t cover all of them here, I would love to highlight a few for readers to take a look at. Let’s Dive In!

Danbury

2023 Race

In 2023, Democrats dramatically shifted political power in Connecticut’s largest swing city, Danbury.

Led by Democrat Roberto Alves, who won the mayoral race in a rematch, Democrats flipped five at-large seats and eleven ward seats. Democrats won the mayoral race in Danbury for the first time in two decades.

Alves lost narrowly in 2021 against former Republican mayor Dean Esposito by two points 49-51. Alves won a rematch in 2023 against Esposito in a similarly close 51-49 victory.

2025 Campaign

Incumbent mayor Alves is running for a second term against Republican City Councilman Emile Buzaid Jr.

Though Alves has outraised Esposito by a large margin, holding a $260,000 advantage three weeks prior to the election, another close race is expected in the most competitive race of the state’s largest cities.

Alves has risen as a statewide figure in his short tenure. Governor Ned Lamont tapped Alves as the chair of the Connecticut Democratic Party after the 2024 elections. Alves succeeded Party Chair Nancy DiNardo, who was expected to step down in January 2025.

Lamont was showing City Democrats that he is paying attention to the Democrats’ issue of a drop in the urban vote. He showed he would invest in the party’s infrastructure, tapping the mayor of a diverse city. Lamont said Alves knew the party structure well and liked him as a mayor and an executive with business experience.

During the campaign, Alves has promoted his bipartisan work and how he prioritizes listening to all voices in the community. Alves announced in September that he has Large B-Cell lymphoma, but said he continues to take his responsibilities seriously and said the prognosis was good.

Buzaid Jr. says Alves has failed to improve the city as taxes keep rising under his watch. His campaign is also focusing on creating a Department of Economic Development. This would restore rail service to NYC, promote workforce development, and have a budget to maintain fund balance and credit rating. Alves pointed to millions in infrastructure improvements and bringing the city back from financial collapse.

Alves is favored for re-election due to his new position and his fundraising advantage. Buzaid can put up a good fight due to the City’s political lean, which was a 53-46 margin for Vice President Kamala Harris last year.

Stratford

Democratic Primary

Stratford had a Democratic Primary on September 9th, where Physician David Chess won in an overwhelming 87-13 landslide over Businesswoman Linda Manos. It was the largest victory of the night.

Chess had the overwhelming support of the Democratic Town Committee, along with local politicians.

2025 Race

Republican Incumbent Laura Hoydick has found herself in a tough re-election campaign for a third term against Democratic challenger David Chess

Hoydick won in a landslide in 2021 for her second term, winning 63-37.

Hoydick has been popular while in office. A state representative before she won the mayoral race in a 50-44 victory against her Democratic challenger in 2017. Hoydick has routinely run over the federal lean of the town.

Stratford voted for Kamala Harris by a large 59-40 margin last year. A Trump presidency is bringing out Democrats, making this a competitive race. Many of them may be voting due to the national mood, as a protest against the President. Due to this, Hoydick might see a closer result, similar to the 2017 race. Either way, everyone in town is taking the race seriously. Stratford has led the state in early voting so far with 3535 voters! (As of Thursday)

Main Issues Facing Voters

The police and fire unions both endorsed the challenger Chess. The complaints they have are about pension benefits, as affordability ranks as a top issue in the race. Chess also received the endorsement from 3rd District Congresswoman Rep. Rosa DeLauro

Stratford taxes are also among the highest in the state. The Publication Only in Bridgeport discusses an expected reevaluation of properties expected in 2026. In addition, they also discuss that a poor economic future is predicted due to limited tax growth.

In a recent debate, Hoydick argued that she has been a stabilizing and unifying leader of the shoreline community. She also said that she loves her job, and explained how remarkable the town is. Chess said he wasn’t planning to run for mayor, but explained he felt the town has been squandered due to its economic development.

Chess also advocated for an independent finance committee, disagreed about the development of a 154-unit housing complex, and took issue with council-approved plans to develop Riverside Park. Hoydick defended her tenure, explaining that taxes had not risen during her tenure and said the council’s plans made sense.

When Chess had complaints about education, Hoydick noted that she doesn’t have control over the school district, as the elected school board oversees that.

Chess and Hoydick did agree on protecting the town’s natural beauty and environment. In addition, they were both open to finding more sites for residents to play Pickleball.

What to Expect on Tuesday

This is a difficult race to predict. A town at the local level that is open to voting for Republicans, but backs Democrats solidly at the federal level. It will come down to turnout. If Democrats come out at high turnout, motivated by Republican control nationally, then Chess will win. If enough Democrats continue to cross over and vote for Hoydick, she’ll make it to a 3rd term.

I’m leaning Hoydick, who has long outrun the federal toplines in the town. However, I would not be surprised if Chess wins on Tuesday.

Milford

2025 Race

Milford is a true 50/50 town. Kamala Harris won the town by a mere 0.55% , 47.3-46.7.

Incumbent Mayor Tony Giannattasio is facing former mayor Rich Smith. Smith was appointed in 2023 to succeed Mayor Ben Blake, who resigned to take a job as an administrative law judge. Smith did not run in 2023.

Giannattasio won his first term in November 2023, defeating Democrat Kerri Rowland 52-48.

Smith not running for the top post in 2023, Democrats say, might have cost them the mayorship. Smith, though, came around and realized how much he enjoyed his time in the mayor’s change and started planning a comeback. He has been a longtime staple in Milford Democratic politics, serving as the DTC chair for years and as chair of the police commission.

Smith and Giannattasio have argued about the reasons for tax increases. Smith says he’ll keep them lower than the mayor’s GOP budgets, but Giannattasio says it’s lower than Smith calculated, and it’s covering costs ignored by the previous administration.

Gianntassio says he is focused on the economic growth of Milford, establishing 55+ housing, and properly funding city departments. He said his increase of funding for Milford’s police and fire departments, and the sale of city-owned properties, have helped the town.

Smith says he will drive down tax increases and stabilize the city’s economy. He says his private sector experience will help him manage the budget better to cut costs efficiently.

Recent History of Mayoral Races

Milford, like many towns in the state, finds it very difficult to dislodge an incumbent mayor. Though President Joe Biden won a larger 55-44 victory in 2020, Democrat Mayor Ben Blake won a massive 69-31 victory in 2021 and a 67-33 victory in 2019. The town then flipped to Republican Giannattasio 52-48 when Blake did not run again.

Similarly, in 2009, Incumbent Republican Mayor James Richtelli Jr won a large 60-27 victory for a 5th term. He did not run again in 2011, and Blake flipped the town back 56-42 against Republican Bernard Joy.

Two things could happen: Giannattasio wins a 2nd term, like many of his predecessors, or Smith pulls an upset, and a result similar to the federal toplines would occur.

I am leaning towards Giannattasio, though I don’t think the margin would be as large. However, I would be surprised if Smith pulls an upset, based on the history of Milford elections, as it seems they generally re-elect their incumbents. Smith, though, might have a unique opening as someone who served as mayor for a few months. Also in 2016, Hillary Clinton won a similar margin to Kamala Harris in the town of Milford, winning by a mere 0.8%, suggesting that the town’s shift to the right from 2020 isn’t a permanent change, and voters clearly are willing to vote for either party.

Newtown

2025 Race

Republican incumbent First Selectman Jeff Capeci is running for a second term against Democrat Bruce Walczak. Walczak is also running on the Independent Party ballot line.

Their running mates for Selectman, Capeci, is running with Republican Charlie Gardner. Walczak is running with Democrat Paul Lundquist.

Capeci was the leading Republican who chaired the town’s legislative council prior to his election as First Selectman. Capeci has served in a variety of elected roles, including the Board of Selectmen and the Charter Revision Committee. He has a background in engineering career manufacturing software development.

Capeci, a 29-year resident of Newtown, says he will focus on maintaining fiscal responsibility and transparency by expanding Newtown’s commercial and industrial grand list through smart, sustainable development. Capeci mentions the revitalizations of Fairfield Hills, preserving Newtown’s rural charm, enhancing public safety, and infrastructure.

Walczak is a businessman and entrepreneur. Walczak cites his business experience on his website, supervising teams of 250+ employees, as a reason why he can manage Newtown’s $40 million budget. He has served as an elected member of the Newtown Police Commission and other boards, such as the Business Advisory Commission and the Economic Development Commission.

Walczak, a 34-year resident of Newtown, says he is running because he cares deeply about the town and the people. Walczak is also running on being “laser-focused” on the few things that matter to every resident, such as budgets, infrastructure, schools ,and smart development. He cites the Republicans’ board not being focused and looking at book bans instead.

Prior Mayoral Races and Political Environment

Walczak, notably, was on the ballot for First Selectman all the way back in 2009 as an Independent Candidate. He got 27.7% of the vote, splitting the vote with Democrat Gary Fetzer. Republican Mayor Patricia Llodea won re-election.

I thought this race could be competitive, as in the 2023 open race for First Selectman, Capeci won by 123 votes, in a close 51-49 victory against Democrat Dan Cruson. This was also the first contested race in Newtown since 2017.

Newtown voted 54-44 for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.

Though Walczak has run as an independent multiple times with limited success, being on both the Democratic and Independent ballot lines can bring him some appeal. I think the 2023 narrow victory for Capeci makes him vulnerable, but he is the incumbent now. This race has not gotten as much media coverage as other local races, meaning maybe Capeci is seen as more favored than the toplines suggest, but we will have to see what happens.

Brookfield

2025 Race

Democratic incumbent First Selectman Steve Dunn is running for a non-consecutive fifth term in the town of Brookfield. He is running alongside Democratic incumbent Bob Belden.

Dunn is facing off against Republican Karl Hinger. Hinger is running alongside Republican Alan Donnelly for the position of Selectman.

Hinger mentioned during his nomination at the Republican caucus, his top issues are cutting back on overdevelopment and large-scale multifamily housing. He is also focused on fiscal responsibility to be “smarter without debt“. Hinger has been a member of Brookfield’s Zoning Board of Appeals since 2021.

Dunn’s Non-Consecutive Terms in Office

Dunn was Brookfield’s First Selectman from 2015 to 2021. In 2019 and 2021, he won by large margins. He won 63-37 in 2017 and 56-44 in 2019.

Dunn, however, was knocked out of the town’s top position in 2021, where he lost 47-51 against US Army Veteran Republican Tara Carr. Carr won and was determined to bring Brookfield’s historical Republican roots by keeping taxes low, supporting education, and small business.

Carr’s tenure did not long as First Selectwoman. Dunn won his job back as First Selectman in 2023, winning comfortably 54-46.

This is one of the towns that Trump carried last year in the Presidential election, where Democrats hold the top position in the town. Trump won 51-47.

Due to the back-and-forth change of party control, I expect a close race in this Trump town. However, I think Dunn can win a 5th term as he will benefit from increased Democratic turnout similar to 2023 and 2017. Dunn has proven, though, that incumbents who won by comfortable margins two years prior, however, aren’t safe. So like every other race on the docket, an upset can’t be ruled out.

We will see what happens!

East Granby

2025 Race

Finally, the town of East Granby.

Republican Selectwoman Eden Wimpfheimer is running for a third term against Democratic challenger Jason Hayes.

Hayes is leading a 17-candidate Democratic slate heading into Tuesday’s election, where Democrats have a candidate for every office on the ballot. Wimpfheimer is running alongside Republican Todd Zessin. Hayes is running alongside Democrat Amanda Thompson for Selectman.

Wimpfheimer, a 25-year resident, previously served on the town’s select board. In addition, she works as a realtor since 1999 with Berkshire Hathaway.

Wimpfheimer is running on town progress by revitalizing infrastructure, supporting local business growth, and making East Granby an attractive place to live.

Hayes is running on issues that affect the town’s safety and financial well-being, according to his website. This includes questionable land sales to family and former business associates, the deficit in the town’s general fund due to years of inaction, and examples of financial liability to the town itself.

Hayes’s background is not in politics. He has spent 30 years working as a Celebrity Wig Artist, working with networks like CBS, NBC, and Netflix. Before his career, he worked in the insurance industry. Hayes believes that the town’s well-being is not being represented or protected under the current Selectwoman Wimpfheimer.

This race is expected to be very close. Wimpfheimer has won by identical 52-48 majorities in both 2021 and 2023. Prior to Wimpfheimer’s 2021 victory, Democrat First Selectman James Hayden won a large 60-40 victory in 2019. Wimpfheimer has performed close to the federal topline in this election, with no increase after her 2021 victory. Kamala Harris won East Granby 52-46 last year.

Local Democrats Coming to Campaign

Democrats, sensing an opportunity, have been pulling out all the stops to help bring Hayes over the top. Some of the biggest names in the state, including Senator Chris Murphy, Lieutenant Governor Susan Bysiewicz, former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, and State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest, have been campaigning alongside Hayes.

Hayes has been open about his dislike of Donald Trump and the MAGA movement, saying he’s not apologizing for those beliefs as a gay candidate. Hayes, who moved into the community with his husband, continued to get more involved; he wanted the top spot in the town.

Incumbent Wimpfheimer has been focused on her record, which includes an increase of the grandlist, a new town manager, an affordable housing plan, and revitalizing infrastructure. She also cited her dislike of negative campaigning, saying I have nothing to say about my opponent.

Wimpfheimer said she focuses on local government when asked how she feels about President Trump.

Hayes seems to be attracting some energy for his campaign, not only bringing out notable state Democrats, but a fiery speech talking about how he would battle Republicans and his outfit while campaigning with a leather motorcycle jacket, brown boots, and jeans, not looking like a typical politician.

Bronin marked how Hayes is not afraid to go everywhere, and how he has a lot of energy.

What to Expect on Tuesday

An incumbent like Wimpfheimer is difficult to knock out. She seems not to be focused on MAGA politics, but the governing of the town. That can help her stay ahead in a Harris +6 town. However, she has had two consecutive narrow victories, and this race seems to have attracted more attention.

Currently, I’m leaning towards Hayes for an upset against Wimpfheimer. East Granby has had, as the Hartford Courant describes it, a “mixed voting history”. It has voted for Democrats on the presidential level in 2016, 2020, and 2024. Though Wimpfheimer has won two terms as a Republican, Democrats controlled the First Selectman position for 25 years. At the same time, Republicans have dominated races in the state legislature. It’s a close race, but local dynamics and turnout will play a large role in this race, which makes me lean toward Hayes, due to an expected increase in Democratic turnout, but it will be close.

Conclusion

I want to be clear, there are way more competitive races in the state than I could write about myself.

But this is just a few I wanted to bring to your attention. Some races I mentioned may not end up being competitive. But some towns, I think, will be competitive. It’s hard to say what’s going to happen in certain towns and cities; sometimes turnout is not what is expected, or a town breaks a long-running pattern. However, it’s all very exciting.

There could be multiple upsets, surprise victories, and unexpected results. I’m excited to see what unfolds on election day!

Anything can happen.

Thanks for Reading!

New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart announced her exploratory campaign for governor on Jan 28th, 2025, at New Britain City Hall. Source: Connecticut Public Radio

Table of Contents

Overview

Fundraising reports for Q3 were due in early to mid-October for both statewide candidates and candidates for federal office. Finance reports give credentials to more serious candidates, demonstrating they have funds for increasingly expensive primary campaigns, and for candidates to demonstrate they are the ones to take the mantle for the party.

Q3 Finance Reports allow voters to see how candidates for governor are faring, including what is looking like a competitive Republican primary between New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart and State Senator Ryan Fazio. We will also look at State Rep. Josh Elliott’s campaign for governor.

Additionally, we are looking to see how viable Democratic primary challengers to Rep. John Larson are in CT-01.

Q3 Republican Primary for Governor Fundraising

Erin Stewart – $102,000
Overall Campaign – $350,000+

Ryan Fazio – $157,769

Republican Primary Governor Discussion

When Fazio launched his campaign, I was curious how the Republican coalitions would react around the state. Would they split between Stewart and Fazio, or would they consolidate behind Stewart? Based on fundraising and endorsements, it seems to be the former.

Fazio now has the most money raised by a Republican for a single quarter in the history of the state’s Citizens’ Election Program for public financing. Though a very specific accomplishment that may not mean a lot in the long run, it shows that he is able to raise enough money to compete against Stewart.

He has raised money from more than 1,000 individuals across 114 towns across the state.

The race has turned into a head-to-head, as Westport Selectwoman Jennifer Tooker dropped out of the race last month, after struggling to raise funds. She did not rule out running for another office on the ballot, however.

Stewart’s exploratory campaign has raised over $350,000 since her entry into the race in late January. She is still the frontrunner, as she has far more name recognition than Fazio. Her run for Lieutenant Governor in 2018 and being a mayor for more than a decade mean voters are more familiar with her. She has also been expected to run for governor for years, keeping her name in conversations for a long time.

The question still is, who can win over MAGA voters? Stewart and Fazio have both expressed support for Trump. Stewart told members of the Republican State Central Committee in April that her campaign would get the endorsement.

Fazio, in particular, made it a point not to mention Trump in his campaign last year in his Harris +16 state senate seat. That’s not too surprising, but Fazio has been more willing to talk about Trump while pursuing statewide office. He told guests at a fundraiser for Republican candidate for New Haven Mayor Steve Orosco last month that he voted for Trump, but emphasized a focus on local issues. Fazio’s endorsements from the state legislature, including firebrand Rob Sampson, show that Fazio also has some institutional support from conservative

As we have mentioned before, both Fazio and Stewart are aware of the power of a Trump endorsement, even in a blue state like Connecticut. In addition to how the CT Republican Party has failed to get their preferred candidates over the line in a Republican primary. Trump’s late endorsement of businesswoman Leora Levy in the 2022 US Senate Race gave her the necessary boost to beat out State House Minority Leader Themis Klarides.

Fundraising has shown it will be a competitive race, as we head into next year, we will get a clear look to see at how voters feel between the two candidates.

Q3 Democratic Primary Governor Fundraising

Josh Elliott – $45,834

Is Elliott Viable against Lamont?

State Rep. Josh Elliott has raised just above $45,000 in his campaign for governor. Governor Ned Lamont has not confirmed he would run for a 3rd term, though he is expected to announce his campaign after local elections on November 4th.

Lamont garnered the ire of statewide progressives when he vetoed two bills, one that would provide funds for striking workers, and an affordable housing bills over concerns about how local control would work. Progressives, angry about the bill that was expected to pass, told the media that Lamont would get a challenge from the left.

Elliott, who entered the race in July, has not garnered a lot of attention in his bid, however. Though there is still plenty of time before the late-summer primary, Lamont’s veto did not lead to an overwhelming string of donations protesting him.

A poll from UNH in September demonstrated some of Elliott’s struggles. 71% of voters did not know about him to give an opinion. And the ones that did, his approval was -6, with 5% approval, 11% unfavorable.

Polling has shown that Lamont is still popular, with the same UNH poll showing Lamont with a +18 Job Approval rating.

Elliott also needs to change the narrative, as only 20% of voters said that Lamont’s views were to the right of their own. This included a majority of both socialists (82%) and progressives (53%). On the question if Lamont deserves to be re-elected, it was 43% yes, 40% no. But 62% of Democrats said that Lamont deserves to be re-elected, only 19% said he doesn’t.

It is important to note that this was only one poll, but it reinforces the narrative that Lamont will be difficult to beat.

What Josh Elliott still has in his favor is some support from the state legislature, notably from many other progressives. Looking through his donation list, Elliott has received donations from 1 state senator and 11 state representatives.

The list includes

State Sen. Saud Anwar (D-South Windsor)
State Rep. Mary Fortier (D-Bristol)
State Rep. Nick Gauthier (D-Waterford)
State Rep. Eleni Kavros DeGraw (D-Avon)
State Rep. Sarah Keitt (D-Fairfield)
State Rep. Renee Muir (D-Deep River)
State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest (D-West Hartford)
State Rep. Laurie Sweet (D-Hamden)
State Rep. Robin Comey (D-Branford)
State Rep. Frank Smith (D-Milford)
State Rep. Anne Hughes (D-Easton)
State Rep. Mary Welander (D-Orange)

The 2026 Environment

The 2026 environment for Democrats seems to be leaning more towards anti-establishment/anti-incumbent. There is definitely an energy for a more aggressive posture from some Democrats. But Elliott needs to find a way to garner more attention, either through social media or otherwise. He also needs to find more national or statewide groups to endorse him, as they might be able to help him out with fundraising. It might be a long shot, but even trying to get an endorsement from a progressive member in Congress. Anything to bring some momentum and attention to his campaign.

Elliott will need a lot of money if he faces the wealthy Lamont. Elliott did tell the New Haven Independent in an interview in early September that he has enough delegates to force a primary and that Lamont is not as popular as people believe. He also mentioned he won’t pursue a primary “if he fails to win the convention outright”. He noted he promised his family that he wouldn’t go through a Line B candidacy unless the results are close.

It’s hard to say how much it matters if Elliott does not fully commit to a primary. It is not uncommon for legislators to form exploratory committees and not go to the primary if they don’t think they can win. Elliott faced the same issue when he ran for Secretary of State in 2022. Once he lost at the convention and didn’t have enough delegates to make the primary. Elliott was able to run for his state house seat, as town committee endorsements for his state house seat took place after the convention. A similar thing can happen in 2026.

Elliott also said he didn’t want to risk his legislative position in the State House, so we will see if the race gets closer for Elliott to change his mind.

Q3 Fundraising Democratic Primary in CT’s 1st Congressional District

Luke Bronin – $1,192,798 (In 8 Weeks)
John Larson (Inc.) – $804,557
Jillian Gilchrest – $54,392 (In 4 Weeks)
Ruth Fortune – $41,353
Jack Perry – $28,810 (Did Take Out a $500k Loan) (9 Weeks)

Bronin Emerging as Main Challenger

Bronin’s fundraising brought him ahead of incumbent John Larson. Both have been trading barbs with each other.

Bronin has attacked Larson for taking PAC money and encouraged him not to do so. Larson has attacked Bronin for not actually representing a change at all. Larson and his team continue to say that Larson is the best person to represent the district.

He hasn’t exactly been enthusiastic about the prospect of fundraising. Something he hasn’t been forced to do for decades. He has complained that the money spent in Connecticut should be spent in swing districts across the country, not wasted here.

Bronin, however, raised $500,000 on the first day of his campaign and over a million for the quarter, putting him on par with many competitive campaigns across the country. With his fundraising, Bronin has established himself as Larson’s primary challenger.

Larson received $495,057 from individuals. He raised the additional $309,500 from PAC money. Bronin has raised all of his money from individuals. He has not spent much of his money yet.

Larson’s fundraising is expected to increase in Q4, and Bronin said he will likely be behind. He did say early fundraising shows “we’re going to have what we need to compete and make a powerful case for change,”.

Jillian Gilchrest’s Op-Ed

State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest said in a statement, “This fundraising pissing contest doesn’t surprise me, but bragging about how much money you can drag into politics is completely out of touch.” She also marked how the money should be used for other causes. She spent her first month in the race talking to voters.

Her comments did make sense, considering her paltry $54,000 fundraising. The amount is not nearly enough for a competitive Democratic primary in the Hartford Media market.

Though Gilchrest makes good points about the issues of how expensive it is to run for office. She also brought up the importance and need of public financing in Congressional Campaigns. Both her major opponents, Larson and Bronin, said they agree that the system needs to be reformed.

In her Op-Ed, Gilchrest notes that she would not have been able to run for office, especially against a 23-year incumbent, without Connecticut’s public financing system, the Citizens’ Election Program. She explains how the wealthy control our government, and the continuation of corruption, and how billionaires avoid paying taxes, making the rest of us pay more. Gilchrest also said she understood the importance of fundraising as a means to compete, but she won’t run playing by “old rules that got us in this mess in the first place”. She will raise money in a way that fits the character of the campaign.

Gilchrest has noted that instead of fundraising, she has spent her time going around the district and talking with residents. She did not ask people for money during her conversations, marking to change how politics works, “we need to elect people who think about politics differently”.

This contrasts with Bronin’s approach so far. Bronin isn’t a progressive insurgent in the mold of Gilchrest or Elliott, but he’s playing the traditional political game effectively — raising large sums quickly, cultivating credibility with national donors, and leveraging institutional networks. He’s not rejecting the system, just adapting it to appear reform-minded, notably by rejecting PAC money, unlike Larson. Ideologically, he’s not as left-leaning as Gilchrest, but sits somewhere between the state’s moderate establishment and its progressive base.

The Reality of Fundraising

Gilchrest is notable in her cause; she makes great points about the difficulties faced by first-time candidates. This is also why Gilchrest is still a dangerous candidate; she has the makings of what the Democratic Primary electorate is looking for in 2026, a progressive anti-establishment candidate. This is a mantle that she can take from Bronin, but the primary will come up quickly. They are also likely to split the vote at this rate from Larson.

However, she can’t ignore the realities of congressional fundraising. When Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez pulled off a shocking upset in 2018 against No. 4 House Democrat Joe Crowley, she raised around $300,000, less than 1/10 of Crowley’s chest.

AOC set up a shockwave of progressive challengers to come, a model that many hope to replicate. Though none have come near the scale of AOC’s upset, you need a few things to happen. Joe Crowley openly admits that he was not tuned into his district in 2018 and did not actively campaign during his primary campaign.

John Larson, on the other hand, has been barnstorming the district. Larson told the Courant that the challenges have made him more energetic, and have led Larson to frenzied campaigning, unlike he has done in years.

The point is, Gilchrest cannot ignore the realities of fundraising. Donors and national fundraisers need to hear about the candidate and their ideas. Also, understand that the candidate’s campaign is to be taken seriously. Gilchrest has the endorsement of Indivisible CT, a notable progressive group.

But despite her complaints about money, Democrats have notably outraised Republicans across the country in many races. Democrats know that backing down from spending would only fail to get their message out. For Gilchrest, I would argue that Progressive organizations, especially national ones, are stockpiled with money ready to spend on upstart progressive candidates, who would love a candidate like Gilchrest. They also have far more resources and can help nationalize the race.

AOC, who struggled fundraising in 2018, has raised nearly $10 million in Q1 of this year (nearly $21 million for the year) as a well-known figure going against President Trump. The opportunity is there.

Similar to what I explained about State Rep. Josh Elliott (who Gilchrest gave a donation too), she needs to tap into national groups and endorsements to garner some attention and momentum. Though it is good that she is communicating with people, garnering attention is important, and that will lead to funds without having to force the conversation.

Scenairos

Both Jack Perry and Ruth Fortune raised similar numbers. It is not too surprising that Gilchrest, Perry, and Fortune are struggling. They are not as well-known and represent local town offices. Though Gilchrest is a state representative, the issue is that Connecticut has some of the smallest state house districts in the country by population. Only 23,000 residents live in each district. Scaling up an effort to a 700,000+ person Congressional house district is not easy; it becomes an issue of name ID, especially as she is not that well-known outside of her hometown of West Hartford.

Fortune’s $40,000 is not bad, and honestly, more than I expected from Fortune, who only came into office as an appointed candidate last year. Perry has taken out a $500,000 loan, but how he will use his money will be the deciding factor for him. I have doubts that Fortune and Perry can make the ballot, but we will see what happens on that front.

There is still plenty of time for this race to change. All candidates will have to face a very energetic Larson and prove to voters that age concerns are enough to take out an incumbent. Gilchrest needs to garner attention and try to get more progressive groups to seize on the opportunity to back her, instead of Bronin, as Larson’s main challenger, and Larson himself, who is fairly progressive himself. The federal delegation is backing Larson, so they need to look to the state legislature, local offices, or start going to House or Senate members.

Bronin needs to continue fundraising, attacking Larson, but also come up with some policy points, as his name seems to be mentioned more in the national political media as a Democrat primarying an incumbent (Downballot and Former White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki’s Podcast, as some examples). He has to capitalize to ensure that he remains Larson’s main challenger. For Perry and Fortune, they need to garner more attention and differentiate themselves from other challengers.

It’s Larson’s race to lose! He’s the frontrunner.

It could be a two-way race, a three-way race, or even a larger field. But it seems highly unlikely that Larson won’t have at least one challenger on the ballot. We are still more than 6 months away from the convention and 9 months away from a primary, so a lot can change.

Thanks for Reading!

Barbara Smyth, Democratic nominee for Norwalk mayor, door-knocking with State Senate Majority Leader Bob Duff on September 8th, before the Democratic primary. Source: Bob Duff/Facebook

Table of Contents

Early Voting

Early Voting begins today, October 20th, for local municipal elections. This offers registered voters two weeks to cast ballots for local mayors, selectmen, council members, and board of education members ahead of Election Day. Election day will be on November 4th.

The times of Early Voting are listed below:

Mon Oct 20th to Mon Oct 27th, Oct 29th, Oct 31st to Nov 2nd – 10:00am to 6:00pm

Tuesday Oct 28th, Thursday Oct 30th – 8:00am to 8:00pm

Election Day – Nov 4th – 6:00am to 8:00pm

Early voting locations can be found here. Each town has one designated location for early voting.

Voter registration is offered at early voting sites, and absentee ballots can be requested by visiting myvote.ct.gov/getmyab.

Overview

Though I cannot cover all elections taking place on November 4th, I would love to dive into elections in the state’s six largest cities.

I will have another article later in the week discussing some competitive races across the state.

By population, the state’s largest cities are Bridgeport, Stamford, New Haven, Hartford, Waterbury, and Norwalk.

It is important to note that not every city or town has a mayoral race this year. In those cities, we will talk about council races and other local races if applicable.

Let’s dive in!

Bridgeport

Longtime incumbent Democrat Joe Ganim is not up for re-election this year. Ganim ran in four separate elections in 2023-24 to claim another term after his initial Democratic primary win was marked with ballot irregularities in a race that garnered national attention.

Secretary of State Stephanie Thomas launched a special advertising blitz to remind city residents how to properly cast their ballots. This is an effort to not have another election marked by allegations of ballot fraud. 13 Individuals have been charged in connection with the misuse of mail-in ballots in the last two mayoral elections. Thomas wants voters to know the legal rules of returning absentee ballots.

There are races this year for the positions of Board of Education, City Sheriff, and Councilmen.

There are also two charter revision questions. Question 1 asks voters to approve a charter amendment to strengthen ethics, reform civil service, and establish uniform standards for departments and boards. Question 2 asks voters to discontinue the election of the positions of Town Clerk, City Clerk, and Municipal Sheriffs by 2031, after which they will be filled by a non-partisan civil service selection process.

Board of Education

Bridgeport 2025 Ballot for Board of Education and City Sheriff. Source: Secretary of State

Bridgeport is a very Democratic city. Kamala Harris won here 73-26 last year. However, unlike some other towns, Independents have gotten a decent portion of the vote across all races, running ahead of the Republican ticket.

Mayoral challenger John Gomes was about 200 votes short of Joe Ganim on their election day bout as an independent. The Independent candidates for city sheriff got more votes than the Republicans also in 2023. Independents all got about 3,000 votes, while Republicans got around 1800 votes. The result was similar on the Board of Education.

This year, incumbents Joseph Sokolovic and Robert Traber are running on both the Independent and Working Families ballot lines.

Chair Jennifer Perez will run as a Democrat. She was named chair last year after former chairperson Christine Baptiste-Perez faced criticism and lost a vote. She was supported by Traber and Sokolovic, along with two other members. Democrats are basically a lock for the three majority seats available this election.

The two minority seats will be between the Republicans and incumbents Sokolovic and Traber. Joe Sokolovic won on the Working Families line 4 years ago, and Independent Willie Medina won 2 years ago. As seen in the 2023 results, Republicans have been lagging behind Independents for the last two seats. This year will be another test, but Sokolobic and Traber are likely favored.

Councilmen

Democrats are heavily favored in all council districts. Though they are independents running in some districts, they will struggle despite the controversies with some incumbent council members. Of the 13 individuals charged with the absentee ballot investigation, this includes incumbents Alfredo Castillo and Maria Pererira. Despite this, Pereria won her primary in September, and both have continued to win re-election despite their controversies and the ongoing investigation.

Stamford

Mayor

Incumbent Democrat Mayor Caroline Simmons is running for a second term. She faces Republican former Board of Education member Nicola Tarzia. Simmons will also be on the Independent Ballot line.

Simmons won a difficult 2021 campaign against Independent former MLB manager Bobby Valentine. After successfully primarying Incumbent Mayor David Martin in a landslide 63-36 victory. Simmons won a close 53-47 victory against Valentine in the general election.

Simmons and her faction have won multiple battles on issues ranging from charter revisions to city committee primaries. She and her allies were also able to oust two local state representatives who disagreed with them. In the recent Democratic primaries, Simmons endorsed allies all won their primaries, as she has successfully installed her allies in all committees across the town through multiple primary elections.

At a recent debate, Simmons and Tarzia both said they were interested in developing the South End of the city. A question on the train station in the south end, Simmons talked about continuing parking opportunities and rezoning land around the station to create new housing. Tarzia mentioned how he said there should also have been more amenities around the station.

Tarzia, a former member of the board of education for a decade (from 2000 to 2004, and 2016 to 2022), told the CT Examiner how the city’s government is a monopoly dominated by Democrats, and due to that, the party dominance has meant the city government isn’t improving. He hopes to bring ‘balance’ and bring other voices into the mayoral-appointed committees.

Since this is a typical party-line race, unlike her 2021 race, Simmons is expected to easily beat Tarzia in this 63-36 Harris-won city. Pavia had optimism he could win in an upset, in his interview with the examiner. The last Republican to win the mayoral office in Stamford was Michael Pavia in 2009, who served for one term.

Boards/Town Clerk/Constable

There are several other races on the ballot in Stamford. This includes the Town Clerk, Board of Finance, Board of Education, Constable, and Board of Representatives.

Democrats are favored in the races for Town Clerk, Board of Finance, Board of Education, and Constables.

For the Board of Representatives, some districts are closer than others. In 2023, District 18 had a 7-vote margin of victory for Democrat Karen Camporeale against Republican Stephen Garst.

In 2021, there was a close race in District 17 where Democrat Bobby Pavia beat Republican Maria Fedeli 52-48, showing how it really depends on the district.

New Haven

Mayor

In New Haven, Democratic Incumbent mayor Justin Elicker is running fourth term against Republican challenger Steve Orosco.

Elicker will also be on the Working Families Ballot Line. Orosco will also be on the Independent Party Line.

This was the first time in his tenure that Elicker did not face a Democratic opponent in a primary.

At their September 30th debate, Elicker and Orosco discussed topics ranging from crime to affordable housing to federal government intervention.

Orosco said he intends to improve crime statistics by fulling staffing and funding the police department. He said, “Everything is a band-aid, we are not attacking the root of the problem,” while discussing why more police enforcement is needed. Orosco also discussed making sure Yale is accountable to pay more taxes. Elikcer said Yale has been accountable.

Elicker talked about the city’s ongoing effort to increase affordable housing.

On discussions about ICE, the two candidates varied. Orosco said he believes ICE activity will be a non-issue after recent changes on enforcement, and said he would accept help from the National Guard if needed. Elicker said ICE is not welcome to the city, and help from the National Guard is not needed or wanted.

Elicker is heavily favored to win a fourth term in one of the most liberal cities in the state. Kamala Harris won New Haven in an 81-17 landslide last year. The last time a Republican was elected mayor of New Haven was in 1953. Elicker has also never gotten less than 70% of the vote in his last three mayoral races.

Alderperson/City Clerk/Board of Education

Democrats are heavily favored to hold all of their seats. Republicans don’t hold any seats on the 30-member board of Alders.

Republicans are also only running candidates in Ward 3, Ward 8, Ward 12, Ward 13, Ward 18, and Ward 30.

The reddest Ward in New Haven is the 18th, but even the 18th Ward was 59-41 for Kamala Harris. This will likely be the most competitive race of the Alderperson races due to partisan lean, but Moore is expected to win. Zelma Harris, who lost to Moore in the September 9th primary, is on the ballot as a petitioning candidate.

An Independent is running in Ward 16, Rafael Funtes Jr.

There is a race for City Clerk between Democrat Michael Smart and Republican Deborah Reyes-Quinones. Smart is also on the Independent ballot line.

There is also a race for the Board of Education District 1 between Democrat Edward T Joyner and Republican John Carlson.

Democrats are favored in both races.

Hartford

Board of Education

There is only one race on the ballot in the state’s capital city. Hartford Mayor Arunan Arunanpalam won a 4-year term in 2023, so he won’t be on the ballot this year along with the rest of the council.

In the Board of Education race, the four candidates running are Democrats Francoise Deristel-Leger, Cristher Estrada-Perez, Tyrone Walker, and Working Families Candidate Shonta Browdy.

Voters can vote for up to 3 candidates, but since there are 3 majority seats and 1 minority seat, all four candidates will win. No Republicans filed for this office.

Waterbury

Democratic Incumbents Michael Dalton and Stephen Conway are both running unopposed for the positions of City Clerk and City Sheriff.

Incumbent Democratic Mayor Paul Perenerswki won’t be on the ballot this year, as he secured a four-year term in 2023.

Board of Aldermen/Board of Education

After a contentious primary on the Republican side, where seven of the ten endorsed Republican candidates prevailed over primary opponents, Republicans hoped to unite in the hope of making gains on the Board of Aldermen.

The current make-up of the fifteen-seat board is Democrats hold ten seats, Republicans hold three, an independent holds one, and an unaffiliated voter holds the last one.

In District 4, Republican incumbent George Noujaim and his running mate Paul Konas won their primary after not getting the Republican endorsement. Noujaim did not receive the endorsement of the Republican Town Committee because he was seen as “too cozy” with the Democratic majority. The 3rd challenger that will be on the ballot is Brian McEntree in the 5th district.

Though GOP chair of Waterbury, Dawn Maiorano, is hopeful to make gains on the boards, the issue is that Waterbury voters haven’t elected a Republican mayor or a Republican Board of Aldermen majority is the last 25 years. Republicans, though, see an opportunity since 4 Democratic incumbents on the Board of Aldermen, and 2 on the Board of Education, are not running again

In 2023, Democrats did the best in District 2 and District 5, winning by large margins. The margin in District 3 was smaller, but comfortable. Republicans did well in District 1 and District 4. The closest races will likely be in those two districts. 4 candidates are running in each district (Five in District 2), and the top 3 will win a seat on the board.

On the Board of Education, five seats are up for grabs. Six candidates are running: three Democrats and three Republicans. The top five of the six candidates will win a seat on the Board of Education.

Norwalk

Mayor

The marquee race on the ballot in Norwalk is the open-mayoral race being vacated by Democrat Harry Rilling, who is retiring. Democrat Barbara Smyth is facing off against Republican Vinny Scicchitano.

Common Council President Smyth won a tough Democratic primary against Common Council member Darlele Young by a mere 75-vote margin. She will also be on the Working Families ballot line.

Petitioning Candidates John Kydes and Erik Vitagilone will also be on the ballot. Kydes is a former council president.

At a recent debate with the four candidates, they shared their visions of the city’s future. Smyth noted how her experience in both the classroom (as a former teacher) and in city government gives her a unique perspective to understand the city’s needs. Scicchitano said he is there to represent the 40% of the community who feel like they are disenfranchised from the process. He said he was the most qualified to unify the community.

Vitaglione said he is there to represent the households that make less than $75,000 a year, the renters who are cost-burdened, and the residents who haven’t participated in city politics before. Kydes said he joined the race because he felt the city is going down the wrong path, and his experience is necessary.

They all cited affordability, education, and taxes among the city’s challenges. However, they had different approaches to some of the issues. On affordable housing, Vitaglione called for a more diverse array of “housing stock”. Kydes questioned how the new developments affect schools and affordability. Smyth proposed a housing consortium, Scicchitano said the city needs to define its goals before expanding any further.

Norwalk’s Democratic delegation endorsed Smyth for mayor, including State Senate Majority Leader Bob Duff.

Though Norwalk is also very blue at the federal level, voting for Kamala Harris by a 64-35 margin. In the 2023 mayoral race, Rilling won a 55-45 victory over Scicchitano. Since Scicchitano is running a second time, he might benefit from name recognition among voters. Smyth is still favored, but the mix of petitioning candidates along with a strong challenge from Scicchitano could lead to a closer race than expected.

Ballot Questions and Other Offices

Norwalk has a long two-page ballot this year. There are several races, including City Sheriff, Councilmen-At Large, Councilman, Board of Education, Constable, Taxing District Commissioner, and Treasurer.

The one race without much anticipation is for Incumbent Town Clerk Richard McQuaid. McQuaid is on both the Democratic and Republican ballot lines after being cross-endorsed, so he will be victorious on election day.

For the Councillmen and Board of Education, there is a slate of Independent candidates running. Though this could make the margins between Democrats and Republicans more competitive, during the 2023 race, however, the Independent candidates only got about 1% of the vote, far behind the other two parties on the ballot.

A district-by-district guide can be found here from the Publication Nancy on Norwalk.

There are also three ballot questions this year. There seems to be a movement in some cities to move elections to 4-year terms instead of two. This passed in New Haven last year, and some other towns also have these questions on their ballots. Question 2 will create a four-year term for Mayor and Town Clerk in 2029, and the Council in 2031. Another change on Question 3 will amend the charter to provide council members with compensation of 3% of the mayor’s budgeted salary from 2029.

Question 1 on the Charter Change is longer and includes a couple of changes, so I will put the text here below.

Democrats are favored in most races in Norwalk, though it will be interesting to see how the petitioning candidates do in the mayoral race.

Thanks for Reading!